The DOI matches its Crossref record; 161 of the 163 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Two-stage dynamic signal detection: A theory of choice, decision time, and confidence.
Abstract
The 3 most often-used performance measures in the cognitive and decision sciences are choice, response or decision time, and confidence. We develop a random walk/diffusion theory-2-stage dynamic signal detection (2DSD) theory-that accounts for all 3 measures using a common underlying process. The model uses a drift diffusion process to account for choice and decision time. To estimate confidence, we assume that evidence continues to accumulate after the choice. Judges then interrupt the process to categorize the accumulated evidence into a confidence rating. The model explains all known interrelationships between the 3 indices of performance. Furthermore, the model also accounts for the distributions of each variable in both a perceptual and general knowledge task. The dynamic nature of the model also reveals the moderating effects of time pressure on the accuracy of choice and confidence. Finally, the model specifies the optimal solution for giving the fastest choice and confidence rating for a given level of choice and confidence accuracy. Judges are found to act in a manner consistent with the optimal solution when making confidence judgments.
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“Pleskac & Busemeyer (2010) additionally proposed that this evidence accumulation process may continue after a decision has been made, informing estimates of decision confidence and potentially leading to changes of mind (Resulaj et al. 2009, van den Berg et al. 2016a).”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Pleskac & Busemeyer 2010
In the citing paper
“In turn, constraints on postdecisional evidence accumulation may affect the extent to which confidence estimates faithfully track performance (Desender et al. 2022, Pleskac & Busemeyer 2010).”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Pleskac & Busemeyer 2010
In the citing paper
“This assumption is supported by the finding that longer latencies of CJ are related to lower confidence ratings (Kälin & Roebers, 2020;Pleskac & Busemeyer, 2010).”
From Longitudinal associations between executive functions and metacognitive monitoring in 5- to 8-year-olds (2022) · cites this paper as Pleskac & Busemeyer, 2010
In the citing paper
“In contrast, the field of perceptual decision-making has highlighted the fact that confidence can be measured independently of the choice process itself9,10, where it is conceptualized as reflecting a “second-order” metacognitive evaluation.”
From Confidence in value-based choice (2013) · cites this paper as [10]
In the citing paper
“Pleskac and collaborators have shown that a single process can explain confidence in choices made in perceptual (line discrimination and random dot motion) and cognitive (city size inference) tasks (Pleskac & Busemeyer, 2010;Yu, Pleskac, & Zeigenfuse, 2015).”
From Individual consistency in the accuracy and distribution of confidence judgments (2016) · cites this paper as Pleskac & Busemeyer, 2010
In the citing paper
“Moreover, they show that a model based on a single process to compute confidence in different domains can explain what factors control the degree of correlation between tasks.”
From Individual consistency in the accuracy and distribution of confidence judgments (2016) · cites this paper as Pleskac & Busemeyer, 2010
Citations
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Smithson, M. J. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198960614.003.0007
Smithson, M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198960614.003.0004
Smithson, M. J. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198960614.003.0008
Ignorance Studies, Where Is Psychology?
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What Do We Think Others Are Missing?
Smithson, M. J. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198960614.003.0003
Confidence Judgments Reflect the Standard Error of Noisy Evidence Samples Across DomainsPreprint
West, R. K., Sewell, D. K., & Scheibehenne, B. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.04.20.719573
Disentangling the origins of confidence in speeded perceptual judgments through multimodal imagingPreprint
Wirthlin, M., Pereira, M., & Faivre, N. (2020) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)
A unified theory of discrete and continuous respondingPreprint
Heathcote, A., & Kvam, P. (2022) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)
A post-decisional neural marker of confidence predicts information-seeking in decision-makingPreprint
Yeung, N., Desender, K., Verguts, T., Boldt, A., & Murphy, P. (2019) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)
dynConfiR: An R package for sequential sampling models of decision confidence
Hellmann, S., Zehetleitner, M., & Rausch, M. (2026) · Behavior Research Methods · doi:10.3758/s13428-026-03013-0
Li, R., Chen, B., & Fu, C. (2026) · Journal of Multilingual and Multicultural Development · doi:10.1080/01434632.2026.2672748
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A single evidence accumulation process informs perceptual choices and subsequent confidence reportsPreprint
Grogan, J. P., Vermeylen, L., Mannion, S.-L., McCabe, C., Monakhovych, D., Desender, K., & O’Connell, R. G. (2026) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.112343.1
A single evidence accumulation process informs perceptual choices and subsequent confidence reportsPreprint
Grogan, J. P., Vermeylen, L., Mannion, S.-L., McCabe, C., Monakhovych, D., Desender, K., & O’Connell, R. G. (2026) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.112343
When Can We Trust Our Memories? Quantitative and Qualitative Indicators of Recognition Accuracy
DeSoto, K. A. (2015) · Open Scholarship Institutional Repository (Washington University in St. Louis) · doi:10.7936/k78050rg
Metadata
- Authors
- Pleskac, T. J., & Busemeyer, J. R.
- Affiliations
- Michigan State University (US)
- Venue
- Psychological Review
- Published
- 2010
- Volume
- 117
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 864-901
- ISSN
- 0033-295X (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1471
- OpenAlex
- W2158389550
- Cited by
- 722
- References
- 163
- Citations by year
- 2026: 50 · 2025: 48 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 66 · 2022: 49 · 2021: 57 · 2020: 61 · 2019: 43 · 2018: 45 · 2017: 45 · 2016: 51 · 2015: 35 · 2014: 55 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 27
- FWCI
- 14.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2011-01-17)
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Psychological Review (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Mental Health (MH019879)
- National Science Foundation (0817965)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Visual perception and processing mechanisms
- Keywords
- drift-diffusion model, confidence judgments, decision time, choice, random walks, evidence accumulation, time pressure, perceptual decision making, knowledge-based decision making, optimal decision strategies
- MeSH terms
- Choice Behavior, Decision Making, Humans, Judgment, Reaction Time, Time Factors, Signal Detection, Psychological
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