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How Big is a Big Odds Ratio? Interpreting the Magnitudes of Odds Ratios in Epidemiological Studies
Abstract
The odds ratio (OR) is probably the most widely used index of effect size in epidemiological studies. The difficulty of interpreting the OR has troubled many clinical researchers and epidemiologists for a long time. We propose a new method for interpreting the size of the OR by relating it to differences in a normal standard deviate. Our calculations indicate that OR = 1.68, 3.47, and 6.71 are equivalent to Cohen's d = 0.2 (small), 0.5 (medium), and 0.8 (large), respectively, when disease rate is 1% in the nonexposed group; Cohen's d < 0.2 when OR <1.5, and Cohen's d > 0.8 when OR > 5.
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“Although the effect sizes of Hedges g and OR can be difficult to compare, outcomes based on continuous data and reported as Hedges g, appeared to generate larger effect sizes compared with dichotomous scoring, reported as OR [91].”
From The psychological subtype of intimate partner violence and its effect on mental health: a systematic review with meta-analyses (2022) · cites this paper as [91]
In the citing paper
“The mentoring structures and outcomes of the students in our study differed based on their gender and race/ethnicity, although the sizes of these differences were small (Cohen, 1992; Chen et al., 2010).”
From Race and Gender Differences in Undergraduate Research Mentoring Structures and Research Outcomes (2017) · cites this paper as Chen et al., 2010
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“cates a higher sensitivity to change [39].”
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“5, indicating a moderate effect size [41].”
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“Effect sizes are reported in terms of odds ratios (OR) and the small, medium, and large categories of Chen et al. (2010), respectively OR = 1.68, 3.47, and 6.71.”
BackgroundInfluentialFamily Structure Diversity and Youth Health Care Access and Interactions With Health Care Providers
Beckmeyer, J. J., & Russell, L. T. (2022) · Journal of Family Nursing · doi:10.1177/10748407221124133 · Cited by 8
“Based on the cutoffs provided by Chen et al. (2010), these ORs reflect small effect sizes.”
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Urbanavičiūtė, I., Lazauskaitė‐Zabielskė, J., & Žiedelis, A. (2022) · Applied Psychology · doi:10.1111/apps.12453 · Cited by 12
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“OR is the most used index of effect size in epidemiological research [27].”
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Nudging safety behavior in the steel industry: Evidence from two field studies
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“In general, the magnitude of an OR can be classified as small (1.5), medium (2.5), or large (4) (Chinn, 2000; Hasselblad & Hedges, 1995; S ´ anchez-Meca et al., 2003), although different fields and differences in the base-rate may imply different interpretations (Chen et al., 2010).”
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Xu, C., Li, H., Burr, S. D. L., Si, J., LeFevre, J., & Huang, B. (2022) · Journal of Experimental Child Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jecp.2021.105371 · Cited by 8
Ethnicity and Language Differences in Patient Experience: an Analysis of the HCAHPS Survey
Donaldson, C. D., Bharadwaj, A., Giafaglione, B., Patton, P., Fortier, M. A., & Kain, Z. N. (2021) · Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities · doi:10.1007/s40615-021-01029-0 · Cited by 8
Chua, K., Henderson, C., Grey, B., Holland, M., & Sevdalis, N. (2022) · Evaluation and Program Planning · doi:10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2022.102222 · Cited by 8
“An odds ratio (OR) smaller than 1.5 was considered to be a small effect size, whereas OR > 5.0 was considered to be a large effect size (Chen, Cohen, & Chen, 2010).”
BackgroundInfluentialHausheer, R., Doumas, D. M., & Esp, S. M. (2018) · Journal of Addictions & Offender Counseling · doi:10.1002/jaoc.12038 · Cited by 8
Walther, A., Grub, J., Tsar, S., Ehlert, U., Heald, A. H., Perrin, R. N., Ogrodniczuk, J. S., Seidler, Z. E., Rice, S., Kealy, D., et al. (2021) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/h3qy6 · Cited by 8
The Look Over Your Shoulder: Unethical Behaviour Decreases in the Physical Presence of ObserversPreprint
Köbis, N., van der Lingen, S., Cruz, T. D. D., Iragorri-Carter, D., van Prooijen, J., Righetti, F., & Lange, P. A. M. V. (2019) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/gxu96 · Cited by 8
Effect Size as a Measure of Difference Between Two Populations
Dey, R., & Mulekar, M. (2018) · Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining. 2nd Ed. · doi:10.1007/978-1-4939-7131-2_110195 · Cited by 10
Panier, L. Y. X., WICKRAMARATNE, P. J., Alschuler, D. M., Weissman, M. M., Posner, J. E., Gameroff, M. J., Bruder, G. E., & Jürgen Kayser, A. (2021) · Biological Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.biopsycho.2021.108040 · Cited by 7
“56) for every standard deviation increase (or decrease) in predictor variables, a small effect size (Chen et al., 2010; Ferguson, 2009).”
BackgroundSchool Mobility and High School Dropout: Seasonal and Developmental Timing Matters
Stamp, J., Frigon, C., Dupéré, V., Dion, É., Olivier, É., & Archambault, I. (2022) · Frontiers in Education · doi:10.3389/feduc.2022.887617 · Cited by 10
Binary Logistic Regression applied to erosion susceptibility mapping in the Southern Amazon
da Fonseca, E. L., & Filho, E. P. D. S. (2023) · Revista Brasileira de Geomorfologia · doi:10.20502/rbgeomorfologia.v24i4.2314 · Cited by 7
“Range of OR is from 0 to infinity: A value of 1 = no association with the specified risk (that is, the event or disease is equally likely in the high-and low-risk groups); as the value of OR increases or decreases away from 1, the association grows increasingly more robust (CHEN et al., 2010).”
BackgroundÁlvarez, I., Soler, J., Schmidt, C., & Pascual, J. C. (2024) · Journal of Psychosomatic Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychores.2024.111623 · Cited by 7
Bello-Haas, V. P. M. D., O’Connell, M. E., & Ursenbach, J. (2024) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0300026 · Cited by 7
Baldwin, R., Baidawi, S., Grové, C., Lam, T., Ogeil, R. P., Nehme, Z., Faulkner, A., Beard, N., Lubman, D. I., & Scott, D. A. (2024) · Child Abuse & Neglect · doi:10.1016/j.chiabu.2024.107086 · Cited by 7
“…due to the overpowering of the sample, a significance threshold of p .001 was taken, and focus was placed on odds-ratios and confidence intervals rather than on significance (Halsey, 2019) with odds-ratios of 1.68 and 3.47 respectively representing small or medium effects (Chen et al., 2010).”
InfluentialNutor, J. J., Thompson, R., Dey, N. E. Y., Alhassan, R. K., & Gyamerah, A. O. (2025) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-025-21500-5 · Cited by 7
“1 [15] and assuming a depression prevalence of 30%, with 150 people, the minimum detectable odds ratio is 3.1, equivalent to an approximately medium effect size [16].”
InfluentialAutonomous Regulation of Social Media Use: Implications for Self-control, Well-Being, and UX
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“1%)— a medium to large effect size [17].”
Digital measures of activity and motivation impact depression and anxiety in the real world
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“To aid in interpretation, unstandardized ORs are reported as effect sizes whereby OR <1.5 and OR > 5 are indicative of small and large effect sizes, respectfully 84 .”
InfluentialPatil, C. L., Norr, K. F., Kapito, E. M., Liu, L. C., Mei, X., Chodzaza, E., Chodzaza, E., Chorwe‐Sungani, G., Kafulafula, U. K., Desloge, A., et al. (2025) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0317171 · Cited by 7
“An odds ratio forest plot using 99% CI for ORs was used to illustrate the effect sizes of Group ANC on all categorical outcomes [103].”
A meta-analysis of the role of neighborhood deprivation in psychotic disorders
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“The results of the power analysis suggest that, with a random-effects model, the current study has a 90% probability of detecting a small effect size (IRR = 1.68 [ 57]) if it exists.”
InfluentialLile, I. E., Hajaj, T., Constantin, G.-D., Niculescu, S. T., Marian, D., Stana, O. L., Zaharia, C., & Veja, I. (2025) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm14165612 · Cited by 7
“Effect size interpretation for odds ratios followed thresholds proposed by Chen et al. [22] (small = 1.68, medium = 3.47, large = 6.71) and used here for illustrative purposes.”
InfluentialMcManus, M. C., Cramer, R. J., Boshier, M., Akpinar‐Elci, M., & Lunen, B. L. V. (2018) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph15010129 · Cited by 7
“Odds ratio interpretation was guided by recommendations in the statistical literature [47]: (1) an odds ratio up to 1.”
MethodCarey, M. P., Rich, C. M., Norris, A. L., Krieger, N. H., Gavarkovs, A. G., Kaplan, C., Guthrie, K. M., & Carey, K. B. (2020) · Archives of Sexual Behavior · doi:10.1007/s10508-020-01635-9 · Cited by 7
“Further, the odds ratio of being a zero was in the large effect size range (Chen, Cohen, & Chen, 2010), indicating that women in the BI condition were less likely to report condomless sex at follow-up compared to women in the control condition.”
BackgroundMamak, K., Dudek, J., Koniewski, M., & Kwiatkowski, D. (2022) · European Journal of Crime Criminal Law and Criminal Justice · doi:10.1163/15718174-bja10030 · Cited by 7
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“Strength of associations was evaluated via resulting odds ratios (OR) for each analysis, which were interpreted via guidelines by Chen et al. (2010) for a high base rate (≥ 10”
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“We measured the ES using odds ratio , 53 which is suitable for our binary results of effectiveness (found or not found).”
MethodInfluentialSheppard, J., Khanizadeh, A., Baldwin, S., & Bennell, C. (2024) · Criminal Justice and Behavior · doi:10.1177/00938548241227551 · Cited by 7
“ORs greater than 1 (i.e., increased odds) are interpreted as “very small” ( < 1.68), small (1.68–3.46), medium (3.47–6.71), or large ( > 6.70; Chen et al., 2010).”
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“Although the effect size of these disparities ranged from small to medium according to well-accepted statistical thresholds (Chen et al., 2010; Lakens, 2013), the functional impact of incoming disparities of this size on sustained disciplinary participation must not be underestimated.”
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“[132] and in fi nity.”
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“Moreover, effect size may not have been the most indicated analysis for the risk of injury associated with a low DS score [33, 36].”
Taib, N. I., & Ahmad, A. (2018) · Acta Paediatrica · doi:10.1111/apa.14530 · Cited by 7
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Eyewitness identification performance is not affected by time-of-day optimality
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How many could have been saved? Effects of social distancing on COVID-19
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“Additionally, for the practice in which the association was not significant (i.e., rehearsal), the odds ratio equated to 4.07 indicating a moderate effect size (Chen et al., 2010), suggesting this null finding may be due in part to the imbalanced sample sizes across the two groups.”
BackgroundInfluentialCalatayud, J., Morera, Á., Ezzatvar, Y., López‐Bueno, R., Andersen, L. L., Cuenca‐Martínez, F., Suso‐Martí, L., Sanchís‐Sánchez, E., López, L., & Casaña, J. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-18539-4 · Cited by 10
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“According to Chen et al. (2010), these likelihoods mostly indicate a small effect.”
BackgroundScutt, K., Walker, I. A., & Ernst, I. (2023) · Preventive Veterinary Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.105855 · Cited by 7
Ssewamala, F. M., Sauceda, J. A., Brathwaite, R., Neilands, T. B., Nabunya, P., Brown, D. S., Bahar, O. S., Namuwonge, F., Nakasujja, N., Mugarura, A., et al. (2023) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-023-15564-4 · Cited by 7
“80, which is between a small and medium effect size [148].”
BackgroundAn Investigation of confusing code patterns in JavaScript
Torres, A., Oliveira, C., Okimoto, M. V., Marcílio, D., Queiroga, P., Castor, F., Bonifácio, R., Canedo, E. D., Ribeiro, M., & Monteiro, E. (2023) · Journal of Systems and Software · doi:10.1016/j.jss.2023.111731 · Cited by 7
Additional Evidence of Predictive Validity of SRSS-IE Scores With Elementary Students
Lane, K. L., Oakes, W. P., Buckman, M. M., Lane, N. A., Lane, N. A., Fleming, K., Romine, R. S., Sherod, R. L., Chang, C., & Cantwell, E. D. (2024) · Behavioral Disorders · doi:10.1177/01987429231222890 · Cited by 7
“We interpret standardized coefficient ( β ) effect sizes values using Chen et al. (2010) and Fey et al. (2023) who indicate that < .30 is small, .30 to .49 is medium, and > .50 is large.”
MethodLucas‐Thompson, R. G., Miller, R. L., Moran, M. J., Rzonca, A. J., Krause, J. T., Montavon, J. K., Johnson, S., Haddock, S. A., Zimmerman, T. S., & Shomaker, L. B. (2024) · Mindfulness · doi:10.1007/s12671-024-02334-5 · Cited by 7
“To estimate these differences, we calculated Cohen’s d (for continuous variables) and odds ratios (for categorical variables); for odds ratios, trivial effects are < 1.68 (Chen et al., 2010).”
InfluentialBestimmung von Teststärke, Effektgröße und optimalem Stichprobenumfang
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Dondanville, K. A., Fina, B. A., Straud, C. L., Finley, E. P., Tyler, H. C., Jacoby, V. M., Blount, T. H., Moring, J. C., Pruiksma, K. E., Blankenship, A. E., et al. (2020) · Community Mental Health Journal · doi:10.1007/s10597-020-00676-7 · Cited by 7
Predicting Infection in Very Preterm Infants
Dail, R. B., Everhart, K. C., Hardin, J. W., Chang, W., Kuehn, D., Iskersky, V., Fisher, K. A., & Murphy, H. J. (2020) · Nursing Research · doi:10.1097/nnr.0000000000000483 · Cited by 7
Deng, J., Hou, W., Dong, X., Hajagos, J., Saltz, M. M., Saltz, J. H., & Wang, F. (2021) · Drugs - Real World Outcomes · doi:10.1007/s40801-021-00253-8 · Cited by 7
Moafa, I., Hoving, C., van den Borne, B. H. P., & Jafer, M. A. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph18147481 · Cited by 7
“99) and strong evidence (OR > = 4) [17,18].”
Minatoya, M., Araki, A., Miyashita, C., Itoh, S., Kobayashi, S., Yamazaki, K., Bamai, Y. A., Saijo, Y., Sato, Y., Ito, Y., et al. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph18137082 · Cited by 7
Ko, H., Ryu, S., Lee, M.-J., Lee, H.-J., Kwon, S.-Y., Kim, S.-M., & Lee, S. M. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph182211811 · Cited by 7
Test-Wiseness and Multiple-Choice Accounting Questions: Implications for Instructors
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Prior trauma exposure, posttraumatic stress symptoms, and COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy
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Svaldi, J., Firnkorn, A. H., Legenbauer, T., von Wietersheim, J., de Zwaan, M., & Tuschen‐Caffier, B. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-59606-7_5 · Cited by 7
Hearing Loss and Depression in Older Adults: A Small Association
Lawrence, B. J., Alexander, E. S., & Jayakody, D. M. P. (2020) · The American Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amjmed.2020.09.007 · Cited by 7
Düplois, D., Brosig, L., Hiemisch, A., Kieß, W., Hilbert, A., Schlensog‐Schuster, F., & Schmidt, R. (2023) · International Journal of Eating Disorders · doi:10.1002/eat.23994 · Cited by 6
Michaelis, S., Gieseke, D., & Knierim, U. (2024) · Poultry Science · doi:10.1016/j.psj.2024.103900 · Cited by 6
“Effect sizes were calculated using odds ratios (function exp(); Hosmer, 2004) and interpreted as odds ratios of 1.5, 2.5 or 4.2 indicating a small, medium or large effect (Chen et al., 2010).”
MethodInfluentialParsons, L., Cordier, R., Chikwava, F., O’Donnell, M., Chung, D., Ferrante, A. M., Mendes, P., & Thoresen, S. (2024) · Child Abuse & Neglect · doi:10.1016/j.chiabu.2024.107053 · Cited by 6
Fu, N. C., Chan, A., Chen, S., Polišenská, K., & Chiat, S. (2024) · Brain and Language · doi:10.1016/j.bandl.2024.105450 · Cited by 6
Self-citationRead, S., Salmela‐Aro, K., Kiuru, N. H., Helenius, J., & Junttila, N. (2024) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0312579 · Cited by 13
“Along with gender differences, declining trends were the most prominent features of the results (small to moderate effect sizes; [64, 65].”
Zhang, L., Gulati, I., MacNeil, A., & Fuller‐Thomson, E. (2024) · Child Abuse & Neglect · doi:10.1016/j.chiabu.2024.107075 · Cited by 6
Bell, T. R., Elman, J. A., Gustavson, D. E., Lyons, M. J., Fennema‐Notestine, C., Williams, M. E., Panizzon, M. S., Pearce, R. C., Reynolds, C. A., Sanderson‐Cimino, M. E., et al. (2025) · Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society · doi:10.1017/s1355617725101057 · Cited by 6
“These can be interpreted in terms of effect sizes (small effect ∼ .80 or 1.20; moderate effect ∼ .67 or 1.50; large effect ∼ .50 or 2.00) (Chen et al., 2010).”
InfluentialLarrateguy, S., Otto‐Yáñez, M., Bogado, J., Larrateguy, L., Barros-Poblete, M., Mazzucco, G. A., Blanco, I., Gimeno‐Santos, E., & Torres‐Castro, R. (2025) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm14145049 · Cited by 6
“The effect size was categorized as small, moderate, and large, with Cohen’s d values < 0.2, between 0.2 and 0.5, and >0.8, respectively [30].”
InfluentialSkumlien, M., Jones, D., Mokrysz, C., Lees, R., Petrilli, K., Ofori, S., Lawn, W., Curran, H. V., & Freeman, T. P. (2025) · Communications Medicine · doi:10.1038/s43856-025-01018-y · Cited by 6
“With 232 participants and a Bonferroni-corrected alpha-level of 0.05, we had 83.7% power to detect a small-to-medium effect size of OR = 2.575 42 for each predictor.”
InfluentialAssociations Between Oral Microbiota Pathogens and Elevated Depressive and Anxiety Symptoms in Men
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“Notably, S. anginosus had an OR of 3.39 with q < 0.05 (Table 3; Supporting Information Figure S8), approximately equivalent to Cohen ’ s d = 0.5 (i.e., a medium effect size) [49].”
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“…research (Table 1) revealed that the present results pertaining to Block Design and Visual Puzzles had stronger effect sizes than those reported previously (odds ratio values and Pearson Correlation values were converted to Cohen’s d values using the calculation described by Chen et al. (2010).”
MethodParental practices and their association with alcohol and cannabis use among adolescents in Chile
Libuy, N., Viviana Guajardo, T., Ibáñez, C. F., Araneda, A. M., Taibo, L. C., Donoso, P., Gaete, J., & Mundt, A. P. (2023) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1209584 · Cited by 6
“The odds ratios reported in this study had small to medium effect sizes (Chen et al., 2010).”
BackgroundIt’s Not Where You Start, It’s How You Finish: Predicting Law School and Bar Success
Taylor, A. N., Scott, J. M., & Jackson, J. L. M. (2021) · Journal of Higher Education Theory and Practice · doi:10.33423/jhetp.v21i10.4629 · Cited by 6
Religion und Sozialkapital in der Schweiz
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Loukas, A., Li, X., Wilkinson, A. V., & Marti, C. N. (2023) · Prevention Science · doi:10.1007/s11121-023-01572-8 · Cited by 6
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Inferring COVID-19 testing and vaccination behavior from New Jersey testing data
Freedman, A. S., Sheen, J. K., Tsai, S., Yao, J., Lifshitz, E. I., Adinaro, D., Levin, S. A., Grenfell, B. T., & Metcalf, C. J. E. (2024) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2314357121 · Cited by 6
Metadata
- Authors
- Chen, H., Cohen, P., & Chen, S.
- Affiliations
- Winthrop-University Hospital (US)
- New York State Psychiatric Institute (US)
- Health Canada (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Chen, Henian
- Venue
- Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2010-03-31
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 860-864
- ISSN
- 0361-0918 (ISSN-L)
- 1532-4141
- OpenAlex
- W2029059557
- Cited by
- 1,952
- References
- 20
- Citations by year
- 2026: 170 · 2025: 201 · 2024: 259 · 2023: 234 · 2022: 254 · 2021: 242 · 2020: 196 · 2019: 123 · 2018: 93 · 2017: 65 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 5.45
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Keywords
- odds ratio, effect size interpretation, Cohen's d, standardized mean difference, disease incidence
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