A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?

“Migration policies continue to present empirical and normative challenges to some sectors of the public (see e.g. Gamlen 2015), especially in times of autocratization and cultural backlash (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Norris and Inglehart 2019).”

“The relationship between democracy and opposition has become of increasing importance in the recent wave of authoritarianism (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019), which suggests that opposition forces have not been able to place sufficient controls over government abuses of power.”

“However, little if any scholarly attention is dedicated to investigating the dynamics of archival activism in a time of increasing autocratisation, which is defined as ‘a substantial de-facto decline of core institutional requirements for electoral democracy’ (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019, 1096).”

“Turkey has in the last decade become a prominent case of the global trend of democratic backsliding (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”

“Finally, Oross and Tap (2023) turn to a country that has been characterized by democratic backsliding since around 2010 during the Orban government (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Applebaum 2020; Krastev and Holmes 2020).”

“As the literature emphasises, transitions from democracy to authoritarianism seldom occur through coups d'état or military interventions but rather by the slow erosion of democratic rules (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”

“This choice is in line with recent empirical work on regime instability (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019) as well as for data coverage as indicators in the V-Dem V.10 dataset have extensive temporal coverage for most nations in the world.”

“2 The figure relies on data collected and coded by Lührmann and Lindberg (2019).”

“As Lührmann and Lindberg (2019) posit, the world seems to be immersed in a third wave of autocratization, driven not by regime changes but rather by generalized and subtle forms of democratic recession (see also V-Dem, 2021).”

“Democratization ’ s opposite, autocratization – the process of political regime transformation toward autocracy and away from democracy (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Cassani and Tomini 2020; Møller and Skaaning 2023; Croissant and Tomini 2024) – is today predominant in various continents.”

“Following Lührmann and Lindberg (2019), I also perform several robustness checks and parallel tests (available from the author) using the Electoral Democracy Index (EDI) from V-Dem.”

“Autocratisation today tends to be incremental rather than sudden, leading troubled democracies to erode rather than to shatter (Bermeo 2016; Waldner and Lust 2018; Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Haggard and Kaufman 2021).”

“Since the late 1990s, the third wave of democratisation has given way to the third wave of autocratisation (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Diamond 2021).”

“What is worse, while the last decades of the 20th century witnessed an unprecedented success in spreading democracy due to the so-called ‘third wave of democratization’, we have now entered a new era of global democratic decline, or the ‘third wave of autocratization’ (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”

“It should be added that since about 2005, however, in many parts of the world, Africa in particular, many of the gains that had been made on the scale of democratisation since 1990, have been reversed since about 2005 (See Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”

“Following Lührmann and Lindberg (2019) we adopt the term ‘autocratization’ as an overarching concept that denotes ‘any move from full democracy’ to denote developments in Turkey.”

“Breakdowns correspond to radical changes in regime type replacing democracy with autocracy, normally through a coup d’état interrupting a constitutionally guaranteed executive mandate Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019; Linz and Stepan, 1978).”

“Contemporary political science lays so much emphasis on the identification of causal factors in experimental research designs (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”

“…appeals to democratic values and principles to mobilize popular support when, in fact, it advances autocratization — or political change weakening democratic procedures and institutions (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019, pp. 1098 – 1100; Maerz et al., 2023, pp. 4 – 6; Tomini et al., 2023, pp. 120 – 121).”

“Although, most scholars seem to agree that the process of democratic backsliding occurs gradually and mostly under some form of legal disguise (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019, 1095).”

“Meanwhile, a ‘third wave of autocra-tization’ (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019) has compelled billions of people to live under non-democratic regimes worldwide.”

“The tide has changed since the post-Cold War era that celebrated “the end of his-tory” (Fukuyama, 1989) amid a new and global wave of autocratization (Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019; Skaaning, 2020; Tomini, 2021).”

“…the quality of democracy declined (Tomsa and Bax, 2023) starting in 2006; many referred to it as the ‘ democratic recession ’ (Battison, 2011; Diamond, 2008, 2014; Puddington, 2009) or the ‘ third wave of autocratization ’ (Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019) following the ‘ third wave of democratization.”

“‘Autocratization’ (Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019) is the umbrella term that includes all moves away from democracy taking place in democracies and non-democracies, and can include regime erosion as well as regime change outcomes.”

“At other times, the capture of Courts has been identi fi ed as an essential element of the rise – and stabilisation – of executive power, with monocratic leaders using their powers to weaken liberal democratic orders and reduce judicial autonomy (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019; Llanos & Tibi Weber, 2022).”

“In many states all over the world, we observe currently the process of autocratisation (Kneuer & Demmelhuber, 2020; Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019), understood as a gradual change of the political regime towards a non-democratic one, depending on executive limitations as well as participation and…”

“It is widely argued that democracy is in crisis (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”

“…in the middle of the spectrum between liberal democracy and non-democracy, as it has important characteristics of both authoritarianism and democracy (Bogaards 2009; Cassani 2014; Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Levitsky and Way 2020; on illiberal democracies of Southeast Europe, see Kapidžić 2020).”

“Democratically elected leaders who use crises as a pre-text for self-coups – the most common source of democratic breakdown in recent decades (Lu¨hrmann & Lindberg, 2019; Svolik, 2019) – is one example.”

“…on the relationship between the host country’s political regime type and inward FDI produces contradictory results mainly to the zenith of confusion in current regime classifications and the lack of a systematic way of measuring the new mode of autocratization (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019, p. 1097).”

“Political parties play an important role in this process by either ameliorating or mitigating the polarisation (Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019).”

“15 The adaptation of decision-making procedures is a survival strategy with which rulers react to a shifting environment to prevent a crisis.”

“Indeed, the suppression of these NGOs constitutes an important expression of democratic backsliding (Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019: 1098).”

“However, these insights have not yet been fully applied to the post-2010s “third wave of autocratization” (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019), in which leaders come to power through the very democratic institutions they seek to weaken (Bermeo, 2016).”

“We argue that averted regressions, while undoubtedly being a ‘substantial de-facto decline of core institutional requirements for electoral democracy’ (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019, p. 1096), are also an indicator of a particular type of resilience performance, namely bounce-back.”

“The new global wave of autocratization, which has not spared Europe (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019), along with the ‘ dis fi - gured ’ face of liberal representative democracies (Urbinati, 2014), calls for further investigation into how European countries perform in terms of bud-getary policy.”

“This normative power associated with democracy is a big reason illiberal leaders prefer hybrid regimes to full-fledged autocracy (Mechkova, Luhrmann, and Lindberg 2017, 168; Luhrmann and Lindberg 2019).”

“The worldwide third wave of autocratisation (Lührman and Lindberg 2019) has made relations between the democratic and non-democratic states another salient dimension of foreign politics.”

“Since the late 1990s, the third wave of democratization has given way to the third wave of autocratization (Diamond, 2021; Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”

“The optimism that came with the Third Wave of democratization that started in the 1970s (Huntington, 1993) has eroded as there has been a rise in the number of electoral autocracies, which do not have a level electoral playing field (L € uhrmann and Lindberg, 2019).”