Increasing magnitude of hurricane rapid intensification in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.
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Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered. Here we explore changes in RI magnitude over the 30‐year satellite period of 1986–2015. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much of the main development region, the 95th percentile of 24‐hr intensity changes increased at 3.8 knots per decade. In the western tropical Atlantic, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, trends are insignificant. Our analysis reveals that warming of the upper ocean coinciding with the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and associated changes in the large‐scale environment, has predominantly favored RI magnitude increases in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. These results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were devastated during the 2017 hurricane season.
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The magnitude of hurricane rapid intensification (increase in maximum wind speed of at least 25 kt in 24 h) has increased in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic since the 1980s.
“The magnitude of hurricane RI (increase in maximum wind speed of at least 25 kt in 24 h) has increased in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic since the 1980s (Balaguru et al., 2018).”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Balaguru et al., 2018
There is strong evidence linking decadal-multidecadal tropical Atlantic SST variability to hurricane activity, but the drivers of this SST variability are not well known.
“There is also strong evidence linking decadal-multidecadal tropical Atlantic SST variability to hurricane activity (Goldenberg et al., 2001;Latif et al., 2007;Balaguru et al., 2018), but the drivers of this SST variability are not well known (Yang, 1999;Chang et al., 2000;Tanimoto and Xie, 2002;Evan et al., 2011;Booth et al., 2012;Clement et al., 2015).”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Balaguru et al., 2018
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- Authors
- Balaguru, K., Foltz, G. R., & Leung, L. R.
- Affiliations
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories (US)
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA
- Corresponding author
- Balaguru, Karthik
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2018-05-03
- Volume
- 45
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 4238-4247
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2799590607
- Cited by
- 149
- References
- 61
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 4
- FWCI
- 6.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.osti.gov
- Licence
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Battelle (DE-AC05-76RL01830)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, upper ocean warming, tropical western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, 2017 hurricane season
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