Solar geoengineering may lead to excessive cooling and high strategic uncertainty
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117, 1049-1068 (2015)]. This study is an empirical test of this hypothesis. We carry out an economic laboratory experiment based on a public "good or bad" game. We find compelling evidence of free-driving: global geoengineering exceeds the socially efficient level and leads to welfare losses. We also evaluate the possibility of counteracting the geoengineering efforts of others. Results show that countergeoengineering generates high payoff inequality as well as heavy welfare losses, resulting from both strategic and behavioral factors. Finally, we compare strategic behavior in bilateral and multilateral settings. We find that welfare deteriorates even more under multilateralism when countergeoengineering is a possibility. These results have general implications for governing global good or bad commons.
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Initial game theoretic research indicates the possibility of overcooling if SAI is pursued by uncoordinated actors.
“Initial game theoretic research indicates the possibility of overcooling if SAI is pursued by uncoordinated actors (Abatayo et al., 2020).”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Abatayo et al., 2020
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- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We acknowledge audiences at the Climate Workshop at Copenhagen University; the Center for Environmental EconomicsMontpellier Workshop at the University of Montpellier; and the seminar participants at Bocconi University, Bologna University, Carleton University, Chapman University, the Economic Science Association Meeting in San Diego, European University Institute, Guelph University, Ohio State University, University of Hamburg, University of Trento, University of British Columbia, and Toulouse School of Economics for their helpful comments. V.B. was supported by European Commission Grant ERC-2013-StG. A.L.A. and V.B. were supported by European Commission Grant 336703-RISICO. The funders have no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
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- Authors
- Abatayo, A. L., Bosetti, V., Casari, M., Ghidoni, R., & Tavoni, M.
- Affiliations
- Bocconi University (IT)
- RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (IT)
- University of Bologna (IT)
- Tilburg University (NL)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2020-06
- Volume
- 117
- Issue
- 24
- Pages
- 13393-13398
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC7306787
- OpenAlex
- W3031675253
- Cited by
- 52
- References
- 45
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 3.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Virtual Community of Pathological Anatomy (University of Castilla La Mancha) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- BOA (University of Milano-Bicocca) (submittedVersion)
- Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- solar geoengineering, strategic uncertainty, global commons, public goods, multilateralism, welfare loss, payoff inequality, laboratory experiments
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