Cited by 1,528Political Conflict and GovernancePolitical Theory and DemocracyElectoral Systems and Political Participation

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A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?

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Lührmann, Anna, Lindberg, Staffan I.·2019·Democratization

DOI 10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029

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Abstract

Less than 30 years after Fukuyama and others declared liberal democracy’s eternal dominance, a third wave of autocratization is manifest. Gradual declines of democratic regime attributes characterize contemporary autocratization. Yet, we lack the appropriate conceptual and empirical tools to diagnose and compare such elusive processes. Addressing that gap, this article provides the first comprehensive empirical overview of all autocratization episodes from 1900 to today based on data from the Varieties of Democracy Project (V-Dem). We demonstrate that a third wave of autocratization is indeed unfolding. It mainly affects democracies with gradual setbacks under a legal façade. While this is a cause for concern, the historical perspective presented in this article shows that panic is not warranted: the current declines are relatively mild and the global share of democratic countries remains close to its all-time high. As it was premature to announce the “end of history” in 1992, it is premature to proclaim the “end of democracy” now.

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InfluentialSelf-citation
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“Dissatisfaction among citizens with how socioeconomic and political decisions are made by the class of elites, and the deteriorating connection between political representatives and their electorates have become evident in both established and developing democracies (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”
Background
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“In which, autocrats will avoid brutal measures and change democracy, but will choose more subtle ways and gradually erode the functioning of democratic institutions (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”
BackgroundInfluential
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“As Luhrmann and Lindberg (2021) extensively show, this new wave significantly differs from the previous ones 12 Though I do not attempt to claim that it is the only one.”
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Authors: Lührmann, A., & Lindberg, S. I.
Affiliations: University of Gothenburg (SE)
Corresponding author: Lührmann, Anna
ORCID: Lührmann, Anna
Lindberg, Staffan I.
Venue: Democratization
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Published: 2019-03-01
Volume: 26
Issue: 7
Pages: 1095-1113
ISSN: 1351-0347 (ISSN-L)
1743-890X
DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029
OpenAlex: W2919826889
Cited by: 1,528
References: 48
Citations by year: 2026: 273 · 2025: 290 · 2024: 229 · 2023: 206 · 2022: 179 · 2021: 187 · 2020: 133 · 2019: 31
FWCI: 266.63
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Democratization (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Funders: European Research Council (72419)
Vetenskapsrådet (2018-016114)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
Keywords: autocratization, democratic backsliding, liberal democracy, end of history, end of democracy

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A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?

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