Psychosis, delusions and the “jumping to conclusions” reasoning bias: a systematic review and meta-analysis
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We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the magnitude and specificity of the "jumping to conclusions" (JTC) bias in psychosis and delusions. We examined the extent to which people with psychosis, and people with delusions specifically, required less information before making decisions. We examined (1) the average amount of information required to make a decision and (2) numbers who demonstrated an extreme JTC bias, as assessed by the "beads task." We compared people with psychosis to people with and without nonpsychotic mental health problems, and people with psychosis with and without delusions. We examined whether reduced data-gathering was associated with increased delusion severity. We identified 55 relevant studies, and acquired previously unpublished data from 16 authors. People with psychosis required significantly less information to make decisions than healthy individuals (k= 33,N= 1935,g= -0.53, 95% CI -0.69, -0.36) and those with nonpsychotic mental health problems (k= 13,N= 667,g= -0.58, 95% CI -0.80, -0.35). The odds of extreme responding in psychosis were between 4 and 6 times higher than the odds of extreme responding by healthy participants and participants with nonpsychotic mental health problems. The JTC bias was linked to a greater probability of delusion occurrence in psychosis (k= 14,N= 770, OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.12, 2.05). There was a trend-level inverse association between data-gathering and delusion severity (k= 18;N= 794;r= -.09, 95% CI -0.21, 0.03). Hence, nonaffective psychosis is characterized by a hasty decision-making style, which is linked to an increased probability of delusions.
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Those induced to experience negative affect reported significantly more paranoid thoughts and a more pronounced Jumping to Conclusions bias than those not induced.
“The typical finding is that those induced to experience negative affect reported significantly more paranoid thoughts and a more pronounced Jumping to Conclusions bias (JTC, for a review see [36] when compared to participants who were not induced to experience negative affect [35, 36].”
From A structural equation model of the relationship between insomnia, negative affect, and paranoid thinking (2017) · cites this paper as [36]
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- Authors
- Dudley, R., Taylor, P., Wickham, S., & Hutton, P.
- Affiliations
- Cumbria Northumberland Tyne and Wear NHS Foundation Trust (GB)
- University of Liverpool (GB)
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Dudley, Robert
- Venue
- Schizophrenia Bulletin
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2015-10-31
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 652-665
- ISSN
- 0586-7614 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-1701
- PMC
- PMC4838082
- OpenAlex
- W2163505421
- Cited by
- 353
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 43 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 33 · 2021: 43 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 29 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 28 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 1 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 3.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- Schizophrenia Bulletin (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Edinburgh Napier Research Repository (Edinburgh Napier University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Newcastle University ePrints (Newcastle Univesity)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Mental Health and Psychiatry
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- psychosis, delusions
- MeSH terms
- Decision Making, Delusions, Humans, Psychotic Disorders
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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