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PreprintCited by 6CO2 Sequestration and Geologic InteractionsMarine and coastal ecosystemsCalcium Carbonate Crystallization and Inhibition

Surface area and Ω-aragonite oversaturation as controls of the runaway precipitation process in ocean alkalinity enhancement

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Suitner, Niels, Hartmann, Jens, Varliero, Selene, Faucher, Giulia, Suessle, Philipp, Moras, Charly A.·2025·Biogeosciences
DOI 10.5194/egusphere-2025-381

Preprint — published as 10.5194/bg-23-3965-2026

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Abstract

Abstract. Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a strategy for marine carbon dioxide removal that aims to increase the total alkalinity (TA) of seawater to sequester atmospheric CO2 in the form of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). An intense alkalinization of seawater resulting from OAE treatment could trigger a significant runaway carbonate precipitation process, which may lead to a loss of initially added alkalinity, thereby limiting its efficiency. Even under natural background aragonite saturation states, a continuous yet barely detectable loss of alkalinity is theoretically expected to occur in seawater. With the additional increase through OAE, time ranges to initiate an appreciable TA loss process could be reduced significantly. Therefore, predicting the alkalinity stability ranges might be a necessity for application scenarios. The main drivers of the precipitation process are i) the aragonite saturation state of seawater and ii) the available surface area for heterogeneous precipitation. In this study, we refined the use of logistic functions to describe the temporal evolution of both drivers, with experimental datasets using natural seawater from the Raunefjorden (Bergen, Norway; Temp.: ~11 °C, Sal.: ~32.6). The observed patterns were then used to derive a process-based model for calculating TA-loss rates, focusing on the accelerated precipitation phase of the runaway process while considering saturation levels and available particle surface area. The formation of carbonate phases reduces seawater TA concentrations, inducing a delay or stopping the TA-loss process. In addition, the sinking of precipitated particles decreases the potential for further precipitation by reducing the available surface area in the system. To assess the impact of particle sinking on TA-loss, their shape and size distribution were determined. Under the environmental conditions presented here, TA-loss rates could be reduced by up to 30–40 % due to the sinking of particles, after just one day. Integrating the proposed concepts into ocean models could enhance the accuracy of predictions regarding the fate of added alkalinity. Gaining insights into the evolution of the identified, seemingly stable TA levels can help prevent accelerated precipitation phases. Additionally, an understanding of particle sinking or dilution processes reducing the available reactive particle surface area is relevant to assess the efficacy and durability of OAE.

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  • The mineralogy of the precipitated solid phase will affect loss timescales, and determine whether the loss is transient (e.g., potentially for Mg(OH)2) or effectively permanent (e.g., potentially for carbonate minerals).

    “The mineralogy of the precipitated solid phase will also affect loss timescales, and determine whether the loss is transient (e.g., potentially for Mg(OH)2) or effectively permanent (e.g., potentially for carbonate minerals). 28”

    From A framework for understanding efficiency losses of Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (2026) · cites this paper as [28]

    Section 4.2 (page unavailable) says Mg(OH)2 precipitates may redissolve through mixing and dilution, supporting a potentially transient loss. The Introduction and Abstract describe alkalinity loss from carbonate precipitation, but the paper does not establish that this loss is effectively permanent or that mineralogy determines the loss timescale. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Dissolving alkaline particles may form carbonate precipitates at the μm scale, which may remain suspended for longer periods of time within the mixed layer.

    “On the other hand, dissolving alkaline particles may form carbonate precipitates at the µm scale, which may remain suspended for longer periods of time within the mixed layer. 28”

    From A framework for understanding efficiency losses of Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (2026) · cites this paper as [28]

  • Available surface area plays a key role in the precipitation process.

    “Therefore, available surface area plays a key role in the precipitation process. 14,28”

    From A framework for understanding efficiency losses of Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (2026) · cites this paper as [28]

  • In an OAE context, the most likely minerals to precipitate include calcium carbonate (CaCO3) polymorphs and magnesium hydroxide (Mg(OH)2).

    “In an OAE context, the most likely minerals to precipitate include calcium carbonate (CaCO3) polymorphs and magnesium hydroxide (Mg(OH)2). 14,15,28,30-34”

    From A framework for understanding efficiency losses of Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (2026) · cites this paper as [28]

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Authors
Suitner, N., Hartmann, J., Varliero, S., Faucher, G., Suessle, P., & Moras, C. A.
Affiliations
  • Universität Hamburg (DE)
  • Politecnico di Milano (IT)
  • GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (DE)
Corresponding author
  • Suitner, Niels
  • Hartmann, Jens
ORCID
Venue
Biogeosciences
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Published
2025-03-17
Volume
23
Issue
11
Pages
3965-3980
ISSN
1726-4170 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.5194/egusphere-2025-381
OpenAlex
W4408535216
Cited by
6
References
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2026: 5 · 2025: 1
FWCI
10.47
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Biogeosciences (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
  • Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Bundesministerium für Forschung und Technologie (03F0895F, 03F0965F)
  • Horizon 2020 (869357)
  • Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (390683824)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
  • Physical Sciences › Materials Science › Biomaterials › Calcium Carbonate Crystallization and Inhibition
Keywords
ocean alkalinity enhancement, carbonate precipitation, marine carbon dioxide removal, particle surface area, particle sinking, logistic function, seawater alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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