Cited by 821Urban Heat Island MitigationClimate variability and modelsClimate Change and Environmental Impact

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Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects

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McCarthy, Mark P., Best, Martin J., Betts, Richard A.·2010·Geophysical Research Letters

DOI 10.1029/2010gl042845

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Abstract

Urbanisation is estimated to result in 6 billion urban dwellers by 2050. Cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing, and localised effects from urbanisation such as the urban heat island. An urban land‐surface model has been included in the HadAM3 Global Climate Model. It shows that regions of high population growth coincide with regions of high urban heat island potential, most notably in the Middle East, the Indian sub‐continent, and East Africa. Climate change has the capacity to modify the climatic potential for urban heat islands, with increases of 30% in some locations, but a global average reduction of 6%. Warming and extreme heat events due to urbanisation and increased energy consumption are simulated to be as large as the impact of doubled CO 2 in some regions, and climate change increases the disparity in extreme hot nights between rural and urban areas.

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Background
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“Temperature changes induced by urbanization have been widely investigated and documented by many studies, with consistent qualitative results [McCarthy et al., 2010; Feng et al., 2012; Argüeso et al., 2014; Georgescu et al., 2014].”
Result
Habitat and species identity, not diversity, predict the extent of refuse consumption by urban arthropods
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Background
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Background
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Background
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Background
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Background
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Background
Characteristics of the mean radiant temperature in high latitude cities—implications for sensitive climate planning applications
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“microclimate around the sensor changes in such a way to cause the city observations to further diverge from temperatures at nearby rural locations [Jones and Lister, 2010], or the nature of urban land use leads to an amplifying of warm events whose frequency may change with time [McCarthy et al., 2010].”
BackgroundInfluential
An indoor–outdoor building energy simulator to study urban modification effects on building energy use – Model description and validation
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“With ongoing urbanization and at the same time, the effect of climate change, future scenarios predict an exacerbation of UHI in cities [3].”
Background
Characteristics of summer heat stress in China during 1979‒2014: climatology and long-term trends
Luo, M., & Lau, N. (2019) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04871-5 · Cited by 68
Heat exposure during outdoor activities in the US varies significantly by city, demography, and activity
Hoehne, C. G., Hondula, D. M., Chester, M., Eisenman, D. P., Middel, A., Fraser, A. M., Watkins, L., & Gerster, K. (2018) · Health & Place · doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2018.08.014 · Cited by 70
Investigation of urban heat island and climate change and their combined impact on building cooling demand in the hot and humid climate of Qatar
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Land Surface Temperature and Urban Density: Multiyear Modeling and Relationship Analysis Using MODIS and Landsat Data
Bonafoni, S., & Keeratikasikorn, C. (2018) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs10091471 · Cited by 67
“A previous work [25] highlighted the presence of a surface urban heat island (SUHI) pattern quite similar in winter and summer, more evident in daytime (mean peak of 6 ◦C) with respect to night-time (mean peak 1–2 ◦C).”
BackgroundInfluential
Contrasting changes of urban heat island intensity during hot weather episodes
Fenner, D., Holtmann, A., Meier, F., Langer, I., & Scherer, D. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab506b · Cited by 70
Detection and evaluation of a ventilation path in a mountainous city for a sea breeze: The case of Dalian
Guo, F., Zhang, H., Fan, Y., Zhu, P., Wang, S., Lü, X., & Jin, Y. (2018) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2018.09.010 · Cited by 65
Climate change risk responses in East African cities: need, barriers and opportunities
Kithiia, J. (2010) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2010.12.002 · Cited by 65
Global social and environmental change drives the management and delivery of ecosystem services from urban gardens: A case study from Central Coast, California
Lin, B. B., & Egerer, M. (2019) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.102006 · Cited by 69
Social Inequities in Urban Heat and Greenspace: Analyzing Climate Justice in Delhi, India
Mitchell, B. C., Chakraborty, J., & Basu, P. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph18094800 · Cited by 72
Spatiotemporal trends in human vulnerability and adaptation to heat across the United States
Sheridan, S. C., & Dixon, P. (2016) · Anthropocene · doi:10.1016/j.ancene.2016.10.001 · Cited by 64
Evaluation of climate change-resilient transportation alternatives using fuzzy Hamacher aggregation operators based group decision-making model
Deveci, M., Gökaşar, I., Mishra, A. R., Rani, P., & Ye, Z. (2023) · Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence · doi:10.1016/j.engappai.2023.105824 · Cited by 63
Simulating climate change in UK cities using a regional climate model, HadRM3
McCarthy, M., Harpham, C., Goodess, C. M., & Jones, P. D. (2011) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.2402 · Cited by 63
“, 2008), and as climate models achieve ever higher resolution, and world’s cities continue to expand, the influence of urbanisation on climate model projections becomes increasingly important to quantify (McCarthy et al., 2010).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citation
Daytime and nighttime urban heat islands statistical models for Atlanta
Chun, B., & Guhathakurta, S. (2015) · Environment and Planning B Urban Analytics and City Science · doi:10.1177/0265813515624685 · Cited by 62
“(Arnfield, 2003; Fujibe, 2009; Gaffen and Ross, 1998; McCarthy et al., 2010; Ren et al., 2007; Stone et al., 2010; Voogt and Oke, 2003; Wilby, 2003).”
Using phenology to assess urban heat islands in tropical and temperate regions
Jochner-Oette, S., Alves‐Eigenheer, M., Menzel, A., & Morellato, L. P. C. (2013) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3651 · Cited by 62
“The examination of the UHI effect and associated aspects is still relevant and important (McCarthy et al., 2010; Oleson et al., 2010), especially because an increasing percentage of the world population – particularly in the tropics – live in (mega)cities (Roth, 2007; Grimm et al., 2008) or are…”
Background
Future climate of Brussels and Paris for the 2050s under the A1B scenario
Hamdi, R., Giot, O., Troch, R. D., Deckmyn, A., & Termonia, P. (2015) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2015.03.003 · Cited by 62
“In their study, McCarthy et al. (2010) included an urban land surface scheme (Best et al., 2006) within HadAM3.”
BackgroundMethod
Simulating the Inter-Building Effect on energy consumption from embedding phase change materials in building envelopes
Han, Y., & Taylor, J. E. (2016) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2016.03.001 · Cited by 62
The role of building occupants' education in their resilience to climate-change related events
Pisello, A. L., Rosso, F., Castaldo, V. L., Piselli, C., Fabiani, C., & Cotana, F. (2017) · Energy and Buildings · doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.08.024 · Cited by 60
The Heat Exposure Integrated Deprivation Index (HEIDI): A data-driven approach to quantifying neighborhood risk during extreme hot weather
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Hourly air temperature projection in future urban area by coupling climate change and urban heat island effect
Shen, P., Wang, M., Liu, J., & Ji, Y. (2022) · Energy and Buildings · doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112676 · Cited by 60
Urban water capacity: Irrigation for heat mitigation
Wang, C., Wang, Z., & Yang, J. (2019) · Computers Environment and Urban Systems · doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2019.101397 · Cited by 61
Driving Factors of Land Surface Temperature in Urban Agglomerations: A Case Study in the Pearl River Delta, China
Liu, W., Meng, Q., Allam, M., Zhang, L., Hu, D., & Menenti, M. (2021) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs13152858 · Cited by 63
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Background
Urban atmospheric environment and human biometeorological studies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Ndetto, E. L., & Matzarakis, A. (2014) · Air Quality Atmosphere & Health · doi:10.1007/s11869-014-0261-z · Cited by 59
“Climate change and urbanisation are the two of the most recent factors affecting urban climate in most cities (McCarthy et al. 2010).”
Background
Identification of fine scale and landscape scale drivers of urban aboveground carbon stocks using high-resolution modeling and mapping
Mitchell, M. G. E., Johansen, K., Maron, M., McAlpine, C., Wu, D. S., & Rhodes, J. R. (2017) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.255 · Cited by 59
Monitoring and characterizing multi-decadal variations of urban thermal condition using time-series thermal remote sensing and dynamic land cover data
Xian, G., Shi, H., Zhou, Q., Auch, R. F., Gallo, K. P., Wu, Z., & Kolian, M. J. (2021) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2021.112803 · Cited by 60
GIScience can facilitate the development of solar cities for energy transition
Zhu, R., Kwan, M., Perera, A. T. D., Fan, H., Yang, B., Chen, B. Y., Chen, M., Qian, Z., Zhang, H., Zhang, X., et al. (2023) · Advances in Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.adapen.2023.100129 · Cited by 58
Land Surface Temperature Responses to Land Use Land Cover Dynamics
Setturu, B., Rajan, K. S., Ramach, & ra, T. V. (2013) · Geoinformatics & Geostatistics An Overview · doi:10.4172/2327-4581.1000112 · Cited by 58
Effectiveness of free running passive cooling strategies for indoor thermal environments: Example from a two-storey corner terrace house in Malaysia
Tuck, N. W., Zaki, S. A., Hagishima, A., Rijal, H. B., Zakaria, M. A., & Yakub, F. (2019) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2019.106214 · Cited by 58
“To reduce the impact of heat waves, urban dwellers use 34 air-conditioning (AC) systems [2,3,4]; however, this considerably increases energy consumption [3] and indirect 35 increase in CO2 emissions through electrical power generation further exacerbates the global warming issue [1].”
Vulnerability to extreme weather events in cities: implications for infrastructure and livelihoods
Gough, Yankson, Wilby, R. L., Amankwaa, Abarike, Codjoe, Griffiths, Kasei, R. A., Kayaga, & Nabilse, C. K. (2019) · Journal of the British Academy · doi:10.5871/jba/007s2.155 · Cited by 58
“Urban populations and built environments are recognised ‘hot spots’ of vulnerability to climate change (McCarthy et al. 2010, Wilby 2007).”
Exploring the pattern of outdoor thermal comfort (OTC) in a tropical planning region of eastern India during summer
Das, M., & Das, A. (2020) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100708 · Cited by 57
Amplified Increases of Compound Hot Extremes Over Urban Land in China
Liao, W., Li, D., Malyshev, S. L., Shevliakova, E., Zhang, H., & Liu, X. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl091252 · Cited by 61
Thermal comfort in urban areas on hot summer days and its improvement through participatory mapping: A case study of two Central European cities
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Large humidity effects on urban heat exposure and cooling challenges under climate change
Yang, J., Zhao, L., & Oleson, K. W. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acc475 · Cited by 64
Engineering and Design of Halide Perovskite Photoelectrochemical Cells for Solar‐Driven Water Splitting
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Water nebulization to counteract urban overheating: Development and experimental test of a smart logic to maximize energy efficiency and outdoor environmental quality
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Authors: McCarthy, M. P., Best, M. J., & Betts, R. A.
Affiliations: Met Office (GB)
ORCID: McCarthy, Mark P.
Best, Martin J.
Betts, Richard A.
Venue: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 2010-05
Volume: 37
Issue: 9
ISSN: 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
1944-8007
DOI: 10.1029/2010gl042845
OpenAlex: W1622515456
Semantic Scholar: 92ce681105fa8e4139db43b8bd4c25997e3b2766
Cited by: 821
References: 34
Citations by year: 2026: 35 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 77 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 96 · 2020: 77 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 46 · 2017: 48 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 33 · 2014: 35 · 2013: 32 · 2012: 28
FWCI: 24.81
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 7 d)
Locations: Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
Funders: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/E017398/1)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: urban heat island, climate change impacts on cities, urbanization, HadAM3, radiative forcing, heat waves, urban energy consumption, population growth, Middle East, Indian subcontinent, East Africa

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Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects

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