An absolute chronology for early Egypt using radiocarbon dating and Bayesian statistical modelling
Open accessAbstract
The Egyptian state was formed prior to the existence of verifiable historical records. Conventional dates for its formation are based on the relative ordering of artefacts. This approach is no longer considered sufficient for cogent historical analysis. Here, we produce an absolute chronology for Early Egypt by combining radiocarbon and archaeological evidence within a Bayesian paradigm. Our data cover the full trajectory of Egyptian state formation and indicate that the process occurred more rapidly than previously thought. We provide a timeline for the First Dynasty of Egypt of generational-scale resolution that concurs with prevailing archaeological analysis and produce a chronometric date for the foundation of Egypt that distinguishes between historical estimates.
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Bayesian modelling can generate decadal or annual precision.
“Bayesian modelling can generate this sort of precision (Bronk Ramsey et al. 2010; Dee et al. 2013)”
From Radiocarbon dating and the Naqada relative chronology (2014) · cites this paper as Dee et al. 2013
The Model outputs and discussion section reports decadal-scale resolution for the First Dynasty, with an average precision of 32 calendar years at 68% probability. It does not report annual precision, so Dee et al. support the decadal part of the attributed claim but not the annual part. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThere was a dramatic escalation in Egyptian royal funerary practices and depositions, beginning with the death of king Aha around 3080 BC.
“there was a dramatic escalation in Egyptian royal funerary practices and depositions, beginning with the death of king Aha (''the fighter''), around 3080 BC on the most recent dating (Dee et al. 2013).”
From The Egyptian Predynastic and State Formation (2016) · cites this paper as Dee et al. 2013
In “Model outputs and discussion,” the paper dates Aha’s accession to a median of 3085 BCE, supporting an approximate date of 3080 BCE for the start of his reign. It does not date his death to 3080 BCE or report a dramatic escalation in royal funerary practices beginning with that death. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe number of graves attributed to the Naqada IIC-D horizon is far larger than for the preceding periods, yet new chronological models suggest that this was a much shorter span of time than previous chronologies had permitted.
“Overall, the number of graves attributed to the Naqada IIC-D horizon is far larger than for the preceding periods (Buchez 2011a, pp. 948-950), yet new chronological models (Dee et al. 2013) suggest that this was a much shorter span of time than previous chronologies had permitted.”
From The Egyptian Predynastic and State Formation (2016) · cites this paper as Dee et al. 2013
In all 91 results were collated, of which 67 were employed by Dee et al. (2013), and another 16 are unpublished data from the same research programme; the remaining 8 results came from a study of Minshat Abu Omar published by Kroeper (2003).
“In all 91 results were collated, of which 67 were employed by of Dee et al. (2013), and another 16 are unpublished data from the same research programme. The remaining 8 results came from a study of Minshat Abu Omar published by Kroeper (2003).”
From Radiocarbon dating and the Naqada relative chronology (2014) · cites this paper as Dee et al. (2013)
The Experimental set-up reports a dataset of 186 radiocarbon dates, but does not identify the 67 results said to have been used in the citing document’s collation. Searches for 67, the 16 unpublished results, and Minshat Abu Omar found no passage establishing those figures or their relationship to this paper. The total of 186 does not rule out a 67-result subset. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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Cites
IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0–50,000 years cal BP
Reimer, P. J., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J. W., Blackwell, P. G., Ramsey, C. B., Buck, C. E., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Friedrich, M., et al. (2013) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.2458/azu_js_rc.55.16947 · Cited by 14,591 · see citing works
Self-citationRadiocarbon-Based Chronology for Dynastic Egypt
Ramsey, C. B., Dee, M. W., Rowland, J. M., Higham, T. F. G., Harris, S. A., Brock, F., Quiles, A., Wild, E. M., Marcus, E. S., & Shortland, A. J. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1189395 · Cited by 246 · cited 2× · see citing works
“One of the most effective approaches to absolute chronology currently available uses Bayesian statistical modelling [15, 16].”
BackgroundSelf-citationCalibration of radiocarbon results pertaining to related archaeological events
Buck, C. E., Litton, C. D., & Smith, A. F. M. (1992) · Journal of Archaeological Science · doi:10.1016/0305-4403(92)90025-x · Cited by 244 · see citing works
Investigating the likelihood of a reservoir offset in the radiocarbon record for ancient Egypt
Dee, M. W., Brock, F., Harris, S. A., Ramsey, C. B., Shortland, A. J., Higham, T. F. G., & Rowland, J. M. (2010) · Journal of Archaeological Science · doi:10.1016/j.jas.2009.09.003 · Cited by 68 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Our analyses also took account of the minor variation in radiocarbon activity (19 ± 514C years) recently proposed for Egypt [16,26].”
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Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 14
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
The Archaeology of the Bronze Age Levant
Greenberg, R. (2019) · doi:10.1017/9781316275993 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
The Egyptian Predynastic and State Formation
Stevenson, A. (2016) · Journal of Archaeological Research · doi:10.1007/s10814-016-9094-7 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
“Estimates now extend Badarian material culture into the earlier part of the fourth millennium BC (Dee et al. 2013; Wengrow et al. 2014), but no continuous transition to Naqada I-type assemblages has been found at any cemetery (Hendrickx 2006, p. 71).”
BackgroundSelf-citationRadiocarbon re-dating of contact-era Iroquoian history in northeastern North America
Manning, S. W., Birch, J., Conger, M. A., Dee, M. W., Griggs, C., Hadden, C. S., Hogg, A. G., Ramsey, C. B., Sanft, S., Steier, P., et al. (2018) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav0280 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Self-citationRegev, J., Finkelstein, I., Adams, M. J., & Boaretto, E. (2015) · Ägypten und Levante · doi:10.1553/s241 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Radiocarbon dating and the Naqada relative chronology
Dee, M. W., Wengrow, D., Shortland, A. J., Stevenson, A., Brock, F., & Bronk Ramsey, C. (2014) · Journal of Archaeological Science · doi:10.1016/j.jas.2014.03.016 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Dee, M., Wengrow, D., Shortland, A., Stevenson, A., Brock, F., Girdland Flink, L., & Bronk Ramsey, C.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- University College London (GB)
- Cranfield University (GB)
- Natural History Museum, London, UK
- RLAHA, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK
- Corresponding author
- Dee, Michael
- Venue
- Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2013-11-08
- Volume
- 469
- Issue
- 2159
- Pages
- 20130395
- ISSN
- 1364-5021 (ISSN-L)
- 1471-2946
- PMC
- PMC3780825
- OpenAlex
- W2140372499
- Cited by
- 93
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 3 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 35.33
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Leverhulme Trust
- Natural Environment Research Council (NRCF010002)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient Egypt and Archaeology
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient and Medieval Archaeology Studies
- Keywords
- absolute chronology, First Dynasty of Egypt, radiocarbon dating, absolute dating, dynastic chronology
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