The DOI matches its Crossref record; 49 of the 50 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Little change in global drought over the past 60 years
Abstract
Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Two recent studies published in Nature Climate Change 25 and Nature 26 came to opposing conclusions about whether there are noticeable changes in drought trends as a result of climate change.”
From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [26]
Citations
Cites
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M. C., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H. L., & Chen, Z. (2007) · Cited by 23,398
An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate
Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948) · Geographical Review · doi:10.2307/210739 · Cited by 9,334
Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass
Penman, H. L. (1948) · Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A Mathematical and Physical Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspa.1948.0037 · Cited by 7,346
Huffman, G. J., Bolvin, D. T., Nelkin, E. J., Wolff, D. B., Adler, R. F., Gu, G., Hong, Y. E., Bowman, K. P., & Stocker, E. F. (2007) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm560.1 · Cited by 6,773
THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Shine, K. P. (1990) · Weather · doi:10.1002/j.1477-8696.1990.tb05660.x · Cited by 5,458
Jl, M. (1965) · PubMed · Cited by 5,033
Jansen, E. H., Overpeck, J. T., Briffa, K., Duplessy, J., Joos, F., Masson-Delmotte, Olago, D., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Rahmstorf, S., et al. (2007) · UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) · Cited by 4,577
Mitchell, T. D., & Jones, P. D. (2005) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1181 · Cited by 3,820
Drought under global warming: a review
Dai, A. (2011) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.81 · Cited by 3,523
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 50 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Gupta, S. K., Stackhouse, P. W., Cox, S. J., Mikovitz, J. C. & Zhang, T. Surface Radiation Budget Project completes 22-year data set. GEWEX News 16, 12–13 (2006)
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 201–300 of 1,000
Global drought trends under 1.5 and 2 °C warming
Xu, L., Chen, N., & Zhang, X. (2018) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.5958 · Cited by 171
“Drought evolution in the recent past several decades has been discussed in existing studies (Aiguo, 2011; Dai, 2013; Sheffield et al., 2012; Trenberth et al., 2014), indicating higher drought risk may occur over the globe due to further warming.”
BackgroundZhu, Y., Liu, Y., Wen Wang, A., Singh, V. P., & Ren, L. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126907 · Cited by 165
Williams, P., Seager, R., Macalady, A. K., Berkelhammer, M., Crimmins, M. A., Swetnam, T. W., Trugman, A. T., Buenning, N. H., Noone, D., McDowell, N. G., et al. (2014) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf14023 · Cited by 169
“This undoubtedly causes regional simulations of wind speed to poorly represent the influence of wind on PET within a forest, which is a point worthy of consideration in calculations of global drought (e.g. Sheffield et al. 2012).”
Southern Hemisphere dominates recent decline in global water availability
Zhang, Y., Li, C., Chiew, F. H. S., Post, D. A., Zhang, X., Ma, N., Tian, J., Kong, D., Leung, L.-Y. R., Yu, Q., et al. (2023) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.adh0716 · Cited by 171
Riley, K. L., Abatzoglou, J. T., Grenfell, I. C., Klene, A. E., & Heinsch, F. A. (2013) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf12149 · Cited by 168
Response of terrestrial evapotranspiration to Earth's greening
Zeng, Z., Peng, L., & Piao, S. L. (2018) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2018.03.001 · Cited by 163
Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends
Mao, J., Fu, W., Shi, X., Ricciuto, D. M., Fisher, J. B., Dickinson, R. E., Wei, Y., Shem, W. O., Piao, S. L., Wang, K., et al. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094008 · Cited by 159
“…studies are also required to account for land-atmosphere interactions and anthropogenic impacts in the integrated earth system models (Seneviratne et al 2010, Bond-Lamberty et al 2014, Collins et al 2015) and to understand future trajectories of drought (Sheffield et al 2012, Zarch et al 2015).”
BackgroundGlobal trends and patterns of drought from space
Damberg, L., & AghaKouchak, A. (2013) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-013-1019-5 · Cited by 167
“On the other hand, our findings concur with some of the observation-based studies, such as (Sheffield et al. 2012).”
ResultDetection and attribution of large spatiotemporal extreme events in Earth observation data
Jakob Zscheischler, A., Mahecha, M. D., Stefan Harmeling, B., & Reichstein, M. (2013) · Ecological Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2013.03.004 · Cited by 167
“Many recent studies on extreme events focus on either air temperature extremes (Anderson and Kostinski, 2011; Barriopedro et al., 2011; Rahmstorf and Coumou, 2011, amongst others) and/or water scarcity (Mueller and Seneviratne, 2012; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
BackgroundChanges of extreme drought and flood events in Iran
Modarres, R., Sarhadi, A., & Burn, D. H. (2016) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.008 · Cited by 158
Anthropogenic warming has caused hot droughts more frequently in China
Chen, H., & Sun, J. (2016) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.044 · Cited by 159
Liu, Y., Liu, Y., & Wen Wang, A. (2018) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2018.10.026 · Cited by 158
Reference evapotranspiration variability and trends in Spain, 1961–2011
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Azorín-Molina, C., Sanchez‐Lorenzo, A., Revuelto, J., López‐Moreno, J. I., Hidalgo, J. C. G., Morán‐Tejeda, E., & Espejo, F. (2014) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.06.005 · Cited by 157
Amani, S., & Shafizadeh-Moghadam, H. (2023) · Agricultural Water Management · doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108324 · Cited by 172
Impacts of recent climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in United States watersheds
Ficklin, D. L., Robeson, S. M., & Knouft, J. H. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl069121 · Cited by 156
Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., Loon, A. F. V., Maraun, D., & Vrac, M. (2018) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-18-0017.1 · Cited by 160
Meteorological and hydrological drought monitoring using several drought indices
Salimi, H., Asadi, E., & Darbandi, S. (2021) · Applied Water Science · doi:10.1007/s13201-020-01345-6 · Cited by 156
“2003): (3)ET0 = 0.408Δ ( Rn − G ) + [ 890 T+273 ] U2(ea − ed) Δ + (1 + 0.34U2) (4)Di = Pi − PET0i i = 1, 2, .....,N Applied Water Science (2021) 11:11 1 3 Page 5 of 10 11 where wi,l is the value of Di or the water requirement in the first month of the year (mm).”
MethodInfluentialIncreasing compound warm spells and droughts in the Mediterranean Basin
Vogel, J., Paton, E. N., Aich, V., & Bronstert, A. (2021) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100312 · Cited by 169
“The interdependence between warm spells and droughts and the associated feedback mechanisms for warm spells and droughts are still under debate and the question if droughts primarily drive warm spells or vice versa is nontrivial (Sheffield et al., 2012).”
BackgroundAnthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe
Gudmundsson, L., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044005 · Cited by 160
Long-term spatiotemporal variation of drought patterns over the Greater Horn of Africa
Haile, G. G., Tang, Q., Leng, G., Jia, G., Wang, J., Cai, D., Sun, S., Baniya, B., & Zhang, Q. (2019) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135299 · Cited by 155
Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas, Morocco)
Marchane, A., Tramblay, Y., Hanich, L., Ruelland, D., & Jarlan, L. (2017) · Hydrological Sciences Journal · doi:10.1080/02626667.2017.1283042 · Cited by 154
“(2009), most climate change studies indicate an increase in PET associated with a warming climate, but very strong differences can be found between the PET models (Sheffield et al. 2012).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialRivero, J., Álvarez, D., Flors, V., Azcón‐Aguilar, C., & Pozo, M. J. (2018) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.15295 · Cited by 154
Agricultural drought mitigating indices derived from the changes in drought characteristics
Wu, B., Ma, Z., & Yan, N. (2020) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2020.111813 · Cited by 156
Turner, B. L., Menendez, H. M., Gates, R. N., Tedeschi, L. O., & Atzori, A. S. (2016) · Resources · doi:10.3390/resources5040040 · Cited by 169
Global variation of transpiration and soil evaporation and the role of their major climate drivers
Zhang, Y., Chiew, F. H. S., Peña-Arancibia, J. L., Sun, F., Li, H., & Leuning, R. (2017) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2017jd027025 · Cited by 158
Effect of water stress “memory” on plant behavior during subsequent drought stress
Tombesi, S., Frioni, T., Poni, S., & Palliotti, A. (2018) · Environmental and Experimental Botany · doi:10.1016/j.envexpbot.2018.03.009 · Cited by 152
Liu, Y., & Chen, J. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142159 · Cited by 152
The alleviating trend of drought in the Huang‐Huai‐Hai Plain of China based on the daily SPEI
Wang, Q., Shi, P., Lei, T., Geng, G., Liu, J., Mo, X., Li, X., Zhou, H., & Wu, J. (2015) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4244 · Cited by 151
“, 2009), and the trends in drought areas have been investigated based on the PDSI on a global scale (Sheffield et al., 2012).”
MethodWang, H., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Tao, F., Zhang, X., Wang, P., Zhang, C., Chen, Y., Zhu, D., & Kenawy, A. E. (2016) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.06.004 · Cited by 157
“Assessing spatiotemporal changes in drought based on gridded precipitation products has shown divergent results in many regions worldwide (Bindoff et al., 2012; Dai, 2013; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
BackgroundAyugi, B. O., Eresanya, E. O., Onyango, A. O., Ogou, F. K., Okoro, E. C., Okoye, C. O., Anoruo, C. M., Dike, V. N., Ashiru, O. R., Daramola, M. T., et al. (2022) · Pure and Applied Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s00024-022-02988-z · Cited by 179
“Similarly, due to continuous global warming, widespread droughts have been identified in various locations, with a noteworthy increase in recent decades (Dai, 2011a; Dai, 2013; IPCC, 2014; Sheffield et al., 2012; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
BackgroundZeng, Z., Wang, T., Zhou, F., Ciais, P., Mao, J., Shi, X., & Piao, S. L. (2014) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2013jd020941 · Cited by 149
“Atmospheric evaporative demand is expected to increase with increasing temperature [Monteith, 1981; Roderick et al., 2007; Sheffield et al., 2012].”
BackgroundShifts in tree functional composition amplify the response of forest biomass to climate
Zhang, T., Niinemets, Ü., Sheffield, J., & Lichstein, J. W. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature26152 · Cited by 147
Self-citationProjected increase in global runoff dominated by land surface changes
Zhou, S., Yu, B., Lintner, B. R., Findell, K. L., & Zhang, Y. (2023) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01659-8 · Cited by 162
Trends in heat wave related indices in Pakistan
Khan, N., Shahid, S., Ismail, T., Ahmed, K., & Nawaz, N. (2018) · Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment · doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1605-2 · Cited by 158
“Dry gets drier, wet gets wetter”: A case study over the arid regions of central Asia
Hu, Z., Chen, X., Chen, D., Li, J., Wang, S., Zhou, Q., Yin, G., & Guo, M. (2018) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.5863 · Cited by 146
“The weak drying trend of CASNW revealed by the PDSI is consistent with the drying trend for the global land areas over the last century (Dai, 2013) (Table 6) and the period of 1950–2008 (Sheffield et al., 2012) (Table 6).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialGupta, V., & Jain, M. K. (2018) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.012 · Cited by 152
Climate Change and Hydrological Extremes
Xiong, J., & Yang, Y. (2024) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-024-00198-4 · Cited by 165
“…to establish the Standardized Runoff Index, revealing no significant trend on a global scale during the period 1902–2014 [138], consistent with the PDSI-based assessment [136], despite large decadal variabilities within the period such as mid-century cooling and recent rapid warming.”
Heat and cold waves trends in the Carpathian Region from 1961 to 2010
Spinoni, J., Lakatos, M., Szentimrey, T., Bihari, Z., Szalai, S., Vogt, J., & Antofie, T. (2015) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4279 · Cited by 155
“E-mail: jonathan.spinoni@gmail.com discussed for droughts (Sheffield et al., 2012; Dai, 2013), floods (Schiermeier, 2011; Hirabayashi et al., 2013), heat and cold waves (Beniston and Stephenson, 2004; Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004), heavy rainfall (Allan and Soden, 2008), tropical cyclones (Emanuel,…”
BackgroundA global analysis of the impact of drought on net primary productivity
Chen, T., van der Werf, G. R., de Jeu, R., Wang, G., & Dolman, A. J. (2013) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-17-3885-2013 · Cited by 150
“5 PgC but Zhao and Running (2010) reported an anomaly of −1.”
BackgroundThe Changing Climate and Pregnancy Health
Ha, S. (2022) · Current Environmental Health Reports · doi:10.1007/s40572-022-00345-9 · Cited by 145
“The predicted trend of drought occurrence is less consistent [98], but recent evidence suggests that frequency, duration, and intensity have increased in parts of the Americas, Africa, and Asia, and this trend is expected to continue [99, 100].”
BackgroundUkkola, A., Kauwe, M. G. D., Pitman, A. J., Best, M., Abramowitz, G., Haverd, V., Decker, M., & Haughton, N. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/10/104012 · Cited by 153
“The frequency and magnitude of droughts are expected to increase regionally in the coming decades due to climatechange driven changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns (Dai 2011, 2013, Sheffield et al 2012, IPCC 2013, Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2013, Prudhomme et al 2014).”
BackgroundGroundwater level responses to precipitation variability in Mediterranean insular aquifers
Lorenzo‐Lacruz, J., García, C., & Morán‐Tejeda, E. (2017) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.011 · Cited by 143
Ecohydrological Processes Explain Urban Dry Island Effects in a Wet Region, Southern China
Hao, L., Huang, X., Qin, M., Liu, Y., Li, W., & Sun, G. (2018) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2018wr023002 · Cited by 146
Bento, V. A., Gouveia, C. M., DaCamara, C. C., Libonati, R., & Trigo, I. F. (2020) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103198 · Cited by 150
Hember, R. A., Kurz, W. A., & Coops, N. C. (2016) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13428 · Cited by 144
Improving the theoretical underpinnings of process‐based hydrologic models
Clark, M., Schaefli, B., Schymanski, S. J., Samaniego, L., Luce, C. H., Jackson, B., Freer, J. E., Arnold, J. R., Moore, R. D., İstanbulluoğlu, E., et al. (2016) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2015wr017910 · Cited by 141
“…other physical processes—for example, parameterizing potential evapotranspiration as an empirical function of air temperature, i.e., neglecting energy balance theory, can exaggerate the hydrologic sensitivity to climate change [Milly and Dunne, 2011; Sheffield et al., 2012; Roderick et al., 2014].”
BackgroundRajsekhar, D., & Gorelick, S. M. (2017) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.1700581 · Cited by 141
“Daily time series of precipitation, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity obtained from the globalmeteorological forcing data set (39, 40) was used to run SWAT.”
MethodElbeltagi, A., Pande, C. B., Kumar, M., Tolche, A. D., Singh, S. K., Kumar, A., & Vishwakarma, D. K. (2023) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-023-25221-3 · Cited by 146
“This drought index has been used extensively in observing of drought (Diaz 1983; Sheffield et al. 2012).”
MethodThe extreme European summer of 2015 in a long‐term perspective
Hoy, A., Hänsel, S., Skalák, P., Ustrnul, Z., & Bochníček, O. (2016) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4751 · Cited by 144
“…for global drought trends using a diverse set of indices, validation periods and study periods (e.g. Dai, 2011a, 2011b, 2013; Giorgi et al., 2011; Sheffield et al., 2012; van der Schrier et al., 2013; Spinoni et al., 2014), leading to a generally low confidence in worldwide observed drought…”
BackgroundMapping spatial distribution of forest age in China
Zhang, Y., Yao, Y., Wang, X., Liu, Y., & Piao, S. L. (2016) · Earth and Space Science · doi:10.1002/2016ea000177 · Cited by 145
“Due to the increasing water stress driven by warming, water rather than temperature becomes the limiting factor of growth for these two types of forests [Sheffield et al., 2012].”
BackgroundDroughts in India from 1981 to 2013 and Implications to Wheat Production
Zhang, X., Obringer, R., Wei, C., Chen, N., & Niyogi, D. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep44552 · Cited by 142
Prodhan, F. A., Zhang, J., Sharma, T. P. P., Nanzad, L., Zhang, D., Seka, A. M., Ahmed, N., Hasan, S. S., Hoque, M. Z., & Mohana, H. P. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151029 · Cited by 143
Evaluation of Meteorological Drought and Flood Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa
Ayugi, B. O., Tan, G., Niu, R., Dong, Z., Ojara, M., Mumo, L., Babaousmail, H., & Ongoma, V. (2020) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos11030307 · Cited by 138
Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems
IPCC (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157940.005 · Cited by 178
Homdee, T., Pongput, K., & Kanae, S. (2016) · Agriculture and Natural Resources · doi:10.1016/j.anres.2016.02.002 · Cited by 136
“2B shows a decreasing trend of annual precipitation which is consistent with Sheffield et al. (2012) who noted decreases in regional precipitation over Asia.”
BackgroundChanging characteristics of meteorological droughts in Nigeria during 1901–2010
Shiru, M. S., Shahid, S., Chung, ., & Alias, N. B. (2019) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.010 · Cited by 141
Modeling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects
Wada, Y. (2015) · Surveys in Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s10712-015-9347-x · Cited by 140
“…Alcamo and Henrichs 2002; Alcamo et al. 2003b, 2007; Dirmeyer et al. 2006; Lehner et al. 2006; Feyen and Dankers 2009; Dai 2011, 2013; Haddeland et al. 2011; Sheffield et al. 2012; Jasechko et al. 2013; Elliott et al. 2014; Haddeland et al. 2014; Prudhomme et al. 2014; Schewe et al. 2014).”
BackgroundSoil Moisture Droughts under the Retrospective and Projected Climate in India*
Mishra, V. K., Shah, R. D., & Thrasher, B. L. (2014) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-13-0177.1 · Cited by 135
Unidirectional trends in annual and seasonal climate and extremes in Egypt
Nashwan, M. S., Shahid, S., & Rahim, N. A. (2018) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2498-1 · Cited by 134
“…and Saiers 2017; Onyutha and Willems 2017; Rishmawi et al. 2016), Asia (Aadhar and Mishra 2017; Aich et al. 2017; Wu et al. 2017; Zhu et al. 2017), Europe (Duan et al. 2016; Orth et al. 2016), South America (Awange et al. 2016), and on global scale (Sheffield andWood 2007; Sheffield et al. 2012).”
BackgroundLomborg, B. (2020) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119981 · Cited by 134
Drought characteristics in Mediterranean under future climate change
Essa, Y. H., Hirschi, M., Thiery, W., Kenawy, A. E., & Yang, C. (2023) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00458-4 · Cited by 154
Uncertainty and hotspots in 21st century projections of agricultural drought from CMIP5 models
Lu, J., Carbone, G. J., & Grego, J. M. (2019) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-019-41196-z · Cited by 142
Historical drought trends revisited
Seneviratne, S. I. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/491338a · Cited by 138
A global reconstruction of climate‐driven subdecadal water storage variability
Humphrey, V., Gudmundsson, L., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl072564 · Cited by 132
“We exclude temperature trends in order to avoid spurious trends that arise when the effect of temperature on land evapotranspiration is not constrained by water availability [Sheffield et al., 2012].”
BackgroundByakatonda, J., Parida, B. P., Moalafhi, D. B., & Kenabatho, P. K. (2018) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.07.002 · Cited by 135
Commonly Used Drought Indices as Indicators of Soil Moisture in China
Wang, H., Rogers, J. C., & Munroe, D. K. (2015) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-14-0076.1 · Cited by 133
“For example, Sims et al. (2002) show the SPI to be more representative of short-term precipitation and soil moisture variation in North Carolina.”
BackgroundIntroducing a probabilistic Budyko framework
Greve, P., Gudmundsson, L., Orlowsky, B., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2015gl063449 · Cited by 131
The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case
Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Werner, J., Zorita, E., Wagner, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Herget, J., Grünewald, U., Luterbacher, J., Alcoforado, M. J., et al. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2 · Cited by 136
“propagates through the hydrological cycle and, together with evapotranspiration anomalies (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012; Sheffield et al. 2012), gives rise to different types of droughts.”
BackgroundIvits, É., Horion, S., Fensholt, R., & Cherlet, M. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12393 · Cited by 129
“However, using improved evapotranspiration models, recent findings of Sheffield et al. (2012) plead for little evidence of increase in the total area affected by drought over the past 60 years.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialMcDowell, N. G., Ryan, M. G., Zeppel, M. J. B., & Tissue, D. T. (2013) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.12502 · Cited by 128
Potential evaporation at eddy-covariance sites across the globe
Maes, W. H., Gentine, P., Verhoest, N. E. C., & Miralles, D. G. (2019) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-23-925-2019 · Cited by 128
“It has been incorporated in hydrological models dedicated to estimate runoff (e.g. Schellekens et al., 2017) or actual evaporation (Wang and Dickinson, 2012)), as well as in drought severity indices (Sheffield et al., 2012; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2013).”
Changes in groundwater drought associated with anthropogenic warming
Bloomfield, J. P., Marchant, B. P., & McKenzie, A. (2019) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-23-1393-2019 · Cited by 131
“Although the role of evapotranspiration (ET) in regional-to global-scale drying is still a matter of active debate (Dai, 2011; Sheffield et al., 2012; Greve et al., 2014; Milly and Dunne, 2016), there is an expectation of a general increase in ET, and hence of general drying associated with…”
InfluentialHydroclimatic trends during 1950–2018 over global land
Dai, A. (2021) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05684-1 · Cited by 138
Joshi, N., Gupta, D., Suryavanshi, S., Adamowski, J., & Madramootoo, C. A. (2016) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.07.030 · Cited by 129
Warming and Elevated CO2 Have Opposing Influences on Transpiration. Which is more Important?
Kirschbaum, M. U. F., & McMillan, A. M. S. (2018) · Current Forestry Reports · doi:10.1007/s40725-018-0073-8 · Cited by 134
Jiang, S. S., Wei, L., Ren, L., Xu, C., Zhong, F., Wang, M., Zhang, L., Yuan, F., & Liu, Y. (2020) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105141 · Cited by 127
Kauwe, M. G. D., Zhou, S., Medlyn, B. E., Pitman, A. J., Wang, Y., Duursma, R. A., & Prentice, I. C. (2015) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-12-7503-2015 · Cited by 132
Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale
Luca, P. D., Messori, G., Wilby, R. L., Mazzoleni, M., & Baldassarre, G. D. (2020) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-11-251-2020 · Cited by 137
Projecting meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts for the Yangtze River basin
Sun, F., Mejía, A., Zeng, P., & Che, Y. (2019) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134076 · Cited by 125
Increased risk of flash droughts with raised concurrent hot and dry extremes under global warming
Zeng, Z., Wu, W., Peñuelas, J., Li, Y., Jiao, W., Li, Z., Ren, X., Wang, K., & Ge, Q. (2023) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00468-2 · Cited by 136
The use of remote sensing to characterise hydromorphological properties of European rivers
Bizzi, S., Demarchi, L., Grabowski, R., Weissteiner, C. J., & van de Bund, W. (2015) · Aquatic Sciences · doi:10.1007/s00027-015-0430-7 · Cited by 126
“In hydrology, where suitable accuracy for continental scale applications have existed for several years, data management issues are well known (Lehner and Grill 2013) and various types of continental-scale assessments already exist from drought severity analysis (Sheffield et al. 2012) and”
Guo, H., Bao, A., Liu, T., Ndayisaba, F., Jiang, L., Zheng, G., Chen, T., & Maeyer, P. D. (2019) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2019.111220 · Cited by 123
Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China
Yang, Q., Li, M., Zheng, Z., & Ma, Z. (2017) · Science China Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11430-016-5133-5 · Cited by 126
“remains controversial because of the use of different drought indices (Sheffield et al., 2012; Dai, 2012).”
BackgroundMethodAhmadalipour, A., Moradkhani, H., & Demirel, M. C. (2017) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.08.047 · Cited by 126
“Schyns et al. (2015) reviewed 61 and classified numerous drought indices, most of which are estimated using a combination of 62 precipitation, temperature, potential evaporation (PE) or potential evapotranspiration (PET), 63 soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialModified Palmer Drought Severity Index: Model improvement and application
Yu, H., Zhang, Q., Xu, C., Du, J., Sun, P., & Hu, P. (2019) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2019.104951 · Cited by 127
Impacts of climate change on stream flow and hydro power generation in the Alpine region
Wagner, T., Themeßl, M. J., Schüppel, A., Gobiet, A., Stigler, H., & Birk, S. (2016) · Environmental Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s12665-016-6318-6 · Cited by 128
A Hydrologic Drying Bias in Water‐Resource Impact Analyses of Anthropogenic Climate Change
Milly, P. C. D., & Dunne, K. A. (2017) · JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association · doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12538 · Cited by 126
A fusion-based methodology for meteorological drought estimation using remote sensing data
Alizadeh, M. R., & Nikoo, M. R. (2018) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2018.04.001 · Cited by 122
Global assessment of primate vulnerability to extreme climatic events
Zhang, L., Ameca, E. I., Cowlishaw, G., Pettorelli, N., Foden, W., & Mace, G. M. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0508-7 · Cited by 129
Agricultural land conversion: Reviewing drought impacts and coping strategies
Azadi, H., Keramati, P., Taheri, F., Rafiaani, P., Teklemariam, D., Gebrehiwot, K., Hosseininia, G., Passel, S. V., Lebailly, P., & Witlox, F. (2018) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.05.003 · Cited by 126
“Moreover, since global warming is likely to raise the occurrence and severity of droughts in the future [71] and given the important role played by agricultural lands in food security, local livelihood, economic development, poverty reduction, etc.”
BackgroundA Review of Climate Change Attribution Studies
Zhai, P., Zhou, B., & Chen, Y. (2018) · 气象学报：英文版 · doi:10.1007/s13351-018-8041-6 · Cited by 127
Reversed asymmetric warming of sub-diurnal temperature over land during recent decades
Zhong, Z., He, B., Chen, H. W., Chen, D., Zhou, T., Dong, W., Xiao, C., Xie, S., Song, X., Guo, L., et al. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-43007-6 · Cited by 123
COSMOS-Europe: a European network of cosmic-ray neutron soil moisture sensors
Bogena, H., Schrön, M., Jakobi, J. C., Ney, P., Zacharias, S., Andreasen, M., Baatz, R., Boorman, D. B., Duygu, M. B., Eguibar, M. Á., et al. (2022) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022 · Cited by 138
Jiang, R., Xie, J., He, H., Luo, J., & Zhu, J. (2014) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1468-x · Cited by 121
“The long-term drought events in northern China starting 2000 and the severe drought in Yunnan province, southwestern of China in 2010, have caused devastating effects on regional agriculture, environment and socioeconomic (Qiu 2010; Sheffield et al. 2012).”
BackgroundVicente-Serrano, S. M., Azorín-Molina, C., Sanchez‐Lorenzo, A., Revuelto, J., Morán‐Tejeda, E., López‐Moreno, J. I., & Espejo, F. (2014) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2014wr015427 · Cited by 127
“These studies provide very different results regarding ETo variability and trends [e.g., Dai, 2013; Sheffield et al., 2012].”
ResultIs drought‐induced forest dieback globally increasing?
Steinkamp, J., & Hickler, T. (2015) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.12335 · Cited by 127
Prediction of heat waves in Pakistan using quantile regression forests
Khan, N., Shahid, S., Juneng, L., Ahmed, K., Ismail, T., & Nawaz, N. (2019) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.01.024 · Cited by 119
Liu, X., Zhu, X., Zhang, Q., Yang, T., Pan, Y., & Sun, P. (2019) · CATENA · doi:10.1016/j.catena.2019.104394 · Cited by 119
Nasrollahi, N., AghaKouchak, A., Cheng, L., Damberg, L., Phillips, T. J., Miao, C., Hsu, K., & Sorooshian, S. (2015) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2014wr016318 · Cited by 123
A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States
Ficklin, D. L., Maxwell, J. T., Letsinger, S. L., & Gholizadeh, H. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044009 · Cited by 124
“Sheffield et al (2012) found that globally scPDSI exaggerated the trend while dampening the variability of the signal in global drought.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluential
Metadata
- Authors
- Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., & Roderick, M. L.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Sheffield, Justin
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2012-11
- Volume
- 491
- Issue
- 7424
- Pages
- 435-438
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2015522309
- Cited by
- 1,978
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 97 · 2025: 126 · 2024: 131 · 2023: 162 · 2022: 188 · 2021: 196 · 2020: 174 · 2019: 159 · 2018: 160 · 2017: 139 · 2016: 144 · 2015: 121 · 2014: 110 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 79.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- global drought, Palmer Drought Severity Index, drought trends, potential evaporation, global warming, water cycle, drought indices, climate change impacts, water balance modeling
- MeSH terms
- Models, Theoretical, Temperature, Time Factors, Droughts, Global Warming
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
