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Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies
Open accessAbstract
The land-use sector can contribute to climate change mitigation not only by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also by increasing carbon uptake from the atmosphere and thereby creating negative CO 2 emissions. In this paper, we investigate two land-based climate change mitigation strategies for carbon removal: (1) afforestation and (2) bioenergy in combination with carbon capture and storage technology (bioenergy CCS). In our approach, a global tax on GHG emissions aimed at ambitious climate change mitigation incentivizes land-based mitigation by penalizing positive and rewarding negative CO 2 emissions from the land-use system. We analyze afforestation and bioenergy CCS as standalone and combined mitigation strategies. We find that afforestation is a cost-efficient strategy for carbon removal at relatively low carbon prices, while bioenergy CCS becomes competitive only at higher prices. According to our results, cumulative carbon removal due to afforestation and bioenergy CCS is similar at the end of 21st century (600–700 GtCO 2 ), while land-demand for afforestation is much higher compared to bioenergy CCS. In the combined setting, we identify competition for land, but the impact on the mitigation potential (1000 GtCO 2 ) is partially alleviated by productivity increases in the agricultural sector. Moreover, our results indicate that early-century afforestation presumably will not negatively impact carbon removal due to bioenergy CCS in the second half of the 21st century. A sensitivity analysis shows that land-based mitigation is very sensitive to different levels of GHG taxes. Besides that, the mitigation potential of bioenergy CCS highly depends on the development of future bioenergy yields and the availability of geological carbon storage, while for afforestation projects the length of the crediting period is crucial.
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Cites
Crutzen, P. J., Mosier, A. R., Smith, K. A., & Winiwarter, W. (2007) · doi:10.5194/acpd-7-11191-2007 · Cited by 1,298
Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation
Bala, G., Caldeira, K., Wickett, M., Phillips, T. J., Lobell, D. B., Delire, C., & Mirin, A. (2007) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0608998104 · Cited by 957
Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Edgerton, M. D. (2009) · Plant Physiology · doi:10.1104/pp.108.130195 · Cited by 513
Lotze‐Campen, H., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., Rost, S., Popp, A., & Lucht, W. (2008) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00336.x · Cited by 325
Self-citationProbabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation
Rogelj, J., McCollum, D. L., Reisinger, A., Meinshausen, M., & Riahi, K. (2013) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11787 · Cited by 322
Bioenergy revisited: key factors in global potentials of bioenergy
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Popp, A., Dietrich, J. P., Lotze-Campen, H., Klein, D., Bauer, N., Krause, M., Beringer, T., Gerten, D., & Edenhofer, O. (2011) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034017 · Cited by 203
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Accounting for the water impacts of ethanol production
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Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects
Fuss, S., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f · Cited by 1,525
Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions
Smith, P., Davis, S. J., Creutzig, F., Fuss, S., Minx, J., Gabrielle, B., Kato, E., Jackson, R. B., Cowie, A., Kriegler, E., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2870 · Cited by 1,440
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Popp, A., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Doelmann, J. C., Gusti, M., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002 · Cited by 1,070
Self-citationNegative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis
Minx, J. C., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Fuss, S., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9b · Cited by 865
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B. L., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015 · Cited by 735
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Metadata
- Authors
- Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Dietrich, J. P., Klein, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Bonsch, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Weindl, I., Stevanovic, M., & Müller, C.
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2014-05-01
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 064029
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2024035271
- Cited by
- 191
- References
- 10
- FWCI
- 36.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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- Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Dietrich, J. P., Klein, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Bonsch, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Weindl, I., Stevanovic, M., & Müller, C. (2014). Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064029
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