Cited by 1,978Hydrology and Drought AnalysisPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsClimate variability and models

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Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

Sheffield, Justin, Wood, Eric F., Roderick, Michael L.·2012·Nature

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Abstract

Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years.

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“Rising global mean annual temperatures resulting from changing climate have further increased the frequency of droughts and dry conditions (Dai et al. 2004; Sheffield et al. 2012).”
Background
The 2011–2012 drought in the United States: new lessons from a record event
Grigg, N. S. (2014) · International Journal of Water Resources Development · doi:10.1080/07900627.2013.847710 · Cited by 58
A perturbation approach for assessing trends in precipitation extremes across Iran
Tabari, H., AghaKouchak, A., & Willems, P. (2014) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.019 · Cited by 58
Projected changes in precipitation and temperature over the Canadian Prairie Provinces using the Generalized Linear Model statistical downscaling approach
Asong, Z. E., Khaliq, M. N., & Wheater, H. S. (2016) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.044 · Cited by 58
Response of ecosystem productivity to dry/wet conditions indicated by different drought indices
Wang, H., He, B., Zhang, Y., Huang, L., Chen, Z., & Liu, J. (2017) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.212 · Cited by 58
A new indicator framework for quantifying the intensity of the terrestrial water cycle
Huntington, T. G., Weiskel, P. K., Wolock, D. M., & McCabe, G. J. (2018) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.048 · Cited by 58
Future perspectives of run-of-the-river hydropower and the impact of glaciers’ shrinkage: The case of Italian Alps
Patro, E. R., Michele, C. D., & Avanzi, F. (2018) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.063 · Cited by 60
Drought Characteristics Assessment in Europe over the Past 50 Years
Oikonomou, P. D., Karavitis, C. A., Tsesmelis, D. E., Kolokytha, E., & Maia, R. (2020) · Water Resources Management · doi:10.1007/s11269-020-02688-0 · Cited by 62
Use of a multiscalar GRACE-based standardized terrestrial water storage index for assessing global hydrological droughts
Cui, A., Li, J., Zhou, Q., Zhu, R., Liu, H., Wu, G., & Li, Q. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126871 · Cited by 59
The Complex and Spatially Diverse Patterns of Hydrological Droughts Across Europe
Peña‐Angulo, D., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Domínguez‐Castro, F., Lorenzo‐Lacruz, J., Murphy, C., Hannaford, J., Allan, R. P., Tramblay, Y., Reig, F., & Kenawy, A. E. (2022) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2022wr031976 · Cited by 57
“, precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff), which imposes further complexity on drought assessment (Mishra & Singh, 2010; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
Background
Towards observation-based gridded runoff estimates for Europe
Gudmundsson, L., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2015) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-19-2859-2015 · Cited by 57
Salinity pulses interact with seasonal dry‐down to increase ecosystem carbon loss in marshes of the Florida Everglades
Wilson, B. J., Servais, S., Mazzei, V., Kominoski, J. S., Hu, M., Davis, S. E., Gaiser, E. E., Sklar, F. H., Bauman, L., Kelly, S. P., et al. (2018) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.1798 · Cited by 57
“While some predictions about how climate change will affect drought frequency are contradictory (Sheffield et al. 2012, Dai 2013), it is predicted that droughts will set in more quickly and become more intense (Trenberth et al. 2014).”
Background
Investigating the Causes of Increased Twentieth-Century Fall Precipitation over the Southeastern United States
Bishop, D. A., Williams, P., Seager, R., Fiore, A. M., Cook, B. I., Mankin, J., Singh, D., Smerdon, J. E., & Rao, M. P. (2018) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0244.1 · Cited by 61
Impacts of climate change on hydrological droughts at basin scale: A case study of the Weihe River Basin, China
Zhao, P., Lü, H., Yang, H., Wang, W., & Fu, G. (2019) · Quaternary International · doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2019.02.022 · Cited by 57
Tracking Moisture Sources of Precipitation over Central Asia: A Study Based on the Water-Source-Tagging Method
Jiang, J., Zhou, T., Wang, H., Qian, Y., Noone, D., & Man, W. (2020) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0169.1 · Cited by 56
Multiple stable isotopes and geochemical approaches to elucidate groundwater salinity and contamination in the critical coastal zone: A case from the Bou-areg and Gareb aquifers (North-Eastern Morocco)
Elmeknassi, M., Bouchaou, L., Mandour, A. E., Elgettafi, M., Himi, M., & Casas, A. (2022) · Environmental Pollution · doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2022.118942 · Cited by 56
Correcting Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration using a global grid of local coefficients to support temperature-based estimations of reference evapotranspiration and aridity indices
(2022) · doi:10.5194/essd-14-163-2022 · Cited by 56
Rising ecosystem water demand exacerbates the lengthening of tropical dry seasons
Xu, H., Lian, X., Slette, I. J., Yang, H., Zhang, Y., Chen, A., & Piao, S. L. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31826-y · Cited by 64
Drought prediction: Insights from the fusion of LSTM and multi-source factors
Wang, T., Tu, X., Singh, V. P., Chen, X., Lin, K., & Zhou, Z. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166361 · Cited by 58
Consistent Trends in a Modified Climate Extremes Index in the United States, Europe, and Australia
Gallant, A., Karoly, D. J., & Gleason, K. L. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00783.1 · Cited by 55
The Influence of Climate Model Biases on Projections of Aridity and Drought
Ficklin, D. L., Abatzoglou, J. T., Robeson, S. M., & Dufficy, A. L. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0439.1 · Cited by 56
Vegetation regulation on streamflow intra‐annual variability through adaption to climate variations
Ye, S., Li, H., Li, S., Leung, L.-Y. R., Demissie, Y. K., Ran, Q., & Blöschl, G. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2015gl066396 · Cited by 56
“Although the temperature-based estimation of EP could be biased in changing climate or when the surface energy flux components vary drastically [Sheffield et al., 2012], we believe this method to be suitable here since our focus is on the within year variability of the mean monthly water balance…”
Method
Dynamic changes in terrestrial net primary production and their effects on evapotranspiration
Li, Z., Chen, Y., Wang, Y., & Fang, G. (2016) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-20-2169-2016 · Cited by 56
“Weather systems can lead to droughts by suppressing precipitation (Beaumont et al., 2011) and by warming and drying soil via soil– temperature feedback (Seneviratne et al., 2010; Sheffield et al., 2012; Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2013; Williams et al., 2014).”
Background
Effects of climate and terrestrial storage on temporal variability of actual evapotranspiration
Wu, C., Hu, B. X., Huang, G., & Zhang, H. (2017) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.04.012 · Cited by 56
Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis
Mortuza, M. R., Moges, E., Demissie, Y. K., & Li, H. (2018) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2407-7 · Cited by 56
“Despite differences in literature regarding the historical trends of droughts (Sheffield et al. 2012; Dai 2012), there is a general consensus for the future droughts to become more frequent, longer lasting, and severe due to expected increase in atmospheric temperature and evaporation (Gregory et…”
Background
Temporal Characteristics of Actual Evapotranspiration Over China Under Global Warming
Feng, T., Su, T., Ji, F., Zhi, R., & Han, Z. (2018) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2017jd028227 · Cited by 56
“Many regions will get more rain, but it appears that few will get enough to keep pace with the growing evaporative demand (Dai, 2013; Feng & Fu, 2013; He et al., 2016; Sheffield et al., 2012).”
Background
Global drought monitoring with big geospatial datasets using Google Earth Engine
Khan, R., & Gilani, H. (2021) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-020-12023-0 · Cited by 56
Crops, Nitrogen, Water: Are Legumes Friend, Foe, or Misunderstood Ally?
Adams, M. A., Buchmann, N., Sprent, J., Buckley, T. N., & Turnbull, T. L. (2018) · Trends in Plant Science · doi:10.1016/j.tplants.2018.02.009 · Cited by 54
“While there is little evidence of a global increase in drought over the past 60 years [106], there is good evidence of changing amounts and seasonal distribution of rainfall in many of the world’s most important grain cropping areas (e.”
Background
Drought monitoring in Ceyhan Basin, Turkey
Yuce, M. I., & Eşit, M. (2021) · Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research · doi:10.1080/23249676.2021.1932616 · Cited by 55
“In 2009, although different parts of the globe were affected, Eastern Africa was influenced more than anywhere else (Sheffield et al. 2012), approximately 20 million people have suffered due to food scarcity.”
BackgroundInfluential
An Insight into Plant Growth-Promoting Rhizobacteria-Mediated Mitigation of Stresses in Plant
Borah, P., Gogoi, N., Asad, S. A., Rabha, A. J., & Farooq, M. (2022) · Journal of Plant Growth Regulation · doi:10.1007/s00344-022-10787-y · Cited by 55
“Frequency and severity of drought events are expected to increase in coming time due to uneven and scarce distribution of regional precipitation and increase in evapotranspiration fuelled by climate change (Sheffield and Wood, 2008; Sheffield et al., 2012; Dai, 2010).”
Background
An enhanced Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought-monitoring method integrating land surface characteristics
Peng, L., Sheffield, J., Wei, Z., Ek, M., & Wood, E. F. (2024) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-15-1277-2024 · Cited by 55
Self-citation
Analysis of dry/wet conditions in the Gan River Basin, China, and their association with large-scale atmospheric circulation
Zhang, Y., You, Q., Lin, H., & Chen, C. (2015) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.09.005 · Cited by 55
Evaporation variability under climate warming in five reanalyses and its association with pan evaporation over China
Su, T., Feng, T., & Feng, G. (2015) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2014jd023040 · Cited by 55
“Specifically, enhanced evaporation highlights the possible threat posed by increasing drought frequency to managing water resources and achieving food security [Sheffield et al., 2012].”
Background
Effects of surface wind speed decline on modeled hydrological conditions in China
Liu, X., Zhang, X.-J., Tang, Q., & Zhang, X.-Z. (2014) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-18-2803-2014 · Cited by 55
“The VIC model has been widely used for hydrological simulations in China (e.g., Xie et al., 2007; Wang et al., 2012) and throughout the world (Tang and Lettenmaier, 2010; Gao et al., 2010; Sheffield et al., 2012a).”
BackgroundMethod
Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models
Wanders, N., & Lanen, H. A. J. V. (2015) · Natural hazards and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-15-487-2015 · Cited by 66
“Sheffield et al. (2012) argue that the increase in global soil moisture drought since the 1980s is overestimated because the PDSI was computed with a too simple evapotranspiration model, which has consequences of how to interpret the impact global warming on global drought changes.”
BackgroundMethod
Forward modeling of tree-ring width improves simulation of forest growth responses to drought
Mina, M., Benito, D. M., Bugmann, H. K. M., & Cailleret, M. (2016) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.02.005 · Cited by 55
Similarity, difference and correlation of meteorological and hydrological drought indices in a humid climate region – the Poyang Lake catchment in China
Ye, X., Li, X., Xu, C., & Zhang, Q. (2016) · Hydrology research · doi:10.2166/nh.2016.214 · Cited by 55

Authors: Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., & Roderick, M. L.
Affiliations: Princeton University (US)
Australian National University (AU)
Corresponding author: Sheffield, Justin
ORCID: Sheffield, Justin
Wood, Eric F.
Roderick, Michael L.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2012-11
Volume: 491
Issue: 7424
Pages: 435-438
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/nature11575
OpenAlex: W2015522309
Cited by: 1,978
References: 50
Citations by year: 2026: 97 · 2025: 126 · 2024: 131 · 2023: 162 · 2022: 188 · 2021: 196 · 2020: 174 · 2019: 159 · 2018: 160 · 2017: 139 · 2016: 144 · 2015: 121 · 2014: 110 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 3
FWCI: 79.51
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
www.springer.com/tdm (vor)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords: global drought, Palmer Drought Severity Index, drought trends, potential evaporation, global warming, water cycle, drought indices, climate change impacts, water balance modeling
MeSH terms: Models, Theoretical, Temperature, Time Factors, Droughts, Global Warming

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Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

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