Cited by 1,978Hydrology and Drought AnalysisPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsClimate variability and models

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Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

Sheffield, Justin, Wood, Eric F., Roderick, Michael L.·2012·Nature

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Abstract

Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years.

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Background
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Method
Characteristics of dew events in an arid artificial oasis cropland and a sub-humid cropland in China
Meng, Y., & Wen, X. (2016) · Journal of Arid Land · doi:10.1007/s40333-016-0006-y · Cited by 26
Natural variation in life history strategy ofArabidopsis thalianadetermines stress responses to drought and insects of different feeding guilds
Olivas, N. H. D., Frago, E., Thoen, M. P. M., Kloth, K. J., Becker, F. F. M., van Loon, J. J. A., Gort, G., Keurentjes, J. J. B., van Heerwaarden, J., & Dicke, M. (2017) · Molecular Ecology · doi:10.1111/mec.14100 · Cited by 33
“…access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. temperatures, drought and flooding events (Zhao & Running 2010; Sheffield et al. 2012; Wheeler & von Braun 2013).”
Background
Trends in ecosystem recovery from drought
Seneviratne, S. I., & Ciais, P. (2017) · Nature · doi:10.1038/548164a · Cited by 26
A probabilistic assessment of agricultural water scarcity in a semi-arid and snowmelt-dominated river basin under climate change
Moursi, H., Kim, D., & Kaluarachchi, J. J. (2017) · Agricultural Water Management · doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2017.08.010 · Cited by 26
High‐Resolution Regional Reanalysis in China: Evaluation of 1 Year Period Experiments
Zhang, Q., Yinong, P., Wang, S., Xu, J., & Tang, J. (2017) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2017jd027476 · Cited by 26
Ecosystem water use efficiency response to drought over southwest China
Mokhtar, A., He, H., Alsafadi, K., Mohammed, S., He, W., Li, Y., Zhao, H., Abdullahi, N. M., & Gyasi‐Agyei, Y. (2021) · Ecohydrology · doi:10.1002/eco.2317 · Cited by 26
Land‐Atmosphere Coupling Constrains Increases to Potential Evaporation in a Warming Climate: Implications at Local and Global Scales
Kim, Y., García, M., & Johnson, M. S. (2023) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef002886 · Cited by 25
“As such, these PE equations are widely used to predict and analyze changes in drought, aridity, and water availability in relation to a changing climate (Dai, 2013; Greve et al., 2014; Marvel et al., 2019; McEvoy et al., 2020; Milly & Dunne, 2020; Piemontese et al., 2019; Sheffield et al., 2012; Su et al., 2018; Trenb…”
Background
Trends and Variability in Temperature and Related Extreme Indices in Rwanda during the Past Four Decades
Safari, B., & Sebaziga, J. N. (2023) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos14091449 · Cited by 25
Evaluating multifaceted effects of watershed properties and human activities on drought propagation in the Wei River Basin with an integrated framework
Mao, R., Li, B., Song, J., Li, Q., Li, N., Long, Y., & Feng, J. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171712 · Cited by 25
Three Paradoxes Related to Potential Evapotranspiration in a Warming Climate
Wang, K., Bai, P., & Liu, X. (2025) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-025-00203-4 · Cited by 27
“Existing studies on the ‘drought par-adox’ primarily focus on global average changes in drought indices [4, 38, 39], which serve as proxies for global mean drought conditions.”
Hydroclimate Variations in Central and Monsoonal Asia over the Past 700 Years
Fang, K., Chen, F., Sen, A. K., Davi, N., Huang, W., Li, J., & Seppä, H. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0102751 · Cited by 25
Socio-environmental drought response in a mixed urban-agricultural setting: synthesizing biophysical and governance responses in the Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, USA
Zipper, S. C., Smith, K. H., Breyer, B., Qiu, J., Kung, A., & Herrmann, D. L. (2017) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-09549-220439 · Cited by 25
Performance evaluation of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis blended with observation-based datasets for estimating reference evapotranspiration across Iran
Raziei, T., & Parehkar, A. (2021) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03578-0 · Cited by 25
Assessment of basin-wise future agricultural drought status across India under changing climate
Suman, M., & Maity, R. (2021) · Journal of Water and Climate Change · doi:10.2166/wcc.2021.369 · Cited by 25
Application of meteorological drought for assessing watershed health using fuzzy-based reliability, resilience, and vulnerability
Fooladi, M., Golmohammadi, M., Safavi, H., & Singh, V. (2021) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102616 · Cited by 23
Evaluating the Drought-Monitoring Utility of GPM and TRMM Precipitation Products over Mainland China
Cheng, S., Wang, W., & Yu, Z. (2021) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs13204153 · Cited by 25
Was Warming Amplified Under Drought Conditions Across China in Observations and Future Projections?
Wang, L., Wang, W. J., Du, H., Shen, X., Wu, Z., Ma, S., Liu, Z., & Jiang, M. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2021ef002614 · Cited by 25
Water and Food in the Twenty-First Century
de Marsily, G., & Abarca-del-Río, R. (2015) · Surveys in Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s10712-015-9335-1 · Cited by 27
“The current theory is that drought situations will occur in the future (Sheffield and Wood 2011), as they did before, even during the last six decades (Sheffield et al. 2012); droughts are even expected to increase in frequency”
Background
Increasing Northern Hemisphere water deficit
McCabe, G. J., & Wolock, D. M. (2015) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1419-x · Cited by 25
Spatiotemporal and joint probability behavior of temperature extremes over the Himalayan region under changing climate
Goswami, U. P., Bhargav, K., Hazra, B., & Goyal, M. K. (2017) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2288-1 · Cited by 25
“As natural hazards, extreme events such as flood, drought, and heat waves, etc. can have significant negative impacts on human society and ecosystem (Easterling et al. 2000; Sheffield et al. 2012; Trenberth et al. 2014).”
Background
Temporal-Spatial Characteristics of Drought in Guizhou Province, China, Based on Multiple Drought Indices and Historical Disaster Records
Cheng, Q., Gao, L., Chen, Y., Liu, M., Deng, H., & Chen, X. (2018) · Advances in Meteorology · doi:10.1155/2018/4721269 · Cited by 25
Nanoparticles and root traits: mineral nutrition, stress tolerance and interaction with rhizosphere microbiota
Tripathi, S., Tiwari, K., Mahra, S., Victoria, J. I., Rana, S., Tripathi, D. K., & Sharma, S. (2024) · Planta · doi:10.1007/s00425-024-04409-y · Cited by 24
“(Sheffield et al. 2012; Trenberth et al. 2014).”
Climate change has increased global evaporative demand except in South Asia
Karimzadeh, S., Ahmadi, A., Baldocchi, D., & Fisher, J. B. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02959-x · Cited by 32
“A similar decline in the evaporative demand pattern in South Asia was reported previously 36 .”
Probabilistic Seasonal Prediction of Meteorological Drought Using the Bootstrap and Multivariate Information
Behrangi, A., Nguyen, H., & Granger, S. L. (2015) · Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology · doi:10.1175/jamc-d-14-0162.1 · Cited by 24
“Drought is thus expected to occur more often and be more intense in the future as a result of climate change, although the magnitude of the trends has been debated (Sheffield et al. 2012; Trenberth et al. 2013).”
Background
Potential Role of Beneficial Soil Microorganisms in Plant Tolerance to Abiotic Stress Factors
Balestrini, R., Chitarra, W., Fotopoulos, V., & Ruocco, M. (2017) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-63336-7_12 · Cited by 25
Forecasting the human and climate impacts on groundwater resources in the irrigated agricultural region of North China Plain
Chen, H., Wu, M., Duan, Z., Zha, Y., Wang, S., Yang, L., Zou, L., Zheng, M., Chen, P., Cao, W., et al. (2023) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.14853 · Cited by 24
“Up till now, quantification of human impacts on groundwater depletion under climate change remains rare, even though the water shortage induced societal and environment risks could happen due to the lack of water supply with project increases in drought frequency (Prudhomme et al., 2014; Seager et al., 2007; Sheffield…”
Background
Analyzing the uncertainty of potential evapotranspiration models in drought projections derived for a semi-arid watershed
Okkan, U., Fıstıkoğlu, O., Ersoy, Z. B., & Noori, A. T. (2024) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-023-04817-2 · Cited by 24
“Conversely, Sheffield et al. (2012) showed that the Palmer Drought Severity Index behaved differently with Thw and PM, bringing about discrepancies in global drought variations.”
Agricultural drought-driven mechanism of coupled climate and human activities in the karst basin of southern China
Pan, S., He, Z., Gu, X., Xu, M., Chen, L., Yang, S., & Tan, H. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-62027-w · Cited by 24
Changing water availability during the African maize-growing season, 1979–2010
Estes, L. D., Chaney, N. W., Herrera-Estrada, J. E., Sheffield, J., Caylor, K. K., & Wood, E. F. (2014) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/075005 · Cited by 24
“1950s than a variant of the index that incorporates all four Ep drivers [8].”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models
Liu, W., & Sun, F. (2017) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-16-0204.1 · Cited by 24
“The results are consistent with many studies that related atmospheric evaporative demand (e.g.,Wang et al. 2012) and drought (e.g., Dai 2011, 2013; Sheffield et al. 2012; Vicente-Serrano et al. 2014) to global warming.”
Result
Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China
Wu, C., Hu, B. X., Huang, G., Wang, P., & Xu, K. (2018) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-22-1971-2018 · Cited by 24
“78 79 2 Data and methodology 80 2.1 Data sets 81 Monthly data of potential evaporation (PET) covering the period 1960–2008 over China are provided by the 82 Hydroclimatology Group of Princeton University (Sheffield et al., 2006, 2012).”
MethodInfluential
Variations of monsoonal rain and vegetation during the past millennium in Tiangui Mountain, North China reflected by stalagmite δ18O and δ13C records from Zhenzhu Cave
Yin, J.-J., Li, H., Rao, Z., Shen, C., Mii, H., Pillutla, R. K., Hu, H., Li, Y.-X., & Feng, X. (2017) · Quaternary International · doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2017.06.039 · Cited by 24
Projected changes of thermal growing season over Northern Eurasia in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming world
Zhou, B., Zhai, P., Chen, Y., & Yu, R. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaa6dc · Cited by 28
Climate change and anthropogenic intervention impact on the hydrologic anomalies in a semi-arid area: Lower Zab River Basin, Iraq
Mohammed, R. K., & Scholz, M. (2018) · Environmental Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s12665-018-7537-9 · Cited by 24
21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection
Allen, R. J., & Anderson, R. G. (2018) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-018-0032-x · Cited by 24
Global Analysis of the Role of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Evapotranspiration Estimated from the Budyko Framework at Annual to Monthly Time Scales
Wu, C., Yeh, P. J. ‐., Wu, H., Hu, B. X., & Huang, G. (2019) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-19-0065.1 · Cited by 24
Improved Drought Monitoring Index Using GNSS-Derived Precipitable Water Vapor over the Loess Plateau Area
Zhao, Q., Ma, X., Yao, W., Liu, Y., Du, Z. P., Yang, P., & Yao, Y. (2019) · Sensors · doi:10.3390/s19245566 · Cited by 24
“found that the TH model overestimated the values of drought monitoring index in global trends over the past 60 years [18].”
Background
Relative Contribution of Precipitation and Air Temperature on Dry Season Drying in India, 1951–2018
Mishra, V. K. (2020) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2020jd032998 · Cited by 25

Authors: Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., & Roderick, M. L.
Affiliations: Princeton University (US)
Australian National University (AU)
Corresponding author: Sheffield, Justin
ORCID: Sheffield, Justin
Wood, Eric F.
Roderick, Michael L.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2012-11
Volume: 491
Issue: 7424
Pages: 435-438
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/nature11575
OpenAlex: W2015522309
Cited by: 1,978
References: 50
Citations by year: 2026: 97 · 2025: 126 · 2024: 131 · 2023: 162 · 2022: 188 · 2021: 196 · 2020: 174 · 2019: 159 · 2018: 160 · 2017: 139 · 2016: 144 · 2015: 121 · 2014: 110 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 3
FWCI: 79.51
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
www.springer.com/tdm (vor)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords: global drought, Palmer Drought Severity Index, drought trends, potential evaporation, global warming, water cycle, drought indices, climate change impacts, water balance modeling
MeSH terms: Models, Theoretical, Temperature, Time Factors, Droughts, Global Warming

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Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

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