Cited by 821Urban Heat Island MitigationClimate variability and modelsClimate Change and Environmental Impact

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Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects

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McCarthy, Mark P., Best, Martin J., Betts, Richard A.·2010·Geophysical Research Letters

DOI 10.1029/2010gl042845

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Abstract

Urbanisation is estimated to result in 6 billion urban dwellers by 2050. Cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing, and localised effects from urbanisation such as the urban heat island. An urban land‐surface model has been included in the HadAM3 Global Climate Model. It shows that regions of high population growth coincide with regions of high urban heat island potential, most notably in the Middle East, the Indian sub‐continent, and East Africa. Climate change has the capacity to modify the climatic potential for urban heat islands, with increases of 30% in some locations, but a global average reduction of 6%. Warming and extreme heat events due to urbanisation and increased energy consumption are simulated to be as large as the impact of doubled CO 2 in some regions, and climate change increases the disparity in extreme hot nights between rural and urban areas.

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“Due to its potential to address a number of problems, including the reduction of CO 2 connected to global warming, production of renewable sources of energy, and problems with storage of energy, CO 2 converted into chemicals has recently attracted a lot of interest [8, 9, 14].”
Influential
Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Buildings—The Potential of Vertical Greenery: A Brief Review of Benefits and Challenges of Implementation
Theodoridou, I., Vatitsi, K., Stefanidou, M., Vanian, V., Fanaradelli, T. D., Macha, M., Zapris, A. G., Kytinou, V. K., Voutetaki, M. Ε., Rousakis, T. C., et al. (2025) · Urban Science · doi:10.3390/urbansci9100398 · Cited by 13
Impact of a Detailed Urban Parameterization on Modeling the Urban Heat Island in Beijing Using TEB-RAMS
Jiang, L., Lu, L., Jiang, L., Qi, Y., & Yang, A. (2014) · Advances in Meteorology · doi:10.1155/2014/602528 · Cited by 13
Lightning and climate: A review
Junior, O. P. (2013) · International Symposium on Lightning Protection (SIPDA) · doi:10.1109/sipda.2013.6729250 · Cited by 13
“Urban areas may play a key role in the climate change, in some cases producing an impact as large as the impact of doubling CO2 [16].”
Background
Smartphone App Brings Human Thermal Comfort Forecast in Your Hands
Heusinkveld, B. G., Sterenborg, G., Steeneveld, G., Attema, J. J., Ronda, R. J., & Holtslag, A. A. M. (2017) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0082.1 · Cited by 13
“Climate change (McCarthy et al. 2010, Coumou and Rahmstorf 2012, Coumou and Robinson 2013), urbanization-related heating [the urban heat island effect (UHI)], and recorded excess mortality during recent European heat waves generated an acute awareness for heat-related health risks.”
Background
Characteristics of spatio-temporal urban growth patterns due to the driving forces of urbanization:
Yılmaz, M., & Terzi, F. (2020) · International Review for Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development · doi:10.14246/irspsd.8.3_16 · Cited by 13
Spatiotemporal Change of Urban Water Bodies in Bangladesh: A Case Study of Chittagong Metropolitan City Using Remote Sensing (RS) and GIS Analytic Techniques, 1989–2015
Molla, M. H., Chowdhury, M. A. T., & Islam, A. R. M. T. (2020) · Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing · doi:10.1007/s12524-020-01201-9 · Cited by 13
Differences in Life History Traits in Rural vs. Urban Populations of a Specialist Ground Beetle, Carabus convexus
Magura, T., Mizser, S., Horváth, R., Nagy, D. D., Tóth, M., Csicsek, R., & Löveï, G. L. (2021) · Insects · doi:10.3390/insects12060540 · Cited by 13
“Urbanization is a human niche-creating activity, resulting in land take, resource concentration, and modulated environmental and ecological processes, from climatic regimes [5]”
Background
Temperature projection in a tropical city using remote sensing and dynamic modeling
Nichol, J. E., To, P. H., & Ng, E. (2013) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1748-2 · Cited by 13
“…used in IPCC AR4 climate projections (IPCC 2007) are at coarse spatial resolution of over 100 km, and although those proposed for AR5 in 2014 (McCarthy et al. 2010; Oleson 2012) will consider urbanization effects at city-wide level, they will not recognize intra-urban heterogeneity, for…”
Method
A Comprehensive Study of Spatiotemporal Variations in Temperature Extremes across China during 1960–2018
Zhao, N., & Chen, M. (2021) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su13073807 · Cited by 13
“Previous studies have enriched the evidence of the impact of urbanization on the climate record and its extremes [24,26,39].”
Background
A machine learning framework for urban heat mitigation in informal settlements: Climate-resilient planning in Kabul, Afghanistan
Hussainzad, E. A., & Gou, Z. (2025) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2025.106845 · Cited by 12
Individualized and Combined Effects of Future Urban Growth and Climate Change on Irrigation Water Use in Central Arizona
Wang, Z., & Vivoni, E. R. (2022) · JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association · doi:10.1111/1752-1688.13005 · Cited by 12
Spatio-temporal evolution of surface urban heat island over Bhubaneswar-Cuttack twin city: a rapidly growing tropical urban complex in Eastern India
Sethi, S. S., Vinoj, V., Gogoi, P. P., Landu, K., Swain, D., & Mohanty, U. C. (2023) · Environment Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-023-03254-5 · Cited by 15
“This further increases the vulnerability of urban areas to climate change and its impacts (Hoffmann & SchlüNzen, 2013; McCarthy et al., 2010; Oleson, 2012).”
Paradoxical behaviour of rainfall and temperature over ecologically sensitive areas along the Western Ghats
Mann, R., Saini, D., Sharma, S., Dhorde, A. G., & Gupta, A. (2023) · Environmental Monitoring and Assessment · doi:10.1007/s10661-023-12004-z · Cited by 12
“Hence, LULC change alters the climate locally, which in turn affects the global atmospheric circulation (Kulakowski et al., 2010; McCarthy et al., 2010; Weng et al., 2004).”
Eğirdir Gölü alansal değişiminin uzaktan algılama ve coğrafi bilgi sistemleri yardımıyla analizi
Mustafa Murat, K. A. L. E., & Erişmiş, M. (2024) · lnternational Journal of Geography and Geography Education · doi:10.32003/igge.1380588 · Cited by 12
Leveraging urban AI for high-resolution urban heat mapping: Towards climate resilient cities
Shaamala, A., Tilly, N., & Yiğitcanlar, T. (2025) · Environment and Planning B Urban Analytics and City Science · doi:10.1177/23998083251337864 · Cited by 14
“A signi ﬁ cant consequence of this growth is the replacement of natural landscapes with impervious surfaces, leading to altered urban climates (McCarthy et al., 2010; Zhang et al., 2013) and notably higher temperatures, especially in the late afternoon and evening.”
Climate change impacts on Taxus baccata distribution and conservation
Çetin, İ. Z., Özel, H. B., Varol, T., Cantürk, U., & Şevik, H. (2025) · Journal of Forestry Research · doi:10.1007/s11676-025-01893-0 · Cited by 12
“…change are interconnected challenges that threaten living organisms, ecosystems, and the planet’s balance of energy, water, carbon, and ecosystems, and are the most critical issues of the twenty-first century (Gritti et al. 2006; McCarthy et al. 2010; Chapman et al. 2017; Afifa et al. 2024).”
A Statistical Analysis of Extreme Hot Characteristics and their Relationships with Urbanization in Southern China during 1971–2020
Gao, H., Luo, Y., Jiang, X., Zhang, D., Chen, Y., Wang, Y., & Shen, X. (2021) · Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology · doi:10.1175/jamc-d-21-0012.1 · Cited by 12
Electrochemical conversion of CO2 using different electrode materials in an Li–K molten salt system
Eom, S., Na, S., Ahn, S., & Choi, G. (2022) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2022.123162 · Cited by 12
Ecosystem Services Provided by Urban Forests in the Southern Caucasus Region: A Modeling Study in Tbilisi, Georgia
Alpaidze, L., & Pace, R. (2021) · Climate · doi:10.3390/cli9110157 · Cited by 13
Climate Change Effects on the Quality of Different Crop Plants and Coping Mechanisms
Ali, A., Khan, M., Nadeem, M., Imran, M., Ahmad, S., Amanet, K., Mubeen, M. A., Hussain, S., Ali, M., Sultana, S. R., et al. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-26692-8_20 · Cited by 12
Changing return periods of weather-related impacts: the attribution challenge
Stott, P. A., Christidis, N., & Betts, R. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0265-8 · Cited by 12
Self-citation
Smart cool mortar for passive cooling of historical and existing buildings: experimental analysis and dynamic simulation
Rosso, F., Pisello, A. L., Castaldo, V. L., Cotana, F., & Ferrero, M. (2017) · Energy Procedia · doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.09.560 · Cited by 12
“This is particularly important since energy consumption is directly linked to emissions, which on their turn are among the causes of global warming [6,7] and Urban Heat Island Effect (UHIE) [8].”
Background
Modeling the urban climate of Budapest using the SURFEX land surface model driven by the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model results
Allaga-Zsebeházi, G., & Szépszó, G. (2020) · Időjárás · doi:10.28974/idojaras.2020.2.3 · Cited by 12
“McCarthy et al. (2010) simulated the global response of cities to doubling CO2 by inline coupling the MOSES (Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme) land surface model to the HadAM3 (Hadley Centre 1 SURFEX can be coupled to its driving model in two ways.”
Method
River regulation and resilience: an approach for the Yangtze watershed
Liu, C., Chai, Y., Zhu, B., Yang, Y., Deng, J., & Hu, Y. (2021) · Water Science & Technology Water Supply · doi:10.2166/ws.2021.035 · Cited by 12
Impacts of Continuously Increasing Urbanization Ratios on Warming Rates and Temperature Extremes Observed Over the Beijing Area
Jiang, S., Du, J., & Wei, Z. (2021) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2021jd034536 · Cited by 12
“The urban-rural differences in urbanization ratios lead to differences in energy release from urban materials during nighttime (McCarthy et al., 2010; Oke, 1982; X. Yang et al., 2011), which strongly affects nighttime UHIs (Oke, 1982), especially for Tmin at the urban-rural difference (Oke, 1982), since Tmin always oc…”
Background
The Fingerprint of Climate Change and Urbanization in South Korea
Nam, W., Baigorria, G. A., Hong, E.-M., Kim, T., Choi, Y., & Feng, S. (2018) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos9070273 · Cited by 12
Global Mangrove Deforestation and Its Interacting Social-Ecological Drivers: A Systematic Review and SynthesisPreprint
Bhowmik, A. K., Padmanaban, R., Cabral, P., & Romeiras, M. M. (2022) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0052.v1 · Cited by 12
An Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of LNG and HFO as Marine Fuels
Laugen, L. (2013) · BIBSYS Brage (BIBSYS (Norway)) · Cited by 12

Authors: McCarthy, M. P., Best, M. J., & Betts, R. A.
Affiliations: Met Office (GB)
ORCID: McCarthy, Mark P.
Best, Martin J.
Betts, Richard A.
Venue: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 2010-05
Volume: 37
Issue: 9
ISSN: 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
1944-8007
DOI: 10.1029/2010gl042845
OpenAlex: W1622515456
Semantic Scholar: 92ce681105fa8e4139db43b8bd4c25997e3b2766
Cited by: 821
References: 34
Citations by year: 2026: 35 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 77 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 96 · 2020: 77 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 46 · 2017: 48 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 33 · 2014: 35 · 2013: 32 · 2012: 28
FWCI: 24.81
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 7 d)
Locations: Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
Funders: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/E017398/1)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: urban heat island, climate change impacts on cities, urbanization, HadAM3, radiative forcing, heat waves, urban energy consumption, population growth, Middle East, Indian subcontinent, East Africa

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Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects

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