Cited by 821Urban Heat Island MitigationClimate variability and modelsClimate Change and Environmental Impact

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Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects

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McCarthy, Mark P., Best, Martin J., Betts, Richard A.·2010·Geophysical Research Letters

DOI 10.1029/2010gl042845

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Abstract

Urbanisation is estimated to result in 6 billion urban dwellers by 2050. Cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing, and localised effects from urbanisation such as the urban heat island. An urban land‐surface model has been included in the HadAM3 Global Climate Model. It shows that regions of high population growth coincide with regions of high urban heat island potential, most notably in the Middle East, the Indian sub‐continent, and East Africa. Climate change has the capacity to modify the climatic potential for urban heat islands, with increases of 30% in some locations, but a global average reduction of 6%. Warming and extreme heat events due to urbanisation and increased energy consumption are simulated to be as large as the impact of doubled CO 2 in some regions, and climate change increases the disparity in extreme hot nights between rural and urban areas.

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“…the relatively rapid increase observed in T min HEAT at several study locations is partly attributable to urbanisation effects as found for elsewhere (Hausfather et al. 2013; Jiang et al. 2020; Liu et al. 2022), although this hypothesis requires testing (Chapman et al. 2017; McCarthy et al. 2010).”
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“Early global climate simulations prescribed AHF as a constant to assess atmospheric model sensitivities, neglecting its spatial heterogeneity and temporal variations (e.g., Block et al., 2004; McCarthy et al., 2010; Washington, 1972) (Figure 1).”
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Authors: McCarthy, M. P., Best, M. J., & Betts, R. A.
Affiliations: Met Office (GB)
ORCID: McCarthy, Mark P.
Best, Martin J.
Betts, Richard A.
Venue: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 2010-05
Volume: 37
Issue: 9
ISSN: 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
1944-8007
DOI: 10.1029/2010gl042845
OpenAlex: W1622515456
Semantic Scholar: 92ce681105fa8e4139db43b8bd4c25997e3b2766
Cited by: 821
References: 34
Citations by year: 2026: 35 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 77 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 96 · 2020: 77 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 46 · 2017: 48 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 33 · 2014: 35 · 2013: 32 · 2012: 28
FWCI: 24.81
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 7 d)
Locations: Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
Funders: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/E017398/1)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: urban heat island, climate change impacts on cities, urbanization, HadAM3, radiative forcing, heat waves, urban energy consumption, population growth, Middle East, Indian subcontinent, East Africa

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