The DOI matches its Crossref record; 46 of the 48 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?
Open accessAbstract
Less than 30 years after Fukuyama and others declared liberal democracy’s eternal dominance, a third wave of autocratization is manifest. Gradual declines of democratic regime attributes characterize contemporary autocratization. Yet, we lack the appropriate conceptual and empirical tools to diagnose and compare such elusive processes. Addressing that gap, this article provides the first comprehensive empirical overview of all autocratization episodes from 1900 to today based on data from the Varieties of Democracy Project (V-Dem). We demonstrate that a third wave of autocratization is indeed unfolding. It mainly affects democracies with gradual setbacks under a legal façade. While this is a cause for concern, the historical perspective presented in this article shows that panic is not warranted: the current declines are relatively mild and the global share of democratic countries remains close to its all-time high. As it was premature to announce the “end of history” in 1992, it is premature to proclaim the “end of democracy” now.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“The world is now in a ' third wave of autocratization, ' disproportionally affecting a large number of established democracies (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”
From Parties, Civil Society, and the Deterrence of Democratic Defection (2020) · cites this paper as Lührmann and Lindberg 2019
Citations
Cites
The third wave: democratization in the late twentieth century
(1992) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.29-4135 · Cited by 7,981
The End of History and the Last Man
Fukuyama, F. (1992) · Cited by 7,535
Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition.
Ericson, J., & Dahl, R. A. (1972) · American Quarterly · doi:10.2307/2711442 · Cited by 7,179
The End of History and the Last Man.
Fritzsche, P. A., & Fukuyama, F. (1992) · The American Historical Review · doi:10.2307/2164782 · Cited by 6,551
Physica, A., Rohlf, T., & Bornholdt, S. (1990) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.27-2963 · Cited by 3,601
Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War
Levitsky, S., & Way, L. A. (2010) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511781353 · Cited by 3,459
(1962) · Columbia University Press eBooks · doi:10.7312/grau91070-013 · Cited by 3,328
Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990
Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M. E., Cheibub, J. A., & Limongi, F. (2000) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511804946 · Cited by 2,845
The end of the transition paradigm
Carothers, T. (2002) · Journal of Democracy · doi:10.1353/jod.2002.0003 · Cited by 2,700
The Politics of Authoritarian Rule
Svolik, M. W. (2012) · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139176040 · Cited by 2,611
Research works printed but not linked: 11
- Freedom House, 2008, Freedom in the World
- Freedom House, 2008, Freedom in the World
- Coppedge M., 2018, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project
- Coppedge M., 2018, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute
- Dahl R. A., 1998, On Democracy
- Diamond L., 2008, Foreign Affairs, 87, 36
- Erdmann G., 2011, Comparative Governance and Politics, 1, 21
- Lentz H. M., 1999, Encyclopedia of Heads of States and Governnments, 1900 Through 1945
- Norris P., 2017, Journal of Democracy (Online Exchange)
- Runciman D., 2018, How Democracy Ends
- 10.1111/1475-6765.12244 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 901–1,000 of 1,000
Demokratian ja valtion kytkös – katsaus tutkimussuuntauksiin
Hakovirta, A. (2020) · Politiikka · doi:10.37452/politiikka.95748
Illiberalism: A Primer and Call to Action for Social Workers
Jones, L. P., & Engstrom, D. W. (2020) · The Journal of Sociology & Social Welfare · doi:10.15453/0191-5096.4337
Telias, D. (2020) · Relaciones Internacionales · doi:10.15359/ri.93-2.5
SECOND - TERM SYNDROME: AN IMPEDIMENT OR A CATALYST FOR AFRICAN DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE?
Adeoye, J. O. (2020) · SAPIENTIA GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ARTS, HUMANITIES AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES
Haughton, T., & Deegan‐Krause, K. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198812920.003.0005
Schimmelfennig, F., Winzen, T., Lenz, T., Rocabert, J., Crasnic, L., Gherasimov, C., Lipps, J., & Mumford, D. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198864974.003.0015
Neither Older nor Wiser? What Continual Party Change Means for the Quality of Democracy
Haughton, T., & Deegan‐Krause, K. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198812920.003.0008
Introduction to the case studies
Schimmelfennig, F., Winzen, T., Lenz, T., Rocabert, J., Crasnic, L., Gherasimov, C., Lipps, J., & Mumford, D. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198864974.003.0005
The emergence of international parliamentary institutions
Schimmelfennig, F., Winzen, T., Lenz, T., Rocabert, J., Crasnic, L., Gherasimov, C., Lipps, J., & Mumford, D. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198864974.003.0004
Comparative case study analysis
Schimmelfennig, F., Winzen, T., Lenz, T., Rocabert, J., Crasnic, L., Gherasimov, C., Lipps, J., & Mumford, D. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198864974.003.0016
What’s New? How to Refine our Assessments of Party Novelty
Haughton, T., & Deegan‐Krause, K. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198812920.003.0002
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Schimmelfennig, F., Winzen, T., Lenz, T., Rocabert, J., Crasnic, L., Gherasimov, C., Lipps, J., & Mumford, D. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198864974.003.0014
Haughton, T., & Deegan‐Krause, K. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198812920.003.0003
Joński, K. (2021) · Asian Journal of Law and Economics · doi:10.1515/ajle-2020-0073
Haughton, T., & Deegan‐Krause, K. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198812920.003.0006
Haughton, T., & Deegan‐Krause, K. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198812920.003.0001
Slovenia Is Everywhere? How New Party Subsystems and Cycles Extend Worldwide
Haughton, T., & Deegan‐Krause, K. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198812920.003.0007
The Commonwealth of Independent States and the Eurasian Economic Union
Schimmelfennig, F., Winzen, T., Lenz, T., Rocabert, J., Crasnic, L., Gherasimov, C., Lipps, J., & Mumford, D. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198864974.003.0008
Rothstein, B. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192894908.003.0003
Rothstein, B. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192894908.003.0005
The Motivations Behind Authoritarian Image Management
Dukalskis, A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197520130.003.0002
Mechanisms of Authoritarian Image Management
Dukalskis, A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197520130.003.0003 · Cited by 1
Projecting Peace and Prosperity
Dukalskis, A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197520130.003.0007
Selling Dictatorship and Silencing Dissent
Dukalskis, A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197520130.003.0004
Defining Characteristics of Democracy in the 21st Century
Lenhardt, A. (2021) · doi:10.19088/k4d.2021.064
Coping with a Post-Communist World
Dukalskis, A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197520130.003.0008
Dukalskis, A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197520130.003.0001
Dukalskis, A. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197520130.003.0009
Political practices of transformation of East and Southeast Asia countries
Тесленко, С. С. (2021) · Актуальні проблеми політики · doi:10.32837/app.v0i67.1162
Varieties of Arbitrary Governance
Tapscott, R. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198856474.003.0007
Arbitrary Governance and Modern Authoritarianism
Tapscott, R. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198856474.003.0002
Violence, Governance, and Uncertainty
Tapscott, R. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198856474.003.0001
Are democratic backsliding and staying out of the Eurozone interconnected? 1
Arató, K., & Benedek, I. (2021) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780429261411-4
Tapscott, R. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198856474.003.0006
Tapscott, R. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198856474.003.0005
Violence, Sovereignty, and the Uganda Police Force
Tapscott, R. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198856474.003.0004
Teslenko, S. (2021) · Visnyk of the Lviv University · doi:10.30970/pps.2021.35.28
Democratic backsliding and populism: paths for a more productive connection
Ferrari, A. L. R. F. (2021) · Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations (Universidade de São Paulo) · doi:10.11606/d.8.2021.tde-23082021-111619
2. Conceptualizing Decentralization and the History of Statehood in the Middle East and North Africa
Sturm, R., & Demmelhuber, T. (2021) · Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG eBooks · doi:10.5771/9783748920731-25
Kwon, S., & Park, S. (2021) · Journal of Social Science · doi:10.16881/jss.2021.10.32.4.239
Gravitational pull of authoritarian China in South Asia?
Lagerkvist, J. (2021) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003042211-35
“The worldwide turn towards authoritarianism has been conceptualized and studied as autocratization (L ü hrmann and Lindberg 2019; Skaaning 2020) and “democratic back-sliding”, (Bermeo 2016).”
(2021) · Advances in public policy and administration (APPA) book series · doi:10.4018/978-1-7998-7614-4.ch004
Autocratization and religious minorities in Pakistan
Salīm, A., & Saeed, R. (2021) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003042211-19
Contemporary Populist Representation and Its Implications for Democracy
Drávucz, R. R. (2021) · Advances in public policy and administration (APPA) book series · doi:10.4018/978-1-7998-8057-8.ch003
Autocratization and regime convergence in South Asia – An undetermined path
Widmalm, S. (2021) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003042211-34
“The gains in democratic performance seen not long ago have ceased or have even started to become undone by recent developments as South Asia joined the ‘third wave of autocratization’ (L ü hrmann and Lindberg 2019).”
The Copenhagen Criteria and the Road to the Balkan Region
Costa, B. F., & Figueira, P. (2021) · Advances in public policy and administration (APPA) book series · doi:10.4018/978-1-7998-9055-3.ch001
The decline of democratic governance
Feldman, S. (2021) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003042211-23
“Like other political scientists, they highlight the economic and institutional correlates of a process of democratic decline across world communities (Luhrmann et al. 2018, 2019; Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Cassani and Tomini 2020).”
Diversity of European Societies: Regimes, Freedoms, Rights, and the Rule of Law
Anđjelić, N. (2022) · European Union and its neighbours in a globalized world · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-91073-0_2
Cano, E. D., & Tardivo, G. (2022) · Anduli · doi:10.12795/anduli.2022.i21.11
En el nombre del pueblo: consolidación autocrática subnacional en Cuba
Guach, H. C. (2022) · Revista de Estudios Sociales · doi:10.7440/res79.2022.02
Calling in "Sick": COVID-19, Opportunism, Pretext, and Subnational DemocracyPreprint
Stenberg, M., Rocco, P., & Farole, S. A. (2021) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/6wvg7
Rothstein, B. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192894908.003.0004
Benedek, I. (2021) · Themis Az ELTE Állam- és Jogtudományi Kar doktori iskoláinak elektronikus folyóirata · doi:10.55052/themis.2021.2.97-152 · Cited by 1
Venezuela, Oil and Climate Change: Overcoming Nostalgia
Betancourt, C. M. C., & Scarpellini, M. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-57281-5_242 · Cited by 1
Contemporary Challenges to Democracy
(2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108779104.025
Weinberg, A. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108774871.002
Wprowadzenie do zagadnienia posłuszeństwa konstytucyjnego
Gasz, S., & Kaczmarczyk, M. P. (2022) · Archiwum Filozofii Prawa i Filozofii Społecznej · doi:10.36280/afpifs.2022.1.17
Lambach, D., Bayer, M., Bethke, F. S., Dressler, M., & Dudouet, V. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-39371-7_6
Schimmelfennig, F., Winzen, T., Lenz, T., Rocabert, J., Crasnic, L., Gherasimov, C., Lipps, J., & Mumford, D. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198864974.003.0010
Schimmelfennig, F., Winzen, T., Lenz, T., Rocabert, J., Crasnic, L., Gherasimov, C., Lipps, J., & Mumford, D. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198864974.003.0006
Schimmelfennig, F., Winzen, T., Lenz, T., Rocabert, J., Crasnic, L., Gherasimov, C., Lipps, J., & Mumford, D. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198864974.003.0001
Europäische Gesellschaften zwischen Kohäsion und Spaltung
Baier, F., Borrmann, S., Hefel, J., Thiessen, B., & Budrich, V. B. (2022) · Verlag Barbara Budrich eBooks · doi:10.3224/84742613
The Third Wave of Autocratisation and the Western Balkans
Markovich, S. G. (2022) · Politički život časopis za analizu politike · doi:10.18485/fpn_pz.2022.22.1
How Does Political Polarization Erode Democracy?
Washida, H. (2021) · The Annuals of Japanese Political Science Association · doi:10.7218/nenpouseijigaku.72.1_81 · Cited by 1
Conclusion: Consequences on Regime Change
Musil, P. A. (2022) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-06293-3_5
Waldner, N. (2022) · Soziologiemagazin · doi:10.3224/soz.v15i1.05
Jeziorska, I. (2022) · CUB Ph.D. Dissertations (Corvinus University of Budapest) · doi:10.14267/phd.2022048
Stärkung der Demokratien durch eine breitere Beteiligung?
Sebály, B. (2022) · Sozial Extra · doi:10.1007/s12054-022-00508-w
(2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197598757.002.0005
Masoud, T. E., & Mainwaring, S. P. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197598757.003.0001
(2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197598757.002.0006
(2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197598757.002.0003
(2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197598757.002.0009
Kokkonen, A., Möller, J., & Sundell, A. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192897510.003.0003
Kokkonen, A., Möller, J., & Sundell, A. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192897510.003.0002
Kokkonen, A., Möller, J., & Sundell, A. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192897510.003.0001
Kokkonen, A., Möller, J., & Sundell, A. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192897510.003.0006
Civil War and International War
Kokkonen, A., Möller, J., & Sundell, A. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192897510.003.0005
Kokkonen, A., Möller, J., & Sundell, A. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192897510.003.0010
Kokkonen, A., Möller, J., & Sundell, A. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192897510.003.0008
The Politics of Succession in Comparative Perspective
Kokkonen, A., Möller, J., & Sundell, A. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192897510.003.0009
Wissenschaftsfreiheit weltweit und internationale akademische Mobilität in Deutschland
Pelke, L., Spannagel, J., & Kinzelbach, K. (2022) · doi:10.46685/daadstudien.2022.11
The Development of Parliaments
Kokkonen, A., Møller, J. Ø., & Sundell, A. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192897510.003.0007
The Origins and Spread of Primogeniture
Kokkonen, A., Möller, J., & Sundell, A. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192897510.003.0004
Roháč, D. (2022) · Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · doi:10.4337/9781802208733.00012
Holm, M., & Deese, R. S. (2022) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003218586
Representation and Participation of Citizens at the United Nations
Bummel, A. (2022) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003218586-13
Metadata
- Authors
- Lührmann, A., & Lindberg, S. I.
- Affiliations
- University of Gothenburg (SE)
- Corresponding author
- Lührmann, Anna
- Venue
- Democratization
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2019-03-01
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 1095-1113
- ISSN
- 1351-0347 (ISSN-L)
- 1743-890X
- OpenAlex
- W2919826889
- Cited by
- 1,528
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 273 · 2025: 290 · 2024: 229 · 2023: 206 · 2022: 179 · 2021: 187 · 2020: 133 · 2019: 31
- FWCI
- 266.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Democratization (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- European Research Council (72419)
- Vetenskapsrådet (2018-016114)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Keywords
- autocratization, democratic backsliding, liberal democracy, end of history, end of democracy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
