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Cited by 47Climate variability and modelsGeology and Paleoclimatology ResearchMeteorological Phenomena and Simulations

Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming

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Geng, Tao, Cai, Wenju, Jia, Fan, Wu, Lixin·2024·Nature Communications
DOI 10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9PMC PMC11237138
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Abstract

Under transient greenhouse warming, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to increase pre-2100, accompanied by an easier establishment of atmospheric convection in the equatorial eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature (SST) warms faster than surrounding regions. After 2100, how ENSO variability may change remains unknown. Here we find that under a high emission scenario, ENSO variability post-2100 reverses from the initial increase to an amplitude far smaller than that of the 20 th century. The fast eastern warming persists and shrinks the equatorial Pacific non-convective area, such that establishing convection in the non-convective area, as during an El Niño, requires smaller convective anomaly, inducing weaker wind anomalies leading to reduced ENSO SST variability. The nonlinear ENSO response is thus a symptom of the persistent El Niño-like warming pattern. Therefore, the oscillatory ENSO impact could be replaced by that from the permanent El Niño-like mean condition with cumulative influences on affected regions.

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  • ENSO is an important driver of climate variability in the Amazon basin, influencing temperature, precipitation and ecosystem dynamics.

    “The ENSO is an important driver of climate variability in the Amazon basin, influencing temperature, precipitation and ecosystem dynamics [66][67][68] .”

    From Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models (2025) · cites this paper as [67]

    The Introduction calls ENSO a major mode of climate variability, and the Results section on a permanent El Niño-like state describes rainfall anomalies over eastern South America. The paper does not identify the Amazon basin or address ENSO’s effects on its temperature or ecosystem dynamics (searched: Amazon, ecosystem, temperature, South America). (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Recent studies suggest potential changes in ENSO variability and an increased occurrence of El Niño-like warming under sustained warming.

    “Recent studies on ENSO's long-term behaviour under sustained warming suggest potential changes in its variability and the increased occurrence of El Niño-like warming 67,68 .”

    From Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models (2025) · cites this paper as [67]

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Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Geng, T., Cai, W., Jia, F., & Wu, L.
Affiliations
  • Laoshan Laboratory (CN)
  • Xiamen University (CN)
  • Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
Corresponding author
  • Cai, Wenju
  • Jia, Fan
ORCID
Venue
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2024-07-10
Volume
15
Issue
1
Pages
5810-5810
ISSN
2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9
PMC
PMC11237138
OpenAlex
W4400484125
Cited by
47
References
5
Citations by year
2026: 21 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 3
FWCI
7.37
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China (42376006, 42206209)
  • Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2021205)
  • National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFF0805200, 2020YFA0608801, 2023YFF0806700)
  • Youth Innovation Promotion Association
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Keywords
ENSO, ENSO variability, global warming, climate change projections, sea surface temperature warming, wind anomalies, nonlinear climate response, high-emission scenario

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