Individual differences in adult decision-making competence.

“15 A moderation test using hierarchical regression (Baron & Kenny, 1986) shows that adding the interactions of the A-DMC with recruitment site and with highest level of education completed to the main effects improves predictions of the DOI ( R2 .02), F(2, 310) 3.37, p .05.”

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“which “the measure fits lawfully into a network of expected relationships” (Nunnally & Bernstein, 1994, p. 91; see also Cronbach & Meehl, 1955 ).”

“In addition, the cognitive style of “need for cognition,” capturing the tendency to think hard about problems (Cacioppo & Petty, 1982), has been associated with having fewer framing errors (Smith & Levin, 1996), suggesting that it may facilitate discovering the deep structure shared by different…”

“…whereas the other view posits that older individuals have knowledge and experience that allows them to be more selective, domain specific, and automatized in their problem solving (cf. Baltes & Baltes, 1990; Denney, 1989; Salthouse, 1991), which may make up for any impaired cognitive abilities.”

“That is, real-world choices may typically appear in a common frame, perhaps conveying the communicator’s norms about how to view the choice (Fischhoff, 1993; Fischhoff, Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1980; McKenzie, 2004; McKenzie & Nelson, 2003; Schwarz, 1999).”

“Our strategy for measuring general cognitive abilities was informed by theories of fluid and crystallized intelligence (Cattell, 1963, 1987; Horn, 1985).”

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“Items address varied contexts, with some adapted from the sunk-cost literature ( Arkes & Blumer, 1985; Baron, Granato, Spranca, & Teubal, 1993; Bornstein & Chapman, 1995; Frisch, 1993), and others created for this project.”

“However, researchers have studied many other judgment and decision-making skills, including consistency in judgments over time (Fischhoff, 1975), consistency in choice over time (Loewenstein & Elster, 1992), and resistance to biases arising from heuristics such as representativeness and…”

“Overall, the A-DMC would then be an “index” (Streiner, 2003) or “formative measure” (Edwards & Bagozzi, 2000), defined by its separate components.”

“…maladaptive decision-making styles, including tendencies to experience regret and maximize needlessly (Schwartz et al., 2002); to engage in behavioral coping (Epstein & Meier, 1989; Katz & Epstein, 1991); and to engage in avoidant, rational, and spontaneous decision making (Scott & Bruce, 1985).”

“…condom with a 95% success rate or a 5% failure rate (Linville, Fischer, & Fischhoff, 1993), the quality of ground beef labeled 80% lean or 20% fat (Levin & Gaeth, 1988), cheating at a university where students’ self-reports indicate that 65% have cheated or 35% never have (Levin, Schnittjer, &…”

“Our strategy for measuring general cognitive abilities was informed by theories of fluid and crystallized intelligence (Cattell, 1963, 1987; Horn, 1985).”

“Overall, the A-DMC would then be an “index” (Streiner, 2003) or “formative measure” (Edwards & Bagozzi, 2000), defined by its separate components.”

“... ability and resistance to decision-making biases, including overconfidence (Stanovich & West, 2000; Wolfe & Grosch, 1990), hindsight bias (Stanovich & West, 2000), inefficient use of decision rules (Bro ¨der, 2003), statistical reasoning errors (Jepson, Krantz, & Nisbett, 1983; Stanovich & West, 1998), violation o…”

“Willis, 1991), whereas the other view posits that older individuals have knowledge and experience that allows them to be more selective, domain specific, and automatized in their problem solving (cf. Baltes & Baltes, 1990; Denney, 1989; Salthouse, 1991), which may make up for any impaired cognitive abilities.”

“However, these beneficial effects of need for cognition have not been found in other studies looking at framing (LeBoeuf & Shafir, 2003; Levin et al., 2002) and confidence assessment (Jonsson & Allwood, 2003; Wolfe & Grosch, 1990).”

“…in the tendencies to avoid framing errors (Levin, Gaeth, Schreiber, & Lauriola, 2002), abandon sunk costs (Stanovich, 1999), apply decision rules (Bröder, 2000), and express appropriate levels of confidence (Blais, Thompson, & Baranski, 2005; Bornstein & Zickafoose, 1999; Klayman, Soll,…”

“That is, real-world choices may typically appear in a common frame, perhaps conveying the communicator’s norms about how to view the choice (Fischhoff, 1993; Fischhoff, Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1980; Mc-Kenzie, 2004; McKenzie & Nelson, 2003; Schwarz, 1999).”

“That is, real-world choices may typically appear in a common frame, perhaps conveying the communicator’s norms about how to view the choice (Fischhoff, 1993; Fischhoff, Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1980; Mc-Kenzie, 2004; McKenzie & Nelson, 2003; Schwarz, 1999).”

“rate (Levin et al., 1988).”

“To examine the A-DMC’s overlap with other measures, Table 6 shows hierarchical regressions adopted from Finucane et al. (2005).”

“However, these beneficial effects of need for cognition have not been found in other studies looking at framing (LeBoeuf & Shafir, 2003; Levin et al., 2002) and confidence assessment (Jonsson & Allwood, 2003; Wolfe & Grosch, 1990).”

“Furthermore, older adults may be more likely than younger ones to be overconfident (Crawford & Stankov, 1996; Job, 1990) and use simple noncompensatory choice strategies (Johnson, 1990).”

“McElroy and Seta (2003) found fewer framing errors among people with a more analytical/systematic processing style, suggesting that more systematic thinkers could better see through irrelevant differences between normatively equivalent problem framings.”

“Indeed, decision making may be a teachable skill (Baron & Brown, 1991), with correlational evidence suggesting that people who have received formal training in decision making may obtain better life outcomes (Larrick et al., 1993).”

“Possibly, Resistance to Framing and Applying Decision Rules require cognitive skills that decrease with age (Finucane et al., 2005, 2002), whereas Recognizing Social Norms and Resistance to Sunk Costs rely on experiences that increase with age.”

“…cheated or 35% never have (Levin, Schnittjer, & Thee, 1988), funding a team that had 30 successful or 20 unsuccessful projects among its last 50 (Dunegan, 1993), counseling a student who received either 90% correct on the midterm exam and 70% correct on the final exam or 10% and 30% incorrect,…”

“In one indirect test, Larrick et al. (1993) found correlations between disciplinary background (economics, biology, humanities) and scores on tests of cost–benefit thinking.”

“More direct tests of causal relationships include prospective studies examining the effects of training in decision making on the outcomes that people experience later (Beyth-Marom, Fischhoff, Quadrel, & Furby, 1991; Downs et al., 2004).”

“Correlations have been found between the ability to resist framing errors and such personality traits as low neuroticism, high agreeableness, and conscientiousness (Soane & Chmiel, 2005) as well as low impulsiveness and anxiety (Lauriola, Russo, Lucidi, Violani, & Levin, 2005).”

“…(Stanovich, 1999), apply decision rules (Bröder, 2000), and express appropriate levels of confidence (Blais, Thompson, & Baranski, 2005; Bornstein & Zickafoose, 1999; Klayman, Soll, González-Vallejo, & Barlas, 1999; Stankov & Crawford, 1996, 1997; West & Stanovich, 1997; Wolfe & Grosch, 1990).”

“…items involve choices between a sure thing and a risky option in the contexts of income tax (Highhouse & Paese, 1996), dropping out of school (Fagley & Miller, 1990), an unusual disease (Tversky & Kahneman, 1981), cancer (Tversky & Kahneman, 1988), stock market investments (Roszkowski &…”

“Conversely, dependent, spontaneous, and avoidant styles may be maladaptive (Loo, 2000; Russ et al., 1996; Singh & Greenhaus, 2004).”

“Overconfidence has showed mixed correlations with personality traits (Stankov & Crawford, 1996).”

“However, these beneficial effects of need for cognition have not been found in other studies looking at framing (LeBoeuf & Shafir, 2003; Levin et al., 2002) and confidence assessment (Jonsson & Allwood, 2003; Wolfe & Grosch, 1990).”

“…(Stanovich, 1999), apply decision rules (Bröder, 2000), and express appropriate levels of confidence (Blais, Thompson, & Baranski, 2005; Bornstein & Zickafoose, 1999; Klayman, Soll, González-Vallejo, & Barlas, 1999; Stankov & Crawford, 1996, 1997; West & Stanovich, 1997; Wolfe & Grosch, 1990).”

“…sunk costs (Stanovich, 1999), apply decision rules (Bröder, 2000), and express appropriate levels of confidence (Blais, Thompson, & Baranski, 2005; Bornstein & Zickafoose, 1999; Klayman, Soll, González-Vallejo, & Barlas, 1999; Stankov & Crawford, 1996, 1997; West & Stanovich, 1997; Wolfe &…”

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“Furthermore, older adults may be more likely than younger ones to be overconfident (Crawford & Stankov, 1996; Job, 1990) and use simple noncompensatory choice strategies (Johnson, 1990).”

“Disadvantaged SES, referring to limited material resources and education (Ensminger & Fothergill, 2003), increases exposure to uncontrollable and controllable negative life events ( Brady & Matthews, 2002 ), with poor decisions playing a plausible, but undetermined, role.”

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“…Raiffa, 1968).2 Thus, these models judge the quality of a decision by its process rather than by its outcome, although it is assumed that a person who uses better decision processes will be more likely to experience good decision outcomes (e.g., W. Edwards, 1984; Keren & Bruine de Bruin, 2003).”

“That is, real-world choices may typically appear in a common frame, perhaps conveying the communicator’s norms about how to view the choice (Fischhoff, 1993; Fischhoff, Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1980; McKenzie, 2004; McKenzie & Nelson, 2003; Schwarz, 1999).”

“50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% just guessing absolutely sure”

“…whereas the other view posits that older individuals have knowledge and experience that allows them to be more selective, domain specific, and automatized in their problem solving (cf. Baltes & Baltes, 1990; Denney, 1989; Salthouse, 1991), which may make up for any impaired cognitive abilities.”

“Furthermore, older adults may be more likely than younger ones to be overconfident (Crawford & Stankov, 1996; Job, 1990) and use simple noncompensatory choice strategies (Johnson, 1990).”

“However, these beneficial effects of need for cognition have not been found in other studies looking at framing (LeBoeuf & Shafir, 2003; Levin et al., 2002) and confidence assessment (Jonsson & Allwood, 2003; Wolfe & Grosch, 1990).”

“…rational (Crossley & Highhouse, 2005; Leong & Morris, 1989; Russ, McNeilly, & Comer, 1996) and intuitive (Crossley & Highhouse, 2005) decision-making styles are effective, in the sense of being related to positive career outcomes (although see Phillips & Strohmer, 1982; Singh & Greenhaus, 2004).”

“…(Levin, Johnson, Russo, & Deldin, 1985), fining a woman with a 20% chance of not knowing that she had parked illegally or an 80% chance of knowing that she had (Dunegan, 1996), and advising a family member about a cancer treatment with a 50% success rate or a 50% failure rate (Levin et al., 1988).”

“A stronger test of external validity revealed lower scores on a test of adherence to cost– benefit rules among high school students with multiple school suspensions, compared with their peers ( Stanovich, Grunewald, & West, 2003 ).”

“Recognizing Social Norms measures how well participants assess peer social norms, which is based on studies by Jacobs, Greenwald, and Osgood (1995) and Loeber (1989).”

“These results converge with a body of other work indicating that the susceptibility to these biases varies considerably ( Bruine de Bruin et al., 2007 ; C okely & Kelley, 2009; Del Missier, Mantyla, & Bruine de Bruine, 2010; Dohmen, Falk, Huffman, Marklein, & Sunde, 2009; Klaczynski, 2001; Oechssler et al., 2009; Stan…”

“…(Matthews et al. 2002), practical intelligence (Sternberg & Hedlund 2002, Wagner & Sternberg 1985), decision-making competence or rationality (De Bruin et al. 2007, Parker & Fischoff 2005, Stanovich 2009, Stanovich & West 2008), process analytic ability (Zysberg 2009), and even chance (Gladwell…”