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Cited by 67Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementGenetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model OrganismsTelomeres, Telomerase, and Senescence

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 50 of the 50 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 5 of the 36 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Inconvenient Truths About Human Longevity

Open access
Olshansky, S Jay, Carnes, Bruce A·2019·The Journals of Gerontology: Series A
DOI 10.1093/gerona/glz098
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

The rise in human longevity is one of humanity’s crowning achievements. Although advances in public health beginning in the 19th century initiated the rise in life expectancy, recent gains have been achieved by reducing death rates at middle and older ages. A debate about the future course of life expectancy has been ongoing for the last quarter century. Some suggest that historical trends in longevity will continue and radical life extension is either visible on the near horizon or it has already arrived; whereas others suggest there are biologically based limits to duration of life, and those limits are being approached now. In “inconvenient truths about human longevity” we lay out the line of reasoning and evidence for why there are limits to human longevity; why predictions of radical life extension are unlikely to be forthcoming; why health extension should supplant life extension as the primary goal of medicine and public health; and why promoting advances in aging biology may allow humanity to break through biological barriers that influence both life span and health span, allowing for a welcome extension of the period of healthy life, a compression of morbidity, but only a marginal further increase in life expectancy.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This review argues that human longevity has biologically based limits, with population life expectancy unlikely to exceed about 85 years without modifying aging biology. It contends that radical life-extension forecasts are unsupported by observed mortality trends and that medicine should prioritize health-span extension over life-span extension.

Key findings

  • Three independent lines of inquiry—life-table entropy, interspecies mortality comparisons, and evolutionary fertility/warranty-period reasoning—converge on an approximate upper limit of 85 years for human population life expectancy; exceeding it would require modifying the biology of aging.
  • U.S. mortality trends since 1990 contradict radical life-extension forecasts: annual improvement in life expectancy at birth averaged 0.17 years, not the predicted 0.2; no decade since 1990 saw a 2-year rise; only 9 of 26 years had increases of 0.2 years or more; 3 of the last 26 years saw declines; and the last 6 years averaged 0.017 years of improvement.
  • Forecasts that most babies born since 2000 will reach 100 require cohort life expectancy more than 20 years above period life expectancy—more than double the 9.3-year cohort–period gap observed for the 1900 birth cohort—and require accelerating old-age mortality declines, e.g., a 0.2-year annual gain requires total mortality to fall 2.2% annually today and 3.7% annually 50 years from now.
  • The authors recommend shifting from life extension to health-span extension and geroscience, arguing aging interventions may compress morbidity and extend healthy life but will likely produce only marginal further increases in life expectancy.

Methods

  • Review/argument paper synthesizing demographic and biodemographic evidence rather than presenting a new primary study.
  • Uses U.S. national vital statistics and Human Mortality Database trends, especially 1990–2016, to compare observed life expectancy improvement with forecasts of radical life extension.
  • Draws on life-table entropy calculations, interspecies mortality comparisons among humans, mice, and dogs, and evolutionary fertility/warranty-period reasoning to estimate limits to human longevity.

Limitations

  • The paper states no formal limitations section; it acknowledges that no one can know exactly how anticipated advances in aging biology will influence future life expectancy.
  • Evident from the text: as a review and argument, it relies on cited secondary analyses and selected mortality statistics rather than new empirical data or a systematic review.
  • Evident from the text: its projections about aging interventions and health-span extension are forward-looking and not tested here.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1093/gerona/glz098

Cites

50 of 50 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

5 of 36 cited sources checked · 3 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    Evidence amassed in recent years indicates that aging science shows great promise as a method of extending health span.

    “Evidence amassed in recent years indicates that aging science shows great promise as a method of extending health span (50)(51)(52)(53)(54)(55)(56).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [50] Kennedy, 2014, Drugs that modulate aging: the promising yet difficult path ahead, Transl Res. source
    • cites [51] Kennedy, 2014, Geroscience: linking aging to chronic disease, Cell. source
    • cites [52] Kirkland, 2013, Translating advances from the basic biology of aging into clinical application, Exp Gerontol. source
  • Findingcitation

    During the 20th century, life expectancy at birth rose by an unprecedented 30 years.

    “during the 20th century when life expectancy at birth rose by an unprecedented 30 years (faster than at any time in recorded history)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites (7), Figure 1

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Findingown data

    The annual rate of improvement in life expectancy since 1990 in the U.S. was only 0.17 years.

    “the annual rate of improvement in life expectancy since 1990 was only 0.17 years (not 0.2 as predicted by Vaupel)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingcitation

    The resulting maximum median age at death for humans fell within the mid to upper 80s.

    “The resulting maximum median age at death for humans (an approximation of life expectancy at birth) fell within the mid to upper 80s.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [33] Carnes, 2006, Mortality partitions and their relevance to research on senescence, Biogerontology. source
  • Findingown data

    There were only 9 years of the 26 since 1990 that life expectancy rose by 0.2 years or more in the U.S.

    “there were only 9 years of the 26 since 1990 that life expectancy rose by 0.2 years or more”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 19
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 7

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingcitation

    Since the middle of the 20th century, the only decade that witnessed an increase in life expectancy at birth that exceeded two years was during the 1970s when cardiovascular disease began to decline precipitously.

    “In fact, since the middle of the 20th century, the only decade that witnessed an increase in life expectancy at birth that exceeded two years was during the 1970s when cardiovascular disease began to decline precipitously”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [24] Case, 2015, Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. source

      The introductory section reports declining mortality among adults aged 45–54 from 1970 to 2013, but does not give decade-by-decade changes in life expectancy at birth. The Significance section discusses a pause in midlife mortality decline in the 1960s, not a uniquely large life-expectancy gain in the 1970s. Searches for the two-year threshold and the claimed cardiovascular-disease decline found no passage establishing either point. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [25] Crimmins, 2015, Lifespan and healthspan: past, present, and promise, Gerontologist. source

      The “Lifespan or Life Expectancy” section says that declining heart-disease mortality contributed substantially to increases in life expectancy in the last decades of the 20th century. It does not say that the 1970s were the only decade since mid-century with a gain exceeding two years, or that cardiovascular mortality began a precipitous decline then. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingreasoning

    Such acceleration rarely occurred in the past and is not occurring now.

    “such acceleration rarely occurred in the past and is not occurring now.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingcitation

    Improvements in world record running times for the mile have not changed in the last 19 years, and for decades prior to 1999 the rate of improvement decelerated.

    “Improvements in world record running times for the mile have not changed in the last 19 years, and for decades prior to 1999 the rate of improvement decelerated.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [9] Berthelot, 2010, Athlete atypicity on the edge of human achievement: performances stagnate after the last peak, in 1988, PLoS One. source

      Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.

    • cites [10] Berthelot, 2015, Has athletic performance reached its peak?, Sports Med. source

      Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingcitation

    Exceeding 115 is likely to occur for only a handful of people, and this has proven to be so.

    “Exceeding 115 is likely to occur for only a handful of people-and this has proven to be so (44).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [44] Dong, 2016, Evidence for a limit to human lifespan, Nature. source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingreasoning

    The observed rise in life expectancy and observed declines in death rates have not in the past, and are not now, occurring at the pace predicted by those claiming radical life extension is forthcoming or already happening.

    “The fourth inconvenient truth is that the observed rise in life expectancy and observed declines in death rates have not in the past, and are not now, occurring at the pace predicted by those claiming radical life extension is forthcoming or is already happening.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    There is a rise of a large number of companies that have taken on the challenge of aging science, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has accepted that aging is a legitimate target for therapeutic interventions.

    “We are now witnessing the rise of a large number of companies that have taken on this challenge and the acceptance by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration that aging is a legitimate target for therapeutic interventions (1).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [1] Olshansky, 2015

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisereasoning

    If death rates decline, period life expectancy at birth will underestimate how long the cohort will live; if death rates rise, period life expectancy overestimates duration of life.

    “If death rates decline, as they did in the 20th century, then period life expectancy at birth will underestimate how long the cohort will live; if death rates rise, then period life expectancy overestimates duration of life.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationreasoning

    If the goal of aging science and modern medicine shifts from trying to make us live longer to extending the period of healthy life, we no longer have to fight the uphill battle against life table entropy.

    “If the goal of aging science and modern medicine shifts from its historical emphasis on trying to make us live longer, to a new goal of extending the period of healthy life, we no longer have to fight the uphill battle against life table entropy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given

    There is no reason to believe that natural selection favored such limits explicitly, but the limits exist nonetheless.

    “There is no reason to believe that natural selection favored such limits explicitly, but the limits exist nonetheless.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given

    Health-span extension can be measured in the short term, which means public health will quickly know whether an aging intervention is having the desired outcome.

    “Health-span extension can also be measured in the short term, which means public health will quickly know whether an aging intervention is having the desired outcome.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    The rise in life expectancy in developed nations has decelerated in recent decades, and it has begun to level off just short of 85 in many of today's developed nations.

    “It is therefore not surprising that the rise in life expectancy in developed nations has decelerated in recent decades, and that it has begun to level off just short of 85 in many of today's developed nations (24,25).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [24] Case, 2015, Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. source
    • cites [25] Crimmins, 2015, Lifespan and healthspan: past, present, and promise, Gerontologist. source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    If we continue to attack chronic fatal and disabling diseases in the future as we have in the past, we might succeed in postponing death, but the price of this success will likely be a rise in the prevalence and severity of aging related conditions.

    “If we continue to attack chronic fatal and disabling diseases in the future as we have in the past, we might very well succeed in postponing death, but the price of this success will likely be a rise in the prevalence and severity of aging related conditions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    Hyperbole about the impact of interventions in aging biology that do not yet exist is unnecessary given that trends in population aging and life extension already experienced are sufficient rationale for accelerated funding of aging science.

    “The second inconvenient truth is that hyperbole about the impact of interventions in aging biology that do not yet exist, and the resulting hypothetical future course of human longevity, is unnecessary given that trends in population aging and life extension already experienced, is sufficient rationale for accelerated funding of aging science.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Life expectancy at birth for any national population was unlikely to ever exceed 85 years without a breakthrough in aging biology.

    “Notions of limits to human longevity have been made before (26)(27)(28)-with a specific prediction that life expectancy at birth for any national population was unlikely to ever exceed 85 years without a breakthrough in aging biology.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [26] Bourgeois-Pichat, 1978, Future outlook for mortality decline in the world, Population Bulletin of the United Nations.
    • cites [27] Fries, 1980, Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity, N Engl J Med. source
    • cites [28] Olshansky, 1990, In search of Methuselah: estimating the upper limits to human longevity, Science. source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Once normalized for time, mortality schedules of species should overlap, revealing a common mortality pattern and a predicted maximum life span for each species.

    “Once normalized for time, these mortality schedules should, according to evolutionary theory (34), overlap-revealing a common mortality pattern and a predicted maximum life span for each species.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [34] Carnes, 1996, Continuing the search for a law of mortality, Population and Development Review. source
    • Rests on an assumption: Almost all sexually reproducing species possess an intrinsic mortality signature linked to the reproductive schedule inherited by each species.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationcitation

    Forecasts of linear increases in cohort life expectancy at birth and accelerating declines in death rates at older ages are radically different from the past and presented directly in the face of contradicting empirical evidence that life expectancy at birth is decelerating in many developed nations.

    “The third inconvenient truth is that forecasts of linear increases in cohort life expectancy at birth and accelerating declines in death rates at older ages are not just sharp deviations from the past-they are radically different, and presented directly in the face of contradicting empirical evidence that life expectancy at birth is decelerating in many developed nations.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisereasoning

    Humans cannot run as fast as a cheetah, jump as high as a gazelle, or live as long as a Greenland shark (392 ± 120 years) because the body design of each species is not optimized with longevity as the end game.

    “The fact is, humans cannot run as fast as a cheetah, jump as high as a gazelle, or live as long as a Greenland shark (392 ± 120 years) because the body design of each species, which is based on a genetically determined set of life history attributes that evolved over millions of years, are not optimized with longevity as the end game.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    For extrapolation-based forecasts of cohort life expectancy to come true now, cohort life expectancy for babies born today would need to be greater than 20 years higher than period life expectancy at birth-more than double the magnitude of the difference observed during the last century.

    “For extrapolation-based forecasts of cohort life expectancy to come true now, cohort life expectancy for babies born today would need to be greater than 20 years higher than period life expectancy at birth-more than double the magnitude of the difference observed during the last century.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Promoting advances in aging biology may allow humanity to break through biological barriers that influence both life span and health span, allowing for a welcome extension of the period of healthy life, a compression of morbidity, but only a marginal further increase in life expectancy.

    “why promoting advances in aging biology may allow humanity to break through biological barriers that influence both life span and health span, allowing for a welcome extension of the period of healthy life, a compression of morbidity, but only a marginal further increase in life expectancy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The rise of diseases of aging such as heart disease, cancer, stroke, and Alzheimer's disease was not a consequence of failure to live a healthy lifestyle or of increasingly polluted environments; it was a product of success.

    “The rise of diseases of aging such as heart disease, cancer, stroke, and Alzheimer's disease, to name a few, were not a consequence of humanity's failure to live a healthy lifestyle or the consequence of increasingly more polluted environments-they were a product of success.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: In the modern era in long-lived populations, we now live long enough for aging related diseases to impact human health.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Public health played a critical role in the beginning when easy gains in longevity were possible by saving the young, but these easy gains cannot happen again.

    “Public health played a critical role in the beginning when the easy gains in longevity were possible by saving the young, but these easy gains cannot happen again.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Three-dimensional forecasting models that rely on the observed health status of living cohorts as the basis for predicting death rates have been proposed as the best method of forecasting life expectancy.

    “Instead, three-dimensional forecasting models that rely on the observed health status of living cohorts as the basis for predicting death rates have been proposed as the best method of forecasting life expectancy.(30)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [30] Reither, 2011, New forecasting methodology indicates more disease and earlier mortality ahead for today’s younger Americans, Health Aff (Millwood). source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Bodies have biological warranty periods, and the expiration date of those warranty periods is linked to the time required to reach sexual maturity, reproduce, nurture young, and (for some species) provide grandparenting.

    “Our third line of inquiry on limits was predicated on the evolutionary conclusion that bodies have biological warranty periods and that the expiration date of those warranty periods is linked to the time required to reach sexual maturity, reproduce, nurture young, and (for some species) provide grandparenting (43).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [43] Carnes, 2003, Biological evidence for limits to the duration of life, Biogerontology. source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The 85-year life expectancy limit is for a population, which means approximately 40% of the original birth cohort must live at least to age 90, 5%-6% is likely to reach 100, and a small percentage is expected to reach ages 110-115.

    “Keep in mind that this 85-year life expectancy limit is for a population, which means approximately 40 per cent of the original birth cohort must live at least to age 90 years; 5%-6% is likely to reach 100; and even a small percentage of the cohort is expected to reach the ages of 110-115 years.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
24 of 24

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    When life expectancy at birth approaches 80 years, the vast majority of all deaths in a population are concentrated between ages 60 and 95 years.

    “when life expectancy at birth approaches 80 years, the vast majority of all deaths in a population are concentrated between ages 60 and 95 years.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Death rates in the age window 60-95 have a doubling time of approximately 7-8 years.

    “As death rates in this age window are so high with a doubling time of approximately 7-8 years”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Aging has become the dominant risk factor for diseases at older ages.

    “they're high at these ages because aging has become the dominant risk factor for diseases”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Aging is currently immutable.

    “and as aging is currently immutable”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Almost all sexually reproducing species possess an intrinsic mortality signature linked to the reproductive schedule inherited by each species.

    “it was earlier hypothesized that almost all sexually reproducing species possess an intrinsic mortality signature (eg, schedules of age-specific death rates) that is linked specifically to the reproductive schedule inherited by each species.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    In the modern era in long-lived populations, we now live long enough for aging related diseases to impact human health.

    “In the modern era in long-lived populations we now live long enough for aging related diseases to impact human health.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There can be no genetically driven program for aging or death.

    “while there can be no geneticallydriven program for aging or death”
7 of 7

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 5

  1. Olshansky, 2015, Aging: The Longevity Dividend
  2. Olshansky, 2013, A Measured Breath of Life, 27
  3. Olshansky, 2007, Re-engineering humans, The Scientist., 21, 28
  4. Olshansky, 2002, The truth about human aging, Scientific American.
  5. Pearl, 1922, A comparison of the laws of mortality in Drosophila and in man, Am Nat., 56, 398

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Metadata

Authors
Olshansky, S. J., & Carnes, B. A.
Affiliations
  • University of Illinois Chicago (US)
  • University of Oklahoma (US)
Corresponding author
Olshansky, S Jay
ORCID
Olshansky, S Jay
Venue
The Journals of Gerontology: Series A
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2019-04-19
Volume
74
Issue
Supplement_1
Pages
S7-S12
ISSN
  • 1079-5006 (ISSN-L)
  • 1758-535X
DOI
10.1093/gerona/glz098
OpenAlex
W2938027664
Cited by
67
References
50
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 4
FWCI
2.64
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model (vor)
Locations
  • The Journals of Gerontology Series A (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
Glenn Foundation for Medical Research
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Aging › Genetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model Organisms
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Cell Biology › Telomeres, Telomerase, and Senescence
Keywords
human longevity, life expectancy, radical life extension, health extension, biological aging, compression of morbidity, healthspan, mortality trends
MeSH terms
Healthy Aging, Aged, Forecasting, Humans, Life Expectancy, Longevity

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