A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?

“Autocracies, defined as political regimes characterized by the exclusive rule of one person or a group without free and competitive elections, have seen a global surge in what scholars term the third wave of autocratization (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”

“The regression of democracies around the globe has worried observers everywhere [32].”

“As Lu¨hrmann and Lindberg [60] suggested, the world is experiencing a “third wave” of autocratization.”

“While most countries have varying degrees of democratic regimes, many experienced a reduction in democratic qualities during this time period [15].”

“To our credit, the tide has turned from democracy’s fourth wave (Howard and Hussain 2013) to an autocratic undercurrent (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Varieties of Democracy 2019) where countries have objectively enjoyed fewer freedoms and more restricted media environments over the past decade…”

“This dialectic is a major cause of what is widely discussed as the autocratic-authoritarian turn (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019), which is, however, commonly attributed to the logic of capitalism, right-wing populism, or globalization.”

“At the same time, the results presented in this study tie in with the ongoing debate on democratic backsliding (Levitsky and Ziblatt, 2018; Waldner and Lust, 2018; Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019; Bakke and Sitter, 2020).”

“Finally, scholars have debated on whether an outright new wave of autocratization has started (Luehrmann and Lindberg, 2019; Skaaning, 2020), which is the question that the findings presented in the previous section may help address.”

“…and cultural shifts have substantially impaired the earlier confidence in participative and deliberative democracy (e.g., Shearman and Smith 2007; Brennan 2016); the postdemocratic and the autocratic-authoritarian turn are being widely debated (L€uhrmann and Lindberg 2019; Bl€uhdorn 2020b).”

“…of Russia’s political dynamics may be of great theoretical importance for projecting the perspectives of those political regimes that are currently in the process of ‘autocratization’, commonly understood as the ‘decline of democratic regime attributes’ (Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019: 1095).”

“In a world undergoing ‘democratic backsliding’ (e.g. Bermeo, 2016; Diamond, 2008; Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019; Lührmann and Rooney, 2021; Mechkova et al., 2017), Ukraine, in the three years leading up to the 2022 full-scale invasion, stood out as a leading democratizer (Boese et al., 2022).”

“…decade, democratically-elected executives with ambitions to enhance their power have undermined institutions vital for protecting democratic rights such as freedom of association and expression while leaving competitive electoral institutions intact (Ding & Slater, 2021; Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”

“This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the intricate processes of contemporary autocratization, often described as the “third wave of autocratization” (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”

“But today, the recession of democracy (Diamond 2015), the autocratic-authoritarian turn that is reshaping liberal-democratic polities (L € uhrmann and Lindberg 2019; Bl € uhdorn 2022b), and the new international competition of liberal and autocratic systems have shifted the open society back into…”

“Half of the world’s countries qualified in 2017 as either liberal or electoral democracies while electoral autocracies were the most common form of dictatorship (Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019: 1097).”

“This resonates with research on the third wave of autocratization which describes the process of creeping authoritarianism as a gradual decline of democratic regime attributes under a legal fac¸ade (Lu¨hrmann & Lindberg, 2019).”

“3 Autocratization is used as synonym of democratic decline, i.e., “deterioration of qualities associated with democratic governance” (Waldner and Lust 2018, 95), that can take place within different regimes with at least somewhat democratic institutions (e.g., Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”

“At the most aggregate level, the figure shows that takeovers are a special form of ‘autocratization’, which itself is a general form of regression away from liberal democracy (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”

“For instance, V-Dem has highlighted a “third wave of autocratization” (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”

“This pattern is more reminiscent of democratic breakdown as described by an older literature (Linz 1978) than of the typical pattern of democratic backsliding during the so-called ‘ third wave of autocratiza-tion ’ (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”

“In the current global landscape, economic inequality has become a critical issue (Chan-cel and Piketty, 2021; Piketty, 2014), coinciding with a third wave of autocratization that signals a global decline in democracy (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”

“Since the end of the Cold War and the 9/11 attack, there has been a debate whether we are going to observe the fourth wave of democratization, stalemate, or even backsliding and autocratization (e.g. Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Maerz, Lührmann, Hellmeier, Grahn, and Lindberg 2020).”

“A number of authors (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Cassani and Tomini 2020; Bermeo 2016; Dresden and Howard 2016) tend to consider such processes the result of the action of either the incumbent or the state.”

“…by civil society organizations are among the most threatened democratic attributes in the “third wave of autocratization” (Hellmeier et al., 2021; Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019) and thus constitute other ways in which citizens are hindered from being fully included in the political process.”

“…and big data with capabilities of surveillance and control might make it much more dif fi cult than today for civic accountability and democratization movements to challenge autocratic governments, potentially introducing a new wave of autocratization (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019; Snyder, 2018).”

“The first group of studies assesses the autocratization of Turkey as reflective of the wave of autocratization that has dominated since 2017 (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Hellmeier et al. 2021).”

“Luhrmann and Lindberg (2019) designated the term “ autocratization ” to denote a decline of democratic qualities (i.e., essentially democratization in reverse), which can be applied to any country, regardless of regime type.”

“However, this is no longer the dominant trend (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”

“Significantly, it is not only that autocrats are eradicating democratic practices to attain and retain power, but that they use the very democratic institutions they seek to deteriorate, which characterizes what Lührmann and Lindberg (2019) refer to as “third wave autocratization.””

“The ongoing third wave of autocratization, which signals a decline in democratic institutions (Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019), further underscores the urgency to explore the potential links between rising wealth inequality and the erosion of democratic structures.”

“Some scholars describe this phenomenon as democratic backsliding (Bermeo 2016; Waldner and Lust 2018), democratic regression (Gerschewski 2021), or democratic erosion (Kneuer 2021; Lührmann and Lindberg 2019), each referring to the degradation of previously democratic regimes.”

“It has given way to a new pessimistic consensus centred on the erosion of constitutional essentials and democratic rights in new and old democracies alike (Freedom House, 2019b; Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019; Lührmann, Grahn, Morgan, Pillai, & Lindberg, 2019; Öniş & Kutlay, 2019).”

“The far right puts Europe at risk of autocratization; once started, this process almost always leads to autocracies (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”

“…influence of China, autocratic governance spread in many parts of the world, especially in Central Asia (Costa Buranelli, 2020), but also, through right-wing populism, in the former Western liberal heartland, including the US (Stengel et al., 2019; Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019; Mudde, 2004).”

“While 40 years ago the most common method of autocratization was elite-led interventions such as military coups, now elections have become a tool for gradually establishing autocratic regimes (Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019).”

“Research into the various drivers, modalities, and outcomes of this third global anti-democratic wave is already under way (Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019).”

“In contrast, Lührmann and Lindberg employ the notion of autocratization to describe a process that can occur in democracies and autocracies alike (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019: 1099).”

“This variable controls for the diffusion effects of democratization (e.g., Brinks and Coppedge 2006) and autocratization (e.g., Lührmann and Lindberg 2019) from Note : Lines show the predicted levels of electoral democracy with 95% con fi dence intervals.”

“Democratic backsliding, once characterized by sudden events like military coups, has evolved over time (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”

“From this point of view, the third wave of autocratization unfolds more clandestinely and incrementally than its historical precedents and tends to operate under a legal disguise that makes it quite problematic to pinpoint the onset (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019, 1098; Somer et al. 2021, 2).”

“…described as an indication of the instability of the “third wave” of democratization (Haggard and Kaufman 2016), a gauge of democratic deconsolidation and the rise “strong leaders” (Foa and Mounk 2017; Foa 2021; Quinlan and Tinney 2019), or a sign of “autocratization” (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”

“…in importance in the face of today’s societal tendencies, such as youth and children’s climate activism (Fridays for Future), hate crimes (Rauta, 2017), racism and racialization (FRA, 2017), the questioning of international organizations, and the rise of autocratization (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”

“…contemporary Turkey, a paradigmatic case for a large number of regimes that have experienced democratic backsliding/autocratization (Bermeo, 2016; Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019; Waldner & Lust, 2018) brings into the light how different modalities of power and rationalities of governing operate in…”