Cited by 1,333Species Distribution and Climate ChangeEcology and Vegetation Dynamics StudiesLepidoptera: Biology and Taxonomy

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Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change

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Warren, M. S., Hill, J. K., Thomas, J. A., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., Roy, D. B., Telfer, M. G., Jeffcoate, S., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G., Willis, S. G., Greatorex-Davies, J. N., Moss, D., Thomas, C. D.·2001·Nature

DOI 10.1038/35102054

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Abstract

Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage. Here we evaluated changes in the distribution sizes and abundances of 46 species of butterflies that approach their northern climatic range margins in Britain-where changes in climate and habitat are opposing forces. These insects might be expected to have responded positively to climate warming over the past 30 years, yet three-quarters of them declined: negative responses to habitat loss have outweighed positive responses to climate warming. Half of the species that were mobile and habitat generalists increased their distribution sites over this period (consistent with a climate explanation), whereas the other generalists and 89% of the habitat specialists declined in distribution size (consistent with habitat limitation). Changes in population abundances closely matched changes in distributions. The dual forces of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced numbers of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists.

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Lebigre, C., Turlure, C., Vandewalle, H., Binard, F., Habel, J. C., & Schtickzelle, N. (2022) · Ecological Entomology · doi:10.1111/een.13174 · Cited by 7
“, 2003) and their narrow diet/set of environmental conditions in which they can complete their life cycle (Pöyry et al., 2009; Thomas et al., 2001; Warren et al., 2001),”
Background
Tourism and forest ecosystems
Gößling, S., & Hickler, T. (2006) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780203011911-6 · Cited by 7
Biodiversity accounts for the butterflies of the Australian Capital Territory
Bond, S., & Vardon, M. (2022) · Conservation Science and Practice · doi:10.1111/csp2.12869 · Cited by 7
The current flow of migrants and its contribution to butterfly faunas (Lepidoptera, Rhopalocera) on marine islands with young allochthonous biota
Болотов, И. Н., Владимировна, П. М., Kolosova, Y. S., & Zubrii, N. A. (2013) · Biology Bulletin · doi:10.1134/s1062359012060040 · Cited by 7
THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL WILDLIFE AND TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS
Surasinghe, T. D. (2010) · TAPROBANICA The Journal of Asian Biodiversity · doi:10.4038/tapro.v2i1.2705 · Cited by 12
Designing a winter bird atlas field methodology: issues of time and space in sampling and interactions with habitat
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“…immensely useful in advancing knowledge of distributions of taxonomic groups, providing data for empirical and theoretical ecology, and invaluable information for conservation policy, planning and monitoring (e.g. Donald and Fuller 1998; Warren et al. 2001; Telfer et al. 2002; Araújo et al. 2005).”
How Euphydryas maturna survived extinction in the Czech Republic: status of a relic population after intensive conservation management
Vrabec, V., Bubová, T., Kulma, M., Krása, A., & Nowicki, P. (2019) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-019-00145-x · Cited by 7
‘Remote’ behavioural ecology: do megaherbivores consume vegetation in proportion to its presence in the landscape?
Marston, C. G., Wilkinson, D. M., Sponheimer, M., Codron, D., Codron, J., & O’Regan, H. J. (2020) · PeerJ · doi:10.7717/peerj.8622 · Cited by 7
“This is increasingly important due to the potential impacts of climate and other environmental changes such as woody encroachment on broad-scale landscape habitat composition (Warren et al., 2001; Huntley et al., 2016), as the use of isotope data in combination with remote-sensing analysis will be able to track shifts…”
Background
Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) in dry and wet seasons
SUWARNO, S. (2009) · Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity · doi:10.13057/biodiv/d110105 · Cited by 7
Decline of Bees and Other Pollinators
Carreck, N. (2015) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-394847-2.00008-5 · Cited by 7
Soil Type Impacts Macrohabitat Selection and Spatiotemporal Activity Patterns of Testudo graeca in an Eastern Mediterranean Ecosystem
Bernheim, M., Shanas, U., & Bar‐Massada, A. (2019) · Copeia · doi:10.1643/ce-18-066r1 · Cited by 7
Conserving narrow range endemic insects in the face of climate change: options for some Australian butterflies
New, T. R. (2008) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-008-9145-6 · Cited by 7
“The latter are those of primary interest here, and their often already low capability for natural dispersal may be thwarted already by isolation imposed by landscape changes that have reduced ‘connectivity’ (see Warren et al. 2001, for Britain).”
Background
Macroecology comes of age
Clarke, A. (2002) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/s0169-5347(02)02552-1 · Cited by 7
Effects of Global Climate Change on Agricultural Pests
Logan, J. D., Wolesensky, W., & Joern, A. (2005) · Books in soils, plants, and the environment · doi:10.1201/9781420028614.ch13 · Cited by 7
Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity
Higuchi, H. (2008) · Journal of Disaster Research · doi:10.20965/jdr.2008.p0098 · Cited by 7
Evolutionary Responses of Invertebrates to Global Climate Change: the Role of Life‐History Trade‐Offs and Multidecadal Climate Shifts
Carnicer, J., Wheat, C. W., Vives‐Ingla, M., Ubach, A., Domingo‐Marimon, C., Nylin, S., Stefanescu, C., Vila, R., Wiklund, C., & Peñuelas, J. (2016) · doi:10.1002/9781119070894.ch16 · Cited by 7
“While few empirical studies have considered genetic responses to global warming in invertebrate populations, many more studies have documented significant shifts in distributions and phenology (Parmesan et al., 1999; Roy & Sparks, 2000; Warren et al., 2001; Pöyry et al., 2009; Chen et al., 2011).”
Background
Biodiversity Generation and Loss
Oliver, T. H. (2017) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780199389414.013.96 · Cited by 7
“High intensity anthropogenic land use tends to affect more habitat specialist species that may be of conservation concern (Warren et al. 2001).”
Habitat fragmentation mediates the mechanisms underlying long-term climate-driven thermophilization in birdsPreprint
Liu, J., Tingley, M. W., Wu, Q., Ren, P., Jin, T., Ding, P., & Si, X. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.98056 · Cited by 7
Butterfly communities in the natural landscape of West Khentej, northern Mongolia: diversity and conservation value
Chuluunbaatar, G. (2006) · doi:10.53846/goediss-1407 · Cited by 7
Countering ecological misconceptions with strategic translocation and assessment of microhabitat use
Smith, K. J., Evans, M. J., Gordon, I. J., Pierson, J. C., McIntyre, S., & Manning, A. D. (2023) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110143 · Cited by 6
Alcon Blues: recent shifts in limiting habitat factors challenge the persistence of an endangered butterfly
WallisDeVries, M. F., Bokelaar, J., Kok, A., Limpens, J., Luijten, S. H., Oostermeijer, J. G. B., van Marrewijk, R. C. H., van Stipdonk, A. H., Vicente, I. I., Vogel, C., et al. (2024) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-024-00587-y · Cited by 6
“Also, habitat specialist species appear more severely affected than habitats general - ists (Warren et al. 2001; Menéndez et al. 2007; Clavel et al. 2010; Brereton et al. 2011), although this trend is not consistent across insect groups (Engelhardt et al. 2022).”
Negative impacts of future forest succession on three threatened butterfly species
Sunde, J., Askling, J., Kindvall, O., Johansson, V., & Franzén, M. (2024) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-024-02892-z · Cited by 6
“…habitat requirements, short generation times, and dispersal capability, butterflies are excellent model organisms in ecological studies aimed at investigating how biodiversity responds to altered environmental conditions (Ehrlich & Hanski 2004; Hanski 1998; Urban et al. 2016; Warren et al. 2001).”
Rapid selection for increased dispersal rates by the endangered butterfly Phengaris (Maculinea) arion across restored landscapes
Simcox, D. J., Meredith, S. A., & Thomas, J. A. (2024) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/icad.12781 · Cited by 6
“Two factors are often cited as key drivers of the declines of butterflies in European and other temperate landscapes (Hanski, 1999; Thomas, 1984, 1991, 2016; Thomas et al., 2001, 2004; Warren et al., 2001, 2021).”
Self-citation
Where to Next? The Future of Insect Conservation
Stewart, A. J. A. (2012) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-2963-6_18 · Cited by 6
Future of biodiversity in the Barents Region
Hof, A. R., & Jansson, R. (2015) · Nordic Council of Ministers eBooks · doi:10.6027/tn2015-519 · Cited by 6
“In fact, Warren et al. (2001) found that, in spite of increasing areas of favourable conditions, populations of butterflies with a low dispersal capacity declined, which lead to the believe that for these populations the effect of habitat fragmentation was stronger than the effect of a changing…”
Background
Population Genetic Structure and Demography of the Critically Endangered Chequered Blue Butterfly (Scolitantides orion) in a Highly Isolated Part of Its Distribution Range
Czajkowska, M., Dawidowicz, Ł., Borkowska, A., Dziekańska, I., & Sielezniew, M. (2020) · Insects · doi:10.3390/insects11090608 · Cited by 6
“Climate changes may also contribute to local declines and range shifts [2].”
Background
Landscape‐scale dynamics of a threatened species respond to local‐scale conservation management
Jones, R., Bourn, N. A. D., Maclean, I. M. D., & Wilson, R. J. (2023) · Oikos · doi:10.1111/oik.09334 · Cited by 6
Insect pollinators: linking research and policy
Vanbergen, A. J., Ambrose, N., Aston, D., Biesmeijer, J. C., Bourke, A. F. G., Breeze, T. D., Brotherton, P. N. M., Brown, M. A., Chandler, D., Clook, M., et al. (2012) · HAL · doi:10.13140/2.1.3274.5286 · Cited by 6
Initial population trends from a 5-year butterfly monitoring scheme
Staats, W. T., & Regan, E. (2014) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-014-9644-6 · Cited by 6
“…and distribution of butterflies have been reported on a European scale (Van Swaay and Van Strien 2008; Van Swaay and Warren 1999; Van Swaay et al. 2010b) and national and regional scales (Asher et al. 2001; Conrad et al. 2006;Thomas et al. 2004; Warren et al. 2001; Warren 2011; Wolterbeek 2012).”
Background
Southern dragonflies expanding in Wallonia (south Belgium): a consequence of global warming?
Goffart, P. (2010) · BIORISK – Biodiversity and Ecosystem Risk Assessment · doi:10.3897/biorisk.5.845 · Cited by 6
Butterflies of European islands: the implications of the geography and ecology of rarity and endemicity for conservation
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Note: The Role of Seasonality and Climatic Factors in Shaping the Community Composition of Mediterranean Butterflies
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“We also recommend viewing this research as a local model for monitoring butterflies on a range of sites in Israel, as was done in Britain (Warren et al., 2001) and the Netherlands (van Swaay et al., 1997), and recently initiated in Germany (Kühn et al., 2008, this issue)—with a focus on Long Term Ecological Research (…”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
The relative importance of microclimate and land use to biodiversity
Gillingham, P. K. (2010) · White Rose eTheses Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) · Cited by 6
National Ecosystem and Ecosystem Service Mapping Pilot for a Suite of Prioritised Services
Parker, N. H., Naumann, E.-K., Medcalf, K., Haines-Young, R. H., Potschin, M., Kretsch, C., Parker, J., & Burkhard, B. (2016) · Trinity's Access to Research Output (TARA) (Trinity College Dublin) · Cited by 6
Spatial and temporal scales of distribution and demography in breeding songbirds: implications of habitat fragmentation and restoration
Fletcher, R. J. (2003) · doi:10.31274/rtd-180813-11499 · Cited by 7

Authors: Warren, M. S., Hill, J. K., Thomas, J. A., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., Roy, D. B., Telfer, M. G., Jeffcoate, S., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G., Willis, S. G., Greatorex-Davies, J. N., Moss, D., & Thomas, C. D.
Affiliations: Butterfly Conservation (GB)
Durham University (GB)
Dorset Green Technology Park (GB)
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
University of Leeds (GB)
Corresponding author: Thomas, C. D.
ORCID: Hill, J. K.
Thomas, J. A.
Fox, R.
Huntley, B.
Roy, D. B.
Willis, S. G.
Thomas, C. D.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2001-11
Volume: 414
Issue: 6859
Pages: 65-69
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/35102054
OpenAlex: W1620630482
Cited by: 1,333
References: 33
Citations by year: 2026: 23 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 57 · 2020: 53 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 59 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 76 · 2015: 75 · 2014: 93 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 76
FWCI: 33.89
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
orcid.org
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion)
Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders: Natural Environment Research Council
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Insect Science › Lepidoptera: Biology and Taxonomy
Keywords: butterflies, climate change, habitat loss, range shifts, species distribution, population abundance, habitat generalists, habitat specialists, global warming, habitat degradation, Great Britain
MeSH terms: Adaptation, Physiological, Animals, Butterflies, Climate, Environment, United Kingdom, Population Dynamics, Seasons, Species Specificity

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Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change

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