The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system
Open accessAbstract
Biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is expected to play a substantial role in future energy systems, especially if climate policy aims at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration at low levels. However, the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements and land availability for biomass plantations. This letter, by applying a modelling framework with detailed economic representation of the land and energy sector, explores the cost-effective contribution of bioenergy to a low-carbon transition, paying special attention to implications for the land system. In this modelling framework, bioenergy competes directly with other energy technology options on the basis of costs, including implicit costs due to biophysical constraints on land and water availability. As a result, we find that bioenergy from specialized grassy and woody bioenergy crops, such as Miscanthus or poplar, can contribute approximately 100 EJ in 2055 and up to 300 EJ of primary energy in 2095. Protecting natural forests decreases biomass availability for energy production in the medium, but not in the long run. Reducing the land available for agricultural use can partially be compensated for by means of higher rates of technological change in agriculture. In addition, our trade-off analysis indicates that forest protection combined with large-scale cultivation of dedicated bioenergy is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, but also to increase global food prices and increase water scarcity. Therefore, integrated policies for energy, land use and water management are needed.
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In the scenario without forest conservation, biomass from dedicated bioenergy crops will contribute 25% to the total global demand for primary energy carriers.
“For this specific scenario, biomass from dedicated bioenergy crops will contribute 25% to the total global demand for primary energy carriers.”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
The amount of bioenergy supplied is reduced to about 70 EJ in 2055 and 270 EJ in 2095 in the scenario with 100% forest conservation.
“The amount of bioenergy supplied is reduced to about 70 EJ in 2055 and 270 EJ in 2095 in the scenario with 100% forest conservation [27].”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
In the scenario without forest conservation, bioenergy demand increases up to about 300 EJ in 2095 with a demand of about 100 EJ in 2055.
“In the scenario without forest conservation, bioenergy demand increases up to about 300 EJ in 2095 with a demand of about 100 EJ in 2055.”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
The food price index rises most strongly in Europe (22%) and in the Newly Independent States of the Former Soviet Union (16%) until 2095 if climate change mitigation is taken into account and all suitable land is available for land expansion.
“The food price index rises most strongly in Europe (22%) and in the the Newly Independent States of the Former Soviet Union (16%) until 2095 if climate change mitigation is taken into account and all suitable land is available for land expansion.”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
In the scenario without forest conservation, cultivation of dedicated bioenergy crops increases total cropland to 1830 million ha, but forest exclusion limits total cropland to 1520 million ha in 2095.
“In the scenario without forest conservation, cultivation of dedicated bioenergy crops increases total cropland to 1830 million ha, but forest exclusion limits total cropland to 1520 million ha in 2095.”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
If forest conservation is considered, the food price index rises most prominently in Sub-Saharan Africa (82%), Latin America (73%) and Pacific Asia (52%) until 2095.
“But if forest conservation is considered, the food price index rises most prominently in Sub-Saharan Africa (82%), Latin America (73%) and Pacific Asia (52%) until 2095.”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
Due to increasing bioenergy demand the global rate of yield increase would have to rise to 0.8% per year.
“Due to increasing bioenergy demand the global rate of yield increase would have to rise to 0.8% per year.”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
In the scenario without forest conservation, up to 29 Gt of additional cumulative CO2 emissions from land use change due to the cultivation of dedicated bioenergy crops are likely to occur until 2095.
“Simulation results reveal that in the scenario without forest conservation up to 29 Gt of additional cumulative CO 2 emissions from land use change due to the cultivation of dedicated bioenergy crops are likely to occur until 2095.”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
An average global rate of yield increase of 0.6% per year is projected until 2095.
“An average global rate of yield increase of 0.6% per year is projected until 2095.”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
These co-emissions are negligible in the scenario with forest conservation.
“These co-emissions are negligible in the scenario with forest conservation [27].”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
In the scenario without forest conservation, strongest growth in the regional water price index can be found in Latin America (210%), the Newly Independent States of the Former Soviet Union (170%) and Pacific Asia (130%).
“In the scenario without forest conservation, strongest growth in the regional water price index, i.e. changes in shadow prices for irrigation water relative to the reference scenario until 2095, can be found in Latin America (210%), the Newly Independent States of the Former Soviet Union (170%) and Pacific Asia (130%).”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
Total cropland (excluding abandoned land) increases from 1442 million ha in 2005 to 1770 million ha in 2095.
“Total cropland (excluding abandoned land) increases from 1442 million ha in 2005 to 1770 million ha in 2095.”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
The highest rate (0.9% per year until 2095) can be found in the forest conservation scenario, due to additional restrictions of land availability for agricultural expansion.
“The highest rate (0.9% per year until 2095) can be found in the forest conservation scenario, due to additional restrictions of land availability for agricultural expansion [27].”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
The forest conservation scenario increases the regional water price index most heavily in Latin America (460%), Sub Saharan Africa (390%) and Pacific Asia (330%).
“The forest conservation scenario increases the regional water price index most heavily in Latin America (460%), Sub Saharan Africa (390%) and Pacific Asia (330%) [27].”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [27]
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Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies
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Trading more food: Implications for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and the food system
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Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty
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- Authors
- Popp, A., Dietrich, J. P., Lotze-Campen, H., Klein, D., Bauer, N., Krause, M., Beringer, T., Gerten, D., & Edenhofer, O.
- Affiliations
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Technische Universität Berlin (DE)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2011-07-01
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 034017
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2168143993
- Cited by
- 203
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 27 · 2012: 14
- FWCI
- 39.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DepositOnce (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Technische Universität Berlin – Universitätsbibliothek (cc-by)
- Funders
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanics of Materials › Forest Biomass Utilization and Management
- Keywords
- bioenergy, climate change mitigation, land use, land availability, agricultural yields, forest protection, Miscanthus, poplar, water scarcity, food prices, low-carbon transition, energy policy, bioenergy potential
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