Cited by 1,528Political Conflict and GovernancePolitical Theory and DemocracyElectoral Systems and Political Participation

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A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?

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Lührmann, Anna, Lindberg, Staffan I.·2019·Democratization

DOI 10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029

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Abstract

Less than 30 years after Fukuyama and others declared liberal democracy’s eternal dominance, a third wave of autocratization is manifest. Gradual declines of democratic regime attributes characterize contemporary autocratization. Yet, we lack the appropriate conceptual and empirical tools to diagnose and compare such elusive processes. Addressing that gap, this article provides the first comprehensive empirical overview of all autocratization episodes from 1900 to today based on data from the Varieties of Democracy Project (V-Dem). We demonstrate that a third wave of autocratization is indeed unfolding. It mainly affects democracies with gradual setbacks under a legal façade. While this is a cause for concern, the historical perspective presented in this article shows that panic is not warranted: the current declines are relatively mild and the global share of democratic countries remains close to its all-time high. As it was premature to announce the “end of history” in 1992, it is premature to proclaim the “end of democracy” now.

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Thompson, M. R., & Agojo, K. N. M. (2024) · Journal of East Asian Studies · doi:10.1017/jea.2024.6 · Cited by 2
“…comparisons to discern general patterns in this form of autocratization undertaken by “ democratically elected leaders [who] weaken democratic institutions ” (Haggard and Kaufman 2021, 2; see also Bermeo 2016; Levitsky and Ziblatt 2018; Waldner and Lust 2018; Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”
Motivations for paying regard to children’s right in relation to democracy and education: An analysis of Swedish and Italian policy investigations
Montà, C. C., Bianchi, D., Edling, S., & Biffi, E. (2025) · European Educational Research Journal · doi:10.1177/14749041251314098 · Cited by 2
“…camps appear to increase in strength throughout the world (Edling and Macrine, 2021), which can be seen as one reason to world-wide decrease of [broad] democracy and various human rights associated with democracy (Haggard and Kaufman, 2021; Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019; Lührmann et al., 2018).”
Turkey’s Rising Tide of Dissent: Charting the Wave of Non-Legal Strikes in the Mid-2010s
Birelma, A. (2025) · Critical Sociology · doi:10.1177/08969205241310854 · Cited by 2
“The two discussions explored in this review, the relevance of working-class agency and the democracy–strike nexus, are interconnected, a linkage that is relevant to the debates on the current global wave of autocratisation (Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019: 1103).”
Building an authoritarian regime from below: the practice of youth camps and summer schools in crafting ‘desired’ citizens
Yabancı, B. (2025) · Turkish Studies · doi:10.1080/14683849.2025.2468432 · Cited by 2
La relación entre el apoyo a la democracia y las preferencias hacia el ejercicio iliberal y autoritario del poder político en Perú (2023)
del Perú, P. U. C., Elías, M. B., & Benites, A. (2024) · Revista Elecciones · doi:10.53557/elecciones.2024.v23n28.06 · Cited by 2
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Kwong, Y. (2025) · Problems of Post-Communism · doi:10.1080/10758216.2025.2483326 · Cited by 2
“In recent years, the concept of “democratic backsliding” has become the preferred term used by academics to describe “autocratization” (e.g. Croissant and Haynes 2021; Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”
China’s active defence against democracy promotion: a conceptual analysis
Cho, S. (2025) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2494739 · Cited by 3
Autocratisation‐Driven Urban Transformation: The Case of Novi Sad, Serbia
-Cizelj, A. P. I. (2025) · Urban Planning · doi:10.17645/up.9804 · Cited by 2
“Democracy is facing a global decline often referred to as the “third wave of autocratisation” (see Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”
Autocratização e resiliência democrática no Brasil (2019-2023)
Gaspardo, M., & de Oliveira, A. R. S. M. (2025) · Revista Direito GV · doi:10.1590/2317-6172202515 · Cited by 2
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Fendt, J. (2025) · Open Journal of Political Science · doi:10.4236/ojps.2025.153030 · Cited by 2
The frenemy within: populism’s dual role in democratization
Gürsoy, Y., & Baykan, T. S. (2025) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2536214 · Cited by 2
From Democracy to Personalist Electoral Autocracy: The Case of Hungary
Ilonszki, G., & Lengyel, G. (2025) · Politics & Policy · doi:10.1111/polp.70057 · Cited by 2
“Indeed, Hungary has gone far on the road of autocratization and has become a prime example of that trend in the comparative politics literature (Ágh 2016; Bogaards 2018; Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Levitsky and Ziblatt 2019; Stanley 2019).”
Polarization, fragmentation, and democratic deconsolidation in interwar Europe
Kaftan, L., & Bormann, N. (2025) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2537218 · Cited by 2
Authoritarian resurgence: towards a unified analytical framework
Cassani, A., & Tomini, L. (2019) · Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica · doi:10.1017/ipo.2019.14 · Cited by 2
“We do not rest on the assumption that the world has entered a new era of authoritarianism (but see Luehrmann and Lindberg, 2019).”
Pilares de la estabilidad de los regímenes autocráticos: análisis del caso de Venezuela
Medina, V., & Carrillo, V. (2020) · Cuestiones Políticas · doi:10.46398/cuestpol.3865.23 · Cited by 2
La democracia y sus otros. Una contribución desde la semiótica al debate sobre la erosión democrática
Barreneche, S. M. (2020) · Revista de Estudios Sociales · doi:10.7440/res74.2020.02 · Cited by 2
Study in the Virtual Class: Doings of Feminist Pedagogy and the Covid-19 Crisis
Šribar, R. (2020) · Šolsko polje · doi:10.32320/1581-6044.31(5-6)49-66 · Cited by 2
Autocratization Verity: Insights from Democratic Setbacks in Africa
Obiagu, U. C., Abada, I. M., & Mbah, P. O. (2021) · The African Review · doi:10.1163/1821889x-12340051 · Cited by 2
Democracy at the Crossroads: The Case of South Africa
Silander, D., & Malmgren, O. (2022) · Emerald Group Publishing Limited eBooks · doi:10.1108/978-1-80262-927-920221001 · Cited by 2
Africa’s Democratic Outliers
Riedl, R. B. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197598757.003.0004 · Cited by 2

Authors: Lührmann, A., & Lindberg, S. I.
Affiliations: University of Gothenburg (SE)
Corresponding author: Lührmann, Anna
ORCID: Lührmann, Anna
Lindberg, Staffan I.
Venue: Democratization
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Published: 2019-03-01
Volume: 26
Issue: 7
Pages: 1095-1113
ISSN: 1351-0347 (ISSN-L)
1743-890X
DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029
OpenAlex: W2919826889
Cited by: 1,528
References: 48
Citations by year: 2026: 273 · 2025: 290 · 2024: 229 · 2023: 206 · 2022: 179 · 2021: 187 · 2020: 133 · 2019: 31
FWCI: 266.63
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Democratization (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Funders: European Research Council (72419)
Vetenskapsrådet (2018-016114)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
Keywords: autocratization, democratic backsliding, liberal democracy, end of history, end of democracy

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