Managerial myopia: Self-serving biases in organizational planning.
Abstract
Recent work indicates that people hold a variety of self-serving biases, be-lieving themselves more capable than they are in fact. Such biases, if ex-tended to the organizational level, would lead to overly optimistic planning for the future. This prediction was tested with two groups of management students and with a sample of corporate presidents. The management students consistently overestimated their abilities; in a marketing exercise, they like-wise indicated that a hypothetical firm, of which they were sales managers, would quickly overtake established competition. The executive sample also predicted inordinate success; the latter group, however, moderated projections somewhat if prior planning experience had been unsatisfactory. The impor-tance of managerial myopia to considerations of marketing, resource manage-ment, and demarketing is discussed. During the past decade, a number of re-searchers have noted that individuals often view themselves more favorably than seems
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
People tend to rate themselves above average on a variety of desirable skills and traits.
“well over half of survey respondents typically rate themselves in the top 50 percent of drivers (Svenson, 1981), ethics (Baumhart, 1968), managerial prowess (Larwood and Whittaker, 1977), productivity (Cross, 1977), health (Weinstein, 1980) and a variety of desirable skills.”
From Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases (1997) · cites this paper as Larwood and Whittaker, 1977
Cites
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W. (2012) · Yale University Press eBooks · doi:10.12987/9780300188479-012 · Cited by 5,037 · see citing works
Langer, E. J. (1975) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.32.2.311 · Cited by 3,909 · see citing works
Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction?
Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. (1975) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/h0076486 · Cited by 2,575 · see citing works
Fischhoff, B., & Beyth, R. (1975) · Organizational Behavior and Human Performance · doi:10.1016/0030-5073(75)90002-1 · Cited by 716 · see citing works
Ecologically Concerned Consumers: Who Are They?
Kinnear, T. C., Taylor, J. R., & Ahmed, S. A. (1974) · Journal of Marketing · doi:10.2307/1250192 · Cited by 685 · see citing works
An Inquiry into the Human Prospect.
Petersen, W., & Heilbroner, R. L. (1975) · Social Forces · doi:10.2307/2576116 · Cited by 397 · see citing works
Marketing during Periods of Shortage
Kotler, P. (1974) · Journal of Marketing · doi:10.1177/002224297403800305 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
An Inquiry into the Human Prospect.
Murphy, S., & Heilbroner, R. L. (1975) · Contemporary Sociology A Journal of Reviews · doi:10.2307/2063662 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Blackjack and the risky shift, II: Monetary stakes
Blascovich, J., Ginsburg, G. P., & Howe, R. C. (1975) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0022-1031(75)80024-2 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Determinants of the self-attribution of having influenced another person.
Schopler, J., & Layton, B. D. (1972) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0032880 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Do people have inflated views of their own ability?
Regan, J. W., Gosselink, H., Hubsch, J., & Ulsh, E. (1975) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0076300 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
A Predictive Information System for Management
Kidd, J., & Morgan, J. (1969) · Journal of the Operational Research Society · doi:10.1057/jors.1969.48 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Illusion and well‐being: A social psychological perspective on mental health
Taylor, S. E., & Brown, J. D. (1988) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.103.2.193 · Cited by 7,814 · see citing works
Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121 · Cited by 7,731 · see citing works
Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (2000) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x00003435 · Cited by 4,255 · see citing works
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.90.4.293 · Cited by 3,991 · see citing works
CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment
Malmendier, U. M., & Tate, G. A. (2005) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00813.x · Cited by 3,645 · see citing works
Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
Bottom, W. P., Gilovich, T. D., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. J. (2004) · Academy of Management Review · doi:10.2307/20159081 · Cited by 3,579 · see citing works
Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.
Kahneman, D., & Frederick, S. (2002) · Heuristics and Biases · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.004 · Cited by 3,476 · see citing works
The Logic of Violence in Civil War
Kalyvas, S. N. (2006) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511818462 · Cited by 3,427 · see citing works
Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives
Kahneman, D., & Miller, D. T. (1986) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.93.2.136 · Cited by 3,158 · see citing works
Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction☆
Malmendier, U. M., & Tate, G. (2008) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.07.002 · Cited by 2,765 · see citing works
Slovic, P., Finucane, M., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2002) · Heuristics and Biases · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.025 · Cited by 2,349 · see citing works
“Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment.”
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.2648573 · Cited by 2,298 · see citing works
Managerial and Organizational Cognition: Notes from a Trip Down Memory Lane
Walsh, J. P. (1995) · Organization Science · doi:10.1287/orsc.6.3.280 · Cited by 2,214 · see citing works
(2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098 · Cited by 2,214 · see citing works
Resistance to Medical Artificial Intelligence
Longoni, C., Bonezzi, A., & Morewedge, C. K. (2019) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1093/jcr/ucz013 · Cited by 2,015 · see citing works
Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?
Svenson, O. (1981) · Acta Psychologica · doi:10.1016/0001-6918(81)90005-6 · Cited by 1,969 · see citing works
Flawed Self-Assessment: Implications for Health, Education, and the Workplace
Dunning, D., Heath, C., & Suls, J. M. (2004) · Psychological Science in the Public Interest · doi:10.1111/j.1529-1006.2004.00018.x · Cited by 1,865 · see citing works
The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (1992) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(92)90013-r · Cited by 1,796 · see citing works
Malmendier, U. M., Tate, G. A., & Yan, J. (2011) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01685.x · Cited by 1,729 · see citing works
Gender and Corporate Finance: Are Male Executives Overconfident Relative to Female Executives?
Huang, J., & Kisgen, D. J. (2011) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.12.005 · Cited by 1,661 · see citing works
The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6 · Cited by 1,649 · see citing works
Walsh, J. P., & Ungson, G. R. (1991) · Academy of Management Review · doi:10.5465/amr.1991.4278992 · Cited by 1,497 · see citing works
Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability
Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J. (1994) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.101.4.547 · Cited by 1,167 · see citing works
Cognitive biases, risk perception, and venture formation
Simon, M., Houghton, S. M., & Aquino, K. F. (2000) · Journal of Business Venturing · doi:10.1016/s0883-9026(98)00003-2 · Cited by 1,167 · see citing works
Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases
Babcock, L., & Loewenstein, G. (1997) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.11.1.109 · Cited by 1,071 · see citing works
Sedikides, C., & Strube, M. (1997) · Advances in experimental social psychology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(08)60018-0 · Cited by 1,045 · see citing works
Cognitive simplification processes in strategic decision‐making
Schwenk, C. R. (1984) · Strategic Management Journal · doi:10.1002/smj.4250050203 · Cited by 934 · see citing works
CEO Overconfidence and Corporate InvestmentPreprint
Malmendier, U. M., & Tate, G. A. (2002) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.354387 · Cited by 955 · see citing works
Overconfidence, CEO Selection, and Corporate Governance
Goel, A. M., & Thakor, A. V. (2008) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01412.x · Cited by 832 · see citing works
Knowledge Calibration: What Consumers Know and What They Think They Know
Alba, J. W., & Hutchinson, J. W. (2000) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1086/314317 · Cited by 832 · see citing works
The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning
Nisbett, R., Krantz, D., Jepson, C., & Kunda, Z. (1983) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.90.4.339 · Cited by 802 · see citing works
Contract Design and Self-Control: Theory and Evidence
Dellavigna, S., & Malmendier, U. (2004) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/0033553041382111 · Cited by 864 · see citing works
Dunning, D., Meyerowitz, J. A., & Holzberg, A. D. (1989) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.57.6.1082 · Cited by 758 · see citing works
Managerial Overconfidence and Accounting Conservatism
Ahmed, A. S., & Duellman, S. (2012) · Journal of Accounting Research · doi:10.1111/j.1475-679x.2012.00467.x · Cited by 720 · see citing works
Perspective: Linking Design Thinking with Innovation Outcomes through Cognitive Bias Reduction
Liedtka, J. (2015) · Journal of Product Innovation Management · doi:10.1111/jpim.12163 · Cited by 951 · see citing works
Dunning, D. A., Meyerowitz, J. A., & Holzberg, A. D. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.020 · Cited by 688 · see citing works
Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market's ReactionPreprint
Malmendier, U. M., & Tate, G. A. (2003) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.470788 · Cited by 653 · see citing works
Attributions in the Board Room: Causal Reasoning in Corporate Annual Reports
Bettman, J. R., & Weitz, B. A. (1983) · Administrative Science Quarterly · doi:10.2307/2392616 · Cited by 612 · see citing works
Helweg‐Larsen, M., & Shepperd, J. A. (2001) · Personality and Social Psychology Review · doi:10.1207/s15327957pspr0501_5 · Cited by 544 · see citing works
CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting
Hribar, P., & Yang, H. I. (2015) · Contemporary Accounting Research · doi:10.1111/1911-3846.12144 · Cited by 535 · see citing works
Does Overconfidence Affect Corporate Investment? CEO Overconfidence Measures Revisited
Malmendier, U. M., & Tate, G. A. (2005) · European Financial Management · doi:10.1111/j.1354-7798.2005.00302.x · Cited by 470 · see citing works
Situated Optimism: Specific Outcome Expectancies and Self-Regulation
Armor, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (1998) · Advances in experimental social psychology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(08)60386-x · Cited by 453 · see citing works
Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: Advances in support theory.
Rottenstreich, Y., & Tversky, A. (1997) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.104.2.406 · Cited by 437 · see citing works
Conjectures on Cognitive Simplification in Acquisition and Divestment Decision Making
Duhaime, I. M., & Schwenk, C. R. (1985) · Academy of Management Review · doi:10.5465/amr.1985.4278207 · Cited by 415 · see citing works
Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value
Chapman, G. B., & Johnson, E. J. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.008 · Cited by 410 · see citing works
Sloman, S. A. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.024 · Cited by 407 · see citing works
Quadrel, M. J., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, W. (1993) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037//0003-066x.48.2.102 · Cited by 397 · see citing works
Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease
Sherman, S., Cialdini, R., Schwartzman, D. F., & Reynolds, K. (1985) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167285111011 · Cited by 310 · see citing works
Behavioral CEOs: The Role of Managerial Overconfidence
Malmendier, U. M., & Tate, G. A. (2015) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.29.4.37 · Cited by 373 · see citing works
When less is more: Counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medalists.
Medvec, V. H., Madey, S. F., & Gilovich, T. D. (1995) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.69.4.603 · Cited by 507 · see citing works
Teacher Education Students' Preconceptions of Teaching
Weinstein, C. S. (1989) · Journal of Teacher Education · doi:10.1177/002248718904000210 · Cited by 329 · see citing works
Assessing uncertainty in physical constants
Henrion, M., & Fischhoff, B. (1986) · American Journal of Physics · doi:10.1119/1.14447 · Cited by 299 · see citing works
CEO overconfidence, CEO dominance and corporate acquisitions
Brown, R., & Sarma, N. (2007) · Journal of Economics and Business · doi:10.1016/j.jeconbus.2007.04.002 · Cited by 308 · see citing works
Introduction – Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now
Gilovich, T. D., & Griffin, D. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.002 · Cited by 305 · see citing works
Piquero, A. R., & Pogarsky, G. (2002) · Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency · doi:10.1177/002242780203900202 · Cited by 306 · see citing works
CEO overconfidence and financial crisis: Evidence from bank lending and leverage
Ho, P., Huang, C.-W., Lin, C., & Yen, J. (2016) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.04.007 · Cited by 302 · see citing works
Chen, G., Crossland, C., & Luo, S. (2014) · Strategic Management Journal · doi:10.1002/smj.2291 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
Cassar, G. (2009) · Strategic Management Journal · doi:10.1002/smj.833 · Cited by 293 · see citing works
Behavioral Corporate Finance: An Updated Survey
Baker, M. P., & Wurgler, J. A. (2013) · Handbook of the economics of finance · doi:10.1016/b978-0-44-453594-8.00005-7 · Cited by 291 · see citing works
Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives
Kahneman, D. J., & Miller, D. T. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.022 · Cited by 284 · see citing works
AN EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF DETERRENCE: CHEATING, SELF‐SERVING BIAS, AND IMPULSIVITY*
Nagin, D. S., & Pogarsky, G. (2003) · Criminology · doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.2003.tb00985.x · Cited by 279 · see citing works
Industry and startup experience on entrepreneur forecast performance in new firms
Cassar, G. (2012) · Journal of Business Venturing · doi:10.1016/j.jbusvent.2012.10.002 · Cited by 280 · see citing works
Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey
Baker, M. P., Ruback, R. S., & Wurgler, J. A. (2004) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w10863 · Cited by 273 · see citing works
Schumacher, D. J., Englander, R., & Carraccio, C. L. (2013) · Academic Medicine · doi:10.1097/acm.0b013e3182a6e8f8 · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Self‐Favoring Biases, Self‐Presentation, and the Self‐Other Asymmetry in Social Comparison
Hoorens, V. (1995) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.1995.tb00317.x · Cited by 241 · see citing works
Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice
Slovic, P., Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.014 · Cited by 233 · see citing works
Managerial optimism and corporate investment: Some empirical evidence from Taiwan
Lin, Y.-H., Hu, S., & Chen, M.-S. (2005) · Pacific-Basin Finance Journal · doi:10.1016/j.pacfin.2004.12.003 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Schwarz, N., & Vaughn, L. A. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.007 · Cited by 210 · see citing works
When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism
Armor, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.021 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
AI adoption rate and corporate green innovation efficiency: Evidence from Chinese energy companies
Wang, Z., Zhang, T., Ren, X., & Shi, Y. (2024) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107499 · Cited by 206 · see citing works
Haynes, K. T., Hitt, M. A., & Campbell, J. T. (2015) · Journal of Management Studies · doi:10.1111/joms.12127 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”
Rozin, P. N., & Nemeroff, C. J. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.013 · Cited by 192 · see citing works
Determinants of corporate borrowing: A behavioral perspective
Dirk Hackbarth, B. (2009) · Journal of Corporate Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2009.02.001 · Cited by 188 · see citing works
How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments.
Bar‐Hillel, M., & Neter, E. (1993) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.65.6.1119 · Cited by 189 · see citing works
Behavioral Corporate Finance: An Updated Survey
Baker, M. P., & Wurgler, J. A. (2011) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w17333 · Cited by 187 · see citing works
CAUSAL AMBIGUITY, MANAGEMENT PERCEPTION, AND FIRM PERFORMANCE
Powell, T. C., Lovallo, D. P., & Caringal, C. (2006) · Academy of Management Review · doi:10.5465/amr.2006.19379630 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
Moore, D. A. (2006) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.09.005 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment
Malmendier, U. M., & Tate, G. A. (2004) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w10807 · Cited by 172 · see citing works
Bertrand, M. (2009) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev.economics.050708.143301 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate?
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.026 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.016 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions.
Weinstein, N. D., & Klein, W. M. P. (1995) · Health Psychology · doi:10.1037//0278-6133.14.2.132 · Cited by 593 · see citing works
Swine Flu: A Field Study of Self‐Serving Biases
Larwood, L. (1978) · Journal of Applied Social Psychology · doi:10.1111/j.1559-1816.1978.tb00783.x · Cited by 163 · see citing works
Self-citationMental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem
Wilson, T. D., Centerbar, D. B., & Brekke, N. (2002) · Heuristics and Biases · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.012 · Cited by 160 · see citing works
Overly positive self-evaluations and personality: Negative implications for mental health.
Colvin, C. R., Block, J., & Funder, D. C. (1995) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.68.6.1152 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
The Effect of Perceived Control on Risk Taking1
Horswill, M. S., & MCKENNA, F. P. (1999) · Journal of Applied Social Psychology · doi:10.1111/j.1559-1816.1999.tb01392.x · Cited by 161 · see citing works
(2006) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.44-1034 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
The Positive Effects of Biased Self-Perceptions in Firms
Gervais, S., & Itay Goldstein, B. (2007) · European Finance Review · doi:10.1093/rof/rfm022 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Gilbert, D. T. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.011 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Feelings as Information: Moods Influence Judgments and Processing Strategies
Schwarz, N. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.031 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
The calibration of expert judgment: heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory
Koehler, D. J., Brenner, L., & Griffin, D. (2002) · Heuristics and Biases · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.041 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
Managerial overconfidence, internal financing, and investment efficiency: Evidence from China
He, Y., Chen, C., & Hu, Y. (2018) · Research in International Business and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.09.010 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
CEO optimism and incentive compensation
Otto, C. A. (2014) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.06.006 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
An investigation of hindsight bias in nascent venture activity
Cassar, G., & Craig, J. B. L. (2008) · Journal of Business Venturing · doi:10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.02.003 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
Corporate Governance, Accounting Conservatism, and Manipulation
Caskey, J. A., & Laux, V. (2016) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2015.2341 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Maintaining Self-Serving Social Comparisons: Biased Reconstruction of One's Past Behaviors
Klein, W. M., & Kunda, Z. (1993) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167293196008 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
I'm Too Good for This Job: Narcissism's Role in the Experience of Overqualification
Maynard, D. C., Brondolo, E. M., Connelly, C. E., & Sauer, C. E. (2014) · Applied Psychology · doi:10.1111/apps.12031 · Cited by 127 · see citing works
Baker, M. P., Ruback, R. S., & Wurgler, J. A. (2007) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-53265-7.50018-4 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself
Miller, D. T., & Taylor, B. R. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.023 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Overconfidence and moral hazard
de la Rosa, L. E. (2011) · Games and Economic Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.geb.2011.04.001 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
- Authors
- Larwood, L., & Whittaker, W.
- Venue
- Journal of Applied Psychology
- Published
- 1977-04
- Volume
- 62
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 194-198
- ISSN
- 0021-9010 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1854
- OpenAlex
- W2028731944
- Cited by
- 490
- References
- 12
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 19 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 32 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 17 · 2012: 14
- FWCI
- 0.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Applied Psychology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management › Management Theory and Practice
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies
- Keywords
- managerial myopia, self-serving bias, organizational planning, overconfidence, overestimation of ability, managerial optimism, sales forecasting, marketing planning, planning experience, business executives, demarketing, resource management
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review