Cited by 670Global Cancer Incidence and ScreeningCancer survivorship and careEconomic and Financial Impacts of Cancer

Cancer Survivors in the United States: Prevalence across the Survivorship Trajectory and Implications for Care

Open access
de Moor, Janet S., Mariotto, Angela B., Parry, Carla, Alfano, Catherine M., Padgett, Lynne, Kent, Erin E., Forsythe, Laura, Scoppa, Steve +2 more·2013·Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention

Abstract

Background: Cancer survivors represent a growing population, heterogeneous in their need for medical care, psychosocial support, and practical assistance. To inform survivorship research and practice, this manuscript will describe the prevalent population of cancer survivors in terms of overall numbers and prevalence by cancer site and time since diagnosis. Methods: Incidence and survival data from 1975–2007 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and population projections from the United States Census Bureau. Cancer prevalence for 2012 and beyond was estimated using the Prevalence Incidence Approach Model, assuming constant future incidence and survival trends but dynamic projections of the U.S. population. Results: As of January 1, 2012, approximately 13.7 million cancer survivors were living in the United States with prevalence projected to approach 18 million by 2022. Sixty-four percent of this population have survived 5 years or more; 40% have survived 10 years or more; and 15% have survived 20 years or more after diagnosis. Over the next decade, the number of people who have lived 5 years or more after their cancer diagnosis is projected to increase approximately 37% to 11.9 million. Conclusions: A coordinated agenda for research and practice is needed to address cancer survivors' long-term medical, psychosocial, and practical needs across the survivorship trajectory. Impact: Prevalence estimates for cancer survivors across the survivorship trajectory will inform the national research agenda as well as future projections about the health service needs of this population. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 22(4); 561–70. ©2013 AACR.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-12-1356

Cites

52 of 52 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 15 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    Breast cancer survivors account for 22% of the US cancer survivor population.

    “Women with breast cancer account for 22% of survivors while men with prostate cancer account for 20% of survivors (Figure 2).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The 2012 US cancer survivor count was roughly 3.4 times the 1975 count.

    “which is approximately a 3.4 fold increase compared to 1975.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    On January 1, 2012, about 13.7 million US residents were alive after having been diagnosed with cancer.

    “As of January 1, 2012, approximately 13.7 million cancer survivors were living in the US with prevalence projected to approach 18 million by 2022.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · hedged
      “As of January 1, 2012, there were an estimated 13.7 million people in the US who had been diagnosed with cancer (Table 1), which is approximately a 3.4 fold increase compared to 1975.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Prostate cancer survivors account for 20% of the US cancer survivor population.

    “Women with breast cancer account for 22% of survivors while men with prostate cancer account for 20% of survivors (Figure 2).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    The projected growth in US cancer survivors between 2012 and 2022 is about 4.3 million people.

    “which represents an increase of more than 4 million survivors in 10 years.”
    • Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
      “the absolute number of survivors is projected to increase by approximately 4.3 million survivors over the next 10 years”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Future incidence, mortality, and survival trends remain constant, while US population projections change over time.
  • May combine two claims. 7
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 3
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    By 2022, the US cancer survivor population is projected to reach nearly 18 million, a 31% increase.

    “prevalence projected to approach 18 million by 2022.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “Over the next decade, the number of cancer survivors is projected to increase by 31% to almost 18 million1, which represents an increase of more than 4 million survivors in 10 years.”
    • Also stated in: § Conclusions and Impact · plain
      “The proportion of cancer survivors in the United States is projected to increase 31% by the year 2022.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Future incidence, mortality, and survival trends remain constant, while US population projections change over time.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Over the next decade, the share of US cancer survivors at least 5 years from diagnosis is projected to rise from 64% to 67%, while the share less than 5 years from diagnosis is projected to fall.

    “Over the next decade, the relative proportion of survivors who are ≥5 years from diagnosis will increase from 64% to 67% with a corresponding decrease in the relative proportion of survivors who are <5 years from diagnosis.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Future incidence, mortality, and survival trends remain constant, while US population projections change over time.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation

    This study's prevalence estimates differ somewhat from those used in published calculations of cancer care costs.

    “Our prevalence estimates differ somewhat from estimates used in the calculations of costs of cancer care reported elsewhere (9).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [9] Mariotto, 2011, Projections of the cost of cancer care in the United States: 2010–2020, J Natl Cancer Inst source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The 2008 data year was excluded from the analysis because reporting delay was expected to cause undercounts.

    “The most recent year of available data (2008) was excluded due to anticipated undercounts because of reporting delay.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Because of earlier detection and improved treatment, people live longer after a cancer diagnosis, producing a larger share of long-term survivors.

    “Owing to advances in early detection and cancer treatment, people are living longer after a cancer diagnosis, giving rise to a growing proportion of long term survivors.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The growing cancer survivor population will strain a healthcare system with frequent cancer drug shortages and oncology demand that is expected to exceed oncologist supply.

    “The growing population of cancer survivors will put pressure on a healthcare system in which cancer drug shortages are increasingly common and the demand for oncology services is poised to outpace the supply of oncologists (4–6).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [4] Erikson, 2007, Future supply and demand for oncologists: challenges to assuring access to oncology services, J Oncol Pract source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [5] Chabner, 2011, Drug shortages–a critical challenge for the generic-drug market, N Engl J Med source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [6] Gatesman, 2011, The shortage of essential chemotherapy drugs in the United States, N Engl J Med source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    The proportion of long-term survivors for a given cancer depends on both its 5-year survival rate and its median age at diagnosis, so it tends to be higher for cancers with high 5-year survival and low median age at diagnosis.

    “Generally speaking, the proportion of long-term survivors for a particular cancer is both a function of the 5-year survival rates for that cancer as well as the median age at diagnosis such that the proportion of long terms survivors will be relatively high for cancers with a high 5-year survival rate but a low median age at diagnosis.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Older cancer survivors are more likely than younger survivors to have multiple chronic conditions and poorer physical functioning.

    “older cancer survivors are more likely to have multiple chronic diseases and tend to experience poorer physical functioning than younger survivors (7–8).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [7] Bellizzi, 2008, Cancer survivorship and aging: moving the science forward, Cancer source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [8] Avis, 2008, Cancer survivorship and aging, Cancer source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    With constant future incidence and survival, the number of cancer survivors is underestimated for kidney and melanoma cancers, whose incidence has been rising, and survival is slightly overestimated for cancers with declining recent incidence, such as cervix, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectal, and lung cancers.

    “A study of costs of cancer care [18] shows that using constant future incidence and survival we underestimate the number of cancer survivors for kidney and melanoma cancers, for which incidence has been increasing and slightly overestimate survival for cancer sites that have decreasing incidence in the most recent years, e.g., cervix, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [18] Hewitt, 2006, From cancer patient to cancer survivor, lost in transition

      Not checked in the free run.

9 of 9
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Future incidence, mortality, and survival trends remain constant, while US population projections change over time.

    “assuming constant future incidence and survival trends but dynamic projections of the US population.”
    “projected assuming constant future mortality, incidence, and survival trends, but dynamic projections of the US population.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The SEER-9 areas have lower incidence rates than most other states and differ from the rest of the US population by higher socioeconomic status, greater urbanicity, and more specialty care.

    “The SEER areas had lower incidence rates than most other states and have been found to have higher socioeconomic status, greater urban population, and more specialty care than the rest of the US population.”
2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

6 of the 58 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. Howlader, 2012, SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975–2009 (Vintage 2009 Populations)

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
de Moor, J. S., Mariotto, A. B., Parry, C., Alfano, C. M., Padgett, L., Kent, E. E., Forsythe, L., Scoppa, S., Hachey, M., & Rowland, J. H.
Affiliations
  • Authors' Affiliations: 1Office of Cancer Survivorship, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; 2Surveillance Research Program, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; 3Behavioral Research Program, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; 4Applied Research Program, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; 5Cancer Prevention Fellowship Program, Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; 6Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute, Washington; and 7IMS, Falls Church, Virginia
  • National Institutes of Health (US)
Venue
Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
Published
2013-04-01
Volume
22
Issue
4
Pages
561-570
ISSN
  • 1055-9965 (ISSN-L)
  • 1538-7755
OpenAlex
W2147485520
Cited by
670
References
58
Citations by year
2026: 7 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 48 · 2021: 71 · 2020: 54 · 2019: 55 · 2018: 74 · 2017: 58 · 2016: 64 · 2015: 74 · 2014: 61 · 2013: 14
FWCI
38.01
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
Funders
  • National Institutes of Health (Z99 CA999999)
  • National Cancer Institute (Y99 CA999999)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer survivorship and care
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Financial Impacts of Cancer
Keywords
cancer survivors, cancer prevalence, cancer incidence, population projections, tumor location, psychosocial support, health care needs
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Neoplasms, Registries, United States, Incidence, Prevalence, Survival Rate, Survivors, Patient-Centered Care, Young Adult

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