Cited by 723Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsNeural and Behavioral Psychology StudiesVisual perception and processing mechanisms

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Two-stage dynamic signal detection: A theory of choice, decision time, and confidence.

Pleskac, Timothy J., Busemeyer, Jerome R.·2010·Psychological Review

DOI 10.1037/a0019737

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Abstract

The 3 most often-used performance measures in the cognitive and decision sciences are choice, response or decision time, and confidence. We develop a random walk/diffusion theory-2-stage dynamic signal detection (2DSD) theory-that accounts for all 3 measures using a common underlying process. The model uses a drift diffusion process to account for choice and decision time. To estimate confidence, we assume that evidence continues to accumulate after the choice. Judges then interrupt the process to categorize the accumulated evidence into a confidence rating. The model explains all known interrelationships between the 3 indices of performance. Furthermore, the model also accounts for the distributions of each variable in both a perceptual and general knowledge task. The dynamic nature of the model also reveals the moderating effects of time pressure on the accuracy of choice and confidence. Finally, the model specifies the optimal solution for giving the fastest choice and confidence rating for a given level of choice and confidence accuracy. Judges are found to act in a manner consistent with the optimal solution when making confidence judgments.

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Authors: Pleskac, T. J., & Busemeyer, J. R.
Affiliations: Michigan State University (US)
ORCID: Pleskac, Timothy J.
Busemeyer, Jerome R.
Venue: Psychological Review
Publisher: American Psychological Association (APA)
Published: 2010
Volume: 117
Issue: 3
Pages: 864-901
ISSN: 0033-295X (ISSN-L)
1939-1471
DOI: 10.1037/a0019737
OpenAlex: W2158389550
Cited by: 722
References: 163
Citations by year: 2026: 50 · 2025: 48 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 66 · 2022: 49 · 2021: 57 · 2020: 61 · 2019: 43 · 2018: 45 · 2017: 45 · 2016: 51 · 2015: 35 · 2014: 55 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 27
FWCI: 14.52
Type: journal article
Language: en
Update notices: correction (2011-01-17)
Open access: closed
Locations: Psychological Review (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Institute of Mental Health (MH019879)
National Science Foundation (0817965)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Visual perception and processing mechanisms
Keywords: drift-diffusion model, confidence judgments, decision time, choice, random walks, evidence accumulation, time pressure, perceptual decision making, knowledge-based decision making, optimal decision strategies
MeSH terms: Choice Behavior, Decision Making, Humans, Judgment, Reaction Time, Time Factors, Signal Detection, Psychological

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Two-stage dynamic signal detection: A theory of choice, decision time, and confidence.

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