Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France
Open accessAbstract
In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring–summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.
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Increasing temperature may lead to contradictory impacts on different production areas: crop yields are expected to increase in some regions such as Canada and northern Spain, whilst other regions such as France and southern Spain are likely to experience increasing agricultural losses.
“Notably, the increasing temperature may lead to contradictory impacts on different production areas.For example, crop yields are expected to increase in some regions such as in Canada and northern Spain, where warmer winters would improve yields (Masud et al., 2018;Bento et al., 2021), whilst other regions such as France and southern Spain are likely to experience increasing agricultural losses (G”
From Genetic resources and precise gene editing for targeted improvement of barley abiotic stress tolerance (2023) · cites this paper as Gammans et al., 2017
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“…in some regions such as in Canada and northern Spain, where warmer winters would improve yields (Masud et al., 2018; Bento et al., 2021), whilst other regions such as France and southern Spain are likely to experience increasing agricultural losses (Gammans et al., 2017; Bento et al., 2021).”
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- Authors
- Gammans, M., Mérel, P., & Ortiz-Bobea, A.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Davis (US)
- Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics (US)
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2017-05-01
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 054007
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2411760869
- Cited by
- 185
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 28 · 2023: 26 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 19 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 14
- FWCI
- 9.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, cereal yield, wheat yield, barley yield, temperature effects on crop yield, precipitation effects, extreme cold, RCP8.5, agricultural technology trends, France
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