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Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects
Open accessAbstract
Urbanisation is estimated to result in 6 billion urban dwellers by 2050. Cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing, and localised effects from urbanisation such as the urban heat island. An urban land‐surface model has been included in the HadAM3 Global Climate Model. It shows that regions of high population growth coincide with regions of high urban heat island potential, most notably in the Middle East, the Indian sub‐continent, and East Africa. Climate change has the capacity to modify the climatic potential for urban heat islands, with increases of 30% in some locations, but a global average reduction of 6%. Warming and extreme heat events due to urbanisation and increased energy consumption are simulated to be as large as the impact of doubled CO 2 in some regions, and climate change increases the disparity in extreme hot nights between rural and urban areas.
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“During summer months, relatively large SUHI intensity is associated with increased local warming and extreme heat events in urban areas13,36,37.”
From Disproportionate exposure to urban heat island intensity across major US cities (2021) · cites this paper as [36]
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Projection of rural and urban human thermal comfort in The Netherlands for 2050
Molenaar, R. E., Heusinkveld, B. G., & Steeneveld, G. (2015) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4453 · Cited by 33
“Furthermore, it is rather uncertain to estimate the UHI effect for future conditions, because several studies report contrasting results concerning this trend (e.g. Wilby, 2003; Rosenzweig et al., 2005; McCarthy et al., 2010; Oleson et al., 2011; Oleson, 2012).”
ResultThe cooling effect of hybrid land-use patterns and their marginal effects at the neighborhood scale
Wang, Y., Sheng, S., & Xiao, H. (2021) · Urban forestry & urban greening · doi:10.1016/j.ufug.2021.127015 · Cited by 33
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“Global warming and climate change have a significant impact on the quality and liveability of cities, especially in urban environments [1].”
BackgroundEstimating urban LST using multiple remotely sensed spectral indices and elevation retrievals
Mushore, T. D., Mutanga, O., & Odindi, J. (2021) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2021.103623 · Cited by 33
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“Global climate models predict that the combination of future urbanization and climate change will increase the UHI effects by up to 30% with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [8].”
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Bassett, R., Young, P. J., Blair, G. S., Samreen, F., & Simm, W. (2020) · Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology · doi:10.1175/jamc-d-20-0059.1 · Cited by 34
“The UHII of a city may increase over time due to urbanization (Grossman-Clarke et al. 2010), climate change, or a combination (Wilby 2008; McCarthy et al. 2010; Zhao et al. 2014).”
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Estrada, F., & Pierre Perron, Z. (2021) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.14691 · Cited by 32
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Urban Heat Island and Local Climate Change
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Saini, V., & Tiwari, R. K. (2020) · Arabian Journal of Geosciences · doi:10.1007/s12517-020-05843-4 · Cited by 31
A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model
Yang, Y., Endreny, T. A., & Nowak, D. J. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/jgrd.50803 · Cited by 31
“…and topography, has a significant effect on microscale air temperature and humidity [Pielke, 2001; Weaver and Avissar, 2001; Lookingbill and Urban, 2003; Chun and Tamura, 2005; Solecki et al., 2005; Robitu et al., 2006; McCarthy et al., 2010; Loridan and Grimmond, 2012; Yao and Steemers, 2013].”
BackgroundDecadal variations in the nocturnal heat island of London
Wilby, R. L., Jones, P. D., & Lister, D. (2011) · Weather · doi:10.1002/wea.679 · Cited by 31
“There are also concerns that UHIs may intensify under future climate conditions, thereby amplifying heat stress on urban residents and habitats (Wilby, 2008; McCarthy et al., 2010).”
BackgroundEstimation of the Distribution of Global Anthropogenic Heat Flux
Chen, B., & Guangyu, S. (2012) · Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters · doi:10.1080/16742834.2012.11446974 · Cited by 31
“Cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas-induced radiative forcing and localized effects from urbanization, such as heat island (McCarthy et al., 2010).”
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“Increased urbanization contributes to environmental degradation, one of the primary drivers of climate change (Chen et al., 2006; McCarthy et al., 2010).”
BackgroundSouth African raptors in urban landscapes: a review
Sumasgutner, S. C., Sumasgutner, P., & Downs, C. T. (2021) · Ostrich · doi:10.2989/00306525.2021.1900942 · Cited by 34
“plastics, pesticides, heavy metals), as well as increased levels of sound and artificial light at night (Alberti et al. 2003; McCarthy et al. 2010; Dominoni et al. 2013).”
BackgroundMariyaselvakumar, M., Kadam, G. G., Mani, M., Srinivasan, K., & Konwar, L. J. (2022) · Journal of CO2 Utilization · doi:10.1016/j.jcou.2022.102326 · Cited by 31
Evaluating the effectiveness of spontaneous vegetation for stormwater mitigation on green roofs
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Leach, K., Montgomery, I. W., & Reid, N. (2015) · Mammal Review · doi:10.1111/mam.12035 · Cited by 30
“2011), or in human-modified habitats, which are already subject to significant threats and pressures (McCarthy et al. 2010).”
BackgroundUrban land planning: The role of a Master Plan in influencing local temperatures
Viegas, C. V., Saldanha, D. L., Bond, A., Ribeiro, J. L. D., & Selig, P. M. (2013) · Cities · doi:10.1016/j.cities.2013.05.006 · Cited by 30
“, 2011); urban geometry and morphology, related to the natural shape of the city (Shoshany & Goldshleger, 2002;Solecki & Oliveri, 2004; McCarthy et al., 2010; Emmanuel & Krüger, 2012; He et al., 2011; Stone, Vargo, & Habeeb, 2012); land sprawl based on densification (Hamin & Gurran, 2009; He et al.”
BackgroundInfluentialConcurrent Heat and Air Pollution Exposures among People Experiencing Homelessness
Tol, Z. V., Vanos, J., Middel, A., & Ferguson, K. M. (2024) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp13402 · Cited by 34
“30 As temperatures increase and poor urban air quality remains commonplace, 15,17 individuals experiencing homeless-ness will face more intense, prolonged periods of unhealthy living conditions in many locations.”
Climate Variability and Industrial-Suburban Heat Environment in a Mediterranean Area
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“Therefore, the location and climate of the surrounding cities and meteorological conditions play an important role in determining the UHI magnitude [19].”
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Territorial Energy Vulnerability Assessment to Enhance Just Energy Transition of Cities
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Importance of initial state and atmospheric conditions for urban land surface models’ performance
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“Combined with the increasing interest in the impact of climate change on the urban environment, this has led to the introduction of urban surfaces within the tiled land surface heterogeneity approach for climate models (e.g., Oleson et al. 2008a, McCarthy et al. 2010).”
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Mapping Land Surface Temperature Developments in Functional Urban Areas across Europe
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“Local studies especially demonstrate a development comparable to this study [63].”
ResultUrbanization effects on high-frequency temperature variability over South China
Tong, X., Wang, P., Wu, S., & Luo, M. (2022) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101092 · Cited by 28
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“Its intensity is likely to keep increasing in the future due to population and urbanization growth [2].”
BackgroundPlanning with urban climate in different climatic zones
Alcoforado, M. J., & Matzarakis, A. (2014) · Geographicalia · doi:10.26754/ojs_geoph/geoph.201057808 · Cited by 28
City limits: Heat tolerance is influenced by body size and hydration state in an urban ant community
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“Some citizens used these land uses as their second and rural house as mentioned in other resembling researches such as (Williams 1975; Banai 2005; McCarthy et al. 2010; Dienst et al. 2018).”
MethodFabeku, B. B., Balogun, I. A., Adegboyega, S. A.-A., & Faleyimu, O. I. (2018) · Atmospheric and Climate Sciences · doi:10.4236/acs.2018.83021 · Cited by 26
“The outcome of this transformation provides a cycle of mutually reinforcing feedbacks on the climate (surface temperature increase) of the region [2] [3] [4] [5].”
BackgroundWang, X., Zhang, B., Li, F., Xiang, L., Li, X., Wang, Y., Shao, R., Tian, J., & He, C. (2021) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-20-0125.1 · Cited by 26
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“Urban areas have larger areas of impervious land, higher emission of greenhouse gases and more anthropogenic heat and air pollution than rural areas, which all contribute to the phenomena of urban warming (Arnfield 2003; Cao et al. 2016; Duren and Miller 2012; McCarthy et al. 2010; Oke 1987).”
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Urban effects on summertime air temperature in Germany under climate change
Grossman‐Clarke, S., Schubert, S., & Fenner, D. (2016) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4748 · Cited by 25
“McCarthy et al. (2010) and Fischer et al. (2012) derive information from simulations with individual GCMs that consider sub-grid scale urban surfaces.”
BackgroundMethod“I Feel Suffocated:” Understandings of Climate Change in an Inner City Heat Island
Singer, M. C., Lara, J. E. H., & Raynor, A. (2016) · Medical Anthropology · doi:10.1080/01459740.2016.1204543 · Cited by 26
“Sidewalks, roads, and parking lots block heat and moisture from rising from the ground and dissipating into the air, a process known as sealing (Kalkstein and Green 1997; McCarthy, Best, and Betts 2010).”
BackgroundMetabolic heat production by human and animal populations in cities
Stewart, I. D., & Kennedy, C. A. (2016) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-016-1296-7 · Cited by 25
“This point deserves consideration in the international development of global and mesoscale climate models (e.g. Grimmond et al. 2010; McCarthy et al. 2010).”
BackgroundUrban resources limit pair coordination over offspring provisioning
Baldan, D., & Ouyang, J. Q. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-72951-2 · Cited by 25
Esteras‐Saz, J., de la Iglesia, Ó., Peña, C., Escudero, A., Téllez, C., & Coronas, J. (2021) · Separation and Purification Technology · doi:10.1016/j.seppur.2021.118793 · Cited by 25
Guo, K., Zhong, J., Xie, F., Zhu, L. F., Qu, Y., & Ji, X. (2021) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.7671 · Cited by 24
“The earth's temperature has increased by ~0.7°C over the past century, which may substantially alter the entire ecosystem and constitute a serious threat to global biodiversity (McCarthy et al., 2010).”
BackgroundInfluentialUrban emissions of water vapor in winter
Salmon, O. E., Shepson, P. B., Ren, X., Collow, A. B. M., Miller, M. A., Carlton, A. G., Cambaliza, M. O., Heimburger, A. M. F., Morgan, K. L., Fuentes, J. D., et al. (2017) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2016jd026074 · Cited by 25
“…for idealized cities [Oke et al., 1991], as well as the impact of observed urban vapor pressure enhancements (3 hPa) on the Göteborg, Sweden, UHI [Holmer and Eliasson, 1999], and the impact of increasing average global CO2 concentrations to 645 ppm on global megacity UHIs [McCarthy et al., 2010].”
BackgroundResultInfluentialSocial–Spatial Analyses of Attitudes toward the Desert in a Southwestern U.S. City
Andrade, R., Larson, K. L., Hondula, D. M., & Franklin, J. (2019) · Annals of the American Association of Geographers · doi:10.1080/24694452.2019.1580498 · Cited by 25
“As a result of global climate change, a growing proportion of people in cities will be exposed to extreme heat, drought, and cascading hazards (Turner et al. 2003; McCarthy, Best, and Betts 2010), with vulnerable groups being disproportionately affected (Boone 2010; Malakar and Mishra 2017).”
BackgroundImpact of urban growth in Delhi and It's Peri-urban environment on urban heat exposure
Mallick, S. K., Sahu, N., Das, P., Maity, B., Varun, A., Kumar, A., Keswarwani, R., Saini, A., & Rudra, S. (2024) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102010 · Cited by 24
Urbanisation’s contribution to climate warming in Great Britain
Bassett, R., Young, P. J., Blair, G. S., Cai, X.-M., & Chapman, L. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abbb51 · Cited by 27
Climate adaptation actions for urban forests and human health
Janowiak, M. K., Brandt, L. A., Wolf, K. K., Brady, M., Darling, L., Lewis, A. D., Fahey, R. T., Giesting, K., Hall, E., Henry, M., et al. (2021) · doi:10.2737/nrs-gtr-203 · Cited by 25
Impact of rainfall on air temperature, humidity and thermal comfort in tropical urban parks
Acero, J. A., Kestel, P. K., Dang, H. T., & Norford, L. K. (2024) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102051 · Cited by 23
Re-naturing Cities: Impact of Microclimate, Human Thermal Comfort and Recreational Participation
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Species-specific holistic assessment of tree structure and defects in urban Hong Kong
Chau, N. L., Jim, C. Y., & Zhang, H. (2020) · Urban forestry & urban greening · doi:10.1016/j.ufug.2020.126813 · Cited by 23
Horike, H., Kinoshita, T., Kume, A., & Hanba, Y. T. (2021) · Trees · doi:10.1007/s00468-021-02083-1 · Cited by 23
Urban-climate interactions during summer over eastern North America
Oh, S., & Sushama, L. (2021) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05852-3 · Cited by 23
Are There Impacts of Urban Heat Island on Future Climate Change?
Zongci, Z., Luo, Y., & Huang, J. (2013) · Advances in Climate Change Research · doi:10.3724/sp.j.1248.2013.133 · Cited by 23
“The former investigated urban heat island effect between doubled CO2 and the present concentration [McCarthy et al., 2010].”
BackgroundGEOPOLYMER CONCRETE AT AMBIENT AND ELEVATED TEMPERATURES: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND CHALLENGES
Tao, Z., & Pan, Z. (2019) · NED University Journal of Research · doi:10.35453/nedjr-stmech-2019-0007 · Cited by 24
Quantifying urban land cover change between 2001 and 2006 in the Gulf of Mexico region
Xian, G., Homer, C. G., Bunde, B., Danielson, P., Dewitz, J. A., Fry, J. A., & Pu, R. (2012) · Geocarto International · doi:10.1080/10106049.2011.652675 · Cited by 22
“Urban land cover is an important component of regional and global environmental change and has significant implications for a range of ecological, biophysical, social and climate consequences (Seto and Shepherd 2009, DeFries et al. 2010, McCarthy et al. 2010).”
BackgroundUrbanization effects on surface air temperature trends in Thailand during 1970-2019
Kachenchart, B., Kamlangkla, C., Puttanapong, N., & Limsakul, A. (2020) · Environmental Engineering Research · doi:10.4491/eer.2020.378 · Cited by 22
“or greater than that from greenhouse gas forced climate change [11, 12, 20-22].”
BackgroundSong, J., Wang, J., Xia, X., Lin, R., Wang, Y., Zhou, M., & Fu, D. (2021) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs13163180 · Cited by 23
“These impacts are expected to be more severe when compounded by global climate changes [13]; thus, better characterization and understanding of the UHI effects are critically important to support future climate mitigation actions and human adaptive strategies [3,4,14].”
BackgroundKrzeptowska-Moszkowicz, I., Moszkowicz, Ł., & Porada, K. (2022) · Land · doi:10.3390/land11050760 · Cited by 26
Urban night-sky luminance due to different cloud types: A numerical experiment
Lamphar, H. A. S., & Kocifaj, M. (2015) · Lighting Research & Technology · doi:10.1177/1477153515597732 · Cited by 22
Best, M. J., & Grimmond, S. (2015) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1554-3 · Cited by 22
“Also, the move towards more integrated impacts for climate change has seen a move away from the post processing of urban areas from climate change signals, to including cities within the climate change simulations themselves (e.g., Oleson et al. 2008, McCarthy et al. 2010).”
BackgroundSelf-citationMüller, R., Amar, A., Sumasgutner, P., Sumasgutner, S. C., & Downs, C. T. (2020) · Ornithological Applications · doi:10.1093/condor/duaa024 · Cited by 21
“Geophysical Research Letters 37. doi:10.1029/2010GL042845 McDonnell, M., and I. MacGregor-Fors (2016).”
BackgroundInfluentialCarbon Dioxide (CO2) Sequestration and Air Temperature Amelioration Provided by Urban Parks in Rome
Gratani, L., Catoni, R., Puglielli, G., Varone, L., Crescente, M. F., Sangiorgio, S., & Lucchetta, F. (2016) · Energy Procedia · doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2016.11.052 · Cited by 21
“The mean value was compared with the contemporary data from ARSIAL meteo station, which is located on the roof of a building, about 25 meters high; for this reason, all the data set has been brought to the ground level, adding 2°C to the values, in order to consider the Urban Heat Island effect [19, 20, 21].”
MethodImproving measurement technology for the design of sustainable cities
Pardyjak, E. R., & Stoll, R. (2017) · Measurement Science and Technology · doi:10.1088/1361-6501/aa7c77 · Cited by 20
“These fluxes are human generated fluxes that result from various process often related to combustion that can be important and are difficult to disentangle from other heat fluxes in the energy balance [2].”
BackgroundSystemic vulnerabilities of the global urban-industrial network to hazards
Shughrue, C., & Seto, K. C. (2018) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2293-0 · Cited by 21
Huo, F., Xu, L., Li, Y., Famiglietti, J. S., Li, Z., Kajikawa, Y., & Chen, F. (2020) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.688 · Cited by 23
“Since then, urban climatology has been drawing growing attention worldwide along side booming concerns with regional and global climate change (McCarthy, Best, & Betts, 2010), the environment and urban sprawl (Grimm et al., 2008; Paerl & Huisman, 2008).”
BackgroundUrban climate action plans in the United States: A textual content analysis and evaluation
Debbage, N., Atasoy, M., Mitra, C. Z., & Byahut, S. (2024) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2024.106095 · Cited by 20
Planning for a Cooler Future: Green Infrastructure to Reduce Urban Heat
Norton, B. A., Bosomworth, K., Coutts, A., Williams, N. S. G., Livesley, S., Trundle, A., Harris, R., & McEvoy, D. (2013) · RMIT Research Repository (RMIT University Library) · doi:10.13140/2.1.2430.1764 · Cited by 20
Ecological networks and corridors development in urban areas: An example of Tabriz, Iran
Mahmoudzadeh, H., Masoudi, H., جعفری, ف., Khorshiddoust, A. M., Abedini, A., & Mosavi, A. H. (2022) · Frontiers in Environmental Science · doi:10.3389/fenvs.2022.969266 · Cited by 20
“, 2019); disturbing natural and wildlife (Brown, 2019), (Mutuga, 2009); regional and global warming of climate (Grimmond, 2007; McCarthy et al., 2010; Wang et al., 2019).”
BackgroundAn urban-scale spatiotemporal optimization of rooftop photovoltaic charging of electric vehicles
Ji, N., Zhu, R., Huang, Z., & You, L. (2024) · Urban Informatics · doi:10.1007/s44212-023-00031-7 · Cited by 20
“In this context, it is imperative to shift energy supply from traditional fossil fuels to sustainable energy to address the issues caused by greenhouse gas emissions, such as global warming (McCarthy et al., 2010), air pollution (Zhang et al., 2023), and the heat island effect (Masson et al., 2014).”
Lombardo, F. T., & Ayyub, B. M. (2015) · ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part A Civil Engineering · doi:10.1061/ajrua6.0000812 · Cited by 20
“2009] contributes to further temperature forcings in the climate system (McCarthy et al. 2010), and increases the likelihood of additional energy usage and fatalities (McGeehin and Mirabelli 2001).”
BackgroundLi, M., Wu, W., Wang, J., Che, Z., & Xie, Y. (2016) · Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment · doi:10.1007/s00477-016-1238-2 · Cited by 20
“However, the growing negative impacts of climate change, sea level rise and rapid urbanization make coastal areas increasingly prone to natural disasters (McCarthy et al. 2010; Wang et al. 2012).”
BackgroundCan urban shrinkage contribute to mitigating surface air temperature warming?
Ma, F., & Yoon, H. (2024) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2024.105730 · Cited by 19
Heat stress mitigation by trees and shelters at bus stops
Lanza, K., Ernst, S., Watkins, K., & Chen, B. (2025) · Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104653 · Cited by 19
He, W., Guo, X., & Zhang, C. (2025) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su17104381 · Cited by 19
Syeda, A. Q., Castillo-Villar, K. K., & Alaeddini, A. (2025) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su17157040 · Cited by 22
Local Weather Types by Thermal Periods: Deepening the Knowledge about Lisbon’s Urban Climate
Reis, C., Lopes, A. M. S., Correia, E., & Fragoso, M. (2020) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos11080840 · Cited by 19
“Today, over half of the world’s population (55%) lives in urban areas and by 2050 there will be almost 70% of urban dwellers [9], which correspond to approximately 6 billion citizens [10].”
BackgroundGarcía, N. G., Fernández, J. M., & Fitz, C. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12187542 · Cited by 19
Metadata
- Authors
- McCarthy, M. P., Best, M. J., & Betts, R. A.
- Affiliations
- Met Office (GB)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2010-05
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 9
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1622515456
- Semantic Scholar
- 92ce681105fa8e4139db43b8bd4c25997e3b2766
- Cited by
- 821
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 35 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 77 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 96 · 2020: 77 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 46 · 2017: 48 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 33 · 2014: 35 · 2013: 32 · 2012: 28
- FWCI
- 24.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/E017398/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- urban heat island, climate change impacts on cities, urbanization, HadAM3, radiative forcing, heat waves, urban energy consumption, population growth, Middle East, Indian subcontinent, East Africa
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