Cited by 1,333Species Distribution and Climate ChangeEcology and Vegetation Dynamics StudiesLepidoptera: Biology and Taxonomy

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Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change

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Warren, M. S., Hill, J. K., Thomas, J. A., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., Roy, D. B., Telfer, M. G., Jeffcoate, S., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G., Willis, S. G., Greatorex-Davies, J. N., Moss, D., Thomas, C. D.·2001·Nature

DOI 10.1038/35102054

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Abstract

Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage. Here we evaluated changes in the distribution sizes and abundances of 46 species of butterflies that approach their northern climatic range margins in Britain-where changes in climate and habitat are opposing forces. These insects might be expected to have responded positively to climate warming over the past 30 years, yet three-quarters of them declined: negative responses to habitat loss have outweighed positive responses to climate warming. Half of the species that were mobile and habitat generalists increased their distribution sites over this period (consistent with a climate explanation), whereas the other generalists and 89% of the habitat specialists declined in distribution size (consistent with habitat limitation). Changes in population abundances closely matched changes in distributions. The dual forces of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced numbers of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists.

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New Developments in the Study of Species Distribution
Acevedo, P., Jiménez‐Valverde, A., Aragón, P., & Niamir, A. (2016) · Wildlife research monographs · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-27912-1_7 · Cited by 25
Taxonomic and functional diversity of butterflies along an altitudinal gradient in two NATURA 2000 sites in Greece
Kaltsas, D., Dede, K., Giannaka, J., Nasopoulou, T., Kechagioglou, S., Grigoriadou, E., Raptis, D., Damos, P. T., Vasiliadis, I., Christopoulos, V., et al. (2018) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/icad.12292 · Cited by 25
“They are also one of the most threatened animal groups, due to habitat loss and climate change (Warren et al., 2001; Thomas et al., 2004).”
Background
Allele surfing shaped the genetic structure of the European pond turtle via colonization and population expansion across the Iberian Peninsula from Africa
Pereira, P., Teixeira, J., & Velo‐Antón, G. (2018) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/jbi.13412 · Cited by 25
Elevated Calf Mortality and Long-Term Responses of Wild Bottlenose Dolphins to Extreme Climate Events: Impacts of Foraging Specialization and Provisioning
Mann, J., Foroughirad, V., McEntee, M. H. F., Miketa, M. L., Evans, T. C., Karniski, C., Krzyszczyk, E., Patterson, E. M., Strohman, J. C., & Wallen, M. M. (2021) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.617550 · Cited by 28
Unveil the unseen: Using LiDAR to capture time‐lag dynamics in the herbaceous layer of European temperate forests
Lenoir, J., Gril, E., Sylvie Durrieu, B., Horen, H., Laslier, M., Lembrechts, J. J., Zellweger, F., Alleaume, S., Brasseur, B., Buridant, J., et al. (2022) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.13837 · Cited by 25
“…anthropogenic forcing factors such as past land- use changes and historical changes in forest management practices that can have both compounding and confounding effects with other more recent environmental change drivers (Forister et al., 2010; Guo et al., 2018; Larsen, 2012; Warren et al., 2001).”
Background
Moth declines are most severe in broadleaf woodlands despite a net gain in habitat availability
Blumgart, D., Botham, M. S., Menéndez, R., & Bell, J. R. (2022) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/icad.12578 · Cited by 24
“…of recent climate change are complex and vary spatially and across species (Menéndez, 2007; Wilson & Fox, 2020), with positive (Fox et al., 2014; Warren et al., 2001), negative (Halsch et al., 2021; Salcido et al., 2020) and in some cases catastrophic (Janzen & Hallwachs, 2021) effects reported.”
Background
The rapid northward shift of the range margin of a Mediterranean parasitoid insect (Hymenoptera) associated with regional climate warming
Delava, É., Allemand, R., Léger, L., Fleury, F., & Gibert, P. (2014) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/jbi.12314 · Cited by 25
“…habitat continuity, local species interactions and the trophic level of the species considered, may either accelerate or hinder the expansion of the geographical range in response to warming (Thomas & Harrison, 1992; Davis et al., 1998; Hill et al., 2001; Warren et al., 2001; Lawson et al., 2012).”
Background
Spatial distribution and range expansion of the Tawny Coster butterfly, Acraea terpsicore (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), in South‐East Asia and Australia
Braby, M. F., Bertelsmeier, C., Sanderson, C., & Thistleton, B. (2013) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/icad.12038 · Cited by 31
“…of temperate butterflies in the northern hemisphere have revealed for many species shifts in range size and/or range boundaries towards higher latitudes or altitudes consistent with predictions of global warming (Hill et al., 1999, 2002; Parmesan et al., 1999; Warren et al., 2001; Thomas, 2010).”
BackgroundInfluential
Cross-taxa generalities in the relationship between population abundance and ambient temperatures
Bowler, D. E., Haase, P., Hof, C., Kröncke, I., Baert, L., Dekoninck, W., Domisch, S., Hendrickx, F., Hickler, T., Neumann, H., et al. (2017) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2017.0870 · Cited by 24
Biological diversity: Distinct distributions can lead to the maximization of Rao’s quadratic entropy
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“In conservation ecology, numerous recent papers have highlighted how the loss of specialist species has favoured generalists (e.g. Warren et al. (2001)).”
Background
Butterflies and day-flying moths in a fragmented urban landscape, south-west Western Australia: patterns of species richness
Williams, M. R. (2009) · Pacific Conservation Biology · doi:10.1071/pc090032 · Cited by 25
Ten years of the resource-based habitat paradigm: the biotope-habitat issue and implications for conserving butterfly diversity
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The interacting effects of forestry and climate change on the demography of a group-living bird population
Layton‐Matthews, K., Özgül, A., & Griesser, M. (2018) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s00442-018-4100-z · Cited by 24
Climate and land‐use interactively shape butterfly diversity in tropical rainforest and savanna ecosystems of southwestern China
Miao, B., Peng, Y., Yang, D., Kubota, Y., Economo, E. P., & Liu, C. (2020) · Insect Science · doi:10.1111/1744-7917.12824 · Cited by 24
“…studies that have examined the importance of climate and land-use intensity on biodiversity, which have generally found that effects of land-use intensity on species are greater than the effects of climate change (Sala et al., 2000; Warren et al., 2001; Franco et al., 2006; Jetz et al., 2007).”
BackgroundResult
Are biodiversity losses valued differently when they are caused by human activities? A meta-analysis of the non-use valuation literature
Nobel, A., Lizin, S., Brouwer, R., Bruns, S. B., Stern, D. I., & Malina, R. M. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab8ec2 · Cited by 25
The effects of a decade of agri‐environment intervention in a lowland farm landscape on population trends of birds and butterflies
Redhead, J. W., Hinsley, S. A., Botham, M. S., Broughton, R. K., Freeman, S. N., Bellamy, P. E., SIRIWARDENA, G. M., Randle, Z., Nowakowski, M., Heard, M. S., et al. (2022) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2664.14246 · Cited by 24
Minor changes in orthopteran assemblages of Central European protected dry grasslands during the last 40 years
Schuch, S., Bock, J., Leuschner, C., Schaefer, M., & Wesche, K. (2011) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-011-9379-6 · Cited by 24
Correlations between landscape attributes and ecological traits of Lepidoptera communities in olive groves
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Potential implications of future climate and land‐cover changes for the fate and distribution of persistent organic pollutants in Europe
Paul, A. G., Hammen, V., Hickler, T., Karlson, U., Jones, K. C., & Sweetman, A. J. (2011) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00547.x · Cited by 24
Cooperation in species: Interplay of population regulation and extinction through global population dynamics database
Bhowmick, A. R., Saha, B., Chattopadhyay, J., Ray, S., & Bhattacharya, S. (2015) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.05.023 · Cited by 24
Occurrence pattern of Pararge aegeria (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) with respect to local habitat suitability, climate and landscape structure
Schweiger, O., Dormann, C. F., Bailey, D., & Frenzel, M. (2006) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-005-6057-7 · Cited by 24
Effects of anthropogenic disturbances on the diversity and composition of the butterfly fauna of sites in the Sango Bay and Iriiri areas, Uganda: implications for conservation
Akite, P. (2008) · African Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2028.2008.00923.x · Cited by 24
First Estimates of Extinction Risk from Climate Change
Thomas, C. D. (2012) · Island Press/Center for Resource Economics eBooks · doi:10.5822/978-1-61091-182-5_2 · Cited by 23
Self-citation
How complete are insect inventories? An assessment of the british butterfly database highlighting the influence of dynamic distribution shifts on sampling completeness
Sánchez‐Fernández, D., Fox, R., Dennis, R. L. H., & Lobo, J. M. (2021) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-021-02122-w · Cited by 23
Self-citation
Plant Microevolution and Conservation in Human-influenced Ecosystems
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Modelling potential success of conservation translocations of a specialist grassland butterfly
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Importance of Native Grassland Habitat for Den-Site Selection of Indian Foxes in a Fragmented Landscape
Punjabi, G. A., Chellam, R., & Vanak, A. T. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0076410 · Cited by 23
Estimating the population size of specialised solitary bees
LARSSON, M. R., & Franzén, M. (2008) · Ecological Entomology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2311.2007.00956.x · Cited by 23
“The method described by Pollard (1977) is widely used for butterfly monitoring and constitutes a tool for detecting changes over time ( Baguette et al. , 2000; Hill et al. , 2001a,b, 2002 ; Roy et al. , 2001; Warren et al. , 2001; Thomas et al. , 2004a,b ).”
Method
British butterfly distributions and the 2010 target
Asher, J., Fox, R., & Warren, M. S. (2010) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-010-9346-7 · Cited by 23
“The decline of our most threatened species continues the trend noted in previous publications (Asher et al. 2001; Warren et al. 2001; Fox et al. 2006).”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialSelf-citation
Consequences of habitat change and resource selection specialization for population limitation in cavity‐nesting birds
Martin, T. E. (2014) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2664.12375 · Cited by 23
“This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. change (Warren et al. 2001; Harcourt, Copeton & Parks 2002; Korkeam€aki & Suhonen 2002; Julliard, Jiguet & Couvet 2004; Munday 2004).”
Background
Integrating Parasites and Pathogens into the Study of Geographic Range Limits
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Movement, demography and behaviour of a highly mobile species: A case study of the black-veined white, Aporia crataegi (Lepidoptera: Pieridae)
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Nutritional stress reduces flight performance and exploratory behavior in a butterfly
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“In the long term, it may allow individuals to track their shifting climate niche (Warren et al., 2001; Hickling et al., 2006) and to maintain metapopulation connectivity (Hanski & Gilpin, 1997; Baguette et al., 2013).”
Background
Wing morphological responses to latitude and colonisation in a range expanding butterfly
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Self-citation
Trends in Biodiversity in Europe and the Impact of Land-use Change
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CLIMATE GRADIENTS EXPLAIN CHANGES IN PLANT COMMUNITY COMPOSITION OF THE FOREST UNDERSTOREY : AN EXTRAPOLATION AFTER CLIMATE WARMING
der Veken, S. V., Bossuyt, B., & Hermy, M. (2004) · Ghent University Academic Bibliography (Ghent University) · Cited by 23

Authors: Warren, M. S., Hill, J. K., Thomas, J. A., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., Roy, D. B., Telfer, M. G., Jeffcoate, S., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G., Willis, S. G., Greatorex-Davies, J. N., Moss, D., & Thomas, C. D.
Affiliations: Butterfly Conservation (GB)
Durham University (GB)
Dorset Green Technology Park (GB)
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
University of Leeds (GB)
Corresponding author: Thomas, C. D.
ORCID: Hill, J. K.
Thomas, J. A.
Fox, R.
Huntley, B.
Roy, D. B.
Willis, S. G.
Thomas, C. D.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2001-11
Volume: 414
Issue: 6859
Pages: 65-69
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/35102054
OpenAlex: W1620630482
Cited by: 1,333
References: 33
Citations by year: 2026: 23 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 57 · 2020: 53 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 59 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 76 · 2015: 75 · 2014: 93 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 76
FWCI: 33.89
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
orcid.org
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion)
Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders: Natural Environment Research Council
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Insect Science › Lepidoptera: Biology and Taxonomy
Keywords: butterflies, climate change, habitat loss, range shifts, species distribution, population abundance, habitat generalists, habitat specialists, global warming, habitat degradation, Great Britain
MeSH terms: Adaptation, Physiological, Animals, Butterflies, Climate, Environment, United Kingdom, Population Dynamics, Seasons, Species Specificity

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Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change

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