Glycemic variability and cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes
Open accessAbstract
Glycated hemoglobin is currently the gold standard for assessment of long-term glycemic control and response to medical treatment in patients with diabetes. Glycated hemoglobin, however, does not address fluctuations in blood glucose. Glycemic variability (GV) refers to fluctuations in blood glucose levels. Recent clinical data indicate that GV is associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia, microvascular and macrovascular complications, and mortality in patients with diabetes, independently of glycated hemoglobin level. The use of continuous glucose monitoring devices has markedly improved the assessment of GV in clinical practice and facilitated the assessment of GV as well as hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia events in patients with diabetes. We review current concepts on the definition and assessment of GV and its association with cardiovascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This review summarizes definitions and assessment of glycemic variability (GV) and evidence linking GV to cardiovascular complications in type 2 diabetes, noting associations independent of HbA1c in many studies but not all. It concludes that clear data confirming GV as an independent risk factor for diabetic complications are still lacking and calls for prospective randomized CGM trials.
Key findings
- GV refers to blood glucose swings, including hypoglycemia and postprandial hyperglycemia; CGM metrics include time in range 70–180 mg/dL, time above/below range, and GV expressed as coefficient of variation (CV), with a recommended CV target ≤36%. The International Consensus on Use of Continuous Glucose Monitoring recommended CV as the preferred measure and SD as secondary.
- A meta-analysis by Gorst et al. found that in patients with T2D, higher HbA1c variability was associated with renal disease (risk ratio 1.34, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.57), macrovascular events (1.21, 1.06 to 1.38), cardiovascular disease (1.27, 1.15 to 1.40), and mortality (1.34, 1.18 to 1.53).
- In ADVANCE, HbA1c visit-to-visit variation was associated with increased risk of vascular events (p=0.01, HR 1.64, 1.05–2.55), macrovascular events (p=0.02), and mortality (p<0.001, HR 3.31, 1.57–6.98); fasting glucose visit-to-visit variation was associated with cardiovascular events (p<0.001, HR 2.70, 1.65–4.42) and macrovascular and microvascular events.
- In DEVOTE 2, high day-to-day fasting GV was associated with severe hypoglycemia (HR 4.11, 3.15–5.35), MACE (HR 1.36, 1.12–1.65), and all-cause mortality (HR 1.58, 1.23–2.03). However, HEART2D, DIGAMI 2, and FLAT-SUGAR reported no association or no significant difference in cardiovascular outcomes despite GV changes.
Methods
- Narrative review of current concepts on the definition and assessment of GV and its association with cardiovascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes.
- Synthesizes experimental, clinical, observational, meta-analytic, and post-hoc trial evidence, including a table of studies assessing GV and cardiovascular outcomes in T2D, acute coronary syndrome, and acute myocardial infarction populations.
- No systematic search strategy, primary data collection, or formal risk-of-bias assessment is described.
Limitations
- The paper states there is currently no consensus on metrics to assess GV; heterogeneity between studies, including different GV metrics, limits understanding of relationships between GV and diabetes complications.
- The paper states that clear data confirming GV as an independent risk factor of diabetic complications are still lacking, and future prospective randomized clinical trials using CGM devices are needed.
- Evident from the text: this is a narrative review, and the cited studies vary in populations, GV measures (SMBG, CGM, HbA1c, fasting glucose), follow-up duration, and outcomes, with some reporting null associations.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Claims the paper makes
0 of 74 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Premisereasoning
The combination of reduced nitric oxide availability and increased vasoconstrictor production plays a role in the development of vascular atherosclerotic changes.
“The combination of reduced NO availability and increased vasoconstrictor production has been shown to play a role in the development of vascular atherosclerotic changes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Glycemic variability may be a better predictor of complications than average glucose by self-monitored blood glucose and glycated hemoglobin values.
“GV has emerged as an important tool in the evaluation of glycemic control, which may be a better predictor of complications than average glucose by SMBG and HbA1c values.20 25 31”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 20 25 31
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- Premisecitation
Glycemic variability is associated with macrovascular complications in patients with diabetes.
“Recent clinical data indicate that GV is associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia, microvascular and macrovascular complications, and mortality in patients with diabetes, independently of glycated hemoglobin level.”
- Also stated in: § Methods of GV assessment · plain
“GV metrics have been associated with microvascular complications15 32 33 as well as increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes.19 21 23 25 34”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 19 21 23 25 34
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- Also stated in: § Methods of GV assessment · plain
- Premisecitation
Long-term glycemic variability is a better predictor of adverse outcomes than average HbA1c.
“In these studies, long-term GV has shown to be a better predictor of adverse outcomes than the average HbA1c.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Long-term glycemic variability has been reported in observational studies and meta-analyses to predict diabetic complications in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes.
“Long-term GV has been reported in observational studies and meta-analyses to predict diabetic complications in both T1D and T2D.15 19 21 31”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 15 19 21 31
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- Premisecitation
In vitro studies in human umbilical vein endothelial cells reported that increases in nitrotyrosine and 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine were more pronounced when cells were exposed to intermittent high glucose than to constant high glucose.
“In vitro studies in human umbilical vein endothelial cells reported that increases in nitrotyrosine and 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine, markers of oxidative stress, were more pronounced when they were exposed to intermittent high glucose than in constant high glucose.24”
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- Premisecitation
HbA1c variability is associated with increased cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes.
“The association between HbA1c variability by different metrics as SD and CV has been strongly associated with microvascular complications and increased cardiovascular disease, as well as increased all-cause mortality, in patients with T2D.15 19–21 31”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 15 19–21 31
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- Premisecitation
Glycemic variability is associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia in patients with diabetes, independently of glycated hemoglobin level.
“Recent clinical data indicate that GV is associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia, microvascular and macrovascular complications, and mortality in patients with diabetes, independently of glycated hemoglobin level.”
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
“High GV has been associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia,13–16”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [13] Umpierrez, 2018, Glycemic variability: how to measure and its clinical implication for type 2 diabetes, Am J Med Sci source
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- cites [14] source
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- cites [15] source
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- cites [16] Jin, 2014, Clinical factors associated with absolute and relative measures of glycemic variability determined by continuous glucose monitoring: an analysis of 480 subjects, Diabetes Res Clin Pract source
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- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
- Premisecitation
Glycemic variability is associated with reduced patient psychological well-being and quality of life.
“reduced patient psychological well-being and quality of life,17”
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- Premisecitation
Glycemic variability is associated with mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.
“Recent clinical data indicate that GV is associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia, microvascular and macrovascular complications, and mortality in patients with diabetes, independently of glycated hemoglobin level.”
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
“increased risk of cardiovascular disease18–20 and mortality in patients with T2D.21–23”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked - Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
- Premisecitation
HbA1c variability is associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.
“The association between HbA1c variability by different metrics as SD and CV has been strongly associated with microvascular complications and increased cardiovascular disease, as well as increased all-cause mortality, in patients with T2D.15 19–21 31”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 15 19–21 31
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- Premisecitation
Glycemic variability is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes.
“increased risk of cardiovascular disease18–20”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked - Premisecitation
HbA1c variability by different metrics such as SD and CV is strongly associated with microvascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes.
“The association between HbA1c variability by different metrics as SD and CV has been strongly associated with microvascular complications and increased cardiovascular disease, as well as increased all-cause mortality, in patients with T2D.15 19–21 31”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 15 19–21 31
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- Premisecitation
Glycemic variability is associated with microvascular complications in patients with diabetes.
“Recent clinical data indicate that GV is associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia, microvascular and macrovascular complications, and mortality in patients with diabetes, independently of glycated hemoglobin level.”
- Also stated in: § Methods of GV assessment · plain
“GV metrics have been associated with microvascular complications15 32 33”
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- Also stated in: § Methods of GV assessment · plain
- Premisecitation
In VADT, CV and ARV of fasting glucose were significantly associated with cardiovascular disease (CV glucose: p=0.003, OR 1.162, 1.054-1.281; ARV glucose: p=0.0006, OR 1.168, 1.069-1.275).
“CV and ARV of FG were significantly associated with CVD: CV glucose: p=0.003, OR 1.162 (1.054–1.281); ARV glucose: p=0.0006, OR 1.168 (1.069–1.275).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [51] source
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- Premisecitation
In a pooled analysis of six randomized controlled trials of 1699 insulin-treated adult patients with type 2 diabetes, all measures of glycemic variability were significantly associated with on-trial development of hypoglycemia.
“In a pooled analysis of six randomized controlled trials of 1699 insulin-treated adult patients with T2D, all measures of GV were significantly associated with on-trial development of hypoglycemia.45”
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- Premisecitation
Patients in higher quartiles of HbA1c have increased risk of proliferative retinopathy compared with those in lower quartiles.
“More recently, several longitudinal studies in patients with T1D and T2D have confirmed that patients in higher quartiles of HbA1c have increased risk of proliferative retinopathy compared with those in lower quartiles.33 43 44”
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- Premisenone given
Hyperglycemia contributes significantly to the pathogenesis of microvascular and macrovascular complications in diabetes.
“Hyperglycemia, among various other factors such as insulin resistance, contributes significantly to the pathogenesis of microvascular and macrovascular complications in diabetes.”
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In patients with acute coronary syndrome who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention, the high glycemic variability group had significantly lower event-free survival rates.
“with the high GV group having significantly lower event-free survival rates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [50] Takahashi, 2018, Glycemic variability determined with a continuous glucose monitoring system can predict prognosis after acute coronary syndrome, Cardiovasc Diabetol source
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- Premisecitation
Hypoglycemia is more common in patients with increased glycemic variability.
“A large body of evidence has pointed to the relationship between GV and hypoglycemia, with hypoglycemia being more common in patients with increased GV.13 45”
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- Premisecitation
In Gerbaud et al, a glycemic variability cut-off of >2.70 mmol/L was the strongest independent predictive factor of MACE (OR 2.21, 1.64-0.98, p<0.001).
“GV cut-off of >2.70 mmol/L was the strongest independent predictive factor of MACE: OR 2.21 (1.64–0.98), p<0.001.”
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- Premisecitation
In addition to sustained hyperglycemia, swings in glucose concentration or glycemic variability are associated with increased rate of microvascular complications.
“In addition to sustained hyperglycemia, swings in glucose concentration or GV have been associated with increased rate of microvascular complications.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
In DIGAMI 2, there was no association between glycemic variability and complications (composite endpoint: RMSE p=0.28, HR 1.09, 0.93-1.27; mortality p=0.21, HR 1.14, 0.93-1.38).
“No association between GV and complications.Composite endpoint: RMSE p=0.28, HR 1.09 (0.93–1.27), mortality p=0.21, HR 1.14 (0.93–1.38).”
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- Premisecitation
In patients with acute coronary syndrome who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention, glycemic variability was an independent predictive factor of poor prognosis.
“They reported that GV was an independent predictive factor of poor prognosis”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [50] Takahashi, 2018, Glycemic variability determined with a continuous glucose monitoring system can predict prognosis after acute coronary syndrome, Cardiovasc Diabetol source
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- Premisecitation
High glycemic variability increases the risk of peripheral and cardiac autonomic neuropathy.
“In addition, high GV has been shown to increase the risk of peripheral and cardiac autonomic neuropathy.19 44”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 19 44
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- Premisenone given
Sulfonylureas are associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia, particularly in older patients and those with renal impairment.
“Sulfonylureas are also associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia, particularly in older patients and those with renal impairment.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
In the Diabetes Complications Control Trial, for every absolute 1% increase in HbA1c SD, the hazard ratio of both development and progression of retinopathy increased by more than 100% (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.63 to 3.14).
“In that study, for every increase in SD of HbA1c by absolute 1%, the HR of both the development and progression of retinopathy increased by more than 100% (HR 2.26 for every absolute 1% increase in HbA1c SD, 95% CI 1.63 to 3.14).33 43 44”
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- Premisecitation
In patients with type 2 diabetes treated with insulin or oral antidiabetic agents, the frequency of hypoglycemic events increased significantly when glycemic variability exceeded the mean SD value.
“The frequency of hypoglycemic events in patients with T2D treated with insulin or oral antidiabetic agents increased significantly when the GV exceeded the mean SD value.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
In HEART2D, there was no association between glycemic variability and cardiovascular disease (MAG p=0.57, MAGE p=0.49, SD p=0.52).
“No association between GV and CVD.MAG p=0.57, MAGE p=0.49 and SD p=0.52.”
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- Premisecitation
The risk of nephropathy and albuminuria is increased up to 80% for each increase in SD.
“The risk of nephropathy and albuminuria has also been shown to be remarkably increased (up to 80%) for each increase in SD.43”
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- Premisecitation
In the ADVANCE trial, fasting glycemic variability was associated with both macrovascular and microvascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes.
“They found that fasting GV was associated with both macrovascular and microvascular events”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [21] source
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- Premisecitation
In the ADVANCE trial, HbA1c variability was positively associated with risk of macrovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes.
“and that HbA1c variability was positively associated with risk of macrovascular events.21”
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- Premisecitation
A meta-analysis by Gorst et al reported an association between HbA1c variability and microvascular and macrovascular complications and mortality.
“A meta-analysis by Gorst et al20 reported the association between HbA1c variability and microvascular and macrovascular complications and mortality.”
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- Premisecitation
Data from the Diabetes Complications Control Trial showed a positive relationship between higher HbA1c levels and glycemic variability and rate of complications.
“Data from the Diabetes Complications Control Trial clearly showed the positive relationship between higher HbA1c levels and GV and rate of complications.43”
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- Premisecitation
In a mixed population of people with type 2 diabetes, the incidence of hypoglycemic events was three to six times greater in patients with a within-day CV of more than 36% compared with a CV less than 36%, irrespective of treatment with oral diabetes drugs or insulin.
“In a mixed population of people with T2D, the incidence of hypoglycemic events was three to six times greater in patients with a within-day CV of more than 36% compared with a CV less than 36%, irrespective of the type of treatment with oral diabetes drugs or insulin.47”
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- Premisecitation
In an animal model, blood glucose fluctuation accelerated cardiac injury via intracellular signal transduction pathways including protein kinase B (AKT).
“In an animal model, Ying and colleagues41 evaluated markers of tissue oxidative stress in heart ventricles and found that blood glucose fluctuation accelerated cardiac injury via intracellular signal transduction pathways including protein kinase B (AKT), key enzyme in cell death.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [41] Ying, 2017, Glucose variability aggravates cardiac fibrosis by altering Akt signalling path, Diab Vasc Dis Res source
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- Premisecitation
The association between glycemic variability and hypoglycemia is more pronounced in patients receiving insulin treatment.
“This association is more pronounced in patients receiving insulin treatment.”
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In patients with diabetes and acute coronary syndrome, a glycemic variability cut-off value of >2.70 mmol/L (49 mg/dL) was the strongest independent predictive factor of MACE, including new onset of myocardial infarction, acute heart failure and cardiac death.
“Gerbaud et al42 reported that in patients with diabetes and acute coronary syndrome, a GV cut-off value of >2.70 mmol/L (49 mg/dL) was the strongest independent predictive factor of MACE, including new onset of myocardial infarction, acute heart failure and cardiac death.”
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- Premisecitation
In the DIGAMI 2 study, there was lack of association between glycemic variability during the initial phase during hospitalization and the composite of mortality, non-fatal stroke and reinfarction after 1 year of follow-up.
“The authors reported lack of association between GV during the initial phase during hospitalization or in the composite of mortality, non-fatal stroke and reinfarction after 1 year of follow-up.52”
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- Interpretationcitation
Some publications have reported lack of association between glycemic variability and cardiovascular disease.
“some publications have reported lack of association between GV and cardiovascular disease.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationnone given
In recent years, increasing information indicates that short-term and long-term glycemic fluctuations have greater deleterious effects on the development of diabetic complications.
“In recent years, increasing information indicates that short-term and long-term glycemic fluctuations have greater deleterious effects on the development of diabetic complications.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationnone given
Most studies report a positive relationship between glycemic variability and cardiovascular disease.
“most studies reporting a positive relationship”
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In a post-hoc analysis of the Veteran Affairs Diabetes Trial, the association was not present for HbA1c variability.
“Conversely, the association was not present for HbA1c variability.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [51] source
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- Premisecitation
Continuous glucose monitoring sensors have been shown to decrease glycemic variability.
“decrease GV.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [55] Rodbard, 2017, Continuous glucose monitoring: a review of recent studies demonstrating improved glycemic outcomes, Diabetes Technol Ther source
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- Premisecitation
In the FLAT-SUGAR trial, GLP-1 receptor agonist resulted in significant reductions in glycemic variability determined by continuous glucose monitoring compared with prandial insulin.
“They reported that GLP1-RA resulted in significant reductions in GV determined by CGM compared with prandial insulin.”
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- Premisecitation
Continuous glucose monitoring sensors have been shown to reduce hypoglycemia incidence.
“reduce hypoglycemia incidence”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [55] Rodbard, 2017, Continuous glucose monitoring: a review of recent studies demonstrating improved glycemic outcomes, Diabetes Technol Ther source
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- Premisecitation
In the HEART2D study, there was no difference in glycemic variability between patients who experienced cardiovascular events and those without events.
“reported no difference in GV in patients who experienced cardiovascular events and those without events.52”
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- Premisecitation
In the DIGAMI 2 study, there was no relationship between glycemic variability and acute cardiovascular complications in 578 patients with type 2 diabetes.
“reported no relationship between GV and acute cardiovascular complications in 578 patients with T2D.53”
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- Premisecitation
Continuous glucose monitoring sensors have been shown to improve glycemic control.
“CGM sensors have been shown to improve glycemic control”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [55] Rodbard, 2017, Continuous glucose monitoring: a review of recent studies demonstrating improved glycemic outcomes, Diabetes Technol Ther source
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- Interpretationnone given
Clear data confirming glycemic variability as an independent risk factor of diabetic complications are still lacking.
“However, clear data confirming GV as an independent risk factor of diabetic complications are still lacking.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
In a post-hoc analysis of the Veteran Affairs Diabetes Trial, variability of fasting glucose was significantly associated with cardiovascular disease even after adjusting for different risk factors, including mean fasting glucose.
“The results showed a significant association between variability of fasting glucose and cardiovascular disease even after adjusting for different risk factors, including mean fasting glucose.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [51] source
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- May combine two claims. 24
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Premisenone givenThe use of continuous glucose monitoring devices has markedly improved the assessment of glycemic variability in clinical practice and facilitated the assessment of glycemic variability as well as hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia events in patients with diabetes.
“The use of continuous glucose monitoring devices has markedly improved the assessment of GV in clinical practice and facilitated the assessment of GV as well as hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia events in patients with diabetes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationHyperglycemia and protein kinase C activation-induced reactive oxygen species production result in inflammatory changes in the vascular endothelium, including monocyte adhesion, foam cell formation, and activation of the polyol pathway and increased formation of advanced glycation end products.
“Hyperglycemia and PKC activation-induced ROS production result in inflammatory changes in the vascular endothelium including monocytes adhesion, formation of foam cells, and activation of major biochemical paths including polyol pathway flux and increased formation of advanced glycation end products, further contributing to the development of atherosclerosis.40”
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PremisecitationDaily fluctuations in blood glucose are associated with endothelial dysfunction, inflammation and oxidative stress.
“increasing evidence indicates that daily fluctuations in blood glucose are associated with endothelial dysfunction,23–25 inflammation and oxidative stress,22 24”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [23] Scott, 2020, Long-term glycemic variability and vascular complications in type 2 diabetes: post hoc analysis of the field study, J Clin Endocrinol Metab source
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- cites [24] source
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- cites 22 24
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PremisecitationHyperglycemia triggers the activation of protein kinase C, which affects vascular cell growth and apoptosis, extracellular matrix synthesis, and altered vascular homeostasis.
“In addition, hyperglycemia triggers the activation of protein kinase C (PKC), which has an effect on vascular cell growth and apoptosis, extracellular matrix synthesis, and altered vascular homeostasis.24 38”
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PremisecitationProtein kinase C increases production of reactive oxygen species, which decreases nitric oxide availability and causes overproduction of vasoconstrictors such as endothelin-1 and cyclo-oxygenase-2 expression.
“PKC also increases production of ROS, which decreases NO availability and overproduction of vasoconstrictors such as endothelin-1 and cyclo-oxygenase-2 expression, molecules involved in platelet aggregation and vasoconstriction.39”
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Premisenone givenEndothelial dysfunction, inflammation and oxidative stress are factors associated with the pathogenesis of vascular damage and atherosclerosis.
“factors associated with the pathogenesis of vascular damage and atherosclerosis.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationHyperglycemia increases the production of reactive oxygen species, which inactivates nitric oxide, leading to endothelial dysfunction and vascular complications.
“Hyperglycemia increases the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), which inactivates nitric oxide (NO),19 38 leading to endothelial dysfunction and vascular complications.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 19 38
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PremisecitationIn Takahashi et al, mean amplitude of glycemic excursion was associated with increased MACCE (23.5% vs 11.6%, p=0.002) and was an independent predictor of poor prognosis (p=0.045, HR 1.84, 1.01-3.36).
“MAGE was associated with increased MACCE (23.5% vs 11.6%, p=0.002) and was an independent predictor of poor prognosis (p= 0.045, HR 1.84, 1.01–3.36).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [50] Takahashi, 2018, Glycemic variability determined with a continuous glucose monitoring system can predict prognosis after acute coronary syndrome, Cardiovasc Diabetol source
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PremisecitationIn ADVANCE, increased HbA1c visit-to-visit variation was associated with increased risk of vascular events (p=0.01, HR 1.64, 1.05-2.55), macrovascular events (p=0.02), and mortality (p<0.001, HR 3.31, 1.57-6.98).
“Increased HbA1c visit-to-visit variation was associated with increased risk of vascular events (p=0.01, HR 1.64, 1.05–2.55), macrovascular events (p=0.02), and mortality (p<0.001, HR 3.31, 1.57–6.98).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [21] source
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PremisecitationSustained hyperglycemia measured by high HbA1c or by continuous glucose monitoring and increased glycemic variability are important factors associated with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes.
“Sustained hyperglycemia measured by high HbA1c or by CGM and increased GV are important factors associated with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with T2D.21 34 48”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 21 34 48
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PremisecitationIn ADVANCE, fasting glucose visit-to-visit variation was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events (p<0.001, HR 2.70, 1.65-4.42) and macrovascular (p=0.005) and microvascular (p<0.001) events.
“FG visit-to-visit variation was associated with increased risk of CV events (p<0.001, HR 2.70, 1.65–4.42) and macrovascular (p=0.005) and microvascular (p<0.001) events.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [21] source
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PremisecitationIn patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of cardiovascular events in DEVOTE 2, high day-to-day fasting glycemic variability was significantly associated with all-cause mortality, with a 1.4-fold increased risk when fasting glycemic variability was duplicated.
“High day-to-day fasting GV was significantly associated with severe hypoglycemia, MACE and all-cause mortality; risks raised 2.7-fold, 1.2-fold and 1.4-fold, respectively, when fasting GV was duplicated.49”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [49] Zinman, 2018, Day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability in DEVOTE: associations with severe hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular outcomes (DEVOTE 2), Diabetologia source
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PremisecitationHigh glucose fluctuations increase oxidative stress in heart tissue and can induce cardiomyocyte apoptosis.
“Increasing evidence indicates that high glucose fluctuations also increase oxidative stress in heart tissue and can induce cardiomyocyte apoptosis.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of cardiovascular events in DEVOTE 2, high day-to-day fasting glycemic variability was significantly associated with severe hypoglycemia, with a 2.7-fold increased risk when fasting glycemic variability was duplicated.
“High day-to-day fasting GV was significantly associated with severe hypoglycemia, MACE and all-cause mortality; risks raised 2.7-fold, 1.2-fold and 1.4-fold, respectively, when fasting GV was duplicated.49”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [49] Zinman, 2018, Day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability in DEVOTE: associations with severe hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular outcomes (DEVOTE 2), Diabetologia source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn 13 studies of patients with type 2 diabetes, higher HbA1c variability is associated with higher risk of renal disease (1.34, 1.15 to 1.57), macrovascular events (1.21, 1.06 to 1.38), ulceration/gangrene (1.50, 1.06 to 2.12), cardiovascular disease (1.27, 1.15 to 1.40), and mortality (1.34, 1.18 to 1.53).
“In the same meta-analysis were included 13 studies of patients with T2D, where higher HbA1c variability was associated with higher risk of renal disease (1.34, 1.15 to 1.57), macrovascular events (1.21, 1.06 to 1.38), ulceration/gangrene (1.50, 1.06 to 2.12), cardiovascular disease (1.27, 1.15 to 1.40), and mortality (1.34, 1.18 to 1.53).20”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [20] source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationHigh HbA1c variability among patients with type 1 diabetes is associated with increased risk of renal disease (risk ratio 1.56, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.25), cardiovascular events (1.98, 1.39 to 2.82), and retinopathy (2.11, 1.54 to 2.89).
“High HbA1c variability among patients with T1D was associated with increased risk of renal disease (risk ratio 1.56, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.25), cardiovascular events (1.98, 1.39 to 2.82), and retinopathy (2.11, 1.54 to 2.89).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [20] source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationGlycemic variability is positively associated with macrovascular complications and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes, independently of the HbA1c level.
“Clinical studies and meta-analyses have shown that GV is positively associated with macrovascular complications and mortality (table 1), independently of the HbA1c level.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationChronic hyperglycemia and exposure of endothelial cells to intermittent high glucose produce overproduction of adhesion molecules such as intracellular adhesion molecule-1, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, and E-selectin, which regulate leukocyte adhesion to the endothelium and lead to atheroma pathogenesis.
“In addition, chronic hyperglycemia and exposure of endothelial cells to intermittent high glucose produce an overproduction of several adhesion molecules such as intracellular adhesion molecule-1, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, and E-selectin, which regulate the adhesion of leukocytes to the endothelium, leading to atheroma pathogenesis.24 38”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 24 38
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of cardiovascular events in DEVOTE 2, high day-to-day fasting glycemic variability was significantly associated with MACE, with a 1.2-fold increased risk when fasting glycemic variability was duplicated.
“High day-to-day fasting GV was significantly associated with severe hypoglycemia, MACE and all-cause mortality; risks raised 2.7-fold, 1.2-fold and 1.4-fold, respectively, when fasting GV was duplicated.49”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [49] Zinman, 2018, Day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability in DEVOTE: associations with severe hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular outcomes (DEVOTE 2), Diabetologia source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationDiabetes is associated with accelerating atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease, which accounts for 52% of deaths in patients with type 2 diabetes and 44% in patients with type 1 diabetes.
“It is also associated with an accelerating atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease,21 23 34 42 which accounts for 52% of deaths in patients with T2D and 44% in patients T1D.3–5”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites 21 23 34 42
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [3] Chan, 2021, The Lancet Commission on diabetes: using data to transform diabetes care and patient lives, Lancet source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [4] Huang, 2017, Macrovascular complications in patients with diabetes and prediabetes, Biomed Res Int
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [5] Morrish, 2001, Mortality and causes of death in the who multinational study of vascular disease in diabetes, Diabetologia source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe risk of hypoglycemia is increased when the mean blood glucose concentration is low or if deviations around the mean glucose concentration are large.
“This risk is increased when the mean blood glucose concentration is low or if deviations around the mean glucose concentrations are large, suggesting the need to reduce short-term GV.46”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [46] source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn DEVOTE 2, glycemic variability was associated with severe hypoglycemia (HR 4.11, 3.15-5.35), MACE (HR 1.36, 1.12-1.65), and all-cause mortality (HR 1.58, 1.23-2.03).
“GV was associated with severe hypoglycemia: HR 4.11 (3.15–5.35); MACE: HR 1.36 (1.12–1.65); and all cause mortality: HR 1.58 (1.23–2.03).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [49] Zinman, 2018, Day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability in DEVOTE: associations with severe hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular outcomes (DEVOTE 2), Diabetologia source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn the HEART2D study, intraday glycemic variability from 7-point self-monitored blood glucose had no difference on cardiovascular outcomes despite reduced intraday glycemic variability and postprandial hyperglycemia.
“An analysis to assess the effect of intraday GV from 7-point SMBG reported no difference on cardiovascular outcomes despite reduced intraday GV and postprandial hyperglycemia.52”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [52] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisereasoningDuring the past three decades, HbA1c has been the main target to assess response to diabetes treatment.
“During the past three decades, HbA1c, a measure of sustained hyperglycemia, has been the main target to assess response to diabetes treatment”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Poor glycemic control is positively associated with acute and long-term complications of diabetes.
- Rests on an assumption: Reduction in HbA1c leads to lower rates of diabetic complications.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn the FLAT-SUGAR trial, despite improvement in glycemic variability, there was no statistically significant difference in cardiac arrhythmias.
“Despite the improvement in GV, there was no statistically significant difference in cardiac arrhythmias”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [54] source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Premisenone givenThe results of experimental and clinical studies demonstrate that glucose fluctuations are associated with oxidative stress, endothelial dysfunction, and inflammation.
“The results of experimental and clinical studies demonstrate that glucose fluctuations are associated with oxidative stress, endothelial dysfunction, and inflammation”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationMinimally invasive continuous glucose monitoring sensors are becoming an increasingly adopted technology for the management of patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes.
“minimally invasive CGM sensors are becoming an increasingly adopted technology for the management of patients with T1D and T2D.55”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [55] Rodbard, 2017, Continuous glucose monitoring: a review of recent studies demonstrating improved glycemic outcomes, Diabetes Technol Ther source
Not checked in the free run.
The paper relies on this without support.
HbA1c is the gold standard for assessment of long-term glycemic control and response to medical treatment in patients with diabetes.
“Glycated hemoglobin is currently the gold standard for assessment of long-term glycemic control and response to medical treatment in patients with diabetes.”
The paper relies on this without support.
HbA1c does not address fluctuations in blood glucose.
“Glycated hemoglobin, however, does not address fluctuations in blood glucose.”
The paper relies on this without support.
There is currently no consensus on the use of metrics to assess glycemic variability.
“There is currently no consensus on the use of metrics to assess GV.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Mechanistic findings from in vitro and animal models of glucose fluctuation apply to the pathogenesis of vascular damage in human type 2 diabetes.
“In vitro studies in human umbilical vein endothelial cells reported that increases in nitrotyrosine and 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine, markers of oxidative stress, were more pronounced when they were exposed to intermittent high glucose than in constant high glucose.24”
“In an animal model, Ying and colleagues41 evaluated markers of tissue oxidative stress in heart ventricles and found that blood glucose fluctuation accelerated cardiac injury via intracellular signal transduction pathways including protein kinase B (AKT), key enzyme in cell death.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Poor glycemic control is positively associated with acute and long-term complications of diabetes.
“based on the positive association between poor glycemic control and acute and long-term complications of diabetes”
The paper relies on this without support.
Reduction in HbA1c leads to lower rates of diabetic complications.
“that reduction in HbA1c leads to lower rates in diabetic complications.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Glycemic variability is linked to oxidative stress, endothelial dysfunction, and cardiovascular outcomes independent of mean glucose levels.
“new literature evidence links glycemic variability to oxidative stress, endothelial dysfunction, and cardiovascular outcomes independent of mean glucose levels [[51], [52], [53], [54]].”
From Effectiveness of continuous glucose monitoring systems on glycemic control in adults with type 1 diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis (2025) · cites this paper as [51]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Reported odds ratio falls outside its interval
MinorThe reported odds ratio of 2.21 is outside the accompanying interval, whose endpoints are also in descending order. The Gerbaud result cannot be interpreted as printed.
“OR 2.21”
“(1.64–0.98), p<0.001.”
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Optimized glycemic control of type 2 diabetes with reinforcement learning: a proof-of-concept trial
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Significance of Glycemic Variability in Diabetes Mellitus
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How to Measure Glycemic Variability? A Literature Review
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Patients’ Perspective on Barriers to Utilization of a Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Service
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Renal Foot in Diabetes: Implications for Wound Healing and Solutions
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- Authors
- Martinez, M., Santamarina, J., Pavesi, A., Musso, C., & Umpierrez, G. E.
- Affiliations
- Fundacion Favaloro Hospital Universitario (AR)
- Diabetes and Endocrinology, Favaloro Foundation University Hospital, Buenos Aires, Federal District, Argentina
- Emory University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Umpierrez, Guillermo E
- Venue
- BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2021-03
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- e002032
- ISSN
- 2052-4897 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7993171
- OpenAlex
- W3138553431
- Semantic Scholar
- 64c8482c3eb134fca5ead0912e1852c256d5243b
- Cited by
- 155
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 23 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 37 · 2023: 32 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 5
- FWCI
- 3.56
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (UL1TR002378)
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Treatment and Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Keywords
- glycemic variability, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, HbA1c, continuous glucose monitoring, hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, microvascular complications, macrovascular complications, mortality
- MeSH terms
- Blood Glucose, Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Glycated Hemoglobin, Humans, Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-09.
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