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Evaluating the risk of ovarian cancer before surgery using the ADNEX model to differentiate between benign, borderline, early and advanced stage invasive, and secondary metastatic tumours: prospective multicentre diagnostic study
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVES: To develop a risk prediction model to preoperatively discriminate between benign, borderline, stage I invasive, stage II-IV invasive, and secondary metastatic ovarian tumours. DESIGN: Observational diagnostic study using prospectively collected clinical and ultrasound data. SETTING: 24 ultrasound centres in 10 countries. PARTICIPANTS: Women with an ovarian (including para-ovarian and tubal) mass and who underwent a standardised ultrasound examination before surgery. The model was developed on 3506 patients recruited between 1999 and 2007, temporally validated on 2403 patients recruited between 2009 and 2012, and then updated on all 5909 patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Histological classification and surgical staging of the mass. RESULTS: The Assessment of Different NEoplasias in the adneXa (ADNEX) model contains three clinical and six ultrasound predictors: age, serum CA-125 level, type of centre (oncology centres v other hospitals), maximum diameter of lesion, proportion of solid tissue, more than 10 cyst locules, number of papillary projections, acoustic shadows, and ascites. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the classic discrimination between benign and malignant tumours was 0.94 (0.93 to 0.95) on temporal validation. The AUC was 0.85 for benign versus borderline, 0.92 for benign versus stage I cancer, 0.99 for benign versus stage II-IV cancer, and 0.95 for benign versus secondary metastatic. AUCs between malignant subtypes varied between 0.71 and 0.95, with an AUC of 0.75 for borderline versus stage I cancer and 0.82 for stage II-IV versus secondary metastatic. Calibration curves showed that the estimated risks were accurate. CONCLUSIONS: The ADNEX model discriminates well between benign and malignant tumours and offers fair to excellent discrimination between four types of ovarian malignancy. The use of ADNEX has the potential to improve triage and management decisions and so reduce morbidity and mortality associated with adnexal pathology.
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“The ADNEX model, developed by the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) consortium (authors BVC and DT are part of this consortium), preoperatively estimates the probability of malignancy in women with an ovarian tumour who are scheduled for surgery. 31”
From Evaluation of performance measures in predictive artificial intelligence models to support medical decisions: overview and guidance (2025) · cites this paper as [31]
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“ADNEX was developed on the data from 5909 individuals recruited between 1999 and 2012 in 24 secondary and tertiary care centres from 10 countries (Italy, Belgium, Sweden, Czech Republic, Poland, France, United Kingdom, China, Spain, and Canada).”
From Evaluation of performance measures in predictive artificial intelligence models to support medical decisions: overview and guidance (2025) · cites this paper as [31]
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Sundar, S. S., Agarwal, R., Davenport, C. F., Scandrett, K., Johnson, S., Sengupta, P. P., Vikram, R., Kwong, F. L., Mallett, S., Rick, C., et al. (2024) · The Lancet Oncology · doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(24)00406-6 · Cited by 41
Nougaret, S., Lakhman, Y., Molinari, N., Feier, D. S., Scelzo, C., Vargas, H. A., Sosa, R. E., Hricak, H., Soslow, R. A., Grisham, R. N., et al. (2018) · American Journal of Roentgenology · doi:10.2214/ajr.17.18254 · Cited by 42
“Furthermore, several risk prediction models have been put forth to discriminate between benign, borderline, and malignant ovarian masses [23, 24].”
BackgroundImaging and Differential Diagnosis of Ovarian Cancer
Shetty, M. K. (2019) · Seminars in Ultrasound CT and MRI · doi:10.1053/j.sult.2019.04.002 · Cited by 42
Unraveling a difficult diagnosis: the tricks for early recognition of ovarian cancer
Giampaolino, P., Corte, L. D., Foreste, V., Vitale, S. G., Chiofalo, B., Cianci, S., Zullo, F., & Bifulco, G. (2019) · Minerva Medica · doi:10.23736/s0026-4806.19.06086-5 · Cited by 41
Contemporary Guidelines for Adnexal Mass Imaging: A 2020 Update
Stein, E. B., Roseland, M. E., Shampain, K. L., Wasnik, A. P., & Maturen, K. E. (2020) · Abdominal Radiology · doi:10.1007/s00261-020-02812-z · Cited by 41
“The method of risk assessment used in O-RADS US is based on data from the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) group’s Assessment of Different Neoplasias in the adnexa (ADNEX), a mathematical model which calculates the likelihood of malignancy with high positive predictive value [27, 28].”
MethodA comparison of hyperparameter tuning procedures for clinical prediction models: A simulation study
Dunias, Z. S., CALSTER, B. V., Timmerman, D., Boulesteix, A., & van Smeden, M. (2024) · Statistics in Medicine · doi:10.1002/sim.9932 · Cited by 40
Role of artificial intelligence applied to ultrasound in gynecology oncology: A systematic review
Moro, F., Ciancia, M., Zaçe, D., Vagni, M., Tran, H. E., Giudice, M. T., Zoccoli, S. G., Mascilini, F., Ciccarone, F., Boldrini, L., et al. (2024) · International Journal of Cancer · doi:10.1002/ijc.35092 · Cited by 54
Sayasneh, A., Kaijser, J., Preisler, J., Smith, A. A., Raslan, F., Johnson, S., Husicka, R., Ferrara, L., Stalder, C. M., Ghaem‐Maghami, S., et al. (2014) · Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1002/uog.14675 · Cited by 40
Adaptive sample size determination for the development of clinical prediction models
Christodoulou, E., van Smeden, M., Edlinger, M., Timmerman, D., Wanitschek, M. M., Steyerberg, E. W., & CALSTER, B. V. (2021) · Diagnostic and Prognostic Research · doi:10.1186/s41512-021-00096-5 · Cited by 39
Fischerová, D., Smet, C., Scovazzi, U., Sousa, D. N., Hundarova, K., & Haldorsen, I. S. (2024) · International Journal of Gynecological Cancer · doi:10.1136/ijgc-2023-004609 · Cited by 41
A systematic approach to adnexal masses discovered on ultrasound: the ADNEx MR scoring system
Sadowski, E. A., Robbins, J. B., Rockall, A., & Thomassin‐Naggara, I. (2017) · Abdominal Radiology · doi:10.1007/s00261-017-1272-7 · Cited by 39
Survival of Women With Type I and II Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Detected by Ultrasound Screening
van Nagell, J. R., Burgess, B. T., Miller, R. W., Baldwin, L. A., DeSimone, C. P., Ueland, F. R., Huang, B., Chen, Q., Kryscio, R. J., & Pavlik, E. J. (2018) · Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1097/aog.0000000000002921 · Cited by 39
Ultrasound in Gynecological Cancer: Is It Time for Re-evaluation of Its Uses?
Fischerová, D., & Cibula, D. (2015) · Current Oncology Reports · doi:10.1007/s11912-015-0449-x · Cited by 39
Viora, E., Piovano, E., Poma, C. B., Cotrino, I., Castiglione, A., Cavallero, C., Sciarrone, A., Bastonero, S., Iskra, L., & Zola, P. (2020) · European Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology and Reproductive Biology · doi:10.1016/j.ejogrb.2020.02.022 · Cited by 38
Terzić, M., Aimagambetova, G. N., Norton, M., Corte, L. D., Marín-Buck, A., Lisón, J. F., Amer-Cuenca, J. J., Zito, G., Garzon, S., Caruso, S., et al. (2020) · Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology · doi:10.1080/01443615.2020.1732892 · Cited by 39
“Therefore, the IOTA ADNEX model can help to differentiate benign from malignant tumours, as well as identify the histologic types and tumour spread (Van Calster et al. 2014).”
BackgroundMethodPi, Y., Wilson, M. P., Katlariwala, P., Sam, M., Ackerman, T. E., Paskar, L., Patel, V., & Low, G. (2021) · Abdominal Radiology · doi:10.1007/s00261-021-03193-7 · Cited by 38
Moro, F., Giudice, M. T., Ciancia, M., Zaçe, D., Baldassari, G., Vagni, M., Tran, H. E., Scambia, G., & Testa, A. C. (2025) · Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1002/uog.29171 · Cited by 45
Jeong, S. Y., Park, B. K., Lee, Y.-Y., & Kim, T. (2020) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm9062010 · Cited by 37
“In 2014, a new model with better performance, the assessment of different neoplasias in the adnexa (ADNEX) model, was developed in this group [13].”
MethodChiappa, V., Interlenghi, M., Bogani, G., Salvatore, C., Bertolina, F., Sarpietro, G., Signorelli, M., Ronzulli, D., Castiglioni, I., & Raspagliesi, F. (2021) · European Radiology Experimental · doi:10.1186/s41747-021-00226-0 · Cited by 35
Moro, F., Pasciuto, T., Djokovic, D., Legge, A. D., Granato, V., Moruzzi, M. C., Mancari, R., Zannoni, G. F., Fischerová, D., Franchi, D., et al. (2018) · Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1002/uog.19174 · Cited by 33
Low-grade epithelial ovarian cancer: what a radiologist should know
Elsherif, S. B., Javadi, S., Viswanathan, C., Faria, S. C., & Bhosale, P. (2019) · British Journal of Radiology · doi:10.1259/bjr.20180571 · Cited by 32
Management of ovarian masses in pregnancy: patient selection for interventional treatment
Testa, A. C., Mascilini, F., Quagliozzi, L., Moro, F., Bolomini, G., Mirandola, M., Moruzzi, M. C., Scambia, G., & Fagotti, A. (2020) · International Journal of Gynecological Cancer · doi:10.1136/ijgc-2020-001996 · Cited by 32
Lai, H.-W., Lyu, G., Kang, Z., Li, L., Zhang, Y., & Huang, Y. (2021) · Journal of Ultrasound in Medicine · doi:10.1002/jum.15834 · Cited by 32
Chen, G.-Y., Hsu, T., Chan, I., Liu, C., Chao, W., Shih, Y.-C., Jiang, L., Chang, Y., Wang, P., & Chen, Y. (2022) · European Radiology · doi:10.1007/s00330-022-08803-6 · Cited by 34
Koneczny, J., Czekierdowski, A., Florczak, M., Poziemski, P., Stachowicz, N., & Borowski, D. (2017) · Ginekologia Polska · doi:10.5603/gp.a2017.0116 · Cited by 32
Mascilini, F., Savelli, L., Scifo, M. C., Exacoustós, C., Timor‐Tritsch, I. E., Blasis, I. D., Moruzzi, M. C., Pasciuto, T., Scambia, G., Valentin, L., et al. (2016) · Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1002/uog.17216 · Cited by 31
Bourne, T., Leonardi, M., Kyriacou, C., Al‐Memar, M., Landolfo, C., Cibula, D., Condous, G., Metzger, U., Fischerova, D., Timmerman, D., et al. (2020) · Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology · doi:10.1002/uog.22047 · Cited by 29
Du, Y., Xiao, Y., Guo, W., Yao, J., Lan, T., Li, S., Wen, H., Zhu, W., He, G., Zheng, H., et al. (2024) · BioMedical Engineering OnLine · doi:10.1186/s12938-024-01234-y · Cited by 33
Landolfo, C., Valentin, L., Franchi, D., Holsbeke, C. V., Fruscio, R., Froyman, W., Sladkevicius, P., Kaijser, J., Ameye, L., Bourne, T., et al. (2018) · Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1002/uog.18951 · Cited by 30
Du, Y., Guo, W., Xiao, Y., Chen, H., Yao, J., & Wu, J. (2024) · BMC Medical Imaging · doi:10.1186/s12880-024-01251-2 · Cited by 34
“[12, 29, 30].”
Funston, G., van Melle, M., Baun, M. L., Jensen, H., Helsper, C. W., Emery, J. D., Crosbie, E. J., Thompson, M. J., Hamilton, W. T., & Walter, F. M. (2019) · BMC Cancer · doi:10.1186/s12885-019-6211-2 · Cited by 29
Yu, X., Wang, L., Yu, H., Zou, Y., Wang, C., Jiao, J., Hong, H., & Zhang, S. (2021) · Cancer Management and Research · doi:10.2147/cmar.s284220 · Cited by 28
“models have been proposed to distinguish benign, borderline, and malignant ovarian tumors.(19,20) The MDCT diagnosis of ovarian malignant tumors is related to various findings, such as the presence of bilateral and cystic-solid masses, a large soft-tissue component with necrosis, a tumor with thick and irregular septa…”
BackgroundYoeli‐Bik, R., Longman, R. E., Wroblewski, K., Weigert, M., Abramowicz, J. S., & Lengyel, E. R. (2023) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.23289 · Cited by 29
Kaijser, J. (2015) · PubMed Central · Cited by 27
Metadata
- Authors
- Van Calster, B., Van Hoorde, K., Valentin, L., Testa, A. C., Fischerova, D., Van Holsbeke, C., Savelli, L., Franchi, D., Epstein, E., Kaijser, J., Van Belle, V., Czekierdowski, A., Guerriero, S., Fruscio, R., Lanzani, C., Scala, F., Bourne, T., Timmerman, D., & International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) group
- Affiliations
- Lund University (SE)
- Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore (IT)
- IRCCS Azienda Ospedliero-Universitaria di Bologna Policlinico di Sant'Orsola (IT)
- European Institute of Oncology (IT)
- Karolinska University Hospital (SE)
- Universitair Ziekenhuis Leuven (BE)
- Medical University of Lublin (PL)
- Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Cagliari (IT)
- University of Milan (IT)
- Istituto Nazionale Tumori IRCCS "Fondazione G. Pascale" (IT)
- ORCID
- Venue
- BMJ
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2014-10-15
- Volume
- 349
- Issue
- oct07 3
- Pages
- g5920-g5920
- ISSN
- 1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4198550
- OpenAlex
- W2099878111
- Cited by
- 510
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 52 · 2025: 60 · 2024: 70 · 2023: 54 · 2022: 55 · 2021: 59 · 2020: 36 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 30 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 27 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 4
- FWCI
- 27.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- BMJ (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- BOA (University of Milano-Bicocca) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Lirias (KU Leuven) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- UNICA IRIS Institutional Research Information System (University of Cagliari) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Lund University Publications (Lund University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- PubliCatt (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- National Institute for Health and Care Research
- Imperial College London
- Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust
- Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (G049312N)
- iMinds
- Malmö Högskola
- Skånes universitetssjukhus
- Vlaamse regering (G049312N)
- Medical Research Council
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Ovarian cancer diagnosis and treatment
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › BRCA gene mutations in cancer
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pathology and Forensic Medicine › Breast Lesions and Carcinomas
- Keywords
- ovarian cancer, ADNEX model, preoperative risk prediction, ovarian ultrasonography, borderline ovarian tumors, CA125, surgical staging, adnexal mass, triage
- MeSH terms
- Adnexal Diseases, Adult, Female, Humans, Neoplasm Staging, Ovarian Neoplasms, Predictive Value of Tests, Prospective Studies, Ultrasonography, Models, Statistical, Risk Assessment
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