The economic impact of space weather: where do we stand?
Open accessAbstract
Space weather describes the way in which the Sun, and conditions in space more generally, impact human activity and technology both in space and on the ground. It is now well understood that space weather represents a significant threat to infrastructure resilience, and is a source of risk that is wide-ranging in its impact and the pathways by which this impact may occur. Although space weather is growing rapidly as a field, work rigorously assessing the overall economic cost of space weather appears to be in its infancy. Here, we provide an initial literature review to gather and assess the quality of any published assessments of space weather impacts and socioeconomic studies. Generally speaking, there is a good volume of scientific peer-reviewed literature detailing the likelihood and statistics of different types of space weather phenomena. These phenomena all typically exhibit "power-law" behavior in their severity. The literature on documented impacts is not as extensive, with many case studies, but few statistical studies. The literature on the economic impacts of space weather is rather sparse and not as well developed when compared to the other sections, most probably due to the somewhat limited data that are available from end-users. The major risk is attached to power distribution systems and there is disagreement as to the severity of the technological footprint. This strongly controls the economic impact. Consequently, urgent work is required to better quantify the risk of future space weather events.
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A current-day Carrington Event would likely cause widespread electrical failure and disruption lasting at least multiple months, potentially years.
“A current day Carrington Event would likely lead to widespread electrical failure and disruption for multiple months at minimum, potentially years (Eastwood et al., 2017; Loper, 2019; Ritter et al., 2020).”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Eastwood et al., 2017
Section 3.2 (Power) describes months-to-years outages as assumptions in severe-impact scenarios, but says those assumptions are not universally accepted. It reports that the more likely impact is grid collapse from voltage instability, with outages measured in hours to days rather than months. This contradicts the claim that disruption would likely last multiple months at minimum. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk
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“Even with high uncertainties of potential infrastructural impacts (Royal Academy of Engineering, 2013; National Science Technology Council, 2019) and the nature of the event itself (Liu et al., 2014; Pulkkinen et al., 2015; Eastwood et al., 2017), the limited evidence so far indicates that SAI infrastructure would be…”
BackgroundRitter, S., Rotko, D., Halpin, S., Nawal, A., Farias, A., Patel, K., Diggewadi, A., & Hill, H. (2020) · New Space · doi:10.1089/space.2019.0026 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Carrington-class events as a great filter for electronic civilizations in the drake equation
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- Authors
- Eastwood, J. P., Biffis, E., Hapgood, M. A., Green, L., Bisi, M. M., Bentley, R. D., Wicks, R., McKinnell, L. ‐., Gibbs, M., & Burnett, C.
- Affiliations
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Georgia State University (US)
- Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (GB)
- Mullard Space Science Laboratory, Holmbury St. Mary Dorking Surrey UK
- University College London (GB)
- South African National Space Agency (ZA)
- Met Office (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Eastwood, J. P.
- Venue
- Risk Analysis
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2017-02
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 206-218
- ISSN
- 0272-4332 (ISSN-L)
- 1539-6924
- OpenAlex
- W2591123938
- Cited by
- 310
- References
- 156
- Citations by year
- 2026: 42 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 34 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 38 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 24 · 2017: 11
- FWCI
- 13.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Risk Analysis (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Northumbria Research Link (Northumbria University) (acceptedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (acceptedVersion)
- Science and Technology Facilities Council (submittedVersion)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- U.K. Space Agency International Partnership Space Programme (L2796)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Civil and Structural Engineering › Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
- Keywords
- space weather, economic impact, socio-economic impacts, distribution networks, infrastructure resilience, risk quantification, solar activity, case studies
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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