Cited by 1,333Species Distribution and Climate ChangeEcology and Vegetation Dynamics StudiesLepidoptera: Biology and Taxonomy

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Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change

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Warren, M. S., Hill, J. K., Thomas, J. A., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., Roy, D. B., Telfer, M. G., Jeffcoate, S., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G., Willis, S. G., Greatorex-Davies, J. N., Moss, D., Thomas, C. D.·2001·Nature

DOI 10.1038/35102054

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Abstract

Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage. Here we evaluated changes in the distribution sizes and abundances of 46 species of butterflies that approach their northern climatic range margins in Britain-where changes in climate and habitat are opposing forces. These insects might be expected to have responded positively to climate warming over the past 30 years, yet three-quarters of them declined: negative responses to habitat loss have outweighed positive responses to climate warming. Half of the species that were mobile and habitat generalists increased their distribution sites over this period (consistent with a climate explanation), whereas the other generalists and 89% of the habitat specialists declined in distribution size (consistent with habitat limitation). Changes in population abundances closely matched changes in distributions. The dual forces of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced numbers of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists.

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“It is clear that some species have already responded to recent climate change trends by changing their distribution (Warren et al. 2001; Walther et al. 2002; Hickling et al. 2006; P€oyry et al. 2008), phenology (Hughes 2000; Parmesan et al.”
Background
Changes in the distributions of epiphytic lichens in southern Sweden using a new statistical method
Lättman, H., Milberg, P., Palmer, M. W., & Mattsson, J. (2009) · Nordic Journal of Botany · doi:10.1111/j.1756-1051.2009.00425.x · Cited by 12
A winner in the Anthropocene: changing host plant distribution explains geographical range expansion in the gulf fritillary butterfly
Halsch, C. A., Shapiro, A. M., Thorne, J. H., Waetjen, D. P., & Forister, M. L. (2020) · Ecological Entomology · doi:10.1111/een.12845 · Cited by 14
“Ectotherms, including butterflies and other insects, are particularly sensitive to changes in the climate and are exemplar species for the study of these issues (Parmesan et al., 1999; Warren et al., 2001).”
Background
Climate Change and UV-B Impacts on Arctic Tundra and Polar Desert Ecosystems
Callaghan, T. V., Björn, L. O., Chernov, Y., Chapin, T., Christensen, T. R., Huntley, B. J., Ims, R. A., Jolly, D., Jonasson, S., Matveyeva, N., et al. (2004) · Cited by 12
Self-citation
Latitudinal and Elevational Range Shifts Under Contemporary Climate Change
Lenoir, J., Svenning, J., & Sheffer, M. M. (2023) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-822562-2.00386-8 · Cited by 13
Crossing or bypassing the Andes: a commentary on recent range extensions of cis-Andean birds to the West of the Andes of Colombia
Avendaño, J. E., Cortés-Herrera, J. O., Briceño-L, E. R., & Rincón-Guarín, D. A. (2013) · Dialnet (Universidad de la Rioja) · Cited by 11
Grazing conserves threatened carabid beetles in semi-natural calcareous grasslands better than mowing, especially at low intensities
Barber, N. A., Sauer, N., Krauß, J., & Boetzl, F. A. (2022) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-022-02463-0 · Cited by 11
“Populations of specialist insect species may be expected to be more strongly affected by local-scale habitat characteristics and habitat area than generalist species (Warren et al. 2001).”
Yearly weather variation and surface temperature drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of a threatened butterfly and its host plant
Franzén, M., Francioli, Y. Z., Askling, J., Kindvall, O., Johansson, V., & Forsman, A. (2022) · Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.3389/fevo.2022.917991 · Cited by 11
“In response to unfavorable temperature conditions, species and populations can move to more suitable areas, undergo phenology shifts, hide below or above the surface, enter another life stage, adapt, or in the worst case, become extinct (Warren et al., 2001; Walther et al., 2002).”
Background
Differential response of fire on the community dynamics of five insect taxa in a tropical mountaintop forest archipelago
Kuchenbecker, J., Camarota, F., da Silva, P. G., Perillo, L. N., Beirão, M. D. V., de Castro, F. S., Fernandes, G. W., do Espírito-Santo, M. M., Santos, N. C., Cardoso, I. G. S., et al. (2023) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.10806 · Cited by 10
“This is especially true for ground-dwelling insects such as most ants and dung beetles, which are predicted to be most affected by fire-driven habitat loss (Koltz et al., 2018; Warren et al., 2001).”
Background
Oviposition preferences and larval survival of the marsh fritillary butterfly: The adverse impact of grazing
Johansson, V., Säwenfalk, D. S., Bergman, K., Kindvall, O., Askling, J., & Franzén, M. (2024) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/icad.12734 · Cited by 11
“Grassland butterflies are one species group that has experienced negative population trends due to the loss and changed management of semi-natural grasslands (Maes & Van Dyck, 2001; Warren et al., 2001).”
Topological structure of plant-bee networks in four Mexican environments
Ramírez-Flores, V. A., Villanueva‐Gutiérrez, R., Roubik, D. W., Vergara, C., Lara-Rodríguez, N. Z., Dáttilo, W., Ferrer, M. E. B., & Rico‐Gray, V. (2015) · Sociobiology · doi:10.13102/sociobiology.v62i1.56-64 · Cited by 11
“collected in few sites) and cause more specialized interaction profiles (McPeek, 1996; Warren et al., 2001).”
Background
Can phenological shifts compensate for adverse effects of climate change on butterfly metapopulation viability?
Cormont, A., Jochem, R., Malinowska, A. H., Verboom, J., WallisDeVries, M. F., & Opdam, P. F. M. (2012) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.003 · Cited by 11
“Climate change and habitat fragmentation have been presented as amplifying forces (Opdam and Wascher, 2004; Travis, 2003; Warren et al., 2001).”
Background
Influence of life‐history traits on the occurrence of carnivores within exoticEucalyptusplantations
Teixeira, D., Guillera‐Arroita, G., Hilário, R. R., Fonseca, C. M. D., & Rosalino, L. M. (2020) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.13114 · Cited by 11
“…Julliard, & Devictor, 2011), for example plants (Fischer & Stöcklin, 1997; Rooney, Wiegmann, Rogers, & Waller, 2004); some insects as butterflies (Warren et al., 2001), carabid beetles (Kotze & O’Hara, 2003) and bumblebees (Goulson, Hanley, Darvill, Ellis, & Knight, 2005); coral reef fish…”
Vegetation cover restricts habitat suitability predictions of endemic Brazilian Atlantic Forest birds
de Oliveira‐Silva, A. E., Piratelli, A. J., Zurell, D., & da Silva, F. R. (2021) · Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.pecon.2021.09.002 · Cited by 11
“Despite the devastating effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity, affecting species’ survival and promoting range shifts (Fahrig, 2003; Warren et al., 2001; Jetz et al., 2007), many species range predictions rely mainly on climate predictors.”
BackgroundResultInfluential
Comparative genetic and demographic responses to climate change in three peatland butterflies in the Jura massif
Kebaïli, C., Sherpa, S., Guéguen, M., Renaud, J., Rioux, D., & Després, L. (2023) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110332 · Cited by 11
Untangling interactions: do temperature and habitat fragmentation gradients simultaneously impact biotic relationships?
Lakeman-Fraser, P., & Ewers, R. M. (2014) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2014.0687 · Cited by 11
“Climate change and land-use modification are the two dominant drivers of global environmental change [11,15], altering population dynamics [16], restricting species distributions [17] and influencing food web dynamics [9].”
Background
Exploring Substantive Interfaces between Spatial Planning and Ecological Networks in Germany
Leibenath, M. (2011) · Planning Practice and Research · doi:10.1080/02697459.2011.580110 · Cited by 11
“Another rationale in favour of ecological networks stems from deliberations about the adaptation of ecosystems to climate change: the more easily populations and communities can shift their ranges, the better can they react to changing habitat conditions (Warren et al., 2001; Opdam et al., 2006).”
Background
How life history affects threat status: Requirements of two Onobrychis-feeding lycaenid butterflies, Polyommatus damon and Polyommatus thersites, in the Czech Republic
Šlancarová, J., Bednářová, B., Beneš, J., & Konvička, M. (2012) · Biologia · doi:10.2478/s11756-012-0109-7 · Cited by 11
Conservation of grassland butterflies in Finland under a changing climate
Tainio, A., Heikkinen, R. K., Heliölä, J., Hunt, A. S. P., Watkiss, P., Fronzek, S., Leikola, N., Lötjönen, S., Mashkina, O., & Carter, T. R. (2014) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0684-y · Cited by 11
Increasing abundance and diversity in the moth assemblage of east Loch Lomondside, Scotland over a 35 year period
Salama, N. K. G., Knowler, J. T., & Adams, C. E. (2006) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-006-9029-6 · Cited by 11
On the Ecology and Conservation of Sericinus montelus (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) – Its Threats in Xiaolongshan Forests Area (China)
Li, X., Luo, Y., Yang, H., Yang, Q., Settele, J., & Schweiger, O. (2016) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0150833 · Cited by 11
Species traits explain long‐term population trends of Finnish cuckoo wasps (Hymenoptera: Chrysididae)
Paukkunen, J., Pöyry, J., & Kuussaari, M. (2017) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/icad.12241 · Cited by 11
“The lower occurrence trends of rare and narrow-ranged species could be a sign of biotic homogenisation, where abundant and widespread species gradually replace other taxa (Warren et al., 2001; Ekroos et al., 2010; Powney et al., 2015).”
Background
Population assessment and foraging ecology of nest aggregations of the rare solitary bee, Eucera longicornis at Gatwick Airport, and implications for their management
Hennessy, G., Goulson, D., & Ratnieks, F. L. W. (2020) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-020-00266-8 · Cited by 11
“In the UK, 34/46 butterfly species declined in distribution area between 1970 and 1999 (Warren et al. 2001).”
Background
Reproductive phenology and seasonal mass dynamics of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) at their northern range limit
Kusch, J. M., Conway, S. E., Kapchinske, A., & Lane, J. E. (2021) · Canadian Journal of Zoology · doi:10.1139/cjz-2020-0054 · Cited by 11
Ecological monitoring and indicator taxa: butterfly communities in heterogeneous landscapes of the Western Ghats and Malabar coast, India
Naik, D., Rao, R. S. P., Kunte, K. K., & Mustak, M. S. (2022) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-022-00368-5 · Cited by 11
Climate Change and Forensic Entomology
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Possible combined effects of climate change, deforestation, and harvesting on the epiphyte Catopsis compacta : a multidisciplinary approach
del Castillo, R. F., Trujillo‐Argueta, S., Rivera-García, R., Ocampo, Z. G., & Mondragón, D. (2013) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.765 · Cited by 11
“For instance, habitat degradation and climate change are likely to decrease habitat specialists and benefit some mobile and generalist species of British butterflies (Warren et al. 2001).”
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Assessing abundance patterns of specialized bog butterflies over 12 years in northern Wisconsin USA
Swengel, S. R., & Swengel, A. B. (2014) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-014-9731-8 · Cited by 11
“Dramatic variation in abundance usually appeared to correspond to the frequently reported fluctuations in butterfly abundance related to climatic variation (examples in Dennis 1993; Pollard and Yates 1993; Roy et al. 2001; Warren et al. 2001).”
Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables
Lucy, D., Robertson, I., Aykroyd, R. G., & Pollard, A. M. (2008) · Applied Geochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.apgeochem.2008.04.008 · Cited by 11
Conserving Europe’s most endangered butterfly: the Macedonian Grayling (Pseudochazara cingovskii)
Verovnik, R., Micevski, B., Maes, D., Wynhoff, I., van Swaay, C., & Warren, M. S. (2013) · Journal of Insect Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10841-013-9576-6 · Cited by 11
Self-citation
Can greenhouses eliminate the development of cold resistance of the leafminers?
Chen, B., & Kang, L. (2005) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s00442-005-0051-2 · Cited by 11
Mapping cryptic invaders and invasibility of tropical forest ecosystems : Chromolaena odorata in Nepal
Joshi, C. (2006) · University of Twente Research Information · doi:10.18174/121795 · Cited by 11
Hot topics in butterfly research: Current knowledge and gaps in understanding of the impacts of temperature on butterflies
Ashe‐Jepson, E., Bru, E., Connell, E., Dixit, M. K., Hargrave, J., Lavitt, T., Lam, M., Prosser, R., Roberts, B. J., Thompson, B., et al. (2023) · Insect Conservation and Diversity · doi:10.1111/icad.12704 · Cited by 10
“Butterflies make a good model group to investigate the effects of temperature on insects, as they are well-studied (Sparks & Yates, 1997; Warren et al., 2001), fecund, and have generally high dispersal as adults, relatively resolved systematics, and short generation times.”
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Changes in plant diversity on the Chinese Loess Plateau since the Last Glacial Maximum
Zhao, S., & Ding, Z. (2014) · Chinese Science Bulletin · doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0541-x · Cited by 10
Biological Diversity: Current Status and Conservation Policies
Kumar, V., Kumar, S., Kamboj, N., Payum, T., Kumar, P., & Kumari, S. (2021) · Agro Environ Media - Agriculture and Ennvironmental Science Academy, Haridwar, India eBooks · doi:10.26832/aesa-2021-bdcp · Cited by 10
Effects of grazing on macro-moth assemblages in two different biomes in Mongolia
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Mechanisms underpinning community stability along a latitudinal gradient: Insights from a niche‐based approach
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“Synchrony was the most consistent mechanism explaining differences in community stability and accounted for the diversity– stability relationship in European butterfly communities.”
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Authors: Warren, M. S., Hill, J. K., Thomas, J. A., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., Roy, D. B., Telfer, M. G., Jeffcoate, S., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G., Willis, S. G., Greatorex-Davies, J. N., Moss, D., & Thomas, C. D.
Affiliations: Butterfly Conservation (GB)
Durham University (GB)
Dorset Green Technology Park (GB)
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
University of Leeds (GB)
Corresponding author: Thomas, C. D.
ORCID: Hill, J. K.
Thomas, J. A.
Fox, R.
Huntley, B.
Roy, D. B.
Willis, S. G.
Thomas, C. D.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2001-11
Volume: 414
Issue: 6859
Pages: 65-69
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/35102054
OpenAlex: W1620630482
Cited by: 1,333
References: 33
Citations by year: 2026: 23 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 57 · 2020: 53 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 59 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 76 · 2015: 75 · 2014: 93 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 76
FWCI: 33.89
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
orcid.org
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion)
Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders: Natural Environment Research Council
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Insect Science › Lepidoptera: Biology and Taxonomy
Keywords: butterflies, climate change, habitat loss, range shifts, species distribution, population abundance, habitat generalists, habitat specialists, global warming, habitat degradation, Great Britain
MeSH terms: Adaptation, Physiological, Animals, Butterflies, Climate, Environment, United Kingdom, Population Dynamics, Seasons, Species Specificity

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Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change

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