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Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change
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Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage. Here we evaluated changes in the distribution sizes and abundances of 46 species of butterflies that approach their northern climatic range margins in Britain-where changes in climate and habitat are opposing forces. These insects might be expected to have responded positively to climate warming over the past 30 years, yet three-quarters of them declined: negative responses to habitat loss have outweighed positive responses to climate warming. Half of the species that were mobile and habitat generalists increased their distribution sites over this period (consistent with a climate explanation), whereas the other generalists and 89% of the habitat specialists declined in distribution size (consistent with habitat limitation). Changes in population abundances closely matched changes in distributions. The dual forces of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced numbers of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists.
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“While the gradual decline of rare insect species has been known for quite some time (e.g. specialized butterflies [9, 66]), our results illustrate an ongoing and rapid decline in total amount of airborne insects active in space and time.”
From More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas (2017) · cites this paper as [66]
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“Environmental alterations in the short term are likely to filter out Lepidoptera species that display a narrow niche breadth (food and habitat), slow development and sedentary behaviour (e.g., Mattila et al. 2006, 2011; Warren et al. 2001; Bartonova et al. 2014; WallisDeVries 2014).”
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“However, sedentary insects with specialized niches cannot properly track the changing climate (Warren et al. 2001).”
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BackgroundExtinction cascades partially estimate herbivore losses in a complete Lepidoptera–plant food web
Pearse, I. S., & Altermatt, F. (2013) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/12-1075.1 · Cited by 46
Wright, L. J., Hoblyn, R. A., Green, R. E., Bowden, C. G. R., Mallord, J. W., Sutherland, W. J., & Dolman, P. M. (2009) · Journal of Animal Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01582.x · Cited by 48
“How- ever, human activity has many other environmental impacts that may limit species’ potential to respond to climate change (Sala et al. 2000;Warren et al. 2001).*Correspondence author.”
Eco‐evolutionary consequences of habitat warming and fragmentation in communities
Faillace, C. A., Sentis, A., & Montoya, J. M. (2021) · Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · doi:10.1111/brv.12732 · Cited by 43
Sunde, J., Franzén, M., Betzholtz, P., Francioli, Y. Z., Pettersson, L., Pöyry, J., Ryrholm, N., & Forsman, A. (2023) · Communications Biology · doi:10.1038/s42003-023-04967-z · Cited by 54
“In response to altered conditions, species and populations can move to more suitable areas, adapt, or in the worst case, go extinct 4 – 12 .”
Rumohr, Q., Baden, C. U., Bergtold, M., Marx, M. T., Oellers, J., Schade, M., Toschki, A., & Maus, C. (2023) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0289565 · Cited by 47
Brambilla, M., & Gobbi, M. (2013) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00263.x · Cited by 45
High Bee and Wasp Diversity in a Heterogeneous Tropical Farming System Compared to Protected Forest
Schüepp, C., Rittiner, S., & Entling, M. H. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052109 · Cited by 47
Desender, K., Dekoninck, W., Dufrêne, M., & Maes, D. (2010) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.03.039 · Cited by 45
Faster poleward range shifts in moths with more variable colour patterns
Forsman, A., Betzholtz, P., & Franzén, M. (2016) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep36265 · Cited by 45
Snell‐Rood, E. C., & Steck, M. K. (2018) · Animal Behaviour · doi:10.1016/j.anbehav.2018.08.007 · Cited by 45
Sandin, L., Schmidt‐Kloiber, A., Svenning, J., Jeppesen, E., & Friberg, N. R. (2014) · Current Zoology · doi:10.1093/czoolo/60.2.221 · Cited by 42
“The abundance of specialised habitat species may decline, whereas fast-moving habitat generalist species could colonise new ecosystems beyond the northern border or expand their actual distribution (Parmesan et al., 1999; Warren et al., 2001).”
BackgroundGupta, H., Tiwari, C., & Diwakar, S. (2019) · Tropical Ecology · doi:10.1007/s42965-019-00019-y · Cited by 44
“They are good indicators of climatic, atmospheric and seasonal ecological changes (Dennis 1993; Warren et al. 2001).”
BackgroundChessman, B. C. (2011) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02647.x · Cited by 45
“Warren et al. (2001) and Mattila et al. (2011) found that distributions of British and Finnish butterflies that are dietary and habitat specialists have declined more than those of 966 Journal of Biogeography 39, 957–969 ª 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd generalists, apparently because generalists…”
BackgroundRapid spread of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi across Europe: a consequence of climate change?
Kumschick, S., Fronzek, S., Entling, M. H., & Nentwig, W. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0139-0 · Cited by 44
“A comparable phenomenon is also known for some butterflies (Warren et al. 2001), where the authors studied responses of British species to climate and habitat change.”
BackgroundWallisDeVries, M. F. (2014) · Basic and Applied Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.baae.2014.05.001 · Cited by 44
Reid, B. N., & Peery, M. Z. (2014) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.12243 · Cited by 46
“…across species with varying life histories have shown more severe effects of contemporary habitat fragmentation in less mobile species (Hoehn et al., 2007; Callens et al., 2011), and more mobile species are often better equipped to deal with the effects of global change (Warren et al., 2001).”
BackgroundCabral, J. S., Jeltsch, F., Thuiller, W., Higgins, S. I., Midgley, G. F., Rebelo, A. G., Rouget, M., & Schurr, F. M. (2012) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.12011 · Cited by 44
“Moreover, climate change and habitat loss are likely to mutually reinforce their adverse impacts on the persistence of species and populations (Warren et al., 2001; Dirnböck et al., 2003; Higgins et al., 2003a; Travis, 2003; Opdam & Wascher, 2004; Pyke, 2004; Franco et al., 2006; Pompe et al., 2008; Yates et al., 2010…”
BackgroundBraby, M. F., & Williams, M. R. (2015) · Austral Entomology · doi:10.1111/aen.12158 · Cited by 44
“practices or climate change (Warren et al. 2001), indices that are frequently unobtainable for most other insect groups (New 1991a, 2009; New et al.”
BackgroundLazarina, M., Sgardelis, S. P., Tscheulin, T., Devalez, J., Mizerakis, V., Kallimanis, A. S., Papakonstantinou, S., Kyriazis, T., & Petanidou, T. (2017) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-016-1228-1 · Cited by 44
Costa, W. F., Ribeiro, M. S., Saraiva, A. M., Imperatriz-Fonseca, V. L., & Giannini, T. C. (2017) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2017.12.034 · Cited by 44
Antão, L. H., Pöyry, J., Leinonen, R., & Roslin, T. V. (2020) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.13073 · Cited by 45
“Furthemore, how such range shifts unfold likely depends on species traits, such as dispersal ability, and on the availability of suitable habitats (Pöyry et al., 2009; Warren et al., 2001).”
Pinsky, M. L., Newsome, S., Dickerson, B. R., FANG, Y., van Tuinen, M., Kennett, D. J., Ream, R. R., & Hadly, E. A. (2010) · Molecular Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-294x.2010.04671.x · Cited by 44
“In British butterflies threatened by habitat loss and climate change, mobile species increased their distribution over the past 30 years, while non-mobile species have declined (Warren et al. 2001).”
BackgroundHybridisation and climate change: brown argus butterflies in Britain ( Polyommatus subgenus Aricia )
Mallet, J., Wynne, I. R., & Thomas, C. D. (2010) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/j.1752-4598.2010.00122.x · Cited by 44
“Climate change is today resulting in widespread changes to the distributions of species, including insects (e.g., Parmesan et al., 1999; Warren et al., 2001; Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Hickling et al., 2006; Chen et al., 2009).”
BackgroundSelf-citationThe role of ecological interactions in determining species ranges and range changes
Stewart, A. J. A., Bantock, T., Beckmann, B. C., Botham, M. S., Hubble, D. S., & Roy, D. B. (2015) · Biological Journal of the Linnean Society · doi:10.1111/bij.12543 · Cited by 43
“By contrast, species with limited dispersal ability, specialist habitat requirements or close associations with habitats that are highly fragmented may be unable to do so (Warren et al., 2001).”
BackgroundSelf-citationZou, Y., Sang, W., Haicheng, Z., Huang, L., & Axmacher, J. C. (2013) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/icad.12039 · Cited by 47
“In comparison to primarily phytophagous insect groups whose distribution is partly restricted by the distribution of their potential host plant species (Warren et al., 2001), the distribution of predatory insects such as many ground beetle species is potentially more variable.”
BackgroundKozlov, M. V., Stekolshchikov, A. V., Söderman, G., Labina, E. S., Zverev, V., & Zvereva, E. L. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12682 · Cited by 43
“Consequently, the ongoing expansion of distribution ranges towards the North, reported for many insect species (Parmesan et al., 1999; Warren et al., 2001), can be expected to contribute to an overall increase in herbivory.”
BackgroundFranzén, M., & Öckinger, E. (2011) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-011-9410-y · Cited by 43
“Given the extended 50 year gap, between the study periods, the insect communities in Padjelanta National Park appeared surprisingly stable, particularly compared to reported community changes in temperate regions of Western Europe (Warren et al. 2001; Thomas et al. 2004b) and southern Sweden (Öckinger et al. 2006; Fr…”
BackgroundTiple, A. D., Khurad, A. M., & Dennis, R. L. H. (2011) · Journal of Insect Science · doi:10.1673/031.011.6501 · Cited by 43
Metadata
- Authors
- Warren, M. S., Hill, J. K., Thomas, J. A., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., Roy, D. B., Telfer, M. G., Jeffcoate, S., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G., Willis, S. G., Greatorex-Davies, J. N., Moss, D., & Thomas, C. D.
- Affiliations
- Butterfly Conservation (GB)
- Durham University (GB)
- Dorset Green Technology Park (GB)
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Thomas, C. D.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2001-11
- Volume
- 414
- Issue
- 6859
- Pages
- 65-69
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W1620630482
- Cited by
- 1,333
- References
- 33
- Citations by year
- 2026: 23 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 57 · 2020: 53 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 59 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 76 · 2015: 75 · 2014: 93 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 76
- FWCI
- 33.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- orcid.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Insect Science › Lepidoptera: Biology and Taxonomy
- Keywords
- butterflies, climate change, habitat loss, range shifts, species distribution, population abundance, habitat generalists, habitat specialists, global warming, habitat degradation, Great Britain
- MeSH terms
- Adaptation, Physiological, Animals, Butterflies, Climate, Environment, United Kingdom, Population Dynamics, Seasons, Species Specificity
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