Planning for tomorrow: global cancer incidence and the role of prevention 2020–2070
Abstract
Cancer is currently the first or second most common contributor to premature mortality in most countries of the world. The global number of patients with cancer is expected to rise over the next 50 years owing to the strong influence of demographic changes, such as population ageing and growth, on the diverging trends in cancer incidence in different regions. Assuming that the latest incidence trends continue for the major cancer types, we predict a doubling of the incidence of all cancers combined by 2070 relative to 2020. The greatest increases are predicted in lower-resource settings, in countries currently assigned a low Human Development Index (HDI), whereas the predicted increases in national burden diminish with increasing levels of national HDI. Herein, we assess studies modelling the future burden of cancer that underscore how comprehensive cancer prevention strategies can markedly reduce the prevalence of major risk factors and, in so doing, the number of future cancer cases. Focusing on an in-depth assessment of prevention strategies that target tobacco smoking, overweight and obesity, and human papillomavirus infection, we discuss how stepwise, population-level approaches with amenable goals can avert millions of future cancer diagnoses worldwide. In the absence of a step-change in cancer prevention delivery, tobacco smoking will remain the leading preventable cause of cancer, and overweight and obesity might well present a comparable opportunity for prevention, given its increasing prevalence globally in the past few decades. Countries must therefore instigate national cancer control programmes aimed at preventing cancer, and with some urgency, if such programmes are to yield the desired public health and economic benefits in this century.
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Investments in prevention, including the targeting of key risk factors for cancer (including smoking, overweight and obesity, and infections), can avert millions of future cancer diagnoses and save many lives worldwide.
“Investments in prevention, including the targeting of key risk factors for cancer (including smoking, overweight and obesity, and infections), can avert millions of future cancer diagnoses and save many lives worldwide, 188”
From Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. (2024) · cites this paper as [188]
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- Authors
- Soerjomataram, I., & Bray, F.
- Affiliations
- Centre international de recherche sur le cancer (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Soerjomataram, Isabelle
- Venue
- Nature Reviews Clinical Oncology
- Published
- 2021-06-02
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 663-672
- ISSN
- 1759-4774 (ISSN-L)
- 1759-4782
- OpenAlex
- W3164332865
- Cited by
- 1,012
- References
- 84
- Citations by year
- 2026: 137 · 2025: 297 · 2024: 246 · 2023: 222 · 2022: 98 · 2021: 11
- FWCI
- 17.48
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Nature Reviews Clinical Oncology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- World Health Organization
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer Risks and Factors
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection
- Keywords
- cancer incidence projections, cancer prevention, smoking, overweight and obesity, HPV infection, Human Development Index, population aging, cancer control programs, population-level prevention, resource-limited settings, premature mortality
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Humans, Life Expectancy, Neoplasms, Population Dynamics, Risk Factors, Global Health, Incidence, Age Distribution, Health Status Disparities
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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