An interpretable molecular framework for predicting cancer driver missense mutations
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Missense mutations play a critical role in human disease, contributing to both inherited disorders and cancer. However, accurately predicting their functional impact—particularly for cancer driver mutations—remains a major challenge due to limited validated labels and the complex molecular basis of oncogenesis. Here, we systematically characterized over 120,000 missense variants across pathogenic, benign, driver, passenger, recurrent somatic, and common population classes, using a comprehensive set of mechanistically grounded molecular features. By assessing the statistical burden of variations, we demonstrated that these features effectively discriminate among diverse variant classes and reveal a consistent enrichment of functional sites, structural integrity, and biophysical changes in pathogenic and driver mutations. Building on these insights, we developed MutaPheno, an interpretable framework for predicting the functional consequences of missense mutations. The model integrates 34 molecular-level features, encompassing structural, functional, physicochemical, and contextual descriptors, using a random forest algorithm. Trained exclusively on pathogenic and benign variants, MutaPheno achieved strong accuracy in predicting cancer driver mutations, outperforming both cancer-specific and general pathogenicity tools, while also demonstrating superior robustness when tested on unseen proteins. Our findings highlight the shared mechanisms between pathogenic and driver mutations and emphasize the role of molecular features in improving variant interpretation. MutaPheno provides a transparent and generalizable tool that can facilitate driver discovery and the development of targeted therapies.
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Laddach, A., Ng, J. C.-F., & Fraternali, F. (2021) · PLoS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001207 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
ENPD - A Database of Eukaryotic Nucleic Acid Binding Proteins: Linking Gene Regulations to Proteins
Leung, R. W. T., Jiang, X., Chu, K. H., & Qin, J. (2018) · Nucleic Acids Research · doi:10.1093/nar/gky1112 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Missense Variants Reveal Functional Insights Into the Human ARID Family of Gene Regulators
Deák, G., & Cook, A. G. (2022) · Journal of Molecular Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jmb.2022.167529 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Zheng, F., Jiang, X., Wen, Y., Yang, Y., & Li, M. (2024) · Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal · doi:10.1016/j.csbj.2023.12.018 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Self-citationAre Next-Generation Pathogenicity Predictors Applicable to Cancer?
Ostroverkhova, D., Sheng, Y., & Panchenko, A. (2024) · Journal of Molecular Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jmb.2024.168644 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Wierbowski, S. D., Fragoza, R., Liang, S., & Yu, H. (2018) · Current Opinion in Systems Biology · doi:10.1016/j.coisb.2018.09.006 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 92 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Luo, D., Zheng, J., Du, X.-K., Xia, D., Zhang, M., & Liang, Z. T. (2026) · Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling · doi:10.1021/acs.jcim.6c01767
Liu, Y., Zhang, J., & Li, M. (2026) · Protein Science · doi:10.1002/pro.70728
Self-citation
- Authors
- Yang, Y., Sun, W., Liu, Y., Zhang, J., & Li, M.
- Affiliations
- Soochow University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Li, Minghui
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2026-02-03
- Volume
- 123
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- e2524289123-e2524289123
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC12890849
- OpenAlex
- W7127438624
- Cited by
- 3
- References
- 92
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3
- FWCI
- 12.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genomics and Rare Diseases
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Cancer Research › Cancer Genomics and Diagnostics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › BRCA gene mutations in cancer
- Keywords
- missense mutations, cancer driver mutations, variant pathogenicity prediction, molecular features, random forest, model interpretability, somatic mutations, recurrent somatic mutations, protein structure, physicochemical properties, variant interpretation
- MeSH terms
- Algorithms, Humans, Neoplasms, Computational Biology, Mutation, Missense
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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