Bayesian estimation of partial population continuity using ancient DNA and spatially explicit simulations
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Abstract
The retrieval of ancient DNA from osteological material provides direct evidence of human genetic diversity in the past. Ancient DNA samples are often used to investigate whether there was population continuity in the settlement history of an area. Methods based on the serial coalescent algorithm have been developed to test whether the population continuity hypothesis can be statistically rejected by analysing DNA samples from the same region but of different ages. Rejection of this hypothesis is indicative of a large genetic shift, possibly due to immigration occurring between two sampling times. However, this approach is only able to reject a model of full continuity model (a total absence of genetic input from outside), but admixture between local and immigrant populations may lead to partial continuity. We have recently developed a method to test for population continuity that explicitly considers the spatial and temporal dynamics of populations. Here, we extended this approach to estimate the proportion of genetic continuity between two populations, using ancient genetic samples. We applied our original approach to the question of the Neolithic transition in Central Europe. Our results confirmed the rejection of full continuity, but our approach represents an important step forward by estimating the relative contribution of immigrant farmers and of local hunter‐gatherers to the final Central European Neolithic genetic pool. Furthermore, we show that a substantial proportion of genes brought by the farmers in this region were assimilated from other hunter‐gatherer populations along the way from Anatolia, which was not detectable by previous continuity tests. Our approach is also able to jointly estimate demographic parameters, as we show here by finding both low density and low migration rate for pre‐Neolithic hunter‐gatherers. It provides a useful tool for the analysis of the numerous ancient DNA data sets that are currently being produced for many different species.
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In Europe, a prominent genetic transition occurred during the spread of early Neolithic farmers, when they partially replaced Paleolithic/Mesolithic hunter-gatherers.
“In Europe, a prominent genetic transition occurred during the spread of early Neolithic farmers, when they partially replaced Paleolithic/Mesolithic hunter-gatherers [i.e., the so-called Neolithic transition (33, 34, 35)].”
From Past human expansions shaped the spatial pattern of Neanderthal ancestry (2023) · cites this paper as [34]
During the European Neolithic transition, farmers coming from southeast Europe and Anatolia partially replaced hunter-gatherers.
“This includes the European Neolithic transition, when farmers coming from southeast Europe and Anatolia partially replaced hunter-gatherers (32–35), as well as the Bronze Age, with the spread of pastoralist populations from Eurasian steppes (36–38).”
From Past human expansions shaped the spatial pattern of Neanderthal ancestry (2023) · cites this paper as [34]
This corresponds to the model of population expansion with partial replacement supported by paleogenomic studies for the Neolithic.
“This corresponds to the model of population expansion with partial replacement supported by paleogenomic studies for the Neolithic (32–34).”
From Past human expansions shaped the spatial pattern of Neanderthal ancestry (2023) · cites this paper as [34]
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Self-citationInvestigating population continuity and ghost admixture among ancient genomes
McKenna, J., Bernhardsson, C., Waxman, D., Jakobsson, M., & Sjödin, P. (2024) · Human Population Genetics and Genomics · doi:10.47248/hpgg2404030009 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
- Authors
- Silva, N. M., Rio, J., Kreutzer, S., Papageorgopoulou, C., & Currat, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Geneva (CH)
- AGP Lab Department of Genetics & Evolution – Anthropology Unit University of Geneva Geneva Switzerland
- Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (DE)
- Democritus University of Thrace (GR)
- Corresponding author
- Currat, Mathias
- Venue
- Evolutionary Applications
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2018-07-03
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 1642-1655
- ISSN
- 1752-4563 (ISSN-L)
- 1752-4571
- PMC
- PMC6183456
- OpenAlex
- W2806576161
- Cited by
- 11
- References
- 79
- Citations by year
- 2025: 1 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 0.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Evolutionary Applications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (acceptedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (BU 1403/6‐1)
- Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (31003A_156853)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Forensic and Genetic Research
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic diversity and population structure
- Social Sciences › Anthropology › Pleistocene-Era Hominins and Archaeology
- Keywords
- population continuity, ancient DNA, admixture, Neolithic transition, Central Europe, hunter-gatherers, farmer migration, Anatolia, spatially explicit simulation, Bayesian estimation, demographic parameters, migration rate
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