Cited by 821Urban Heat Island MitigationClimate variability and modelsClimate Change and Environmental Impact

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Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects

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McCarthy, Mark P., Best, Martin J., Betts, Richard A.·2010·Geophysical Research Letters

DOI 10.1029/2010gl042845

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Abstract

Urbanisation is estimated to result in 6 billion urban dwellers by 2050. Cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing, and localised effects from urbanisation such as the urban heat island. An urban land‐surface model has been included in the HadAM3 Global Climate Model. It shows that regions of high population growth coincide with regions of high urban heat island potential, most notably in the Middle East, the Indian sub‐continent, and East Africa. Climate change has the capacity to modify the climatic potential for urban heat islands, with increases of 30% in some locations, but a global average reduction of 6%. Warming and extreme heat events due to urbanisation and increased energy consumption are simulated to be as large as the impact of doubled CO 2 in some regions, and climate change increases the disparity in extreme hot nights between rural and urban areas.

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“In cities, energy consumption is the main source of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and an important driving factor for the thermal environment (McCarthy et al., 2010).”
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Background
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Background
Analysis of land use/land cover change, population shift, and their effects on spatiotemporal patterns of urban heat islands in metropolitan Shanghai, China
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“This definition is sometimes used in modeling studies [e.g., McCarthy et al., 2010], and therefore it is interesting to study the sensitivity of the results to the UHI definition.”
Method
Rising heat wave trends in large US cities
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“In accounting for both global climate change and urban heat island effects, McCarthy et al. (2010) project that the number of extremely hot nights will”
Background
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“Previous work has used modelled temperature on a 1 km grid for London to estimate UHI impacts on health by summing health effects by UHI zones depending on location [23] and investigated how the UHI may change in future, based on urban parameterizations added to global simulations from the HadAM3 model [24].”
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“…2 8 C. Western North America (WNA), Central America (CAm), South America (SAm), eastern North America, (ENA), Europe (EU), western Africa (WAf), Middle East (ME), eastern Africa (EAf), central Asia (CAs), eastern Asia (EAs), Australia/New Zealand (ANZ) (regions deﬁned as in McCarthy et al. 2010).”
Background
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Background
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BackgroundInfluential
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“A second important aspect for the urban environment is the projected climate change [ McCarthy et al ., 2010].”
Background
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Moist Heat Stress on a Hotter Earth
Buzan, J., & Huber, M. S. (2020) · Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences · doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060100 · Cited by 282
“…all studies we are aware of have concluded that future warming will increase the prevalence of these hot and harmful conditions (Meehl & Tebaldi 2004, Diffenbaugh et al. 2007, Diffenbaugh & Ashfaq 2010, McCarthy et al. 2010, Sherwood & Huber 2010, Willett & Sherwood 2010, Fischer et al. 2012).”
Background
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“It can bring many adverse effects to human and environment (e.g., increasing mortality and energy consumption, and affecting water and air quality), thus receiving increasingly attention globally (Cao et al., 2018; Grimm et al., 2008; Luo & Lau, 2018; McCarthy et al., 2010).”
Background
Towards Sustainable Development in Africa: The Challenge of Urbanization and Climate Change Adaptation
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“Additionally, the global increase in air temperature due to climate change is likely to intensify the risk to humans in urban agglomerations [2] and it is further suggested that climate change may amplify the UHI effect in some locations [3].”
Background
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Stone, B., Vargo, J., & Habeeb, D. (2012) · Landscape and Urban Planning · doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2012.05.014 · Cited by 220
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On the thermal performance of low income housing during heat waves
Sakka, A., Santamouris, M., Livada, I., Nicol, F., & Wilson, M. (2012) · Energy and Buildings · doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2012.01.023 · Cited by 215
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“Compared to rural areas, hot temperature risk is even higher in urban regions (Fischer et al., 2012; McCarthy et al., 2010; Mishra et al., 2015; Wouters et al., 2017; Ye et al., 2018).”
Background
The effects of 3D architectural patterns on the urban surface temperature at a neighborhood scale: Relative contributions and marginal effects
Sun, F., Liu, M., Wang, Y., Wang, H., & Che, Y. (2020) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120706 · Cited by 214
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“In addition, numerous studies [16,17] have also reported that land cover changes impact radiative, thermodynamic and hydrological processes that can lead to changes in local climate.”
Background
Mapping heatwave health risk at the community level for public health action
Buscail, C., Upegui, E., & Viel, J. (2012) · International Journal of Health Geographics · doi:10.1186/1476-072x-11-38 · Cited by 205
“People living in inner city areas that are subsequently exposed to the effects of UHI and air pollution are at increased heat-related health risk [17-19].”
Background
Assessment of land surface temperature variation due to change in elevation of area surrounding Jaipur, India
Khandelwal, S., Goyal, R., Kaul, N., & Mathew, A. (2017) · The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science · doi:10.1016/j.ejrs.2017.01.005 · Cited by 202
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Palme, M., Inostroza, L., Villacreses, G., Lobato-Cordero, A., & Carrasco, C. (2017) · Energy and Buildings · doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.03.069 · Cited by 194
The impact of built-up surfaces on land surface temperatures in Italian urban areas
Morabito, M., Crisci, A., Messeri, A., Orlandini, S., Raschi, A., Maracchi, G., & Munafò, M. (2016) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.029 · Cited by 196
Socioeconomic drivers of urban heat island effect: Empirical evidence from major Chinese cities
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Linking green infrastructure to urban heat and human health risk mitigation in Oslo, Norway
Venter, Z. S., Krog, N. H., & Barton, D. N. (2020) · Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136193 · Cited by 191
“At the same time, the effects of global warming and climate change are expected to be exaggerated in cities, particularly with respect to extreme heat wave events (McCarthy et al., 2010; Ortiz et al., 2019).”
Background
Effects of Urban Surfaces and White Roofs on Global and Regional Climate
Jacobson, M. Z., & Hoeve, J. E. T. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00032.1 · Cited by 180
“Recently, McCarthy et al. (2010) examined the global climate response of the addition of waste heat to urban areas but did not quantify the urban heat island effect due to such areas by removing urban land uses or examining climate responses outside of urban areas.”
Background
The Role of Vegetation in Mitigating Urban Land Surface Temperatures: A Case Study of Munich, Germany during the Warm Season
Alavipanah, S., Wegmann, M., Qureshi, S., Weng, Q., & Koellner, T. (2015) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su7044689 · Cited by 179
“The problem for sustainable development of cities is certainly how to adapt them to more frequent heat waves, which are potentially expected due to climate change [36].”
Background
Avoided Heat-Related Mortality through Climate Adaptation Strategies in Three US Cities
Stone, B., Vargo, J., Liu, P., Habeeb, D., DeLucia, A. J., Trail, M. A., Hu, Y., & Russell, A. G. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100852 · Cited by 178
“The combined effects of urban heat island formation and the global greenhouse effect are projected to significantly increase the number of extreme heat events in urbanized regions [8].”
Background
Urban Climate Projection by the WRF Model at 3-km Horizontal Grid Increment: Dynamical Downscaling and Predicting Heat Stress in the 2070’s August for Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya Metropolises
Kusaka, H., Masayuki, H. A. R. A., & Takane, Y. (2012) · Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Ser II · doi:10.2151/jmsj.2012-b04 · Cited by 177
“Second, McCarthy et al. (2010) and Olsen et al. (2010) assessed the annual mean changes, whereas the current study focused on summer months.”
BackgroundInfluential
Examination of land use/land cover changes, urban growth dynamics, and environmental sustainability in Chittagong city, Bangladesh
Hassan, M. M., & Nazem, M. N. I. (2015) · Environment Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-015-9672-8 · Cited by 168
“Numerous studies have shown that urbanization, resulting in land cover change, has an enormous impact on the radiative, thermodynamic, and hydrological processes that can lead to a change in the local climate (McCarthy et al. 2010), in terms of, for example, temperature, precipitation, and cloudiness (Kaufmann et al.”
Background
Dominant control of agriculture and irrigation on urban heat island in India
Kumar, R., Mishra, V. K., Buzan, J., Kumar, R., Shindell, D. T., & Huber, M. S. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-14213-2 · Cited by 172
“We analysed the LST data for the three regions: (1) high built-up area of the city or urban core, (2) low built up area inside the city boundary (urban area), and (3) a non-urban area that was at a distance away from the urban-core boundaries or rural belt (Table S1).”
Method
Future cities and environmental sustainability
Riffat, S., Powell, R., & Aydın, D. (2016) · Future Cities and Environment · doi:10.1186/s40984-016-0014-2 · Cited by 165
“Abbreviations BedZED: Beddington zero energy development; EPBD: energy performance of buildings directive; ETT: evacuated tube transport; EU: European Union; GWP: global warming potential; IPCC: intergovernmental panel on climate change; PV: Photovoltaic; UA: urban area; UHI: urban heat island; UHIE: urban heat island…”
BackgroundInfluential
Nature of vegetation and building morphology characteristics across a city: Influence on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in London
Lindberg, F., & Grimmond, S. (2011) · Urban Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s11252-011-0184-5 · Cited by 163
“It is also suggested that climate change could magnify the urban heat island effect in some locations (McCarthy et al. 2010).”
Background
Examining the nexus between land surface temperature and urban growth in Chattogram Metropolitan Area of Bangladesh using long term Landsat series data
Roy, S., Pandit, S., Eva, E., Bagmar, M. S. H., Papia, M., Banik, L., Dube, T. J., Rahman, F., & Razi, M. A. (2020) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100593 · Cited by 163
Detecting multi-temporal land cover change and land surface temperature in Pearl River Delta by adopting local climate zone
Wang, R., Cai, M., Ren, C., Bechtel, B., Xu, Y. P., & Ng, E. (2019) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100455 · Cited by 162
Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research
van Ruijven, B. J., Levy, M. A., Agrawal, A., Biermann, F., Birkmann, J., Carter, T. R., Ebi, K. L., Garschagen, M., Jones, B., Jones, R. N., et al. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0931-0 · Cited by 164
“Projections of access to public health and health care services and burdens of diseases are relevant for vulnerability and adaptation assessments (McCarthy et al. 2010; van Lieshout et al. 2004).”
MethodInfluential
A vast increase in heat exposure in the 21st century is driven by global warming and urban population growth
Klein, T., & Anderegg, W. R. L. (2021) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2021.103098 · Cited by 160
Impact of urbanization on abundance and phenology of caterpillars and consequences for breeding in an insectivorous bird
Seress, G., Hammer, T., Bókony, V., Vincze, E., Preiszner, B., Pipoly, I., Sinkovics, C., Evans, K. L., & Liker, A. (2018) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.1730 · Cited by 155
Perception and preference of trees: A psychological contribution to tree species selection in urban areas
Gerstenberg, T., & Hofmann, M. (2015) · Urban forestry & urban greening · doi:10.1016/j.ufug.2015.12.004 · Cited by 149
“Trees’ cooling effects in urban areas will become more important given the impact of climate change (McCarthy et al., 2010).”
Background
Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate
Alizadeh-Choobari, O., & Najafi, M. S. (2017) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3602-4 · Cited by 149
“The stronger upward trend of the minimum temperature than the maximum which has been attributed to the urban development is consistent with previous studies (e.g., Karl et al. 1984, 1993; McCarthy et al. 2010; Argüeso et al. 2014; Alizadeh-Choobari et al. 2016a).”
Result
Seasonal hysteresis of surface urban heat islands
Manoli, G., Fatichi, S., Bou-Zeid, E. R., & Katul, G. G. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1917554117 · Cited by 148
Policy-relevant indicators for mapping the vulnerability of urban populations to extreme heat events: A case study of Philadelphia
Weber, S. A., Sadoff, N., Zell, E., & de Sherbinin, A. (2015) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.07.006 · Cited by 147
Seasonal dependence of the urban heat island on the street canyon aspect ratio
Theeuwes, N., Steeneveld, G., Ronda, R., Heusinkveld, B., Hove, L. V., & Holtslag, A. (2014) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.2289 · Cited by 134
“…the projected increase in frequency and intensity of periods of extreme heat due to climate change (Solomon et al., 2007; Fischer and Schär, 2010), urbanisation may pose serious challenges for cities regarding human thermal comfort and health (e.g. Kovats and Hajat, 2008; McCarthy et al., 2010).”
Background
Contrasts between Urban and Rural Climate in CCSM4 CMIP5 Climate Change Scenarios
Oleson, K. W. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00098.1 · Cited by 142
“Following the analysis in McCarthy et al. (2010a), Fig.”
Influential
Impact of Urban Cool Island measures on outdoor climate and pedestrian comfort: Simulations for a new district of Toulouse, France
Martins, T. A. D. L., Adolphe, L., Bonhomme, M., Bonneaud, F., Faraut, S., Ginestet, S., Michel, C., & Guyard, W. (2016) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2016.05.003 · Cited by 140
The variation of climate change impact on building energy consumption to building type and spatiotemporal scale
Huang, J., & Gurney, K. R. (2016) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.118 · Cited by 140
Interactions between urban vegetation and surface urban heat islands: a case study in the Boston metropolitan region
Melaas, E. K., Wang, J. A., Miller, D. L., & Friedl, M. A. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054020 · Cited by 139
“In Boston, general circulation models project that mean springtime temperatures will rise 2.4 °C–6.0 °C by the end of this century (Kirshen et al 2008, McCarthy et al 2010).”
BackgroundInfluential
Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems
IPCC (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157940.005 · Cited by 178
The State-of-the-Art of Urban Climate Change Modeling and Observations
Hamdi, R., Kusaka, H., Doan, Q., Cai, P., He, H., Luo, G., Kuang, W., Caluwaerts, S., Duchêne, F., Schaeybroeck, B. V., et al. (2020) · Earth Systems and Environment · doi:10.1007/s41748-020-00193-3 · Cited by 144
Urban-Hazard Risk Analysis: Mapping of Heat-Related Risks in the Elderly in Major Italian Cities
Morabito, M., Crisci, A., Gioli, B., Gualtieri, G., Toscano, P., Stefano, V. D., Orlandini, S., & Gensini, G. F. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0127277 · Cited by 148
“The decision to focus on urban areas stems from recent extreme-heat events causing serious health, economic and social problems worldwide (Europe, USA, Australia and Asia) with strong heat-impact due to global warming predicted in cities [26].”
Background
Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century
Fitzpatrick, M. C., & Dunn, R. R. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-08540-3 · Cited by 140
Effects of City Expansion on Heat Stress under Climate Change Conditions
Argüeso, D., Evans, J. P., Pitman, A. J., & Luca, A. D. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0117066 · Cited by 132
“Both phenomena—climate change and urban expansion— interactions are non-linear and their effects cannot be regarded as independent and additive [11, 12].”
Background
Urban climatology: History, status and prospects
Mills, G. M. (2014) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2014.06.004 · Cited by 131
Developing a 1 km resolution daily air temperature dataset for urban and surrounding areas in the conterminous United States
Li, X., Zhou, Y., Asrar, G., & Zhu, Z. (2018) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2018.05.034 · Cited by 133
Urban change as an untapped opportunity for climate adaptation
Egerer, M., Haase, D., McPhearson, T., Frantzeskaki, N., Andersson, E., Nagendra, H., & Ossola, A. (2021) · npj Urban Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s42949-021-00024-y · Cited by 130
The city and the coming climate: climate change in the places we live
(2012) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.50-1484 · Cited by 130
Consequences of a green image of drone food delivery services: The moderating role of gender and age
Hwang, J., & Kim, H. (2019) · Business Strategy and the Environment · doi:10.1002/bse.2289 · Cited by 128
Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves
Smid, M., Russo, S., Costa, A. C., Granell, C., & Pebesma, E. J. (2019) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010 · Cited by 146
Characterization of Energy Flux Partitioning in Urban Environments: Links with Surface Seasonal Properties
Loridan, T., & Grimmond, S. (2011) · Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology · doi:10.1175/jamc-d-11-038.1 · Cited by 124
“With an ever-increasing portion of the world’s population living in cities, interest in the impact of built environments on the local (and global) climate is rising (Grossman-Clarke et al. 2010; McCarthy et al. 2010).”
Background
Key Conclusions of the First International Urban Land Surface Model Comparison Project
Best, M. J., & Grimmond, S. (2014) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-14-00122.1 · Cited by 124
“Predictions of future climate suggest additional warming in urban environments ( McCarthy et al. , 2010, Oleson et al. , 2011).”
Self-citation
Global Mangrove Deforestation and Its Interacting Social-Ecological Drivers: A Systematic Review and Synthesis
Bhowmik, A. K., Padmanaban, R., Cabral, P., & Romeiras, M. M. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su14084433 · Cited by 120
“Global warming will cause an increase of about 25% in average global precipitation by 2050 [102], although the regional patterns will vary, i.”
Background
Spatiotemporal variation of landscape patterns and their spatial determinants in Shanghai, China
Feng, Y., Liu, Y., & Tong, X. (2017) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.12.034 · Cited by 117
“Landscape analysis is also affected by biophysical and humaninduced factors that may lead to variation in landscape patterns (McCarthy et al., 2010; Peng et al., 2017).”
Background
Long-term trends of surface and canopy layer urban heat island intensity in 272 cities in the mainland of China
Yao, R., Wang, L., Huang, X., Liu, Y., Niu, Z., Wang, L., & Wang, L. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145607 · Cited by 115
Preliminary study of the influence of the spatial arrangement of urban parks on local temperature reduction
Lin, B.-S., & Lin, C.-T. (2016) · Urban forestry & urban greening · doi:10.1016/j.ufug.2016.10.003 · Cited by 115
Assessing the vulnerability of urban forests to climate change
Ordóñez, C., & Duinker, P. N. (2014) · Environmental Reviews · doi:10.1139/er-2013-0078 · Cited by 112
“Not only do cities contain the majority of the world’s population (UN-HABITAT 2012), but their microclimatic envelope may enhance future temperature increases (e.g., McCarthy et al. 2010).”
Background
Assessment of three dynamical urban climate downscaling methods: Brussels's future urban heat island under an A1B emission scenario
Hamdi, R., de Vyver, H. V., Troch, R. D., & Termonia, P. (2013) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3734 · Cited by 114
“Daytime UHI seems to be substantially less affected by urbanization which is consistent with previous studies (Kalnay and Cai, 2003; Hua et al., 2008; McCarthy et al., 2010, Fischer et al., 2012).”
BackgroundResultInfluential
Interaction of urban heat islands and heat waves under current and future climate conditions and their mitigation using green and cool roofs in New York City and Phoenix, Arizona
Tewari, M., Yang, J., Kusaka, H., Salamanca, F., Watson, C., & Treinish, L. A. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf431 · Cited by 117
“Two studies by McCarthy et al (2010) and Oleson et al (2010) coupled a GCM with the SLUCM to examine the influences of urban geometry and anthropogenic heat emissions on UHI intensity.”
Method

Authors: McCarthy, M. P., Best, M. J., & Betts, R. A.
Affiliations: Met Office (GB)
ORCID: McCarthy, Mark P.
Best, Martin J.
Betts, Richard A.
Venue: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 2010-05
Volume: 37
Issue: 9
ISSN: 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
1944-8007
DOI: 10.1029/2010gl042845
OpenAlex: W1622515456
Semantic Scholar: 92ce681105fa8e4139db43b8bd4c25997e3b2766
Cited by: 821
References: 34
Citations by year: 2026: 35 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 77 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 96 · 2020: 77 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 46 · 2017: 48 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 33 · 2014: 35 · 2013: 32 · 2012: 28
FWCI: 24.81
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 7 d)
Locations: Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
Funders: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/E017398/1)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: urban heat island, climate change impacts on cities, urbanization, HadAM3, radiative forcing, heat waves, urban energy consumption, population growth, Middle East, Indian subcontinent, East Africa

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Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects

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