Cited by 455Asian Industrial and Economic DevelopmentEconomic Theory and PolicyPolitical Economy and Marxism

Industrial Policy in the 21st Century

Open access
Chang, Ha‐Joon, Andreoni, Antonio·2020·Development and Change

Abstract

The paper develops a new theory of industrial policy centered on learning in production, uncertainty, macro management, conflict management, global value chains, and financialization.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The article argues that industrial policy needs a new theoretical foundation that incorporates commitments under uncertainty, learning in production, macroeconomic demand management, and conflict management. It also contends that global value chains, financialization, and new imperialism reshape the constraints and possibilities for industrial policy today.

Key findings

  • The authors propose expanding industrial policy theory beyond neoclassical and existing evolutionary/structuralist approaches by adding four neglected dimensions: irreversible commitments under uncertainty, learning through production rather than only R&D, demand/macroeconomic management, and political conflict management.
  • They argue that production-centered learning is central to innovation and catch-up; “smart” knowledge policies cannot substitute for “dumb” production-support policies, and East Asian successes combined protection, subsidies, and export promotion with training and industrial extension services.
  • New global realities matter: GVCs concentrate power in TNCs and can trap suppliers in low-value activities; financialization weakens the profit-investment link and pushes economies toward underinvestment; new imperialism constrains policy space, though room remains (e.g., many tariffs are bound above applied levels; over 250 bilateral trade agreements now versus about 50 in the mid-1990s; only 20 parties covering 48 WTO members have joined the government procurement agreement).
  • Macroeconomic policy affects industrial policy: high real interest rates (e.g., 10–12% in Brazil and South Africa) disproportionately hurt capital-intensive manufacturing; overvalued exchange rates harm export manufacturing; conflict management determines inclusiveness, with reactive and anticipatory measures.

Methods

  • Design: conceptual/theoretical article that builds a new framework for industrial policy by combining neglected issues with recent changes in the global economy.
  • Data or sample: no empirical dataset or sample; the argument draws on prior scholarship and illustrative country/historical examples.
  • Main analysis: critical synthesis and theory development; it identifies gaps in neoclassical, evolutionary, and structuralist accounts, then discusses GVCs, financialization, and imperialism as forces requiring theoretical revision.

Limitations

  • Paper-stated: the authors say their selection of three new realities is not exhaustive and reflects their emphasis on power dynamics.
  • Paper-stated: they acknowledge uncertainty-reducing industrial policies can fail—e.g., limiting competition may breed complacency, and backing a technology standard may prematurely end competition or support a weaker technology.
  • Evident from the text: the article is conceptual and does not test its propositions empirically or quantify effects; its examples are illustrative rather than a systematic comparative dataset.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1111/dech.12570

Cites

113 of 113 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

2 of 66 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    The number of bilateral free trade agreements increased from around 50 in the mid-1990s to over 250 now.

    “The number of bilateral free trade agreements also started increasing in the 1990s and exploded in the 2000s; they numbered around 50 in the mid-1990s but there are now over 250 of them.5”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [5] 5. Andreoni, A. (2018) 'The Architecture and Dynamics of Industrial Ecosystems', Cambridge Journal of Economics 42(6): 1613-42. source

      The Introduction discusses changes in the geography of production and trade, but not bilateral free trade agreements. Searches for the claimed increase and the figures of around 50 and over 250 found no passage in our copy addressing them; the cited paper’s page numbers were not available. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Interpretationreasoning

    As a result, developing countries are today much more constrained in the use of many industrial policy measures that were standard in the early post-colonial era between the mid-1940s and the mid-1970s.

    “As a result, the developing countries are today much more constrained in the use of many 5 See: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/10/global-trade-graphicsindustrial policy measures that were the standard fares of the early post-colonial era between the mid-1940s and the mid-1970s.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [5] 5. Andreoni, A. (2018) 'The Architecture and Dynamics of Industrial Ecosystems', Cambridge Journal of Economics 42(6): 1613-42. source

      The Introduction and section 6 discuss changing production systems and industrial policy in mature economies, but neither addresses whether developing countries face tighter limits on policy measures than they did in the mid-1940s to mid-1970s. Searches for post-colonial industrial policy and restrictions on developing countries’ policy space found no passage addressing that comparison. (LLM, conf=0.74)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Findingnone given

    Dynamics triggered by commitments under uncertainty and learning processes within firms are linked in a circular and cumulative relationship with demand.

    “Third, we showed how the dynamics triggered by the commitments under uncertainty and learning processes within firms are linked in a circular and cumulative relationship with demand.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    The problem of commitments under uncertainty is a key issue in industrial policy, as it affects investments in specific productive capabilities, which are fundamental drivers of capitalist accumulation and technological change.

    “Starting from the firm level, we have shown that the problem of commitments under uncertainty is a key issue in industrial policy, as it affects investments in specific productive capabilities, the latter being one of the most fundamental drivers 7 See Chang (2007b) for further discussion on policy space in historical perspective, and Andreoni et al. (2019a) for an analysis of policy space for the”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    Financialization of corporations and of the overall financial system has led to a spiral of underinvestment, threatening the reproduction of capitalist economies.

    “We showed how the financialization of corporations as well as of the overall financial system has led to a spiral of underinvestment, thus threatening the very reproduction of capitalist economies.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 48
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 72
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Overvalued currencies tend to more negatively affect export industries, especially manufacturing industries, although different sectors are affected differently according to the price elasticities of demand of their export products.

    “Overvalued currencies tend to more negatively affect export industries, especially manufacturing industries, although different sectors tend to be affected in different ways according to the price elasticities of demand of their export products.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    Over the last couple of decades, the BNDES in Brazil has tried to counter the effects of overvalued currency by extending subsidized credit to selected industries.

    “For example, over the last couple of decades, the BNDES in Brazil has tried to counter the effects of overvalued currency by extending subsidized credit to selected industries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    The type of conflict management has important implications for the inclusiveness of the industrial development process.

    “The type of conflict management has important implications for the 'inclusiveness' of the industrial development process.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Learning is the main source of value creation and cuts across various firms and sectors.

    “We highlighted how learning is the main source of value creation and how it cuts across various firms and sectors.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    There is a combination of vertical disintegration and horizontal concentration of global businesses, increasing fuzziness of standard sectoral boundaries, and increasing need to understand production processes in terms of capability domains rather than final products.

    “In this regard, we looked at the combination of vertical disintegration and horizontal concentration of global businesses, the increasing fuzziness of standard sectoral boundaries, and the increasing need to understand production processes in terms of capability domains, rather than final products.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    Successful industrialization is possible only under certain macroeconomic conditions.

    “In this respect, we highlighted how successful industrialization is possible only under certain macroeconomic conditions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Financialization at the corporate level manifests in five ways: short-termism in corporate control and investment strategy; increasing distribution of profits through dividends and stock buy-backs; increasing reliance on external finance; increasing importance of financial activities by non-financial corporations; and increasing size of the financial sector.

    “At this level, financialization manifests itself in five ways: (1) short-termism in corporate control and in investment strategy; (2) increasing distribution of profits through dividends and stock buy-backs; (3) increasing reliance/dependence on external finance; (4) increasing importance of financial activities by non-financial corporations, including stock buy-backs; (5) increasing size of the”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Transformation of the global production system has led to a new accumulation regime and new dynamics of value creation and capture.

    “First, we analysed how the transformation of the global production system has led to a new accumulation regime as well as a new dynamics of value creation and capture.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Power dynamics determine the policy space that countries have by affecting the structure and management of multilateral, regional and bilateral economic arrangements.

    “and they determine the policy space that countries have by affecting the structure and the management of multilateral, regional and bilateral economic arrangements.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Discussions of industrial policy in the neoclassical framework have failed to recognize the importance of managing macroeconomic conditions and social conflicts in the successful conduct of industrial policy.

    “discussions of industrial policy in the neoclassical framework have failed to recognize the importance of managing macroeconomic conditions, on the one hand, and social conflicts, on the other hand, in the successful conduct of industrial policy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Neither evolutionary nor structuralist contributions pay much attention to the political economy dimension of economic change and thus neglect the role of the state in managing conflicts that arise from change.

    “neither evolutionary nor structuralist contributions pay much attention to the political economy dimension of economic change and thus neglect the role of the state in managing the conflicts that arise from the process of change.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Power dynamics affect the creation, capture and distribution of value along global value chains.

    “Power dynamics affect the creation, capture and distribution of value along global value chains (GVCs);”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Industrial policy is back at the centre stage of policy debate.

    “Industrial policy is back at the centre stage of policy debate, while the world is undergoing dramatic transformations.”
    • Also stated in: § INTRODUCTION · plain
      “Unexpectedly, however, industrial policy is now back in fashion, both in academia but also, more importantly, in the real world.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Irreversible commitments are made because they raise productivity, but they make subsequent changes costly.

    “These irreversible commitments are made because they raise productivity, but the problem is that they make subsequent changes costly.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, many leading economies have become more willing to recognize the value of industrial policy and have taken measures to strengthen it.

    “since the 2008 financial crisis many leading economies have become more willing to recognize the value of industrial policy and have taken measures to strengthen it -the USA and Germany are the most prominent examples (Andreoni, 2016;Mazzucato, 2013).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Andreoni, 2016

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Mazzucato, 2013

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Neoclassical economics sees production as a mechanical process and overlooks that it requires commitment of resources under uncertainty and continuous learning.

    “Neoclassical economics sees production as a mechanical process (as expressed in the production function) and overlooks the fact that it requires commitment of resources under uncertainty and continuous learning (Andreoni and Chang, 2017).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Andreoni and Chang, 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Evolutionary economics has neglected irreversible investment commitments under uncertainty and learning in production.

    “Evolutionary economics may have improved our understanding of the role of uncertainty in the innovation process, but it has rather neglected the issues of irreversible investment commitments under uncertainty and learning in production (as opposed to research and development [R&D]).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Power dynamics define the ability of governments to resist anti-production pressure coming from financialization.

    “they define the ability of governments to resist the anti-production pressure coming from financialization;”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The world is highly uncertain and probabilistic calculation of future states is impossible.

    “The trouble is that the world is highly uncertain and this kind of calculation is impossible.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Firms can and do take actions to reduce the uncertainty of their environment.

    “Naturally, firms can -and do -do things to reduce the uncertainty of their environment.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisenone given

    Productive capabilities have been treated as black-box concepts.

    “But it is also because productive capabilities have been treated as black-box concepts.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The continuous development of collective capabilities through learning drives productivity increase, creates employment, and sustains redistributive institutions such as the welfare state.

    “The continuous development of these collective capabilities through learning is what drives productivity increase, creates employment, and sustains redistributive institutions such as the welfare state.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    The US aircraft industry, the Japanese mainframe computer industry, and the Finnish electronics industry are prominent examples of industries that have benefited hugely from government procurement preferential treatment.

    “The US aircraft industry, the Japanese mainframe computer industry, and the Finnish electronics industry are some of the most prominent examples of industries that have benefited hugely from such treatment.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Firms try to control the tastes of consumers by spending money on advertising and brand building.

    “Last but not least, firms try (and often succeed) to control the tastes of consumers by spending money on advertising and brand building.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    By developing a joint vision and credible expectations among private companies around future public investments, the government reduces uncertainty faced by companies and enables the creation of new markets.

    “By developing a joint vision as well as credible expectations among private companies around future public investments, not only does the government reduce the uncertainty faced by companies but it also enables the creation of new markets.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Premisereasoning

    Productive capabilities are discussed without much appreciation of the fact that innovation is exactly about discovering different technological and organizational solutions to problems arising in particular production processes.

    “Secondly, productive capabilities are discussed without much appreciation of the fact that innovation is exactly about discovering different technological and organizational solutions to problems arising in particular production processes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Policies to reduce uncertainty can fail.

    “Of course, policies to reduce uncertainty can fail.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Firms can reduce uncertainty by forming cartels, although cartels are not easy to form and maintain due to the free-rider problem.

    “Another common method is to form cartels, although they are not easy to form and maintain due to the well-known 'free-rider' problem.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisereasoning

    Productive capabilities are discussed without much reference to the realities of concrete production processes.

    “First of all, productive capabilities are discussed without much reference to the 'realities' of concrete production processes -that is, how the deployment of productive capabilities is affected by things like properties of materials used, the scales and time horizons of the production process, bottlenecks in the process, etc.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Industrial policy measures that try to reduce uncertainty run the risk of prematurely ending competition between different technological standards and/or backing a wrong technology with lower innovation potential in the long run.

    “Especially in relation to long-term technological evolution, policy makers should be aware that industrial policy measures which try to reduce uncertainty run the risk of prematurely ending the competition between different technological standards and/or backing what turns out to be a 'wrong' technology with lower innovation potential in the long run.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The debate around digitalization is dominated by the idea of a leap into a post-industrial age, without the realization that manufacturing processes and the materiality of production will still matter in such an economy.

    “For example, the debate around digitalization is dominated by the idea of a leap into a post-industrial age, without the realization that manufacturing processes and the materiality of production will still matter in such an economy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    In the production-focused view, learning is a collective and cumulative process embedded in existing production structures, involving continuous and interdependent changes in agents' capabilities, organizational configurations, and investments in material assets.

    “In this production-focused view, learning is a collective and cumulative process embedded in existing production structures, involving continuous and interdependent changes in agents' capabilities, organizational configurations, and investments in material assets, including machinery and infrastructure (Andreoni, 2014;Chang, 2010;Lazonick, 1990Lazonick, , 2009;;Penrose, 1959;Richardson, 1972).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Andreoni, 2014 source
    • cites Chang, 2010

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Lazonick, 1990

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    It is claimed that robotics and automation will destroy a dramatic number of jobs in the near future, without realizing that firms have been learning how to effectively deploy automated solutions to complement, rather than simply replace, labour.

    “For another example, it is claimed that robotics and automation will destroy a dramatic number of jobs in the near future, without realizing that firms have been learning how to effectively deploy automated solutions to complement, rather than simply replace, labour.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    In this view, once new technologies are developed, they can be deployed almost automatically by any firm with more than the minimum absorption capacity.

    “In this view, once new technologies are developed, they can be deployed almost automatically by any firm with more than the minimum absorption capacity.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    In the current debate on industrial policy, the dominant view is that innovation is mainly generated by 'R&D units'.

    “In the current debate on industrial policy, the dominant view is that innovation is mainly generated by 'R&D units', such as public research institutes (e.g., universities) and the R&D (not the production) departments of companies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    The increasing specialization of firms in a limited number of production tasks and/or production of intermediate goods leads to the expansion of the market for intermediate goods and, in turn, for additional/complementary investments.

    “The increasing specialization of firms in a limited number of production tasks and/or production of intermediate goods leads to the expansion of the market for intermediate goods and, in turn, for additional/complementary investments.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Learning in production is mainly triggered by three supply-side mechanisms and two demand-side mechanisms, and involves reconfiguration of production at the shop-floor level as much as at the level of the industrial ecosystem.

    “Learning in production is mainly triggered by three supply-side (or technology-pull) mechanisms and two demand-side (market-pull) mechanisms, and involves reconfiguration of production at the shop-floor level as much as at the level of the industrial ecosystem (Andreoni, 2014(Andreoni, , 2018;;Rosenberg, 1979Rosenberg, , 1982)).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Andreoni, 2014 source
    • cites Andreoni, 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Rosenberg, 1979 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Overvalued currencies may be created by the 'Dutch disease' or by the bias of policies towards the financial sector.

    “Overvalued currencies may be created by the 'Dutch disease' (a sudden inflow of export earnings from a natural resource bonanza that is not countered by macroeconomic policy) or by the bias of policies towards the financial sector.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The merchants operate as countercyclical forces absorbing stocks in response to excess supply, and releasing stocks in the face of excessive demand.

    “The banking sector enables capital investments which, in turn, generate the 'savingsadditional investments-savings' dynamics, while the merchants operate as countercyclical forces absorbing stocks in response to excess supply, and releasing stocks in the face of excessive demand.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kaldor, 1972 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The negative impacts of high interest rates on the manufacturing sector have been seen in countries like Brazil and South Africa in the last couple of decades, with real interest rates frequently being around 10-12 per cent and, as a consequence, few firms being able to borrow to invest.

    “We have vividly seen the negative impacts of high interest rates on the manufacturing sector in countries like Brazil and South Africa in the last couple of decades, with real interest rates frequently being around 10-12 per cent and, as a consequence, few firms being able to borrow to invest.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    High real interest rates discourage investments in general, but have more negative impacts on investments in the manufacturing sector, where the requirement for borrowing is greater due to higher capital requirements, than in other sectors.

    “High (real) interest rates discourage investments in general, but have more negative impacts on investments in the manufacturing sector, where the requirement for borrowing is greater due to higher capital requirements, than in other sectors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    According to Kaldor, for the income multiplier and the investment accelerator mechanisms to be effective, the banking system and the merchants have to play critical roles.

    “According to Kaldor, for the income multiplier and the investment accelerator mechanisms to be effective, the banking system as well as what he calls the 'merchants' have to play critical roles.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kaldor, 1972 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    In the management of foreign demand (the foreign trade multiplier), the management of the exchange rate becomes crucial.

    “And in the management of foreign demand -the so-called 'foreign trade multiplier' -the management of the exchange rate becomes crucial.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    In the last couple of decades, much emphasis has been put on 'smart' industrial policies that encourage knowledge generation as against traditional policies that provide protection and subsidies.

    “In the last couple of decades, much emphasis has been put on 'smart' industrial policies that encourage knowledge generation (investments in education and R&D), as against those clumsy, traditional policies that provide protection and subsidies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    It is very difficult to have lively investments when interest rate policy is such that firms cannot make enough profits to repay even the interest on their loans.

    “However, it is very difficult to have lively investments when interest rate policy is such that firms cannot make enough profits to repay even the interest on their loans.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    According to Kaldor, the absorption of a continuously rising volume of production depends on additional incomes resulting from the accumulation of capital combined with the induced character of such investment.

    “However, according to Kaldor (1972Kaldor ( : 1249-50)-50), the absorption of a continuously rising volume of production depends on 'additional incomes resulting from the accumulation of capital (in other words, from investment expenditures) combined with the induced character of such investment'.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kaldor, 1972: 1249-50 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Conflict management is more important for industrial policy than for other policies, and ultimately defines the political economy of industrialization.

    “Therefore, conflict management is more important for industrial policy than for other policies, and ultimately defines the political economy of industrialization (for a review of seminal contributions see Andreoni and Chang, 2019;Storm, 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Andreoni and Chang, 2019;Storm, 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Premisereasoning

    Control imposed on imports of luxury consumption goods by the governments of Japan and Korea in the earlier days of their economic development enabled these countries to invest more by relaxing their balance of payments constraints which, when combined with their highly selective industrial policies, enabled the investment and thus the expansion of selected industries.

    “One important example is the control imposed on the imports of luxury consumption goods by the governments of Japan and Korea in the earlier days of their economic development -in the 1950s and 1960s in Japan and between the 1950s and the mid-1980s in Korea (on this, see Chang, 1998).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chang, 1998

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    A clear announcement of policy priorities and their justifications in advance through long-term national visions, 5-year plans, or long-term sectoral strategies can help reduce the conflicts arising out of industrial policy.

    “A clear announcement of policy priorities and their justifications (why the government is backing particular sectors, technologies or even individual firms) in advance -through long-term national visions, 5-year plans, or long-term sectoral strategies -can help reduce the conflicts arising out of industrial policy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    A tight monetary policy is likely to favour capitalists over workers, as capitalists can more easily counter the impacts by raising their prices, although some small capitalists in highly competitive markets may not be able to do that, while some organized workers may be able to defend themselves by raising their wages.

    “For example, a tight monetary policy is likely to favour capitalists over workers, as capitalists can more easily counter the impacts by raising their prices -although some small capitalists in highly competitive markets may not be able to do that, while some organized workers may be able to defend themselves by raising their wages.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Industrial policy may be the most prone to open conflicts, as it tends to be more explicitly selective than other policies; it inevitably chooses between sectors, technologies, or even individual firms in the same industry.

    “Having said all of this, it has to be admitted that industrial policy may be the most prone to open conflicts, as it tends to be more explicitly selective than other policies; it inevitably chooses between sectors, technologies, or even individual firms in the same industry.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    If the workers in a sector resist changes because they own sector-specific skills, they will disrupt production in the short run (thereby increasing the chance of bankruptcy of their firms) and delay the inevitable restructuring in the long run.

    “Likewise, if the workers in a sector resist changes because they own sector-specific skills, they will disrupt production in the short run (thereby increasing the chance of bankruptcy of their firms) and, more importantly, delay the inevitable restructuring in the long run.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Changes in fiscal policy require the government to make explicit deals with representatives of different groups of winners and losers or at least to present its fiscal policy with a high degree of obscurity so that people cannot easily tell who the winners and the losers are.

    “Given this, changes in fiscal policy require the government to make explicit deals with representatives of different groups of winners and losers or at least to present its fiscal policy with a high degree of obscurity so that people cannot easily tell who the winners and the losers are.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Premisereasoning

    In the case of industrial policy, its 'inclusiveness' depends on the extent to which it constructs new (or steers existing) 'productive coalitions' that are willing to invest in the enhancement of collective productive capabilities, including the welfare state, and are willing to engage in a more equal distribution of the value generated through these investments.

    “In the case of industrial policy, its 'inclusiveness' depends on the extent to which it constructs new (or steers existing) 'productive coalitions' that are willing to invest in the enhancement of collective productive capabilities, including the welfare state (see below) and are, over time, willing to engage in a more equal distribution of the value generated through these investments.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Social insurance measures are not industrial policy measures in the conventional sense, but they can play very important roles in the processes of structural change that characterize the process of industrial development.

    “These are not industrial policy measures in the conventional sense, but they can play very important roles in the processes of structural change that characterize the process of industrial development.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    All policies inevitably involve conflicts, at least in latent forms.

    “Being political, all policies inevitably involve conflicts, at least in 4 In the literature some scholars use the concept of rents to refer to those income-or valuecapture opportunities which are created by policies or regulations when they allocate some entities or groups the right to do something, e.g. an import licence, a subsidy, preferential access to credit, etc. latent forms.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: All economic policies are in the end political actions, in the sense that they are partial; they favour one group over another, one ideology over another, or even one culture over another.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Successful implementation of any policy requires management of the conflicts that it causes and/or of existing latent conflicts that it unintentionally stirs up.

    “Therefore, successful implementation of any policy requires management of the conflicts that it causes and/or of existing latent conflicts that it unintentionally stirs up.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisereasoning

    Depending on the way in which conflicts are addressed, policies have different distributional effects.

    “And depending on the way in which conflicts are addressed (and eventually resolved, or not), policies have different distributional effects.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Premisereasoning

    'Leaving things to the market' is a particular type of conflict management strategy.

    “It is important here to note that 'leaving things to the market' is also a very particular type of conflict management strategy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    When the adjustments that need to be made by the losers are large, leaving things to the market may create a lot of conflicts, and therefore may be viable only when the state can prevent the losers from organizing countervailing actions, such as industrial strikes or capital flight.

    “When the adjustments that need to be made by the losers are large, leaving things to the market may create a lot of conflicts, and therefore may be viable only when the state can prevent the losers from organizing countervailing actions, such as industrial strikes (if the losers are workers in particular industries) or capital flight (if the injured party are the wealthy).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Such announcements can deflect accusations of corruption, clientelism, vote seeking, etc., to a substantial degree, although they cannot deny the accusation of 'favouritism' per se.

    “While such announcements cannot deny the accusation of 'favouritism' per se, they can deflect accusations of corruption, clientelism, vote seeking, etc., to a substantial degree.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Industrial policy measures will become politically even more acceptable if they are announced together with explicit performance targets, evaluation criteria and, where appropriate, a long-term plan to phase them out.

    “Industrial policy measures will become politically even more acceptable if they are announced together with explicit performance targets, evaluation criteria and, where appropriate, a long-term plan to phase them out (e.g., infant industry protection or temporary technological upgrading programmes).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Limited liability and modern bankruptcy law encourage risk taking by capitalists ex ante and reduce their resistances to restructuring ex post.

    “These measures not only encourage risk taking by capitalists ex ante, but they also reduce their resistances to restructuring ex post.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Among neoliberal scholars, under the mantra 'you need to import if you want to export', GVCs have been used to re-emphasize the benefits of international trade and the need for more trade liberalization.

    “Among neoliberal scholars, under the mantra, 'you need to import if you want to export', GVCs have been used to re-emphasize the benefits of international trade and, thus, the need for more trade liberalization.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    The global production landscape has been profoundly reshaped by three interdependent processes involving changes in the global organization of production, the relationships between different sectors of the economy, and the nature of technology systems.

    “The global production landscape has been profoundly reshaped by three interdependent processes involving changes in: (1) the global organization of production; (2) the relationships between different sectors of the economy; and (3) the nature of technology systems.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Even the majority of developmentalist scholars have welcomed the opportunity offered to developing countries by the GVC-based industrialization model in overcoming the highly uncertain and capital-demanding task of developing new sectors ab initio.

    “Surprisingly, even the majority of the developmentalist scholars have welcomed the opportunity offered to developing countries by the GVC-based industrialization model in overcoming the highly uncertain and capital-demanding task of developing new sectors ab initio.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    By ensuring a floor to living standards, the welfare state reduces the incentive for workers to resist restructuring of the industries in which they work.

    “By ensuring a floor to living standards, the welfare state reduces the incentive for workers to resist restructuring of the industries in which they work.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Limited liability caps the loss to what has been invested, thereby reducing the risk of business failure leading to personal ruin.

    “Limited liability caps the loss to what has been invested, thereby reducing the risk of business failure leading to personal ruin, as it did before the late-19th century.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    The welfare state is the most important social insurance mechanism for workers.

    “The welfare state is the most important social insurance mechanism for workers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    The relationships between these three processes and their combined impacts on accumulation, value creation and value capture dynamics remain underexplored.

    “While each of these issues has received significant amounts of attention, the relationships between them and their combined impacts on accumulation, value creation and value capture dynamics remain underexplored.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Not only China but also South Korea and Taiwan started their industrialization by linking (backwards) to global supply chains in electronics and other sectors.

    “Despite the fact that not only China but also South Korea and Taiwan started their industrialization by linking (backwards) to global supply chains in electronics and other sectors (Amsden, 1989;Chang, 1993;Lee, 2013;Wade, 1990), the industrial policy debate has only recently recognized the different opportunities and challenges that the evolving pattern of global division of labour is posing to”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Amsden, 1989

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Chang, 1993

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Wade, 1990 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Unequal treaties introduced the most favoured nation concept, enabling stronger countries to bully weaker ones collectively.

    “These treaties also introduced the concept of 'most favoured nation', which enabled all the countries that signed an (unequal) treaty with a weaker country to get a more favourable treatment, if one of them manages to extract it, thus allowing the stronger countries to bully the weaker ones collectively.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chang, 2002: 51-53 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Some policy measures have no international restrictions because no international consensus has evolved around them.

    “Some policy measures have no international restrictions because no international consensus has evolved around them.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    The 1990s saw rapid spread of investment treaties.

    “The 1990s also saw the rapid spread of investment treaties.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Many poorer WTO members have bound virtually none of their tariffs, while many who have bound have done so at quite high levels.

    “As a result, many poorer members of the WTO have bound virtually none of their tariffs, while many of those who have bound their tariffs have done so at quite high levels.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chang et al., 2016: Ch. 5, section 5.1

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Targeted infrastructural investments, subsidies for worker training or R&D, government procurement programmes, tax incentives for physical investments, and strategic use of state-owned enterprises are examples of domestic policies.

    “Targeted infrastructural investments, subsidies for (or public provision of) worker training or R&D, government procurement programmes, tax incentives for physical investments, and the strategic use of state-owned enterprises are only some of the more prominent examples of 'domestic' policies.6”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [6] 6. Andreoni, A. (2019) 'A Generalised Linkage Approach to Local Production Systems Development in the Era of Global Value Chains, with special reference to Africa', in R. Kanbur, A. Noman and J. Stiglitz (eds) The Quality of Growth in Africa, pp. 264- 94. New York: Columbia University Press. source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Ambiguities in certain rules or their application can create further scope for pushing certain policies until they are detected or challenged.

    “Also, ambiguities in certain rules or their application can create further scope for pushing certain policies until they are detected or challenged.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    These treaties lasted well into the 20th century for some countries.

    “These treaties lasted well into the 20th century for some countries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chang, 2002: 51-53 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    While restrictions on industrial policy by developing countries have strengthened in the last couple of decades, industrial policy has not become impossible.

    “To sum up, while the restrictions on industrial policy by developing countries have become strengthened in the last couple of decades, this does not mean that industrial policy has become impossible.7”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [7] 7. Andreoni, A. and Chang, H-J. (2017) 'Bringing Production Transformation and Jobs Creation Back to Development', Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society 10(1): 173-87.

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    As a result of financialization, corporate governance and investment decisions of these companies can be captured by short-term oriented financial interests, leading to declining investments and missed opportunities for innovation (predatory value extraction).

    “As a result of financialization, corporate governance and investment decisions of these companies can be captured by short-term oriented financial interests, leading to declining investments and missed opportunities for innovationwhat some have called 'predatory value extraction' (Lazonick and Shin, 2019).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Lazonick and Shin, 2019 source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Latest industrial policies launched by leading industrial nations, like Industry 4.0 in Germany and Made in China 2025, build on these foundational principles and have major global implications.

    “The latest industrial policies launched by leading industrial nations, like 'Industry 4.0' in Germany and 'Made in China 2025', build on these foundational principles and, while being nationally focused, have major global implications.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Following the Third World Debt Crisis of 1982, IMF-World Bank Structural Adjustment Programmes emphasizing fiscal austerity, trade liberalization, deregulation and privatization were rolled out across the developing world.

    “Following the Third World Debt Crisis of 1982, IMF-World Bank Structural Adjustment Programmes -which emphasized fiscal austerity, trade liberalization, deregulation and privatization -were rolled out across the developing world.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The last decade has witnessed a strong resurgence of interest in industrial policy, though the debate has quickly entered a potential diminishing-returns territory, as it usually involves revisiting old debate issues using new terminologies.

    “The last decade has witnessed a strong resurgence of interest in industrial policy, though the debate has quickly entered a potential diminishing-returns territory, as it usually involves revisiting the issues of the old debate using new terminologies (Andreoni and Chang, 2019).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Andreoni and Chang, 2019 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The need to address long-term grand challenges like climate change calls for massive and coordinated investments in energy systems, production practices and mobility.

    “Similarly, the need to address long-term grand challenges, like climate change, calls for massive and coordinated investments in energy systems, production practices and mobility.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Another few years may be needed for accumulation of damage that makes a subsidy eligible for a WTO dispute.

    “And indeed, another few years may be needed for the accumulation of the damage that makes it eligible for a WTO dispute.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    From the 1990s until the global financial crisis of 2008, the industrial policy debate remained constrained by ideological battles, and important opportunities for research and policy development were lost in many countries.

    “From the 1990s until the global financial crisis of 2008, the industrial policy debate remained constrained by ideological battles, and important opportunities for research and policy development were lost in many countries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Achievement of these global transformations depends on micro-level structural changes in productive organizations and government interventions in creating new worlds of production and managing industrial and social restructuring.

    “The achievement of these global transformations still depends on micro-level structural changes in productive organizations and government interventions in creating new worlds of production as well as managing industrial and social restructuring.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationnone given

    The analysis focused on the distinctive features of a new form of imperialism.

    “The analysis focused on the distinctive features of what we can call a new form of imperialism.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    The new global regime of trade embodied in the GATT put only mild restrictions on the trade policy of developing countries, with the choice not to sign up to agreements they did not want (plurilateralism).

    “The new global regime of trade, embodied in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), put only mild restrictions on the trade policy of developing countries, with the choice not to sign up to the agreements that they don't want (so-called plurilateralism).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Within this relatively permissive framework, the need for infant industry protection and other industrial policy measures was widely recognized, although free trade ideology reasserted itself soon enough.

    “Within this relatively permissive framework, the need for infant industry protection and other industrial policy measures was widely recognized, although the free trade ideology reasserted itself soon enough.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The collapse of the Soviet bloc in the late 1980s ushered in an era of free market triumphalism, further strengthening the ideological dominance of free market, free trade economics worldwide.

    “The collapse of the Soviet bloc in the late 1980s ushered in an era of free market triumphalism, further strengthening the ideological dominance of free market, free trade economics worldwide.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The problem of committing resources in specialized assets has become even more critical with recent technological changes that have made technological cycles shorter, and with the opportunities and challenges posed by digitalization.

    “In fact, the problem of committing resources in specialized assets has become even more critical with recent technological changes that have made technological cycles shorter, and with the opportunities (and challenges) posed by digitalization.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    With the end of the unequal treaties by the 1920s and the subsequent wave of decolonization between the 1940s and the 1970s, the imperialist countries significantly loosened their grip on the developing countries.

    “With the end of the unequal treaties by the 1920s and the subsequent wave of decolonization between the 1940s and the 1970s, the imperialist countries significantly loosened their grip on the developing countries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Recent developments in the real world and in academia have opened up space for a more balanced, pragmatic debate on industrial policy.

    “The debate has often been ideologically highly charged, but recent developments in the real world and in academia have opened up space for a more balanced, pragmatic debate.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Since the 18th century, the debate surrounding industrial policy has been one of the most important in the political economy of development.

    “Since the 18th century, the debate surrounding industrial policy has been one of the most important in the political economy of development.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisereasoning

    These shifts were institutionally consolidated in the 1990s.

    “These shifts were institutionally consolidated in the 1990s.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Despite differences across countries, the three sets of neglected issues focused on are and will remain of paramount importance.

    “Despite differences across countries in terms of their stages and levels of industrialization, their macroeconomic regimes, and their political economy settings, the three set of neglected issues we have focused on are and will remain of paramount importance.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    These three global transformations are establishing new interdependences across national industrial policies, in some cases leading to unexpected and unintended consequences.

    “These three global transformations are establishing new interdependences across national industrial policies, in some cases even leading to unexpected and unintended consequences.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    In 1994, NAFTA, the first free trade agreement including developed countries and a developing country, was signed.

    “In 1994, the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), the first free trade agreement including developed countries and a developing country, was signed.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The main beneficiaries of the trade war between the US and China may be countries like Vietnam and Ethiopia, possible relocation destinations for US firms currently operating in China.

    “The main beneficiaries of the trade war between the US and China may be countries like Vietnam and Ethiopia, possible relocation destinations for US firms currently operating in China.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Some companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Airbus, and Boeing have acquired unprecedented market power and enormous resources, many times larger than government industrial policy budgets.

    “Similarly, with the emergence of trillion-dollar companies like Apple, Amazon or Microsoft and increasing concentration in high-value manufacturing sectors like aerospace (Airbus and Boeing), some companies have acquired an unprecedented market power but, even more importantly, have enormous amount of resources at their disposal, many times larger than government industrial policy budgets.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Under GATS, countries are required to accept restrictions on their FDI regulation only in sectors where they have made commitments; most countries, especially developing countries, have made only limited commitments in service industries.

    “As for the GATS, countries are required to accept restrictions on their FDI regulation only in sectors in which they have made 'commitments' -most countries, especially developing countries, have made only a limited number of commitments in relation to the service industries.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The WTO demanded all member countries sign up to all agreements (single undertaking), which were more restrictive than GATT and covered new areas like TRIPs and TRIMs.

    “In contrast to the plurilateral principle of the GATT, the WTO demanded that all member countries sign up to all the agreements (the so-called 'single undertaking' provision), which were not only more restrictive than those under the GATT but also covered new areas, most notably intellectual property rights (TRIPs) and regulations on foreign investment (TRIMs).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    NAFTA contained chapter 11 on the ISDS mechanism, allowing corporations to directly sue host governments for damaging their profits through regulation.

    “The NAFTA also contained an important new provision, known as chapter 11, on the Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism, which took the unprecedented step of allowing corporations to directly sue host governments for damaging their profits through regulation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    In 1995, following the conclusion of the Uruguay Round, the GATT was transformed into the WTO.

    “In 1995, following the conclusion of the Uruguay Round of trade talks, the GATT was transformed into the WTO.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
105 of 105
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    High interest rates disproportionately damage capital-intensive industries.

    “Interest policy may not be an 'industrial policy' issue in the conventional sense, but it has important bearings on industrial policy insofar as high interest rates disproportionately damage capital-intensive industries.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    All economic policies are in the end political actions, in the sense that they are partial; they favour one group over another, one ideology over another, or even one culture over another.

    “All economic policies are in the end political actions, in the sense that they are partial; they favour one group over another, one ideology over another, or even one culture over another.4”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    TNCs are extremely powerful organizations, whose sizes can be comparable to the GDPs of many developing countries.

    “First, TNCs are extremely powerful organizations, whose sizes can be comparable to the GDPs of many developing countries.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    All economic policies have an international power dimension.

    “All economic policies have an international power dimension.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Public investments tend to play a catalytic role for private investments (crowding-in effect).

    “Given that public investments tend to play a catalytic role for private investments (crowding-in effect), the reduced capacity of government to make investments (or support private investments through industrial policy), when combined with the financialization of corporations, has pushed economies towards a spiral of dis-investment and de-accumulation.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Investments mostly rely on imported capital goods.

    “In these countries, once such constraints are relaxed, there can be more investments (as investments mostly rely on imported capital goods).”
6 of 6

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Conclusion counts three neglected issues, but the paper names four

    Minor

    The conclusion says the paper focused on three sets of neglected issues, while the introduction explicitly lists four: commitment under uncertainty, learning in production, macroeconomic management, and conflict management.

  • Conflicting end dates for unequal treaties

    Minor

    One passage says unequal treaties were imposed through the mid-20th century; another says they had ended by the 1920s.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 8

  1. Andreoni A., 2017, Bringing Production Transformation and Jobs Creation Back to Development, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 10, 173
  2. Chang H‐J., 2011, 2010 Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics Global: Lessons from East Asia and the Global Financial Crisis, 83
  3. Gamble A., 1987, The Free Market and the Strong State
  4. Hirschman A.O., 1977, A Generalized Linkage Approach to Economic Development with Special Reference to Staples, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 25, 67
  5. Lazonick W., 2009, Sustainable Prosperity in the New Economy?
  6. Pisano G., 2013, Producing Prosperity
  7. Singh A., 1971, Take‐overs
  8. UNCTAD, 2016, Trade and Development Report 2016. Structural Transformation for Inclusive and Sustained Growth

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Chang, H., & Andreoni, A.
Venue
Development and Change
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2020-01-11
Volume
51
Issue
2
Pages
324-351
ISSN
  • 0012-155X (ISSN-L)
  • 1467-7660
OpenAlex
W2999723559
Cited by
455
References
106
Citations by year
2026: 52 · 2025: 65 · 2024: 89 · 2023: 76 · 2022: 47 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 1 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 3
FWCI
164.07
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Development and Change (publishedVersion)
  • SOAS Research Online (SOAS University of London) (acceptedVersion)
  • SOAS Research Online (SOAS University of London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion)
  • Apollo
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Asian Industrial and Economic Development
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Economy and Marxism
Keywords
industrial policy, uncertainty, demand management, macroeconomic regulation, conflict management, global value chains, financialization, new imperialism, policy interventions

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-11.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-11.

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