Cited by 821Urban Heat Island MitigationClimate variability and modelsClimate Change and Environmental Impact

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Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects

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McCarthy, Mark P., Best, Martin J., Betts, Richard A.·2010·Geophysical Research Letters

DOI 10.1029/2010gl042845

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Abstract

Urbanisation is estimated to result in 6 billion urban dwellers by 2050. Cities will be exposed to climate change from greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing, and localised effects from urbanisation such as the urban heat island. An urban land‐surface model has been included in the HadAM3 Global Climate Model. It shows that regions of high population growth coincide with regions of high urban heat island potential, most notably in the Middle East, the Indian sub‐continent, and East Africa. Climate change has the capacity to modify the climatic potential for urban heat islands, with increases of 30% in some locations, but a global average reduction of 6%. Warming and extreme heat events due to urbanisation and increased energy consumption are simulated to be as large as the impact of doubled CO 2 in some regions, and climate change increases the disparity in extreme hot nights between rural and urban areas.

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“Moreover, the warmer and dryer impervious surface present in urban landscapes contribute to a phenomenon known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, which can raise temperatures up to four degrees Celsius within cities (Kłysik and Fortuniak 1999; McCarthy et al. 2010; Zipper et al. 2017).”
Background
Exploring energy poverty and potential retrofit scenarios of masonry residential stock in Mediterranean climate
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Background
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Background
Cogeneration and district heating networks: Measures to remove institutional and financial barriers that restrict their joint use in the EU-28
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Background
Climate Change: Nature and Emerging Trends
McCarthy, M. (2012) · doi:10.1002/9781444354539.ch2 · Cited by 3
Self-citation
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“…could lead to more frequent and severe weather events, including droughts and floods heightened water scarcity, and greater agricultural challenges, further complicating the management of water resources and food security posing significant threats to local communities and ecosystems [11–14].”
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“In New Caledonia, HWD has”
How cities are striving to cope with ever-increasing temperatures
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“Very hot or even record-high temperatures in dry areas are certainly expected and documented (McCarthy et al. , 2010; Hibbard et al. , 2017; IPCC, 2018).”
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“Because the global warming trends of greenhouse gases and local warming trends of urbanization tend to be in the same direction (McCarthy et al. 2010), it is quite difficult to separate them from each other.”
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“…higher temperatures compared to urban trends (Rana-galage et al. 2017; Chapman et al. 2017), temperature increases compared to seasonal averages (McCarthy et al. 2010), and hot spots surrounding lower temperature zones (Corburn 2009) which are common criteria for identifying urban heat islands.”
Leveraging an Urban Environmental Sensing Network to Improve Extreme Heat Resilience : Invited Paper
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Jiang, X., Li, M., Zhou, Y., Lu, Y., Wang, T., & Wang, W. (2025) · Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology · doi:10.1175/jamc-d-24-0198.1 · Cited by 2
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Comparative analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature changes between cities and mountains in China
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“According to the research by McCarthy et al. (2010), climate change increases the disparity in extremely hot nights between rural and urban areas.”
Background
The importance of geographers in the study of natural hazards
Lukić, T., Bjeljac, Ž., Đerčan, B., & Bubalo-Živković, M. (2013) · Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic SASA · doi:10.2298/ijgi1303147l · Cited by 2
“For example, climatological changes, caused by global warming up of the planet (Arnell, 1996; Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Whitmarsh, 2009; Meinshausen et al, 2009; McCarthy et al, 2010) had influence to have some natural hazards more often than they used to be before (McGuire, 2005; Smith, 2013).”
Background
Simulation du climat futur et des rendements agricoles en region Soudano-Sahelienne en Republique du Benin
Katé, S., Teka, O., Chabi, R. B. K., Djikpo, R., Ogouwalé, E., Tente, B. A. H., & Sinsin, B. (2017) · African Crop Science Journal · doi:10.4314/acsj.v25i4.2 · Cited by 2
“Elle est soumise à d’intenses variabilités des paramètres climatiques qui se manifestent par une mauvaise répartition dans le temps et dans l’espace des précipitations et par une hausse des températures (Lankao, 2010; McCarthy et al., 2010).”
Background
Predicting Urban Growth and Implication on Urban Thermal Characteristics in Harare, Zimbabwe
Mushore, T. D., Odindi, J., Mutanga, O., & Dube, T. J. (2018) · IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS) · doi:10.1109/igarss.2018.8517625 · Cited by 2
“Such increase may result in adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts on urban residents that include increased water use, energy cost for air conditioning and health risk due to pollution [3].”
Background
Eco-energy and urbanisation : messages from birds about wind turbine proliferation
Fox, A. D. (2024) · Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja · doi:10.60910/kkjr-4c0k · Cited by 2
Climate Integration in Sustainable Urban Planning
Lachir, A. (2021) · Advances in geospatial technologies book series · doi:10.4018/978-1-7998-8331-9.ch008 · Cited by 2
Urban Areas
Pincetl, S., Franco, G., Grimm, N. B., Hogue, T. S., Hughes, S. M., Pardyjak, E. R., Kinoshita, A. M., Jantz, P. A., & Gilchrist, M. (2013) · Island Press/Center for Resource Economics eBooks · doi:10.5822/978-1-61091-484-0_13 · Cited by 2
Senecio brasiliensis (Spreng.) Less. (Asteraceae), another potentially invasive alien species in Europe
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Regionalist principles to reduce the urban heat island effect
Icaza, L. E., & van der Hoeven, F. (2017) · Architecture and the Built Environment · doi:10.59490/abe.2017.20.3466 · Cited by 2
Finite element model updating of multi-span steel-arch-steel-girder bridges based on ambient vibrations
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“Being noticed since the last half-century, the influences of global warming on human society and the entire ecosystem have been recently assessed and reported [1, 2].”
Background
Urban Heat Islands
Voogt, J. (2014) · CRC Press eBooks · doi:10.1081/e-enra-120047640 · Cited by 2
Seasonal Urban Heat Island Observation from Remote Sensing by Using Google Earth Engine Over New Capital (IKN) East Kalimantan, IndonesiaPreprint
Tursilowati, L., Sunarya, R., Muzirwan, M., Susanti, I., Rahayu, S. A., Kartika, T., Suhermat, M., Aminuddin, J., & Arif, N. (2023) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202305.2099.v1 · Cited by 2
Building Envelope Design With PHASE-CHANGEMATERIALS (PCM).Preprint
Benachir, N., Farida, B., & Mouhib, T. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3307843/v1 · Cited by 2
Questioning the phenomenon of void in the built environment through a multidisciplinary perspective
Grabar, M., & Dupré, K. (2022) · International Journal of Architectural Research Archnet-IJAR · doi:10.1108/arch-01-2022-0025 · Cited by 1
Impact of urban heat island on the sea-land breeze around Incheon port area
Kwon, Y. (2024) · Journal of Climate Change Research · doi:10.15531/ksccr.2024.15.1.067 · Cited by 1
Research on the electric vehicles routing problem considering driving style
Cheng, X., Shi, L., Sun, Q., & Jv, R. (2023) · International Conference on Computer, Internet of Things and Smart City (CIoTSC) · doi:10.1109/ciotsc60428.2023.00010 · Cited by 1
Nanopaint application in residential buildings. A study of the effect of cool paint on cooling energy demand
Alchapar, N. L., & Balter, J. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-26512-9.00013-6 · Cited by 1
Blockchain, Internet of Things, AI, and Smart Factory Synergies for Secure Carbon Trading
Alfakihuddin, M. L. B., Poa, T. K. E., Tjhin, S., Setiawan, I., Sena, B., Marsahala, J. N., & Theresia, F. (2025) · Lecture notes in networks and systems · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-05802-7_31 · Cited by 1
Restoration outcome, perceived environmental quality, and greenspace characteristics: A path analysis of human-nature interaction
Probst, B. M., Burger, S., Arzberger, S., Annighöfer, P., Suda, M., & Egerer, M. (2026) · Urban forestry & urban greening · doi:10.1016/j.ufug.2026.129370 · Cited by 1
Identifying Spatial Heterogeneity in LCZ Impacts on SUHII and Corresponding Planning Strategies Using Coupled Spatial Autocorrelation and GWR Models: A Case Study of Berlin
Xie, C., Yan, M., Afshari, A., Cao, Y., Qin, Y., & Che, S. (2026) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs18121989 · Cited by 1
Consumption at what cost? Neighbourhood complexity and heat hazard
Lucarno, R., Inverardi, P. L. N., & Santini, É. (2026) · Cambridge Journal of Regions Economy and Society · doi:10.1093/cjres/rsag023 · Cited by 1
Comparative Analysis of Future Urban Thermal Comfort in Three Cities Considering Urbanization Under Multiple CMIP6 Scenarios
Jin, X., VARQUEZ, A. C. G., Khanh, D. N., Ihara, T., Itsubo, N., Kanda, M., & Junnaedhi, I. D. G. A. (2026) · Earth and Space Science · doi:10.1029/2025ea004856 · Cited by 1
“The interplay between global warming and urbanization raises a critical challenge for human society (Castells‐ Quintana et al., 2021; Helbling & Meierrieks, 2023; McCarthy et al., 2010; Moazzam et al., 2022; Wang et al., 2023).”
The Urban Building Community Model for Earth System Modeling: Model Formulation and Evaluation
Yuan, H., Dong, W., Liu, S., Zhang, S., Zhuo, L. I. U., Wei, N., Lu, X., Wei, Z., Li, X., & Dai, Y. (2026) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2026ms005793 · Cited by 1
“The impacts of urban climates at local and regional scales are becoming increasingly prominent, particularly regarding extreme weather and climate events occurring in urban areas (Bai et al., 2017; Chapman et al., 2017; Masson, Lemonsu, et al., 2020; McCarthy et al., 2010; Qian et al., 2022).”
‘Health-Oriented Agriculture’ for Nutritional Security versus Climate Change Risks in the Mediterranean Basin
Shapira, N. (2011) · World review of nutrition and dietetics · doi:10.1159/000327824 · Cited by 1
REMOTE SENSING MONITORING LARGE-SCALE REPETITIVE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
Vu, T. T., Wickramasinghe, D., Ahmed, M., & Maul, T. (2015) · Cited by 1
Die invloed van klimaatverandering op die Suid-Afrikaanse stad en voorgestelde aanpassings
Conradie, D. C. (2016) · Town and Regional Planning · doi:10.18820/2415-0495/trp68i1.3 · Cited by 1
Wpływ zróżnicowanej dynamiki zmian urbanizacyjnych na tendencje temperatury powietrza w aglomeracji warszawskiej w latach 1961–2010
Rozbicki, T., Kleniewska, M., Majewski, G., Rozbicka, K., & Gołaszewski, D. (2016) · Acta Geographica Lodziensia · Cited by 1
System dynamics modelling to study the impact of digital technologies on regional development
Andronikidis, A., Samara, E. T., Bakouros, I. L., Komninos, N., & Katsoras, E. (2021) · South-East Europe Design Automation, Computer Engineering, Computer Networks and Social Media Conference (SEEDA-CECNSM) · doi:10.1109/seeda-cecnsm53056.2021.9566262 · Cited by 1
“The need for this approach derived by the fact that RISs consist of multiple variables, each of which is associated with its own pace and direction of change, which are causally related to the production of patterns of change in each system [28].”
Background
Monitoring the evolution of drought conditions over Africa
Ebobenow, J., & Arreyndip, N. A. (2021) · IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science · doi:10.1088/1755-1315/958/1/012004 · Cited by 1
Perceived Effects of Rainfall and Temperature Variability on Yields of Cereal Crops in the Mion District of Northern Ghana
Shirazu, A., Doke, D. A., & Yahaya, A.-K. (2022) · Ghana Journal of Geography · doi:10.4314/gjg.v14i3.2 · Cited by 1
“For instance, access to credit, insurance policies, agricultural extension services, irrigation facilities and subsidies on inputs can influence farmer’s adaptation strategies (Mccarthy et al., 2010; Asfaw et al., 2015).”
Background
Urban Ecosystems
Zerbe, S. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-65658-7_19 · Cited by 1
Spatio-Temporal Variation in Land Use and Land Cover from 1988 to 2018: A Study of District Khairpur Mir’s, Pakistan
Panhwar, M. A., Anwar, M., & Maitlo, A. A. (2024) · Journal of Development and Social Sciences · doi:10.47205/jdss.2024(5-i)52 · Cited by 1
Rowali model for Sustainable Urban Green Infrastructure Governance
Sumaryana, H., Buchori, I., & Sejati, A. W. (2024) · International Review for Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development · doi:10.14246/irspsd.12.3_176 · Cited by 1
Predicting the future through observations of the past: Concretizing the role of Geosimulation for holistic geospatial knowledge
Estacio, I., Lim, C., Onitsuka, K., & Hoshino, S. (2024) · GEOMATICA · doi:10.1016/j.geomat.2024.100012 · Cited by 1
Surface exchange of energy and water budgets in urban canopies
Wang, Z. (2011) · Cited by 1
Cogeneration and District Heating Networks: Measures to Remove Institutional and Financial Barriers that Restrict Their Joint Use in the EU-28
Colmenar‐Santos, A., Borge-Díez, D., & Rosales-Asensio, E. (2017) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-57952-8_3 · Cited by 1
Analysis of the theoretical settlement scenario implemented by the municipal plans. the case study of the Romagna coast municipalities
Zullo, F., Fiorini, L., Marucci, A., & Romano, B. (2020) · Proceedings e report · doi:10.36253/978-88-5518-147-1.36 · Cited by 1
Ecological aspects of global climate change on urbanized territories
Rychak, N., & Kizilova, N. (2021) · Ecological Sciences · doi:10.32846/2306-9716/2021.eco.4-37.25 · Cited by 1
“Водночас загальне зростання чисельності насе - лення разом із розширенням використання житло - вої і комерційної землі призводить до перманент - ного зниження доступності сільськогосподарських земель [26; 27].”
Decarbonization of Summer Cooling Energy Demands of Buildings Employing Absorption Systems in the Framework of Climate Change in Italy
Salata, F., Falasca, S., Ciancio, V., & Grignaffini, S. (2021) · Journal of Solar Energy Research Updates · doi:10.31875/2410-2199.2021.08.7 · Cited by 1
“It, therefore, appears essential to identify ecocompatible solutions by converting the energy-intensive systems currently in use, while satisfying the energy requirements [8, 9].”
Background
Day Time Seasonal Variation of Ozone and Its Association with Methane at Different Pressures over Barrow, Alaska
Jaitawat, N., & Saraswat, V. K. (2022) · Atmospheric and Climate Sciences · doi:10.4236/acs.2022.122027 · Cited by 1
“Climate change is one of the major challenges for mankind and nature, which is affecting our lives [1].”
Background
Anthropogenic meso-meteorological feedbacks: a review of recent research
Гинзбург, А. С., & Demchenko, P. F. (2019) · Известия Российской академии наук Физика атмосферы и океана · doi:10.31857/s0002-351555694-113 · Cited by 1
Holism, Collective Intelligence, Climate Change and Sustainable Cities
(2019) · International Journal of Thermal and Environmental Engineering · doi:10.5383/ijtee.15.02.009 · Cited by 1

Authors: McCarthy, M. P., Best, M. J., & Betts, R. A.
Affiliations: Met Office (GB)
ORCID: McCarthy, Mark P.
Best, Martin J.
Betts, Richard A.
Venue: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 2010-05
Volume: 37
Issue: 9
ISSN: 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
1944-8007
DOI: 10.1029/2010gl042845
OpenAlex: W1622515456
Semantic Scholar: 92ce681105fa8e4139db43b8bd4c25997e3b2766
Cited by: 821
References: 34
Citations by year: 2026: 35 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 77 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 96 · 2020: 77 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 46 · 2017: 48 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 33 · 2014: 35 · 2013: 32 · 2012: 28
FWCI: 24.81
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 7 d)
Locations: Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
Funders: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/E017398/1)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: urban heat island, climate change impacts on cities, urbanization, HadAM3, radiative forcing, heat waves, urban energy consumption, population growth, Middle East, Indian subcontinent, East Africa

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Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects

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