Cited by 1,978Hydrology and Drought AnalysisPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsClimate variability and models

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Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

Sheffield, Justin, Wood, Eric F., Roderick, Michael L.·2012·Nature

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Abstract

Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years.

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Background
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“…(Miralles et al., 2014), monitoring extreme event droughts (Anderson et al., 2013; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2018), diagnosing climate variability and change (Deb et al., 2019; Mao et al., 2015; Sheffield et al., 2012), improving water resource management (Anderson et al., 2011, 2012) and so on.”
Background
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“The TW equation may not be the best approach to estimate PET in drought monitoring because it is overly dependent on T (Sheffield et al., 2012), and previous studies have shown that T is not the only factor that influences PET (or even the most important factor) (Roderick & Farquhar, 2002).”
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“2014), with some studies suggesting little change (Sheffield et al. 2012) but others suggesting increases (Dai 2013).”
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Background
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Li, B., Liang, Z., Yu, Z., & Acharya, K. (2013) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0999-x · Cited by 39
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BackgroundResultInfluential
Propagation of Meteorological Drought to Agricultural and Hydrological Droughts in the Tropical Lancang–Mekong River Basin
Feng, G., Chen, Y., Mansaray, L. R., Xu, H.-F., Shi, A., & Chen, Y. (2023) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs15245678 · Cited by 40
Assessing temporal scales and patterns in time series: Comparing methods based on redundancy analysis
Baho, D. L., Futter, M. N., Johnson, R. K., & Angeler, D. G. (2015) · Ecological Complexity · doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2015.04.001 · Cited by 38
“Regional environmental change is often slow, with ecosystem changes in biotic and abiotic conditions unfolding over decades, centuries or millennia (Renberg et al., 1993; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
Background
The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations
Huang, S., Leng, G., Huang, Q., Xie, Y., Liu, S., Meng, E., & Li, P. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06302-z · Cited by 38
Sensitivity of discharge projections to potential evapotranspiration estimation in Northern Tunisia
Dakhlaoui, H., Seibert, J., & Hakala, K. (2020) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01615-8 · Cited by 38
“Several studies show that the impacts of climate change on discharge depend on the PET formula used (Seiller and Anctil 2016; Bae et al. 2011; SpernaWeiland et al. 2012).”
Background
Historical Changes in Surface Soil Moisture Over the Contiguous United States: An Assessment of CMIP6
Yuan, S., Quiring, S. M., & Leasor, Z. T. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl089991 · Cited by 38
“There are also notable uncertainties in soil moisture trends during historical periods based on both model simulations and observations (Dai, 2013; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
Intensity-area-duration-based drought analysis under 1.5°C–4.0 °C warming using CMIP6 over a climate hotspot in South Asia
Huang, J., Mondal, S. K., Zhai, J., Fischer, T., Wang, Y., Su, B., Wang, G., Gao, M., Jiang, S., Tao, H., et al. (2022) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131106 · Cited by 38
Impact of climate change on future availability of water for irrigation and hydropower generation in the Omo-Gibe Basin of Ethiopia
Orkodjo, T. P., Kranjac-Berisavijevic, G., & Abagale, F. K. (2022) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101254 · Cited by 45
Crescimento e produtividade de cultivares e linhagens de amendoim submetidas a déficit hídrico
Arruda, I. M., Moda‐Cirino, V., Buratto, J. S., & Ferreira, J. M. (2015) · Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical · doi:10.1590/1983-40632015v4529652 · Cited by 37
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Precipitation in the Sparsely Gauged Zambezi River Basin Using Remote Sensing and Google Earth Engine
Zeng, H., Wu, B., Zhang, N., Tian, F., Phiri, E., Musakwa, W., Zhang, M., Liang, Z., & Mashonjowa, E. (2019) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs11242977 · Cited by 37
“This precipitation paradigm has been well confirmed over oceans [48,49], but remains controversial over land [50].”
Background
The intercomparison of six 0.1°×0.1° spatial resolution evapotranspiration products across mainland China
Shi, X., She, D., Xia, J., Liu, R., & Wang, T. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130949 · Cited by 37
An overview of US state drought plans: crisis or risk management?
Fu, X., Svoboda, M. D., Tang, Z., Dai, Z., & Wu, J. (2013) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0766-z · Cited by 37
“Sheffield et al. (2012) argue that this expected increased intensity of drought is overestimated because of those advocates’ simplified method of projection.”
Background
Sensitivity analysis of standardization procedures in drought indices to varied input data selections
Liu, Y., Ren, L., Hong, Y. E., Zhu, Y., Yang, X., Yuan, F., & Jiang, S. S. (2016) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.073 · Cited by 37
Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts in southeastern USA
Mitra, S., & Srivastava, P. (2016) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2728-8 · Cited by 37
“Recently, contrasting conclusions were drawn about global drought climatology (Sheffield et al. 2012; Dai 2013).”
Evaluation of CMIP5 Global Climate Models over the Volta Basin: Precipitation
Agyekum, J., Annor, T., Lamptey, B., Quansah, E., & Agyeman, R. Y. K. (2018) · Advances in Meteorology · doi:10.1155/2018/4853681 · Cited by 36
“A decrease in the amount of precipitation may lead to drought [3, 4], while an increase can cause flooding [5].”
Background
Spatio-temporal variations in extreme drought in China during 1961–2015
Zhang, J., & Shen, Y. (2019) · Journal of Geographical Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11442-019-1584-3 · Cited by 37
Intensification of historical drought over China based on a multi‐model drought index
Han, X., Wu, J., Zhou, H., Liu, L., Yang, J., Shen, Q., & Wu, J. (2020) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.6527 · Cited by 37
Spruce beetle outbreak was not driven by drought stress: Evidence from a tree‐ring iso‐demographic approach indicates temperatures were more important
Pettit, J. M., Voelker, S. L., DeRose, R. J., & Burton, J. I. (2020) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15274 · Cited by 37
The contributions of climate change and production area expansion to drought risk for maize in China over the last four decades
Song, Y., Tian, J., Linderholm, H. W., Wang, C., Ou, Z., & Chen, D. (2020) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.6885 · Cited by 37
“Several studies have examined changes to drought and the degree to which these are driven by global warming (Dai, 1998; Ma et al., 2004; Sheffield and Wood, 2008; Qian, 2011; Wang et al., 2011; Sheffield et al., 2012; Dai, 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014; Dai and Zhao, 2016).”
Background
Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes
Hobeichi, S., Abramowitz, G., & Evans, J. P. (2021) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021 · Cited by 37
Indicators of climate change impacts on the water cycle and water management
Peters‐Lidard, C. D., Rose, K. C., Kiang, J. E., Strobel, M. L., Anderson, M. L., Byrd, A. R., Kolian, M. J., Brekke, L. D., & Arndt, D. S. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03057-5 · Cited by 37
“Although the PDSI was a landmark in the development of drought indices, it is not without limitations (Heim Jr. 2002; Sheffield et al. 2012).”
Background
Changes in climatic patterns and tourism and their concomitant effect on drinking water transfers into the region of South Aegean, Greece
Myronidis, D., & Theofanous, N. (2021) · Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment · doi:10.1007/s00477-021-02015-y · Cited by 37
Reducing Climate Change Induced Flood at the Cost of Hydropower in the Lancang‐Mekong River Basin
Yun, X., Tang, Q., Sun, S., & Wang, J. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2021gl094243 · Cited by 37
Delayed responses of an Arctic ecosystem to an extreme summer: impacts on net ecosystem exchange and vegetation functioning
Zona, D., Lipson, D. A., Richards, J. H., Phoenix, G. K., Liljedahl, A., Ueyama, M., Sturtevant, C., & Oechel, W. C. (2014) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-11-5877-2014 · Cited by 39
“Large parts of Alaska and Canada have been subjected to a substantial drying over the last 50 years (as shown by the increase in the Palmer Drought Severity Index using the Penman–Monteith equation, PDSI-PM, Sheffield et al., 2012).”
BackgroundMethod
Inter-annual and spatial variability of Hamon potential evapotranspiration model coefficients
McCabe, G. J., Hay, L. E., Bock, A., Markstrom, S. L., & Atkinson, R. D. (2014) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.006 · Cited by 36
“This is an interesting result given that several previous studies have argued that temperature-based PET models such as the Hamon model over-estimate PET (Milly and Dunne, 2011; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
BackgroundResult
Modeling hydrologic and ecologic responses using a new eco‐hydrological model for identification of droughts
Sawada, Y., Koike, T., & Jaranilla‐Sanchez, P. A. (2014) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2013wr014847 · Cited by 36
Methodological Approaches to Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change*
Lofgren, B. M., Gronewold, A. D., Acciaioli, A., Cherry, J., Steiner, A. L., & Watkins, D. (2013) · Earth Interactions · doi:10.1175/2013ei000532.1 · Cited by 36
Dissecting indices of aridity for assessing the impacts of global climate change
Girvetz, E. H., & Zganjar, C. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1218-9 · Cited by 36
“There is evidence showing that the modified Thornthwaite equation could overestimate the increase in PET due to climate change, whereas the Hargreaves method provides a fairly unbiased assessment of climate change when compared to the Penman-Monteith method (Burke and Brown, 2008; Kingston et al., 2009; Sheffield et a…”
A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate
Sarhadi, A., Ausín, M. C., & Wiper, M. P. (2016) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep35755 · Cited by 36
Atmospheric dynamics drive most interannual U.S. droughts over the last millennium
Erb, M. P., Emile‐Geay, J., Hakim, G. J., Steiger, N., & Steig, E. J. (2020) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aay7268 · Cited by 36
“For the LMR, PDSI is calculated in the model prior using the PenmanMonteith method for estimating the potential evapotranspiration component (31) and then reconstructed in the past through data assimilation alongside other climate variables (Materials and Methods).”
Evaluation of evapotranspiration deficit index for agricultural drought monitoring in North China
Wu, R., Liu, Y., & Xing, X. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126057 · Cited by 36
Spatial and temporal drought projections of northwestern Turkey
Yeşilköy, S., & Şaylan, L. (2022) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-022-04029-0 · Cited by 36
The Combined Impacts of ENSO and IOD on Global Seasonal Droughts
Yin, H., Wu, Z., Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S., He, H., & Li, Y. (2022) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos13101673 · Cited by 36
Spatiotemporal drought variability of the eastern Tibetan Plateau during the last millennium
Deng, Y., Gou, X., Gao, L., Yang, M., & Zhang, F. (2016) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3433-8 · Cited by 36
“Besides, it has used the Thornthwaite equation to compute potential evapotranspiration, which may have overestimated the drought severity in the context of global warming (Sheffield et al. 2012).”
Method

Authors: Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., & Roderick, M. L.
Affiliations: Princeton University (US)
Australian National University (AU)
Corresponding author: Sheffield, Justin
ORCID: Sheffield, Justin
Wood, Eric F.
Roderick, Michael L.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2012-11
Volume: 491
Issue: 7424
Pages: 435-438
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/nature11575
OpenAlex: W2015522309
Cited by: 1,978
References: 50
Citations by year: 2026: 97 · 2025: 126 · 2024: 131 · 2023: 162 · 2022: 188 · 2021: 196 · 2020: 174 · 2019: 159 · 2018: 160 · 2017: 139 · 2016: 144 · 2015: 121 · 2014: 110 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 3
FWCI: 79.51
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
www.springer.com/tdm (vor)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords: global drought, Palmer Drought Severity Index, drought trends, potential evaporation, global warming, water cycle, drought indices, climate change impacts, water balance modeling
MeSH terms: Models, Theoretical, Temperature, Time Factors, Droughts, Global Warming

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Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

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