Cited by 1,978Hydrology and Drought AnalysisPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsClimate variability and models

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Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

Sheffield, Justin, Wood, Eric F., Roderick, Michael L.·2012·Nature

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Abstract

Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years.

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Background
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Method
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Background
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Background
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Twidwell, D., Wonkka, C. L., Taylor, C. A., Zou, C. B., Twidwell, J. J., & Rogers, W. E. (2013) · Applied Vegetation Science · doi:10.1111/avsc.12044 · Cited by 48
“This PDSI method can overestimate changes in drought occurring over time because it uses a simplified model of evapotranspiration (Sheffield et al. 2012).”
Method
Spatiotemporal variability of four precipitation-based drought indices in Xinjiang, China
Li, Y., Yao, N., Şahin, S., & Appels, W. M. (2016) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1827-5 · Cited by 48
“Among them, there are an array of standardized indices that allow for drought characterization at different timescales, such as standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and standardized runoff index (SRI) (McKee et al. 1993; Shukla and Wood 2008; Beguería et a…”
BackgroundMethod
Regional drought shifts (1710–2010) in East Central Asia and linkages with atmospheric circulation recorded in tree-ring δ18O
Xu, G., Liu, X., Trouet, V. M., Treydte, K. S., Wu, G., Chen, T., Sun, W., An, W., Wang, W., Zeng, X., et al. (2018) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4215-2 · Cited by 48
“An enhanced understanding of drought variability is therefore crucial for sustainable development in arid regions (Sheffield et al. 2012).”
Background
The Utility of Land-Surface Model Simulations to Provide Drought Information in a Water Management Context Using Global and Local Forcing Datasets
Quintana‐Seguí, P., Barella-Ortiz, A., Sanfiz, S., & Miguez‐Macho, G. (2019) · Water Resources Management · doi:10.1007/s11269-018-2160-9 · Cited by 48
Benefits of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi Application to Crop Production under Water Scarcity
Posta, K., & Duc, N. H. (2019) · IntechOpen eBooks · doi:10.5772/intechopen.86595 · Cited by 48
“Nonetheless, ongoing climate change supposed to amplify the frequency and severity of drought in different regions of the globe [1] can wipe out the so far achievements.”
Future changes in Aridity Index at two and four degrees of global warming above preindustrial levels
Wang, X., Jiang, D., & Lang, X. (2020) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.6620 · Cited by 50
“Given that the above method tends to depict more severe drought (Dai, 2011; Sheffield et al., 2012), and that, in reality, PET not only responds to air temperature but also to the aerodynamic and radiative controls”
MethodInfluential
Investigation of variable threshold level approaches for hydrological drought identificationPreprint
Beyene, B. S., Loon, A. F. V., Lanen, H. A. J. V., & Torfs, P. J. J. F. (2014) · doi:10.5194/hessd-11-12765-2014 · Cited by 48
The relationship between drought activity and vegetation cover in Northwest China from 1982 to 2013
Jiang, Y., Wang, R., Qing, P., Wu, X., Ning, H., & Li, C. (2018) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-018-3282-3 · Cited by 47
“…researchers have claimed that there is little difference between SPEI and PDSI whether using Penman–Monteith algorithms or Thornthwaite algorithms (Sheffield et al. 2012), but the Penman–Monteith method is more accurate because more meteorological data are involved, and more factors are…”
Method
Quantifying Flash Droughts Over China From 1980 to 2017
Fu, K., & Wang, K. (2022) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2022jd037152 · Cited by 47
“The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI) are the indices most commonly used to quantify traditional droughts (Dai, 2013; Feng et al., 2011, 2008; Palmer, 1965; Sheffield et al., 2012; S. Yuan & Quiring, 2014).”
Association and driving factors of meteorological drought and agricultural drought in Ningxia, Northwest China
Yang, P., Zhai, X., Huang, H., Zhang, Y., Zhu, Y., Shi, X., Zhou, L., & Fu, C. (2023) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106753 · Cited by 47
Characterizing present and future drought changes over eastern China
Chen, H., & Sun, J. (2017) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4987 · Cited by 47
Increasing drought has been observed by SPEI_pm in Southwest China during 1962–2012
Wang, Z., Li, J., Lai, C., Huang, Z., Zhong, R., Zeng, Z., & Chen, X. (2017) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2152-3 · Cited by 47
“To address these problems, Beguería et al. (2014) recommended use of a more robust Penman–Monteith (PM) equation to compute the reference ET (ET0), shown to be a more accurate and comprehensive approach (Sheffield et al. 2012).”
BackgroundMethod
Progress in understanding drought tolerance: from alleles to cropping systems
Varshney, R. K., Tuberosa, R., & Tardieu, F. (2018) · Journal of Experimental Botany · doi:10.1093/jxb/ery187 · Cited by 47
“Although it is uncertain whether episodes of drought will be more severe with climate change (Sheffield et al., 2012), their prevalence and year-to-year variability are major features in future modelling scenarios (Sun et al.”
Background
Daily SPEI Reveals Long-term Change in Drought Characteristics in Southwest China
Jia, Y., Zhang, B., & Ma, B. (2018) · Chinese Geographical Science · doi:10.1007/s11769-018-0973-3 · Cited by 47
Impacts of potential evapotranspiration on drought phenomena in different regions and climate zones
Um, M., Kim, Y., Park, D., Jung, K., Wang, Z., Kim, M. M., & Shin, H. (2019) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135590 · Cited by 47
A national-scale drought assessment in Uganda based on evapotranspiration deficits from the Bouchet hypothesis
Kyatengerwa, C., Kim, D., & Choi, M. (2019) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124348 · Cited by 48
Quantifying future drought change and associated uncertainty in southeastern Australia with multiple potential evapotranspiration models
Shi, L., Feng, P., Wang, B., Liu, D. L., & Yu, Q. (2020) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125394 · Cited by 47
“Moreover, this equation leads to an overestimation of ETp with increasing air temperature and might not be suitable for climate change studies (Sheffield et al., 2012).”
BackgroundMethod
Spatiotemporal Comparison of Drought in Shaanxi–Gansu–Ningxia from 2003 to 2020 Using Various Drought Indices in Google Earth Engine
Zhao, X., Xia, H., Liu, B., & Jiao, W. (2022) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs14071570 · Cited by 47
Drought over Southeast Asia and Its Association with Large-Scale Drivers
Phan‐Van, T., Nguyen, P. N. B., Ngo‐Duc, T., Vu‐Minh, T., Le, P. V. V., Trinh‐Tuan, L., Nguyen‐Thi, T., Pham‐Thanh, H., & Tran-Quang, D. (2022) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0770.1 · Cited by 46
Characterisation of compound dry and hot events in Inner Mongolia and their relationship with large-scale circulation patterns
Kang, Y., Guo, E., Wang, Y., Bao, Y., Bao, Y., Mandula, N., Runa, A., Gu, X., & Jin, L. (2022) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128296 · Cited by 48
Irrigation strategy optimization in irrigation districts with seasonal agricultural drought in southwest China: A copula-based stochastic multiobjective approach
Zhang, F., Cui, N., Guo, S., Yue, Q., Jiang, S., Zhu, B., & Yu, X. (2023) · Agricultural Water Management · doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108293 · Cited by 46
Methodological differences in projected potential evapotranspiration
McAfee, S. A. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0864-7 · Cited by 47
Evaluation of Temperature-Based Methods for the Estimation of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico
Quej, V. H., Almorox, J., Arnaldo, J. A., & Moratiel, R. (2018) · Journal of Hydrologic Engineering · doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0001747 · Cited by 46
CAM6 simulation of mean and extreme precipitation over Asia: sensitivity to upgraded physical parameterizations and higher horizontal resolution
Lin, L., Gettelman, A., Xu, Y., Wu, C., Wang, Z., Rosenbloom, N. A., Bates, S. C., & Dong, W. (2019) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-12-3773-2019 · Cited by 46
“Note,30 5 however, that rainfall in the reanalysis products such as JRA55 and MERRA2 is dependent on the reanalysis model physics, and it is well-known that there is large uncertainty among various observational datasets [Sheffield et al., 2012; Trenberth et al., 2014].”
Background
Projected Drought Conditions over Southern Slope of the Central Himalaya Using CMIP6 Models
Sharma, S., Hamal, K., Khadka, N., Ali, M., Subedi, M., Hussain, G., Ehsan, M. A., Saeed, S., & Dawadi, B. (2021) · Earth Systems and Environment · doi:10.1007/s41748-021-00254-1 · Cited by 46
Projected Meteorological Drought over Asian Drylands under Different CMIP6 Scenarios
Li, H., Li, Z., Chen, Y., Liu, Y., Hu, Y., Sun, F., & Kayumba, P. M. (2021) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs13214409 · Cited by 45
“This formulation incorporates the effects of thermal and dynamic factors such as temperature, solar and infrared radiation, humidity, and wind speed variations on evapotranspiration [4,37].”
BackgroundMethod
Assessment and attribution of China’s droughts using an integrated drought index derived from GRACE and GRACE-FO data
Deng, S., Liu, S., & Mo, X. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127170 · Cited by 45
Persistent humid climate favored the Qin and Western Han Dynasties in China around 2,200 y ago
Qin, C., Yang, B. J., Bräuning, A., Ljungqvist, F. C., Osborn, T. J., Валерьевич, Ш. В., He, M., Kang, S., Schneider, L., Esper, J., et al. (2024) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2415294121 · Cited by 47
Severity, duration and frequency of drought in SE England from 1697 to 2011
Todd, B., Macdonald, N., Chiverrell, R. C., Caminade, C., & Hooke, J. M. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0970-6 · Cited by 45
Changes in the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts over Ethiopia from 1960 to 2013
Kenawy, A. E., McCabe, M. F., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., López‐Moreno, J. I., & Robaa, S. M. (2016) · Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica · doi:10.18172/cig.2931 · Cited by 45
“Although Sheffield et al. (2012) have suggested little change in the global drought over the past 60 years, other research has also highlighted the potential implications of future climate changes on drought frequency and severity (Sheffield and Wood, 2008; Dai, 2011), with changes likely to…”
Background
Spatial and temporal patterns of drought in the Continental U.S. during the past century
Ge, Y., Apurv, T., & Cai, X. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl069660 · Cited by 50
“…(which has been found to bemore physically realistic and based on more diverse input data than the Thornthwaite equation) [Dai, 2013; Sheffield et al., 2012]; (b) the data sets use self-calibration method for PDSI calculation [Wells et al., 2004], in which PDSI is calibrated using…”
Method
A modeling framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply system under non-stationarity
Zhao, G., Gao, H., Kao, S., Voisin, N., & Naz, B. S. (2018) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.05.037 · Cited by 45
Economy-wide impact of drought induced productivity losses
Kilimani, N., Heerden, J. H. V., Bohlmann, H. R., & Roos, L. (2018) · Disaster Prevention and Management An International Journal · doi:10.1108/dpm-05-2018-0155 · Cited by 45
Impact of climate model resolution on soil moisture projections in central-western Europe
van der Linden, E. C., Haarsma, R., & van der Schrier, G. (2019) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-23-191-2019 · Cited by 45
Improving meteorological drought monitoring capability over tropical and subtropical water-limited ecosystems: evaluation and ensemble of the Microwave Integrated Drought Index
Zhang, A., Jia, G., & Wang, H. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab005e · Cited by 45
“Ensemble usage of multi-source data has been widely adopted to reduce uncertainty in climate studies (Sheffield et al 2012, Reddington et al 2017).”
River damming and drought affect water cycle dynamics in an ephemeral river based on stable isotopes: The Dagu River of North China
Jiang, D., Li, Z., Luo, Y., & Xia, Y. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143682 · Cited by 45
Interactions between snow cover and evaporation lead to higher sensitivity of streamflow to temperature
Neto, A. A. M., Niu, G., Roy, T., Tyler, S. W., & Troch, P. A. (2020) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00056-9 · Cited by 45
Assessment of Merged Satellite Precipitation Datasets in Monitoring Meteorological Drought over Pakistan
Rahman, K. U., Shang, S., & Zohaib, M. (2021) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs13091662 · Cited by 45
“Therefore, the insufficiency of RGs for monitoring droughts has been addressed in a number of studies [20,29,30], which is emphasizing on application and development of continuous precipitation datasets for drought assessment [19].”
Background
Prediction of Reservoir Storage Anomalies in India
Tiwari, A. D., & Mishra, V. K. (2019) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2019jd030525 · Cited by 44
“Since PET estimations can have uncertainty (Sheffield et al., 2012), we compared PET estimates for a few locations and found that the Hargreaves method provides similar estimates that are obtained from the Penman‐Monteith method.”
Method
Temporal Scaling of Streamflow Elasticity to Precipitation: A Global Analysis
Zhang, Y., Viglione, A., & Blöschl, G. (2022) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2021wr030601 · Cited by 50
Projection of Extreme Temperature Events over the Mediterranean and Sahara Using Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Models
Babaousmail, H., Ayugi, B. O., Rajasekar, A., Zhu, H., Oduro, C., Mumo, R., & Ongoma, V. (2022) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos13050741 · Cited by 44

Authors: Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., & Roderick, M. L.
Affiliations: Princeton University (US)
Australian National University (AU)
Corresponding author: Sheffield, Justin
ORCID: Sheffield, Justin
Wood, Eric F.
Roderick, Michael L.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2012-11
Volume: 491
Issue: 7424
Pages: 435-438
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/nature11575
OpenAlex: W2015522309
Cited by: 1,978
References: 50
Citations by year: 2026: 97 · 2025: 126 · 2024: 131 · 2023: 162 · 2022: 188 · 2021: 196 · 2020: 174 · 2019: 159 · 2018: 160 · 2017: 139 · 2016: 144 · 2015: 121 · 2014: 110 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 3
FWCI: 79.51
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
www.springer.com/tdm (vor)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords: global drought, Palmer Drought Severity Index, drought trends, potential evaporation, global warming, water cycle, drought indices, climate change impacts, water balance modeling
MeSH terms: Models, Theoretical, Temperature, Time Factors, Droughts, Global Warming

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Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

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