Protection from previous natural infection compared with mRNA vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 in Qatar: a retrospective cohort study
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Understanding protection conferred by natural SARS-CoV-2 infection versus COVID-19 vaccination is important for informing vaccine mandate decisions. We compared protection conferred by natural infection versus that from the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccines in Qatar. METHODS: We conducted two matched retrospective cohort studies that emulated target trials. Data were obtained from the national federated databases for COVID-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 testing, and COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death between Feb 28, 2020 (pandemic onset in Qatar) and May 12, 2022. We matched individuals with a documented primary infection and no vaccination record (natural infection cohort) with individuals who had received two doses (primary series) of the same vaccine (BNT162b2-vaccinated or mRNA-1273-vaccinated cohorts) at the start of follow-up (90 days after the primary infection). Individuals were exact matched (1:1) by sex, 10-year age group, nationality, comorbidity count, and timing of primary infection or first-dose vaccination. Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death in the natural infection cohorts was compared with incidence in the vaccinated cohorts, using Cox proportional hazards regression models with adjustment for matching factors. FINDINGS: Between Jan 5, 2021 (date of second-dose vaccine roll-out) and May 12, 2022, 104 500 individuals vaccinated with BNT162b2 and 61 955 individuals vaccinated with mRNA-1273 were matched to unvaccinated individuals with a documented primary infection. During follow-up, 7123 SARS-CoV-2 infections were recorded in the BNT162b2-vaccinated cohort and 3583 reinfections were recorded in the matched natural infection cohort. 4282 SARS-CoV-2 infections were recorded in the mRNA-1273-vaccinated cohort and 2301 reinfections were recorded in the matched natural infection cohort. The overall adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for SARS-CoV-2 infection was 0·47 (95% CI 0·45-0·48) after previous natural infection versus BNT162b2 vaccination, and 0·51 (0·49-0·54) after previous natural infection versus mRNA-1273 vaccination. The overall adjusted HR for severe (acute care hospitalisations), critical (intensive care unit hospitalisations), or fatal COVID-19 cases was 0·24 (0·08-0·72) after previous natural infection versus BNT162b2 vaccination, and 0·24 (0·05-1·19) after previous natural infection versus mRNA-1273 vaccination. Severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 was rare in both the natural infection and vaccinated cohorts. INTERPRETATION: Previous natural infection was associated with lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, regardless of the variant, than mRNA primary-series vaccination. Vaccination remains the safest and most optimal tool for protecting against infection and COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death, irrespective of previous infection status. FUNDING: The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar; Qatar Ministry of Public Health; Hamad Medical Corporation; Sidra Medicine; Qatar Genome Programme; and Qatar University Biomedical Research Center.
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The findings are explained by short-lived protection of primary-series vaccination against omicron and more durable protection from natural infection.
“These findings are explained by the short-lived protection of primary-series vaccination against omicron infections3,27 and the more durable protection from natural infection,2,28 as confirmed by the additional analysis of protection as a function of time after previous infection or vaccination (Figure 3).”
From Effects of Previous Infection and Vaccination on Symptomatic Omicron Infections (2022) · cites this paper as [28]
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Chemaitelly, H., Ayoub, H. H., AlMukdad, S., Coyle, P., Tang, P., Yassine, H. M., Al-Khatib, H. A., Smatti, M. K., Hasan, M. R., Al-Kanaani, Z., Al-Kuwari, E., Jeremijenko, A., Kaleeckal, A. H., Latif, A. N., Shaik, R. M., Abdul-Rahim, H. F., Nasrallah, G. K., Al-Kuwari, M. G., Butt, A. A., Al-Romaihi, H. E., Al-Thani, M. H., Al-Khal, A., Bertollini, R., & Abu-Raddad, L. J.
- Affiliations
- Cornell University (US)
- Qatar University (QA)
- Queen's University Belfast (GB)
- Sidra Medical and Research Center (QA)
- Hamad Medical Corporation (QA)
- Ministry of Public Health (QA)
- Corresponding author
- Chemaitelly, Hiam
- Abu-Raddad, Laith J
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Lancet Microbe
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2022-12
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- e944-e955
- ISSN
- 2666-5247 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9651957
- OpenAlex
- W4308765692
- Cited by
- 76
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 13
- FWCI
- 8.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- The Lancet Microbe (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Portal (Queen's University Belfast) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Qatar University QSpace (Qatar University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Hamad Medical Corporation
- Sidra Medicine
- Qatar University
- Weill Cornell Medical College
- Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, natural infection, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, vaccine protection, reinfection, COVID-19 hospitalization, COVID-19 mortality, mandatory vaccination, Qatar, SARS-CoV-2 variants, Omicron BA.1
- MeSH terms
- Reinfection, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, COVID-19 Testing, BNT162 Vaccine, Humans, Public Health, Qatar, Retrospective Studies, RNA, Messenger
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