Cited by 1,978Hydrology and Drought AnalysisPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsClimate variability and models

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Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

Sheffield, Justin, Wood, Eric F., Roderick, Michael L.·2012·Nature

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Abstract

Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years.

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Temperature and Snow-Mediated Moisture Controls of Summer Photosynthetic Activity in Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems between 1982 and 2011
Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., Myneni, R. B., van der Schrier, G., Dorigo, W. A., Tucker, C. J., Osborn, T. J., & Melvin, T. M. (2014) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs6021390 · Cited by 96
“A similar impact of surface warming on drought severity since the 1980s has been documented on a global scale by recent studies based on the scPDSI using a Penman-Monteith formulation for potential evapotranspiration, but forced with different meteorological datasets [11,43,65,66].”
Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA‐NEX downscaled climate ensemble
Ahmadalipour, A., Moradkhani, H., & Svoboda, M. D. (2016) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4859 · Cited by 99
“However, to have a better understanding of the effects of climate change on drought, it is advised to account for temperature effects as well (Strzepek et al., 2010; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
Background
Insights from a New High-Resolution Drought Atlas for the Caribbean Spanning 1950–2016
Herrera, D. A., & Ault, T. R. (2017) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0838.1 · Cited by 97
Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections
Melsen, L. A., Addor, N., Mizukami, N., Newman, A. J., Torfs, P. J. J. F., Clark, M., Uijlenhoet, R., & Teuling, A. J. (2018) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018 · Cited by 112
Revisiting the evolution of the 2009–2011 meteorological drought over Southwest China
Sun, S., Li, Q., Li, J., Wang, G., Zhou, S., Chai, R., Hua, W., Deng, P., Wang, J., & Lou, W. (2018) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.071 · Cited by 95
Global Surface Temperature: A New Insight
Valipour, M., Bateni, S. M., & Jun, C. (2021) · Climate · doi:10.3390/cli9050081 · Cited by 95
“This happens because WS can affect ST through modifying evapotranspiration [17,18].”
Background
Agricultural drought hazard analysis during 1980-2008: a global perspective: GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT HAZARD ANALYSIS DURING 1980-2008
Geng, G., Wu, J., Wang, Q., Lei, T., He, B., Li, X., Mo, X., Luo, H., Zhou, H., & Liu, D. (2016) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4356 · Cited by 92
“…drought indices have been widely used at regional to global drought studies from the perspective of climate variation (Zou et al., 2005; Raziei et al., 2009; Dai, 2011a, 2012; Sheffield et al., 2012; Spinoni et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2014).”
BackgroundMethod
Drought Trends in the Iberian Peninsula over the Last 112 Years
Páscoa, P., Gouveia, C. M., Russo, A., & Trigo, R. M. (2017) · Advances in Meteorology · doi:10.1155/2017/4653126 · Cited by 94
Estimation of spatio-temporal groundwater storage variations in the Lower Transboundary Indus Basin using GRACE satellite
Ali, S., Wang, Q., Liu, D., Fu, Q., Rahaman, M. M., Faiz, M. A., & Cheema, M. J. M. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127315 · Cited by 94
Disappearing Lakes in Semiarid Northern China: Drivers and Environmental Impact
Liu, H., Yin, Y., Piao, S. L., Zhao, F., Engels, M., & Ciais, P. (2013) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es305298q · Cited by 94
When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period
Awange, J. L., Mpelasoka, F. S., & Gonçalves, R. M. (2016) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.031 · Cited by 99
“The insignificant trend in frequency of historical droughts are consistent with other studies, for example, Worrall et al. (2006) and Sheffield et al., 2012who showed that the previously reported increase in drought frequency (Briffa et al., 2009; Wang et al., 2010) is an overestimate emanating…”
Result
Assessing spatiotemporal variation of drought in China and its impact on agriculture during 1982–2011 by using PDSI indices and agriculture drought survey data
Yan, H., Wang, S., Wang, J., Lu, H., Guo, A., Zhu, Z., Myneni, R. B., & Shugart, H. H. (2016) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2015jd024285 · Cited by 95
A new drought index that considers the joint effects of climate and land surface change
Liu, M., Xu, X., Xu, C., Sun, A. Y., Wang, K., Scanlon, B. R., & Zhang, L. (2017) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2016wr020178 · Cited by 93
The sensitivity of US wildfire occurrence to pre-season soil moisture conditions across ecosystems
Jensen, D. J., Reager, J. T., Zajic, B., Rousseau, N. J., Rodell, M., & Hinkley, E. (2017) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9853 · Cited by 93
“fast-growing) fuels tend to be associated with precipitation and soil moisture conditions at the land surface over the months prior to fire season, when some regions experience an annual wet period or rainy season (Chuvieco et al 2004, Krueger et al 2015). These results suggest that soil moisture may be a good predict…”
BackgroundInfluential
Recent increases in drought frequency cause observed multi-year drought legacies in the tree rings of semi-arid forests
Szejner, P., Belmecheri, S., Ehleringer, J. R., & Monson, R. K. (2019) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s00442-019-04550-6 · Cited by 95
A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK
Guillod, B. P., Jones, R., Dadson, S., Coxon, G., Bussi, G., Freer, J. E., Kay, A. L., Massey, N., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. C. H., et al. (2018) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-22-611-2018 · Cited by 101
“This is the case of drought (e.g. Sheffield et al., 2012), for which the attribution of observed (projected) trends can only be done with low (medium) confidence (IPCC, 2013) due, among other factors, to observational uncertainty and confounding effects from decadal-scale variability combined with…”
Background
The impact of climate mitigation on projections of future drought
Taylor, I., Burke, E., McColl, L., Falloon, P., Harris, G. R., & McNeall, D. (2013) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013 · Cited by 91
“Calculations based on the underlying physical principles, considering changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest little change in drought over the past 60 yr (Sheffield et al., 2012).”
Background
A probabilistic framework for assessing drought recovery
Pan, M., Yuan, X., & Wood, E. F. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50728 · Cited by 91
“[2] Drought remains a frequent and costly natural disaster [Sheffield et al., 2012].”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Assessment of the Influences of Different Potential Evapotranspiration Inputs on the Performance of Monthly Hydrological Models under Different Climatic Conditions
Bai, P., Liu, X., Yang, T., Li, F., Liang, K., Hu, S., & Liu, C. (2016) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-15-0202.1 · Cited by 90
Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.
Wan, W., Zhao, J., Li, H., Mishra, A. K., Leung, L.-Y. R., Hejazi, M. I., Wang, W., Lu, H. M., Deng, Z. D., Demissie, Y. K., et al. (2017) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2017jd026899 · Cited by 93
“Over the historical period (1980–2004), the model simulated an overall increase in streamflow similar to the observed trend reported in previous studies (Dai, 2011; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
Result
Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Hydrological Drought: a Case Study in the Wei River Basin, China
Zou, L., Xia, J., & She, D. (2017) · Water Resources Management · doi:10.1007/s11269-017-1877-1 · Cited by 90
“Human activities, such as irrigation, the modification of land use/land cover, urbanization and industrialization, can alter hydrological processes and exert impacts on the environment with significant implications for water resources, which can eventually affect the hydrological drought (Dai 2011; Sheffield et al. 20…”
Background
The impact of drought and heat stress at flowering on maize kernel filling: Insights from the field and laboratory
Liu, X., Yu, Y., Huang, S., Xu, C., Wang, X., Gao, J., Meng, Q., & Wang, P. (2021) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108733 · Cited by 92
Shift in potential evapotranspiration and its implications for dryness/wetness over Southwest China
Sun, S., Chen, H., Wang, G., Li, J., Mu, M., Yan, G., Xu, B., Huang, J., Wang, J., Zhang, F., et al. (2016) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2016jd025276 · Cited by 91
“…droughts (i.e., frequency, extent, and intensity) have been revealed to increase at both regional and global scales through different drought indices [Dai, 2013; IPCC, 2014], in which PET was involved; but there were still some uncertainties [Sheffield et al., 2012; Trenberth et al., 2014].”
Background
Characterization of drought and its assessment over Sindh, Pakistan during 1951–2010
Adnan, S., Ullah, K., & Gao, S. (2015) · 气象学报：英文版 · doi:10.1007/s13351-015-4113-z · Cited by 89
“Similarly, Sheffield et al. (2012) observed a smaller increase in the frequency of global drought.”
Background
Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in climate and weather extremes in Nile river basin
Nashwan, M. S., & Shahid, S. (2018) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2664-5 · Cited by 89
Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan
Khan, N., Shahid, S., Ahmed, K., Wang, X., Ali, R., Ismail, T., & Nawaz, N. (2019) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104688 · Cited by 89
2017 Montana Climate Assessment
Whitlock, C. L., Cross, W. F., Maxwell, B. D., Silverman, N. L., & Wade, A. A. (2017) · Montana State University ScholarWorks (Montana State University) · doi:10.15788/m2ww8w · Cited by 103
Spatiotemporal variations of drought in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, southwest China, during 1960–2013 and their association with large-scale circulations and historical records
Cheng, Q., Gao, L., Zhong, F., Zuo, X., & Ma, M. (2020) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.106041 · Cited by 86
A drought index: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration runoff index
Wang, L., Yu, H., Yang, M., Yang, R., Gao, R., & Wang, Y. (2019) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.023 · Cited by 87
The responses of natural vegetation dynamics to drought during the growing season across China
Zhang, X., & Zhang, B. (2019) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.084 · Cited by 87
Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment in Southwest China
Zeng, Z., Wu, W., Li, Z., Zhou, Y., Guo, Y., & Huang, H. (2019) · Water · doi:10.3390/w11051064 · Cited by 87
“The widespread drying caused by global climate change that is known to have occurred over most parts of the world from 1950 to 2008 [3,4] has challenged global food security because agriculture is the economic sector primarily”
Background
A review of widely used drought indices and the challenges of drought assessment under climate change
Han, J., & Singh, V. P. (2023) · Environmental Monitoring and Assessment · doi:10.1007/s10661-023-12062-3 · Cited by 89
“3; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Hydrologic benchmarking of meteorological drought indices at interannual to climate change timescales: a case study over the Amazon and Mississippi river basins
Joetzjer, É., Douville, H., Delire, C., Ciais, P., Decharme, B., & Tytéca, S. (2013) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-17-4885-2013 · Cited by 87
“The Thornthwaite’s approximation for the computation of PET was also criticized and recently replaced by a more physical but still empirical Penman–Monteith approach (Van der Schrier et al., 2011; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Projected Increases in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Productivity Loss Caused by Drought Under Climate Change
Cao, D., Zhang, J., Han, J., Zhang, T., Yang, S., Wang, J., Prodhan, F. A., & Yao, F. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef002681 · Cited by 87
Drought and wetness variability in the Tarim River Basin and connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation
Tao, H., Borth, H., Fraedrich, K., Su, B., & Zhu, X. (2013) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3867 · Cited by 86
“E–mail: htao@niglas.ac.cn from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change (Sheffield et al., 2012).”
Background
Separating the effects of climate change and human activities on drought propagation via a natural and human-impacted catchment comparison method
Wang, M., Jiang, S. S., Ren, L., Xu, C., Menzel, L., Yuan, F., Xu, Q., Liu, Y., & Yang, X. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126913 · Cited by 85
The role of temperature in drought projections over North America
Jeong, D. I., Sushama, L., & Khaliq, M. N. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1248-3 · Cited by 84
“Sheffield et al. (2012) showed that a simplified temperature-based method of PET overestimates drought risks detected on the basis of PDSI over the past 60 years (1950 to 2009).”
Method
Temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of drought and the relation to ENSO : a case study in Northwest China
Liu, Z., Menzel, L., Dong, C., & Fang, R. (2015) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4526 · Cited by 85
“Although drought occurs in all climatic regimes, its spatial and temporal structure and impacts can be remarkably different from one region to another (Tatli and Türkes, 2011; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
Background
On the coupling between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration: contributions to decadal drought anomalies in the Southwest China
Sun, S., Chen, H., Ju, W., Wang, G., Sun, G., Huang, J., Ma, H., Gao, C., Hua, W., & Yan, G. (2016) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3302-5 · Cited by 86
“However, Trenberth et al. (2012) compared the apparently conflicting results of Dai (2013) and Sheffield et al. (2012) on drought changes with climate change, and suggested that droughts were likely to be quicker and more intense despite the lower occurrence probability induced by global warming.”
BackgroundResultInfluential

Authors: Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., & Roderick, M. L.
Affiliations: Princeton University (US)
Australian National University (AU)
Corresponding author: Sheffield, Justin
ORCID: Sheffield, Justin
Wood, Eric F.
Roderick, Michael L.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2012-11
Volume: 491
Issue: 7424
Pages: 435-438
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/nature11575
OpenAlex: W2015522309
Cited by: 1,978
References: 50
Citations by year: 2026: 97 · 2025: 126 · 2024: 131 · 2023: 162 · 2022: 188 · 2021: 196 · 2020: 174 · 2019: 159 · 2018: 160 · 2017: 139 · 2016: 144 · 2015: 121 · 2014: 110 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 3
FWCI: 79.51
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
www.springer.com/tdm (vor)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords: global drought, Palmer Drought Severity Index, drought trends, potential evaporation, global warming, water cycle, drought indices, climate change impacts, water balance modeling
MeSH terms: Models, Theoretical, Temperature, Time Factors, Droughts, Global Warming

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Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

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