Cyber War Will Not Take Place

“As illustrative examples, we mention the cyber attacks on power transmission networks operated by SCADA systems reported in the public media [11], and the Stuxnet malware that supposedly infected an industrial control system and disrupted its operation [9, 21].”

“As illustrative examples, we mention the cyberattacks on power transmission networks operated by SCADA systems [3] and the Stuxnet malware that allegedly infected an industrial control system and disrupted its operation [4], [5].”

“There are several examples of cyber threats being exploited by attackers to disrupt the behavior of physical processes, for instance the staged attack on a power generator [2] or the more recent Stuxnet virus attack on centrifuges’ control system [3], [4].”

“than physical combat [17, 18], it is unsurprising that many are skeptical of deterrence.”

“For example, the power transmission networks were hit by the cyberattacks operated on supervisory control and data acquisition systems in 2009 [8] and an industrial control system was infected by the Stuxnet malware in 2010 [9].”

“E.g., Buchanan 2016; Choucri 2012; Demchak and Dombrowski 2011; Gartzke 2013; Kello 2017; Lindsay 2013; Rid 2013; Valeriano and Maness 2015.”

“…but the more likely scenario is that cyber-war will not take place, cyber-attackers will continue to encounter challenges in levying physical destruction, and cyber techniques are poorly suited to the task of formenting terror (Gartzke, 2013; Rid, 2012; Valeriano & Maness, 2015; Lindsay, 2013).”

“’ and lacks consent from the one who is entitled.(62) Case law helps us unpack s1 CMA further.”

“Cyber warfare often lacks the central components of war: large-scale physical destruction, massive violence and compelling an actor to the political will of another (Rid 2012).”

“8 Cyber security has traditionally been more concerned with ‘attacks’ on computer systems, for purposes of espionage, sabotage or crime or in hypothetical ‘cyberwars’ (Rid, 2012).”

“Dunn Cavelty (2007), Rid (2012, 2013) and Singer and Friedman (2014) provide some excel- lent discussion on cyber war and cyber security.”

“Most scholars working on cyber issues, however, argue that cyber capabilities are unlikely to be critical to warfare ( Junio 2013, Rid 2012).”

“(Rid, 2012, p. 29).”

“22 Why cyber-incidents are linked to different threat categories, from which speci fi c responses are deducted, has not been of interests.”

“In the absence of any firm notion of what, for example, a ‘cyberwar’ might actually look like, there may be little immediate societal pressure to avoid one, and plenty of latitude afforded to states to develop capabilities that might conceivably be used in one, if such a thing even exists.(130) Nevertheless, as Nina T…”

“…is a sub-category of political warfare and aims to undermine institutional as well as individual legitimacy and authority at the operational level, as part of the broader political warfare campaign designed to achieve strategic outcomes (Anderson, Irvine, and Schell 2014, 52; Rid 2012, 22).”

“…community exists between scholars conceptualising cybersecurity from a human security perspective (Deibert 2013; Mueller 2017; Dunn-Cavelty 2008) and those interested in the role of cyber threats in the context of state security (Demchak and Dombrowski 2011; Rid 2013; Singer and Friedman 2014).”

“Rid is correct to point out that cyber war is not happening, allowing us to argue that the processes developing in cyberspace is something a bit different from traditional warfare.(8) Cyber is a tactic, not a form of complete warfare.”

“electric grid [3] and the Stuxnet malware [4].”

“Many note the lack of empirical evidence to support the widespread fear of cyber-terrorism and cyber-warfare, for instance (Lewis, 2003; Stohl, 2007; Cavelty, 2007; Hansen & Nissenbaum, 2009; Rid, 2013).”

“physically violent, thus o ff ering an o ff -ramp for governments to mitigate potentially explosive situations and avoid the escalatory cycle of war (Rid, 2013; Valeriano & Jensen, 2019a).”

“…are both dependent on a particular capability (such as AI and cyber tools) and their access or ability to use the capabilities is vulnerable to an adversary’s exploitation or subversion – creating first-mover incentives (Rid 2013).23 Cybersecurity and nuclear weapon systems: nuclear risk redux?”

“The presence of totalitarian and dictatorial regimes may foster fear among the populace as a mechanism to ensure that the leadership retains power over time (Andress & Winterfeld, 2014; Rid, 2013; Stepanova, 2011).”

“Research articles on cyber-warfare and cyber-attacks date back to the early 1990s [8].”

“Rid (2012) and Whetham (2016b) conceive of peace and war as poles on a spectrum.”

“Robert Jervis, ‘Deterrence Theory Revisited’, World Politics 31/2 (January 1979), 289–324. Jeffrey Knopf identifies a ‘fourth wave’ of deterrence theory that addressed asymmetric threats in a post-9/11 international system. See Jeffrey W. Knopf, ‘The Fourth Wave in Deterrence Research’, Contemporary Security Policy 31…”

“This is because cyber threats to this infrastructure that belongs to the nation have never caused the loss of human life, never injured a person or never damaged a building [164].”

“41 However, to the best of our knowledge, distributed optimization problems under cyberattacks have not been studied at present.”

“There exist several examples of attacks on CPSs such as the first-ever control system malware called Stuxnet [26, 23], and other staged attacks in power generators [16].”

“secrets has had a relatively limited impact on competitive economic development (Rid 2013).”

“In 2011, Irans nuclear facilities were attacked by well-publicized false data-injection attacks (deception attacks, DAs), which destroyed up to 1000 fuel enrichment centrifuges [24].”

“The militarization of the Internet has been a recent topic of discussion for both military analysts (Arquilla and Rondfelt, 1997; Coker, 2004; Rid, 2013) and social theorists (Munro, 2010; Terranova, 2004; Virilio, 2000).”

“This is another area where scholars and practitioners continue to debate de fi nitions and where a signi fi cant degree of scepticism exists as to whether the term “ cyberwar ” itself is a helpful or accurate term (Rid 2012a, p. 10).”

“Scepticism over the reality of a genuine ‘cyber-threat’ increased significantly as a consequence of the apparently limited impact stemming from the Y2K millennium bug and has persisted into the twenty-first century (Arquilla and Ronfeldt, 1993; Rid, 2012).”

“Similarly to Mauer, Rid argues that cyber actions are not “sufficiently” violent and do not produce a significant number of casualties.(51) Stephen Walt argues that to understand the potential consequences of the utilisation of the cyberspace one must separate cyber-related dangers into four different groups: degradin…”

“Here the chosen e ff ect terms are aligned with those provided by Rid [131].”

“The digital space is indeed used as a vector of attacks to perpetrate crime and conduct operations of sabotage, disruption, espionage or subversion [Rid 2013; Maurer 2018].”

“34 From this perspective, quantum information technologies can be expected to run afoul of familiar infrastructural and institutional problems.”

“But no cyber wars have ever been waged and it is unlikely to happen in the future (Rid 2012).”

“These cyber operations were synchronized with the physical invasion, creating confusion and hampering Georgia’s ability to communicate internally and with the international community (Rid 2012).”

“Actually, many ,suchasStuxnet[3]andTritonattacks[4].”

“In contemporary times, cyber operations have been employed for a diverse range of activities, including shutting down nuclear facilities through computer viruses and spying on governments through various means (Rid 2012, 13).”

“Cyber power, as a predominant ingredient in cyber security policy development, informs views on the propensity for cyber war, with the internet once again the focal point of nationalistic power struggles (Gartzke 2013; Glaser and Kaufmann 1998; Rid 2012).”

“In terms of contribution to the scholarship on cyber conflict, Smeets’ book has the potential to be recognized as one of the most pivotal works in the field, on par with Arquilla and Ronfeldt (1993) and Rid (2012, 2013).”

“Some scholars even contend that the risk of conflict within or emanating from cyberspace is minimal or will simply not take place [35].”

“There are several examples of cyber threats being exploited by attackers to disrupt the behavior of physical processes, including a staged attack on a power generator [10] and the recent Stuxnet virus attack on centrifuges’ control system [16, 12].”

“78 Rid 2013, 5–7.”

“Consequently, military cyber power falls short of explaining this case—in line with growing evidence of the limited effectiveness of cyber operations in force projection (Gomez, 2016; Lindsay and Gartzke, 2018; Rid, 2013).”

“Instead, cyberattacks are ‘ merely sophisticated versions of three activities that are as old as warfare itself: subversion, espionage, and sabotage ’ (Rid 2012, 6).”

“Sony were indemnified for costs resulting from a 2014 attack (Sullivan 2016) and there were no publicly disputed exclusions from (the unknown number of) claims related to Wann-acry (Ralph 2017), even though both attacks were attributed to North Korea.”

“29 More theoretical approaches argue that cyberwar is a concept rather than a fact, with Joque stating “ it will be fruitful to understand cyber-war as a war against systems: computer systems, state systems, systems of organization, and even systems of meaning ” .”

“StuxNet malware in [2], [3]) related to security flaws in the cyber-physical systems gradually attracted researchers’ interest [4].”