The DOI matches its Crossref record; 12 of the 12 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 5 of the 16 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Evidence for a limit to human lifespan
Open accessAbstract
Driven by technological progress, human life expectancy has increased greatly since the nineteenth century. Demographic evidence has revealed an ongoing reduction in old-age mortality and a rise of the maximum age at death, which may gradually extend human longevity. Together with observations that lifespan in various animal species is flexible and can be increased by genetic or pharmaceutical intervention, these results have led to suggestions that longevity may not be subject to strict, species-specific genetic constraints. Here, by analysing global demographic data, we show that improvements in survival with age tend to decline after age 100, and that the age at death of the world’s oldest person has not increased since the 1990s. Our results strongly suggest that the maximum lifespan of humans is fixed and subject to natural constraints.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Global demographic data show that improvements in survival decline after age 100 and that the maximum reported age at death has not increased since the 1990s. The authors conclude that human maximum lifespan is fixed and subject to natural constraints.
Key findings
- The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) plateaued at 114.9 years (95% CI: 113.1–116.7), and the probability of an MRAD exceeding 125 in any given year is less than 1 in 10,000.
- Before 1995, MRAD increased by 0.15 years per year (r = 0.68, P = 0.0007); after 1995 it decreased slightly by 0.28 years per year (r = −0.35, P = 0.27). The independent GRG database showed a similar pattern: increase by 0.12 years per year during 1972–1994 (r = 0.71, P = 0.0002), followed by a slight decrease by 0.14 years per year during 1995–2015 (r = −0.36, P = 0.70).
- The age with the greatest improvement in survival appeared to plateau around 1980; a similar pattern was seen in 88% of the 41 countries in the Human Mortality Database.
- All series of high reported age at death showed the same pattern as MRAD, and the annual average age at death for supercentenarians has not increased since 1968.
Methods
- Analyzed global demographic data from the Human Mortality Database (41 countries and territories, including France), the International Database on Longevity (IDL; n = 534 supercentenarians, 1968–2006) for France, Japan, UK and US, and the Gerontological Research Group (GRG) database (worldwide, 1972–2015).
- Plotted yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) and high reported age at death (HRAD) series, partitioned data into 1968–1994 and 1995–2006, and modelled each group using linear regression.
- Modelled MRAD as a Poisson distribution to approximate the absolute limit of human lifespan, and examined survival to old age and the rate of improvement in survival by age.
Limitations
- Stated: the ages at death of the supercentenarians are noisy and made up of small samples; the findings “suggest, but do not prove,” that human lifespan may have a natural limit.
- Stated: the fairly small number of reported MRAD cases could explain the results simply as fluctuations.
- Evident from the text: the analyses are demographic and observational, and do not directly test biological mechanisms for the proposed limit.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
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Verification
Claims the paper makes
5 of 16 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Indeed, the most convincing argument that the maximum lifespan of humans is not fixed is the ongoing increase in life expectancy in most countries over the course of the last century1,2.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [1] Oeppen, J. & Vaupel, J. W. Demography. Broken limits to life expectancy. Science 296, 1029–1031 (2002) source
- Partly supportedcites [2] Vaupel, J. W. Biodemography of human ageing. Nature 464, 536–542 (2010) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
In “The postponement of mortality” (page not provided), Vaupel says that mortality at advanced ages is being postponed and that the notion of a species-specific maximum lifespan was refuted. “Forecasts and consequences of longer lives” reports a sustained rise in life expectancy over 170 years, but for countries with the highest life expectancies—not most countries. The paper also does not identify that trend as the most convincing argument against a fixed maximum lifespan. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesEvery source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“The idea that ageing is a purposeful, programmed series of events that evolved under the direct force of natural selection to cause death has now been all but discredited12.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [12] Vijg, J. & Kennedy, B. K. The Essence of Aging. Gerontology 62, 381–385 (2016) source
The Abstract says the non-adaptive basis of aging is now all but generally accepted and that the case for programmed aging is weak. It also describes the rejected idea as a genetically programmed process selected during evolution to cause aging and death. No page numbers are provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.94)
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Although there is no scientific reason why such efforts could not be successful, the possibility is essentially constrained by the myriad of genetic variants that collectively determine species-specific lifespan16.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [16] Vijg, J. & Campisi, J. Puzzles, promises and a cure for ageing. Nature 454, 1065–1071 (2008) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
In “Evolutionary logic of ageing” (page unavailable), the paper says species differences in longevity probably arose through subtle changes in many genes and that targeting a single gene or pathway may therefore have limited effects. It does not establish that genetic variants impose an essential constraint on extending human lifespan; “Translation to humans” says the extent of possible extension remains unknown. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“To further extend human lifespan beyond the limits set by these longevity-assurance systems would require interventions beyond improving health span, some of which are currently under investigation15.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [15] Longo, V. D. et al. Interventions to slow aging in humans: are we ready? Aging Cell 14, 497–510 (2015) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction reports interventions that extend lifespan in experimental organisms, and the Conclusions describe interventions being considered to increase human healthspan. Neither passage says that extending human lifespan beyond limits set by “longevity-assurance systems” requires interventions beyond improving healthspan. Our copy gives no page numbers for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Partly supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Here, by analysing global demographic data, we show that improvements in survival with age tend to decline after age 100, and that the age at death of the world’s oldest person has not increased since the 1990s.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“human yearly MRAD has plateaued at 114.9 (95% CI: 113.1–116.7) years.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
- Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results indicate that the age with greatest improvement in survival appeared to plateau around 1980.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: The 41 countries in the Human Mortality Database are representative of developed, low-mortality countries.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the rate of improvement in survival peaks and then declines for very old age levels (Fig. 1c)”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: The 41 countries in the Human Mortality Database are representative of developed, low-mortality countries.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we found that the probability of an MRAD exceeding 125 in any given year is less than 1 in 10,000.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
- Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Notably, even the annual average age at death for these supercentenarians has not increased since 1968 (Fig. 2c).”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
- Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Here, by analysing global demographic data, we show that improvements in survival with age tend to decline after age 100, and that the age at death of the world’s oldest person has not increased since the 1990s.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: The 41 countries in the Human Mortality Database are representative of developed, low-mortality countries.
- Probably not a substantial claim. 4
- It may state two separate claims as one. 8
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Demographic evidence has revealed an ongoing reduction in old-age mortality and a rise of the maximum age at death, which may gradually extend human longevity1,2.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [1] Oeppen, J. & Vaupel, J. W. Demography. Broken limits to life expectancy. Science 296, 1029–1031 (2002) source
- Partly supportedcites [2] Vaupel, J. W. Biodemography of human ageing. Nature 464, 536–542 (2010) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
In ‘The postponement of mortality’ (page unavailable), the paper says mortality at advanced ages is being postponed and challenges the idea of a fixed maximum lifespan. ‘Forecasts and consequences of longer lives’ documents rising life expectancy. Our copy does not establish the more specific claim that the maximum observed age at death has risen. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“however, after 1995 it no longer increased significantly and in fact decreased slightly by 0.28 years per year (r = −0.35, P = 0.27).”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
- Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As shown in Fig. 2a, although age at death increased rapidly between the 1970s and early 1990s, it reached a plateau around 1995, close to 1997, the year Jeanne Calment died.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
- Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we observed a similar trend—an increase by 0.12 years per year (r = 0.71, P=0.0002) during the period 1972–1994, followed by a slight decrease by 0.14 years per year (r = −0.36, P=0.70) during the period 1995–2015”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
- Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.
In the paper
“More recent data, however, show evidence for a decline in late-life mortality, with the fraction of each birth cohort reaching old age increasing with calendar year.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [8] The Human Mortality Database ( http://www.mortality.org , 2016)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The 41 countries in the Human Mortality Database are representative of developed, low-mortality countries.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“With the caveat that the ages at death of the supercentenarians in our present study are still noisy and made up of small samples”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“As shown by data from the Human Mortality Database8, many of the historical gains in life expectancy have been attributed to a reduction in early-life mortality.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [8] The Human Mortality Database ( http://www.mortality.org , 2016)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Studies in model organisms have shown that maximum lifespan is flexible and can be affected by genetic and pharmacological interventions5.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [5] Kenyon, C. The plasticity of aging: insights from long-lived mutants. Cell 120, 449–460 (2005) source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Maximum lifespan is, in contrast to average lifespan, generally assumed to be a stable characteristic of a species3.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [3] Austad, S. N. in Molecular and Cellular Biology of Aging (eds Vijg, J., Campisi, J. & Lithgow, G. ) Ch. 2 (The Gerontological Society of America, 2015)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our results strongly suggest that the maximum lifespan of humans is fixed and subject to natural constraints.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · boosted
“our data strongly suggest that the duration of life is limited.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · boosted
“our results strongly suggest that human lifespan has a natural limit.”
§ Evidence for a limit to human lifespan > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
- Rests on an assumption: The MRAD records from France, Japan, UK and US are representative of the global human population for estimating maximum human lifespan.
- Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · boosted
The paper relies on this without support.
The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
“We first plotted the yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) of France, Japan, UK and US, countries with the largest number of recorded supercentenarians (individuals aged 110 years old or more) in the International Database on Longevity9 (IDL; n = 534, 1968–2006).”
The paper relies on this without support.
The MRAD records from France, Japan, UK and US are representative of the global human population for estimating maximum human lifespan.
“We first plotted the yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) of France, Japan, UK and US, countries with the largest number of recorded supercentenarians (individuals aged 110 years old or more) in the International Database on Longevity9 (IDL; n = 534, 1968–2006).”
The paper relies on this without support.
The 41 countries in the Human Mortality Database are representative of developed, low-mortality countries.
“This pattern is very similar across the other 40 countries and territories included in the database (Extended Data Figs 2, 3).”
“The same pattern was found across other developed, low-mortality countries (Extended Data Fig. 4).”
The paper relies on this without support.
The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.
“We first plotted the yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) of France, Japan, UK and US, countries with the largest number of recorded supercentenarians (individuals aged 110 years old or more) in the International Database on Longevity9 (IDL; n = 534, 1968–2006).”
“When we considered MRAD records from another, independent resource, the Gerontological Research Group (GRG; http://www.grg.org/), we observed a similar trend”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“This occurred at the same time period that life expectancy at birth decelerated in all countries with long-lived populations and maximum lifespan stagnated21.”
From Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century (2024) · cites this paper as [21]
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Our results contribute to a recently rekindled debate (15–17) about the existence of a fixed maximum lifespan for humans, underwriting doubt that any limit is as yet in view.”
From The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers (2018) · cites this paper as [15]
In the citing paper
“Exceeding 115 is likely to occur for only a handful of people-and this has proven to be so (44).”
From Inconvenient Truths About Human Longevity (2019) · cites this paper as [44]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Dong, X., Milholland, B., & Vijg, J.
- Affiliations
- Albert Einstein College of Medicine (US)
- Corresponding author
- Vijg, Jan
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2016-10-05
- Volume
- 538
- Issue
- 7624
- Pages
- 257-259
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- PMC
- PMC11673931
- OpenAlex
- W2528628699
- Semantic Scholar
- 85351260d12042130ac86811a1187d7fad282f27
- Cited by
- 495
- References
- 12
- Citations by year
- 2026: 20 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 38 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 85 · 2020: 54 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 56 · 2017: 69 · 2016: 10
- FWCI
- 143.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health
- National Institute on Aging (P30AG038072, P01AG017242, P01AG047200)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Aging › Genetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model Organisms
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Cell Biology › Telomeres, Telomerase, and Senescence
- Keywords
- human lifespan, maximum lifespan, life expectancy, age at death, mortality decline, old-age mortality, demographic analysis, historical mortality trends
- MeSH terms
- Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Humans, Life Expectancy, Longevity, Models, Biological, Mortality, Species Specificity
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