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Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change
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Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage. Here we evaluated changes in the distribution sizes and abundances of 46 species of butterflies that approach their northern climatic range margins in Britain-where changes in climate and habitat are opposing forces. These insects might be expected to have responded positively to climate warming over the past 30 years, yet three-quarters of them declined: negative responses to habitat loss have outweighed positive responses to climate warming. Half of the species that were mobile and habitat generalists increased their distribution sites over this period (consistent with a climate explanation), whereas the other generalists and 89% of the habitat specialists declined in distribution size (consistent with habitat limitation). Changes in population abundances closely matched changes in distributions. The dual forces of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced numbers of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists.
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“While the gradual decline of rare insect species has been known for quite some time (e.g. specialized butterflies [9, 66]), our results illustrate an ongoing and rapid decline in total amount of airborne insects active in space and time.”
From More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas (2017) · cites this paper as [66]
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Franzén, M., & Johannesson, M. (2007) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-006-9053-6 · Cited by 95
“Recent dramatic land use changes is the major rea- son for most declines among butterflies (Warren et al. 2001).”
BackgroundInfluentialAssessing the vulnerability of European butterflies to climate change using multiple criteria
Heikkinen, R. K., Luoto, M., Leikola, N., Pöyry, J., Settele, J., Kudrna, O., Marmion, M., Fronzek, S., & Thuiller, W. (2009) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-009-9728-x · Cited by 93
“Moreover, it is likely that the impacts of hostile landscape will be amplified due to climate change (Warren et al. 2001; Bomhard et al. 2005; Franco et al. 2006).”
BackgroundFacilitating climate‐change‐induced range shifts across continental land‐use barriers
Robillard, C. M., Coristine, L. E., Soares, R. N., & Kerr, J. T. (2015) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/cobi.12556 · Cited by 94
Turlure, C., Choutt, J., Baguette, M., & Dyck, H. V. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02133.x · Cited by 94
“In these regions, their fragmented populations are typically trapped in altitudinal habitat providing little, or even no, opportunities to shift their regional range uphill (e.g., Wilson et al., 2007) or to the north (e.g., Warren et al., 2001; Pöyry et al., 2009).”
BackgroundDicks, L. V., Abrahams, A., Atkinson, J., Biesmeijer, J. C., Bourn, N. A. D., Brown, C., Brown, M. J. F., Carvell, C., Connolly, C. N., Cresswell, J., et al. (2012) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/j.1752-4598.2012.00221.x · Cited by 92
“…largely from long-term data on butterflies (and, to a lesser extent, moths), collected through participatory monitoring schemes with defined survey protocols involving standardised observations repeated regularly over space and time (e.g. Warren et al., 2001; Conrad et al., 2006; Fox et al., 2011).”
BackgroundThe Speed of Range Shifts in Fragmented Landscapes
Hodgson, J. A., Thomas, C. D., Dytham, C., Travis, J. M. J., & Cornell, S. J. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0047141 · Cited by 103
“change could interact to cause the extinction of many species [1,2,3,4,5,6].”
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Sorte, C. J. B., & Hofmann, G. E. (2004) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps274263 · Cited by 91
A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change
McRae, B. H., Schumaker, N. H., McKane, R. B., Busing, R. T., Solomon, A. M., & Burdick, C. A. (2008) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.08.001 · Cited by 95
“…habitat pattern is a key driver of wildlife population dynamics (Gilpin, 1987; Dunning et al., 1995; Turner et al., 1995; Hansen et al., 1999; Wiegand et al., 1999), such modeling frameworks must explicitly consider the influence of spatial heterogeneity on population performance (Cairns,…”
BackgroundDisparities between observed and predicted impacts of climate change on winter bird assemblages
Sorte, F. A. L., Lee, T. M., Wilman, H., & Jetz, W. (2009) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2009.0162 · Cited by 91
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Welk, E. (2004) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.04.020 · Cited by 90
Stefanescu, C., Torre, I., Jubany, J., & Páramo, F. (2010) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-010-9325-z · Cited by 89
“A commonly reported pattern is that of greater declines in habitat specialists than in habitat generalists (e.g. Warren et al. 2001; van Swaay et al. 2006).”
BackgroundBetzholtz, P., PETTERSSON, L. B., Ryrholm, N., & Franzén, M. (2012) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2012.2305 · Cited by 89
“In general, resources such as habitat and diet might influence range expansion both directly and indirectly, by offering more resources to generalists than to specialists [15–19].”
BackgroundSimulated climate change provokes rapid genetic change in the Mediterranean shrub Fumana thymifolia
Jump, A. S., Peñuelas, J., RICO, L., Ramallo, E., Estiarte, M., Martínez-Izquierdo, J. A., & Lloret, F. (2007) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01521.x · Cited by 89
“…of the effects of climatic change at species level have often been based on monitoring changes in local abundance (Lewis-Smith, 1994; Alward et al., 1999) or on the geographic range of particular taxa (Parmesan et al., 1999; Walther et al., 2001; Warren et al., 2001; Peñuelas & Boada, 2003).”
BackgroundShoo, L. P., Williams, S. E., & Hero, J. (2005) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00995.x · Cited by 90
Krauß, J., Steffan-Dewenter, I. D., & Tscharntke, T. (2004) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2004.03.007 · Cited by 88
The effects of soil eutrophication propagate to higher trophic levels
Pöyry, J., Carvalheiro, L. G., Heikkinen, R. K., Kühn, I., Kuussaari, M., Schweiger, O., Valtonen, A., van Bodegom, P. M., & Franzén, M. (2016) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.12521 · Cited by 92
Climate change, biodiversity conservation and protected area planning in Canada
Lemieux, C. J., & Scott, D. J. (2005) · Canadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes · doi:10.1111/j.0008-3658.2005.00103.x · Cited by 89
An elevational shift of cryophilous bryophytes in the last century – an effect of climate warming?
Bergamini, A., Ungricht, S., & Hofmann, H. (2009) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2009.00595.x · Cited by 86
“To account for different sampling efforts in the two time periods, we applied a random subsampling procedure similar to Warren et al. (2001) so that equal numbers of records were obtained in each 100 m band from 200 up to 2800 m a.s.l. for both time periods.”
MethodOliver, T. H., BRERETON, T. M., & Roy, D. B. (2012) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07665.x · Cited by 90
Self-citationChanges in the composition of British butterfly assemblages over two decades
González‐Megías, A., Menéndez, R., Roy, D. B., BRERETON, T. M., & Thomas, C. D. (2008) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01592.x · Cited by 87
“The results reported here show that the composition of butterfly communities in Britain has changed; previous suggestions that this might be the case were indirect inferences based on coarse-scale (100 or 400 km(2) grid cells) analyses of the distributions of the constituent species (Hill et al., 1999; Warren et al.,…”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationListmania: The Strengths and Weaknesses of Lists of Garden Plants to Help Pollinators
Garbuzov, M., & Ratnieks, F. L. W. (2014) · BioScience · doi:10.1093/biosci/biu150 · Cited by 86
Kéry, M., & Plattner, M. (2007) · Ecological Entomology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2311.2006.00841.x · Cited by 85
White, P., & Kerr, J. T. (2007) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00298.x · Cited by 85
Pescott, O. L., Walker, K. J., Pocock, M. J. O., Jitlal, M., Outhwaite, C. L., Cheffings, C. M., Harris, F., & Roy, D. B. (2015) · Biological Journal of the Linnean Society · doi:10.1111/bij.12581 · Cited by 84
Self-citationModelling the effect of habitat fragmentation on range expansion in a butterfly
Wilson, R. J., Davies, Z. G., & Thomas, C. D. (2009) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.0724 · Cited by 84
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Warren, M. S., Hill, J. K., Thomas, J. A., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., Roy, D. B., Telfer, M. G., Jeffcoate, S., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G., Willis, S. G., Greatorex-Davies, J. N., Moss, D., & Thomas, C. D.
- Affiliations
- Butterfly Conservation (GB)
- Durham University (GB)
- Dorset Green Technology Park (GB)
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Thomas, C. D.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2001-11
- Volume
- 414
- Issue
- 6859
- Pages
- 65-69
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W1620630482
- Cited by
- 1,333
- References
- 33
- Citations by year
- 2026: 23 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 57 · 2020: 53 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 59 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 76 · 2015: 75 · 2014: 93 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 76
- FWCI
- 33.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- orcid.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Insect Science › Lepidoptera: Biology and Taxonomy
- Keywords
- butterflies, climate change, habitat loss, range shifts, species distribution, population abundance, habitat generalists, habitat specialists, global warming, habitat degradation, Great Britain
- MeSH terms
- Adaptation, Physiological, Animals, Butterflies, Climate, Environment, United Kingdom, Population Dynamics, Seasons, Species Specificity
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