Cited by 16Ancient Egypt and ArchaeologyArchaeology and ancient environmental studiesAncient and Medieval Archaeology Studies

Radiocarbon dating and the Naqada relative chronology

Open access
Dee, Michael W., Wengrow, David, Shortland, Andrew J., Stevenson, Alice, Brock, Fiona, Bronk Ramsey, Christopher·2014·Journal of Archaeological Science

Abstract

The Naqada relative chronology provides the main cultural framework for the Predynastic period of ancient Egypt. It was devised in the late nineteenth century by Flinders Petrie to improve understanding of the prehistoric origins of the Egyptian state. Petrie's approach became widely known and formed the basis for the development of seriation. In this study, we test the reliability of the Naqada relative chronology as a dating tool against all the relevant radiocarbon information. The results show that the main blocks of the relative sequence do form a true chronology, but also indicate that the system is much less reliable at the level of individual phases. We discuss the nature of the discrepancies and the broader influence of the relative chronology on current understanding of Early Egypt.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper tests whether the Naqada relative chronology is a true absolute chronology by collating radiocarbon dates and using Bayesian ordering. It finds the Simplified blocks are supported, but the Conventional individual-phase sequence is much less reliable.

Key findings

  • The Simplified chronology’s main blocks—IC–IIB, IIC–IID, and IIIA1–IIIA2—are supported as following each other in absolute time for Egypt as a whole and for Naqada/Ballas specifically; however, overlap is significant, and the probability that IIC–IID precedes IIIA1–IIIA2 is only 0.62.
  • The Conventional chronology is much less secure: 14C evidence calls into question whether phases IC, IIA, and IIB form a chronological sequence at all; results suggest IC is not earliest but latest of the three, with probability IC precedes IIB almost even (0.48).
  • The Conventional phase IID cannot be distinguished chronologically from IIIA1: probability IID is older than IIIA1 is 0.49; all IIIA1 samples came from Cemetery U at Abydos, so local timing may explain the pattern.
  • Too little data exists to determine whether IA–IB precedes the three Simplified blocks, though the one measurement made meets that expectation.

Methods

  • Collated all 14C dates assignable to Naqada relative dates IA–IIIB; initial dataset 91 results (67 from Dee et al. 2013, 16 unpublished from same programme, 8 from Kroeper 2003). Nine dates removed for sample quality and 4 for possible inbuilt age. Final Egypt datasets: All 74 samples/78 dates; Simplified 67/71; Conventional 60/62; Naqada and Ballas All 23/27; Simplified 19/23; Conventional 14/16.
  • Tested ordering of Conventional and Simplified chronologies using the Order function in OxCal v4.2. Each phase was modelled as an OxCal Phase with uniform prior, delimited by Boundaries in a Sequence; Sum calculated average date; 5% outlier probability applied.
  • Controlled context type (funerary contexts prioritized; habitation contexts excluded), sample quality, assignment subjectivity (Hendrickx assignments where possible), and geography (Naqada/Ballas subset).

Limitations

  • Stated: more high-quality data are required to bolster the observed patterns; too little data for IA–IB; all IIIA1 samples came from Cemetery U at Abydos, so the IID/IIIA1 result may reflect local timing; it is not known how synchronous Predynastic cultural transitions were across Egypt; Naqada relative-date assignment is open to subjectivity; 14C dates come from associated organics, not the ceramics, and calibration usually broadens ranges to ca. 200–300 years (95% probability).
  • Evident from the text: some phases have very small samples (e.g., IA–IB has one measurement; IIIA1 has 6 samples from 1 site in the Egypt dataset), limiting precision and generalizability.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.jas.2014.03.016

Cites

23 of 23 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

4 of 17 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Verifying the reliability of the Naqada relative chronology has proved highly challenging.

    “Verifying this assumption has proved highly challenging (e.g.: Savage 2001).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Savage 2001 source
  • Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Bayesian modelling can generate decadal or annual precision.

    “Bayesian modelling can generate this sort of precision (Bronk Ramsey et al. 2010; Dee et al. 2013)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Bronk Ramsey et al. 2010 source
    • cites Dee et al. 2013 source

      The Model outputs and discussion section reports decadal-scale resolution for the First Dynasty, with an average precision of 32 calendar years at 68% probability. It does not report annual precision, so Dee et al. support the decadal part of the attributed claim but not the annual part. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Findingown data
    § Radiocarbon

    The Naqada relative chronology is much less reliable at the level of individual phases.

    “but also indicate that the system is much less reliable at the level of individual phases”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Radiocarbon

    The main blocks of the Naqada relative sequence form a true chronology.

    “The results show that the main blocks of the relative sequence do form a true chronology”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Discussion

    The results obtained from comparison of the dates for phases IC, IIA and IIB contradict the expected ordering of the phases.

    “the results obtained from our comparison of these dates contradict the expected ordering of the phases.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The 14C samples are correctly assigned to their Naqada phases.
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 15
  • May combine two claims. 11
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § Methods

    In all 91 results were collated, of which 67 were employed by Dee et al. (2013), and another 16 are unpublished data from the same research programme; the remaining 8 results came from a study of Minshat Abu Omar published by Kroeper (2003).

    “In all 91 results were collated, of which 67 were employed by of Dee et al. (2013), and another 16 are unpublished data from the same research programme. The remaining 8 results came from a study of Minshat Abu Omar published by Kroeper (2003).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Dee et al. (2013) source

      The Experimental set-up reports a dataset of 186 radiocarbon dates, but does not identify the 67 results said to have been used in the citing document’s collation. Searches for 67, the 16 unpublished results, and Minshat Abu Omar found no passage establishing those figures or their relationship to this paper. The total of 186 does not rule out a 67-result subset. (LLM, conf=0.72)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Kroeper (2003)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § Verification

    In order for 14C measurements to be converted to calendrical dates, they need to be compared with a calibration curve.

    “in order for 14 C measurements to be converted to calendrical dates, they need to be compared with a reference dataset known as a calibration curve (see Bronk Ramsey 2006; Reimer et al. 2009).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Bronk Ramsey 2006 source
    • cites Reimer et al. 2009 source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingown data
    § Discussion

    Table 4 shows that 19 good-quality 14C dates were obtained for phases IC, IIA and IIB from a range of different sites.

    “Table 4 shows that 19 good-­-quality 14 C dates were obtained for phases IC, IIA and IIB from a range of different sites.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Discussion

    The average date for phase IIC is clearly older than the averages for IID, IIIA1 and IIIA2, with IIIA2 being the youngest of the four.

    “The average date for phase IIC is clearly older than the averages for IID, IIIA1 and IIIA2, with the latter being the youngest of the four (Table 4).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The 14C samples are correctly assigned to their Naqada phases.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Methods

    It is not known how synchronous the cultural transitions of the Predynastic were across Egypt; even if the system is correctly ordered, it is likely that some locations led or lagged behind others.

    “it is not known how synchronous the cultural transitions of the Predynastic were across Egypt. Indeed, even if the system is correctly ordered, it is likely that some locations led or lagged behind others.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § Methods

    Extending the Naqada system to habitation contexts involves an additional step away from the system's evidence base, so such results were deemed inadmissible.

    “extending the system to habitation contexts involves an additional step away from the system's evidence base, so these results were deemed inadmissible for our study.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisereasoning
    § Introduction

    Testing the Naqada chronology at the implied level of resolution would require absolute dates of decadal or even annual precision.

    “Testing the chronology at the implied level of resolution (the whole Naqada period is thought not to exceed a millennium) would require absolute dates of decadal or even annual precision.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The whole Naqada period does not exceed a millennium.
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisenone given
    § Introduction

    Bayesian analysis of relative chronology generally begins with the assumption that the relative ordering is correct a priori.

    “such analysis generally begins with the assumption the relative ordering is correct a priori .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisereasoning
    § Verification

    Discrepancies arising from material history can be mitigated by careful sample selection and measuring more than one type of material from the same context.

    “discrepancies arising in this manner can be mitigated by careful sample selection and measuring more than one type of material from the same context.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § Methods

    Data were found for every phase from IB to IIIA2, but none specifically for phases IA or IIIB that matched the criteria.

    “Data were found for every phase from IB to IIIA2, but none specifically for phases IA or IIIB that matched the criteria given above.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Introduction

    The validity of the Naqada sequence has implications well beyond the field of Egyptian archaeology.

    “because it was the forerunner of all typological chronologies, the validity of the Naqada sequence has implications well beyond the field of Egyptian archaeology.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Verification

    14C dates represent the age of the organics found in association with the pottery, and hence depend on the material history of the former and not the latter.

    “they represent the age of the organics found in association with the pottery, and hence depend on the material history of the former and not the latter (see Dee et al. 2012, for examples of inappropriate sample materials).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Dee et al. 2012 source
    • Rests on an assumption: 14C dates can only be obtained on biogenic materials, not on the ceramics upon which the Naqada relative dating system is based.
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation
    § Methods

    Materials with minimal inbuilt age and excellent certainty of association were prioritised.

    “we prioritised materials that exhibited minimal inbuilt age and excellent certainty of association (see Waterbolk 1971; Dee et al. 2012).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Waterbolk 1971 source
    • cites Dee et al. 2012 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    The Naqada relative chronology is incongruous with new archaeological evidence in several respects, including absence of whole classes of ceramics, local stylistic and compositional variations, and differences in object clustering.

    “Problems have included the absence of whole classes of ceramics, local stylistic and compositional variations, and differences in object clustering (Friedman 1994; Hendrickx 2006; Wengrow 2006).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Friedman 1994
    • cites Hendrickx 2006 source
    • cites Wengrow 2006

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Methods

    Assignments made by Dr Stan Hendrickx were utilised wherever possible; otherwise those made by original excavators were used.

    “We utilised assignments made by the foremost scholar in the field, Dr Stan Hendrickx, wherever possible. Otherwise, those made by the original excavators were used.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § Introduction

    Directly comparing the age of individual contexts, or the ordering of specific artefacts, requires wholly independent measurement.

    “Directly comparing the age of individual contexts, or the ordering of specific artefacts, requires wholly independent measurement.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Methods

    The initial dataset comprised all the 14C results available for Predynastic funerary contexts.

    “Our initial dataset comprised all the 14 C results available for Predynastic funerary contexts.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § Methods

    Where the assignment was too vague to fit within either the Conventional or Simplified relative sequence, the 14C result could not be used.

    “Where the assignment was too vague to fit within either the Conventional or Simplified relative sequence, the 14 C result could not be used.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Methods

    The relative assignments for 7 of the remaining samples were too imprecise to fit the Simplified chronology, and 9 further assignments were too broad for the individual phases of the Conventional sequence.

    “The relative assignments for 7 of the remaining samples were too imprecise to fit the Simplified chronology, and 9 further assignments were too broad for the individual phases of the Conventional sequence.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Interpretationown data
    § Discussion

    The ordering of the Conventional Naqada chronology is much less secure than the ordering of the Simplified chronology.

    “The ordering of the Conventional Naqada chronology is much less secure.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The 14C samples are correctly assigned to their Naqada phases.
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § Discussion

    The concurrence of the 14C evidence with the ordering of the Simplified Naqada chronology holds for Egypt as a whole, as well as for the site of Naqada and Ballas specifically.

    “This statement holds for Egypt as a whole, as well as for the site of Naqada and Ballas, specifically.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The 14C samples are correctly assigned to their Naqada phases.
    • Rests on an assumption: The samples analysed are representative of the phases across Egypt.
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Methods

    An Outlier probability of 5% was applied to all samples to minimise the impact of any spurious results.

    “An Outlier probability of 5% was applied to all samples to minimise the impact of any spurious results.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § Methods

    Nine dates were removed from the dataset as a result of the Sample Quality criterion and 4 further results, on wood and charcoal, to comply with the Inbuilt Age requirement.

    “Nine dates were removed from the dataset as a result of the Sample Quality criterion above and 4 further results, on wood and charcoal, to comply with the Inbuilt Age requirement.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
23 of 23
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    14C dates can only be obtained on biogenic materials, not on the ceramics upon which the Naqada relative dating system is based.

    “14 C dates can only be obtained on biogenic materials (human, animal and plant remains) and not on the ceramics upon which the Naqada relative dating system is based.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The whole Naqada period does not exceed a millennium.

    “the whole Naqada period is thought not to exceed a millennium”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The 14C samples are correctly assigned to their Naqada phases.

    “the results obtained from our comparison of these dates contradict the expected ordering of the phases.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The samples analysed are representative of the phases across Egypt.

    “This statement holds for Egypt as a whole, as well as for the site of Naqada and Ballas, specifically.”
4 of 4

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 4

  1. Kaiser, 1957, Zur inneren chronologie der Nagadakultur, Archaeol. Geogr., 6, 69
  2. Kroeper, 2003, Radiocarbon and thermoluminescence dates from the Pre/Early Dynastic cemetery of Minshat Abu Omar (North–Eastern Nile Delta), vol. 8, 227
  3. Lane Fox, 1870, Primitive warfare. Part III; on the resemblance of the weapons of early races, their variations, continuity and development of form – metal period, R. United Serv. Inst. J., 13, 509
  4. O'Brien, 2000, Meeting theoretical and methodological challenges to the future of evolutionary archaeology, Rev. Archaeol., 20, 14

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Dee, M. W., Wengrow, D., Shortland, A. J., Stevenson, A., Brock, F., & Bronk Ramsey, C.
Affiliations
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • University College London (GB)
  • Cranfield University (GB)
Venue
Journal of Archaeological Science
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2014-06
Volume
46
Pages
319-323
ISSN
0305-4403 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2029858577
Cited by
16
References
23
Citations by year
2025: 1 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 2 · 2018: 3 · 2016: 1
FWCI
2.24
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Journal of Archaeological Science (publishedVersion)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient Egypt and Archaeology
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient and Medieval Archaeology Studies
Keywords
radiocarbon dating, Predynastic Egypt, Flinders Petrie, seriation

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