Fourth Dose of BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Setting
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: With large waves of infection driven by the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), alongside evidence of waning immunity after the booster dose of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccine, several countries have begun giving at-risk persons a fourth vaccine dose. METHODS: To evaluate the early effectiveness of a fourth dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine for the prevention of Covid-19-related outcomes, we analyzed data recorded by the largest health care organization in Israel from January 3 to February 18, 2022. We evaluated the relative effectiveness of a fourth vaccine dose as compared with that of a third dose given at least 4 months earlier among persons 60 years of age or older. We compared outcomes in persons who had received a fourth dose with those in persons who had not, individually matching persons from these two groups with respect to multiple sociodemographic and clinical variables. A sensitivity analysis was performed with the use of parametric Poisson regression. RESULTS: The primary analysis included 182,122 matched pairs. Relative vaccine effectiveness in days 7 to 30 after the fourth dose was estimated to be 45% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44 to 47) against polymerase-chain-reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, 55% (95% CI, 53 to 58) against symptomatic Covid-19, 68% (95% CI, 59 to 74) against Covid-19-related hospitalization, 62% (95% CI, 50 to 74) against severe Covid-19, and 74% (95% CI, 50 to 90) against Covid-19-related death. The corresponding estimates in days 14 to 30 after the fourth dose were 52% (95% CI, 49 to 54), 61% (95% CI, 58 to 64), 72% (95% CI, 63 to 79), 64% (95% CI, 48 to 77), and 76% (95% CI, 48 to 91). In days 7 to 30 after a fourth vaccine dose, the difference in the absolute risk (three doses vs. four doses) was 180.1 cases per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 142.8 to 211.9) for Covid-19-related hospitalization and 68.8 cases per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 48.5 to 91.9) for severe Covid-19. In sensitivity analyses, estimates of relative effectiveness against documented infection were similar to those in the primary analysis. CONCLUSIONS: A fourth dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was effective in reducing the short-term risk of Covid-19-related outcomes among persons who had received a third dose at least 4 months earlier. (Funded by the Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.).
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Plenty of articles have demonstrated the efficacy of two-dose vaccination and additional boosters in reducing mortality and severe cases.
“As plenty of articles have demonstrated the efficacy of two-dose vaccination and additional boosters in reducing mortality and severe cases [13,14,35-37]”
From Protective effect of COVID-19 vaccination against long COVID syndrome: A systematic review and meta-analysis (2023) · cites this paper as [35]
The Discussion reports that a fourth dose provided early protection against severe Covid-19 and Covid-19-related death compared with a third dose given at least four months earlier in people aged 60 or older. The paper does not demonstrate that two-dose vaccination reduces those outcomes; its introduction instead describes two doses as offering limited protection against omicron. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBooster vaccines seem promising both in preventing infection and severe progression.
“Since booster vaccines seem promising both in preventing infection and severe progression [35-37]”
From Protective effect of COVID-19 vaccination against long COVID syndrome: A systematic review and meta-analysis (2023) · cites this paper as [35]
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Design and Implementation of Observational Studies Emulating a Target Trial
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Cellular and humoral response to the fourth BNT162b2 mRNA COVID‐19 vaccine dose in patients with CLL
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The Efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in the Elderly: A Systemic Review and Meta-analysis
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Challenges in Emerging Vaccines and Future Promising Candidates against SARS‐CoV‐2 Variants
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Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance
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The Omicron-transformer: Rise of the subvariants in the age of vaccines
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The Four Ws of the Fourth Dose COVID-19 Vaccines: Why, Who, When and What
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- Authors
- Magen, O., Waxman, J. G., Makov-Assif, M., Vered, R., Dicker, D., Hernán, M. A., Lipsitch, M., Reis, B. Y., Balicer, R. D., & Dagan, N.
- Affiliations
- Ben-Gurion University of the Negev (IL)
- From the Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division (O.M., J.G.W., M.M.-A., R.D.B., N.D.), and the Tel-Aviv District, Community Division (R.V.), Clalit Health Services, and the Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel-Aviv University (D.D.), Tel Aviv, the Department of Internal Medicine D, Hasharon Hospital Rabin Medical Center, Petah Tikva (D.D.), and the School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences (R.D.B.), and the Department of Software and Information Systems Engineering (N.D.), Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Be’er Sheva — all in Israel; and the Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and CAUSALab (M.A.H.) and the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Departments of Epidemiology and of Immunology and Infectious Diseases (M.L.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, the Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute (B.Y.R., R.D.B., N.D.), the Predictive Medicine Group, Computational Health Informatics P...
- Corresponding author
- Dagan, Noa
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2022-04-28
- Volume
- 386
- Issue
- 17
- Pages
- 1603-1614
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- PMC
- PMC9020581
- OpenAlex
- W4223907450
- Cited by
- 279
- References
- 10
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 45 · 2023: 113 · 2022: 92
- FWCI
- 32.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- the Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute
- Morris-Singer Fund
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Keywords
- BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, fourth vaccine dose, COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, Omicron variant, waning immunity, booster vaccination, older adults, COVID-19 hospitalization, COVID-19 mortality, symptomatic COVID-19, Israel, matched cohort analysis, sensitivity analysis, Poisson regression
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, BNT162 Vaccine, Humans, Immunization, Secondary, Israel, Middle Aged, RNA, Messenger, Treatment Outcome
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